The Investment Thread

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efil4stnias said:
I called my FA around 1230. Back in November I moved into defense stocks. Upon the complete 180 turn, I reached out today to sell those stocks.
Then went into "where to go" with him. He literally said "not sure yet".

I think we are in the first phase of lowering wealth for middle class Americans. There is a consolidation happening and we aren't inside that circle.

The crypto pump and dump yesterday was entirely too transparent.

I am truly concerned about how bad its going to get before we see upside.
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Stocks are crashing today, gold and crypto too. Dollar is on 4 month lows. Literally nowhere to go.

Some people are making a case for the Yen as a safehaven.
 
I lucked out, sold my stocks and Moved all my $ into my savings acct a couple weeks ago. It’ll sit there a while now.
 
bclemms said:
Stocks are crashing today, gold and crypto too. Dollar is on 4 month lows. Literally nowhere to go.

Some people are making a case for the Yen as a safehaven.
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i have lost 10% of my investments in just under 45 days.

My FA on vacation from last Tues thru tomorrow. LOL my timing is absolutely horrible when it comes to market stuff.

Im def gonna be looking at Euro funds/defense funds
 
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My little side quest with GROV is holding up surprisingly well. Earnings tomorrow and it will probably tank. I just can’t get myself to sell a company that makes bamboo toilet paper
 
Welp off phone with FA- ( returned today )

Said we usually see a 5% correction 2-3x a year
a 10% correction 1x a year

We hadnt had in 2 years- either

Said we are in the 10% correction territory now ( 8.8 % on S & P while we spoke )

Said thinks markets are starting to "bake in" recession fears. Also said April 10 is GDP day, along with April 1 being 1stQ results. If GDP negative or stagnant, watch out.

We are gonna meet later in week to start re-balancing - getting out of airlines and travel/leisure type stocks - build up a war chest of cash and also look at consumer staples to invest in.

my hope at this point is to eek out 3-5% returns y/y until we get clarity. Said the MAIN issue is the uncertainty coming from WH. No one there knows crap about economy.
 
efil4stnias said:
Welp off phone with FA- ( returned today )

Said we usually see a 5% correction 2-3x a year
a 10% correction 1x a year

We hadnt had in 2 years- either

Said we are in the 10% correction territory now ( 8.8 % on S & P while we spoke )

Said thinks markets are starting to "bake in" recession fears. Also said April 10 is GDP day, along with April 1 being 1stQ results. If GDP negative or stagnant, watch out.

We are gonna meet later in week to start re-balancing - getting out of airlines and travel/leisure type stocks - build up a war chest of cash and also look at consumer staples to invest in.

my hope at this point is to eek out 3-5% returns y/y until we get clarity. Said the MAIN issue is the uncertainty coming from WH. No one there knows crap about economy.
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I'm really glad I sold off what I did a little while back. Between my cash and my two rolling high interest CDs in my IRA, I probably have close to 8% of my portfolio in Cash.

Watching AMZN drop like 40-50/share in the last month has been hard. It's been a 15% drop in the last month. APPL is down almost 8% in the last 10 days. Boeing is down 18% in the last month, almost all of it in the last 10 days.
 
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efil4stnias said:
Welp off phone with FA- ( returned today )

Said we usually see a 5% correction 2-3x a year
a 10% correction 1x a year

We hadnt had in 2 years- either

Said we are in the 10% correction territory now ( 8.8 % on S & P while we spoke )

Said thinks markets are starting to "bake in" recession fears. Also said April 10 is GDP day, along with April 1 being 1stQ results. If GDP negative or stagnant, watch out.

We are gonna meet later in week to start re-balancing - getting out of airlines and travel/leisure type stocks - build up a war chest of cash and also look at consumer staples to invest in.

my hope at this point is to eek out 3-5% returns y/y until we get clarity. Said the MAIN issue is the uncertainty coming from WH. No one there knows crap about economy.
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But if the market has already baked in stuff, wouldn't now be the worst time to sell?
 
Consigliere said:
But if the market has already baked in stuff, wouldn't now be the worst time to sell?
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Depends on what you are selling.

For instance, i have a bunch of SW Airlines stock. Eventho a "recession chance" is baked in, that may only account for 5% reduction. NOW.

If a recession hits say Q3, the prolonged effect on travel, will transfer to a prolonged negative effect on SW, driving price even lower over a longer period of time.

So while SW may be say $40/share today- down from $44 just 2 days ago, 8 months from now it may be treading water at $25/share. ( i made those numbers up to illustrate )

So the trick is to find the "safe haven" - ( like my FA said - "consumer staples" - stuff folks will continue to buy even in a recession ) but there is so much uncertainty, nothing really looks like safe haven atm. But cant look at today- gotta try and predict 6-12 mo from now.

also depends on where ( stock price ) you bought a specific security.

I have a lot of tech- one example is MSFT. I have a good bit that i bought so many years ago at $62/share. It was at $440/share, now around $380/share. Lost $60/share but still waaaaaaaay up from when i bought. So while im giving some back, im selling in prediction that it will drop even well past $350/share, maintaining as much profit taking as i can, in hopes that it drops well below selling price for me to load back up on it when i think it his a floor.

FTR, ive tried that 3-4x in my career of investing and trying to "time the market" and ive never really hit the mark. Always seem to sell when the floor is reached lolol.
 
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