The Investment Thread (1 Viewer)

[efil4stnias]

Listening to CNBC this morning, it seems like trepidation over the Delta, and the general rise in numbers, seems to be the biggest factor.. which is weird to me, since the height of Covid in 2020 saw one of the biggest bull markets in history..


Also interestingly , at least to me- is that TSLA is actually slightly *up* today.

its a pull back on Delta fears sprinkled with some inflationary pressures. ( since that will not abate til 2022 )

stair stepping its way up ( the indexes - or indicies for you Latin speakers out there lol )

may present some buying opportunities if this week turns out to be a bad one. And all this in the face of some strong earnings reports

 

[Turfie]

I see you Super league gaming.

 

[St. Geezy]

AMC and GME are running hard this afternoon

 

[B4YOU]

Mortgage refinance fee dropped by regulator, lowering costs for borrowers

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are dropping a fee on mortgage refinances that was instituted during the pandemic.

www.cnbc.com

I think this is the point I cash out refi. I’m seeing 30-yr 2.65% for no fees lowering my PI by $150 or $40k cash out for 2.75% for no fees on Bankrate. I refinanced May 2020 dropping my payment by $200 with a 12mo break even.

I bought RKT at 16.83 this morning. We’ve seen 2 months of articles about falling mortgage demand. This refinance fee cut is going to lower rates and demand will pick up. People are flush with cash so I can see people eating fee costs to lock a super low rate.

“As mortgage rates drop, the demand for refinances is surging. Total mortgage refinance applications increased 20% over the previous week, according to the latest Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).”

Demand for mortgage refinances surges as rates drop: Here’s how to get yours

As mortgage rates continue to drop to near all-time lows, homeowners are rushing to refinance their home loans. Here's how lower interest rates could affect your monthly payment.

www.google.com

 

[Turfie]

AMC and GME are running hard this afternoon

Very nice day. I wonder if this the start of a nice run or if the shorts tighten it up again.

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

Very nice day. I wonder if this the start of a nice run or if the shorts tighten it up again.

There are countless television networks and websites devoted to this very question… Lemme know if you figure it out.

 

[Turfie]

There are countless television networks and websites devoted to this very question… Lemme know if you figure it out.

I honestly trust an internet guy who follows this stuff more than the media. Almost every media outlet blamed yesterday’s drop on Covid concerns. Crazy how 24 hours later things rebound and Covid is no longer a concern.

 

[St. Geezy]

I honestly trust an internet guy who follows this stuff more than the media. Almost every media outlet blamed yesterday’s drop on Covid concerns. Crazy how 24 hours later things rebound and Covid is no longer a concern.

Setting up the fake narrative for why the market crashes soon rather than taking ownership in the over-leveraged margin situation.

 

[Turfie]

Setting up the fake narrative for why the market crashes soon rather than taking ownership in the over-leveraged margin situation.

Then a little lag....

I absolutely think it’s margin related and had nothing to do with Covid.

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

I dont know yall, i have a feeling that the fricktards who refuse to get vaccinated are about to cause another surge/wave/whatever you want to call it, and in the process bring the economy down with them…. Granted, it’s simply a ‘feeling’ right now, based on what we are anecdotally seeing (but also what health officials and science are telling us)…. And i most certainly hope that i am wrong.

 

[DaveXA]

I dont know yall, i have a feeling that the fricktards who refuse to get vaccinated are about to cause another surge/wave/whatever you want to call it, and in the process bring the economy down with them…. Granted, it’s simply a ‘feeling’ right now, based on what we are anecdotally seeing (but also what health officials and science are telling us)…. And i most certainly hope that i am wrong.

I think it's gonna be some volatile, choppy trading, which will go sideways until we get a better handle on this thing.

 

[B4YOU]

I dont know yall, i have a feeling that the fricktards who refuse to get vaccinated are about to cause another surge/wave/whatever you want to call it, and in the process bring the economy down with them…. Granted, it’s simply a ‘feeling’ right now, based on what we are anecdotally seeing (but also what health officials and science are telling us)…. And i most certainly hope that i am wrong.

I’m not worried about US rates. It’s vaccination rates for trade partners in SEA and India that are worrisome. Or the willingness of EU to lockdown. The states with low vaccination rate have low appetites for restrictions. The states with high rates won’t need to. The economy is rarely slowed by the unnecessary deaths of thousands of US citizens, hundred thousand of South Americans, or millions of Africans.

US 12 and under make up 14% of the population with 0% of them vaccinated. US 13-18 is probably at 35% vaccinated. When the lower age group is approved and if schools require vaccinations, then we will see vaccinations rates in the high 60 to low 70s by Xmas.

 

[Mr. Blue Sky]

I’m not worried about US rates. It’s vaccination rates for trade partners in SEA and India that are worrisome. Or the willingness of EU to lockdown. The states with low vaccination rate have low appetites for restrictions. The states with high rates won’t need to. The economy is rarely slowed by the unnecessary deaths of thousands of US citizens, hundred thousand of South Americans, or millions of Africans.

US 12 and under make up 14% of the population with 0% of them vaccinated. US 13-18 is probably at 35% vaccinated. When the lower age group is approved and if schools require vaccinations, then we will see vaccinations rates in the high 60 to low 70s by Xmas.

Hope you’re right.


I saw yesterday that the total percentage of US citizens (who are eligible to be vaccinated) who are fully vaccinated stands at a tick under 49%…. Which means that over half the country , who are eligible, have chosen not to get vaxxed… We can obviously go more into depth on this on one of the other Covid-related threads here on the EE and on the Political board as well- But i just think the fact that roughly (over) half of eligible folks haven’t gotten the jab(s) portends badly for the economy…. Again, i hope youre right, and I’m wrong.

 

[Tapxe]

Hope you’re right.


I saw yesterday that the total percentage of US citizens (who are eligible to be vaccinated) who are fully vaccinated stands at a tick under 49%…. Which means that over half the country , who are eligible, have chosen not to get vaxxed… We can obviously go more into depth on this on one of the other Covid-related threads here on the EE and on the Political board as well- But i just think the fact that roughly (over) half of eligible folks haven’t gotten the jab(s) portends badly for the economy…. Again, i hope youre right, and I’m wrong.

Been thinking about this. The natural tendency would obviously be to view this as negative based on the emotional toll. If you can remove emotion and look at it purely from an economic stance, aren't there boosts from outcomes as generally elderly and unhealthy people are no longer factors? I'm struggling to think of a sector which will not be touched by this rapid reconfiguration. Everything from insurance to taxes to SSI will be impacted and those things lacking emotion will not necessarily be negatively impacted.

I'd guess someone has run those numbers.

 

[B4YOU]

Hope you’re right.


I saw yesterday that the total percentage of US citizens (who are eligible to be vaccinated) who are fully vaccinated stands at a tick under 49%…. Which means that over half the country , who are eligible, have chosen not to get vaxxed… We can obviously go more into depth on this on one of the other Covid-related threads here on the EE and on the Political board as well- But i just think the fact that roughly (over) half of eligible folks haven’t gotten the jab(s) portends badly for the economy…. Again, i hope youre right, and I’m wrong.

We will know in a few weeks. The 48.8 number is fully vaccinated for total population. See CDC . For 18 and older 68.4% have gotten at least one dose in the US.

It’s places outside the US that have me somewhat worried. I’m more concerned with inflation and housing values up so much yoy.