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I still struggle to buy into that. Bo Nix had fantastic production, was younger, had good tools to work with, and generally viewed as a top 40 prospect in a historically good draft class for QB's (and offensive players overall). Also really no injury concerns either. JJ McCarthy was always going to be a top 20 pick imo.
Bo Nix Quarterback Oregon | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report
Rating: 87.4 Rank: #6 Forty: 4.75 Bo Nix entered the collegiate ranks with sky-high expectations, securing the SEC Freshman of the Year in 2019 and was heralded as a five-star recruit...www.nfldraftbuzz.com
Tyler Shough Quarterback Louisville | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report
Rating: 82.3 Rank: #11 Forty: 4.63 The tape shows a quarterback who thrives in structured passing attacks featuring heavy play-action usage. When Shough can plant that back foot and drive...www.nfldraftbuzz.com
Shough despite having decent timed athleticism just looks a bit clumsy to me when running around. He turns 26 later this year. He has 1,000 less snaps than 21 year old QB Jaxson Dart. I don't buy the narrative that I've seen that he's ready to start right away "because of his age". His completion percentage is lower than Jalen Milroe. His adjusted completion percentage is 38th in college football this past season. Despite his ADOT being 9.7 which isn't particularly high.
I just struggle to buy into this idea that he's a late 1st/early 2nd round prospect, which is currently the narrative on him in recent days. In the 3rd/4th round sure, I don't mind seeing the team take a chance on him, but would be very skeptical of the Saints taking him any earlier than that.
I don't think Nix or McCarty were seen as going that high until close the the draft. McCarty wasn't really on anyone's radar as a first round pick until really close to the draft and it took winning a National Championship to get him there. First I heard of the possibility of McCarty going high was when 60Mintues said the Saints really liked him but that he would probably go before they picked. Nix was probably seen as a late first, but nobody thought he was going as high as he did. And all this was driven by the coaches getting involved. In particular, Payton loved Bo Nix. And Nix was small with a relatively weak arm. But what Payton saw is that Nix was deadly accurate on short passes.
As far as Shough, I don't know and I share your concerns about his completion percentage, injuries, and lots of other things, but I heard it first from Underhill that there was a lot of buzz about him going in the 2nd or even late first and now the same stuff is starting to spread with the national media. Could just be smoke, but it could be real. We'll find out in a little over a week. Nick as said that teams don't really care as much about the age thing. They figure he'll have at least 10 good years to play which if he's good for those 10 years then it's well worth the pick.
Also, take it for what it's worth, but Underhill also said that Shough was the Saints' second favorite QB in this draft.