St. PJ
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Growing up in Louisiana, if you wanted to root for a pro sport franchise, the majority of the time, you only had one choice. The Saints were yours, you felt ownership, and next year couldn't come fast enough. After winning the Superbowl, this is maybe the most anticipated "next year". It might have helped if we had a MLB team, or a mainstay NBA team. Hell, I'd even take a hockey team. Something, anything that didn't make the offseason seem so long.
But you know what? I think I'd rather have one team to live and die by, to put all my focus on, than to have grown up in Cleveland and have my heart torn out in just about every major sport every year. You kind of almost have to feel bad for those guys. But I don't. I look at Cleveland, and I wonder what they can do for my Saints.
I never really cared for Eric Mangini. I thought he tried too hard to be something he was not-- a common mistake by almost all Bill Bilicheck disciples. They don't realize they aren't Bill until things get ugly. But Mangini has earned enough respect from me that I no longer put an A at the end of his name. I don't think he has enough to work with, but I believe he gets the most out of what he's got.
Which brings me to the biggest benefit of playing Cleveland. They're no pushover. This is a team that will hit you with everything they've got. And they'll stick around if you give them a chance. Cleveland is 1-5 right now. They've had the lead in the 4th qtr of every gave the lost except for Pittsburg. For a game most prognosticators think we should win by multiple scores, some fans might have trepidation.
I don't. I feel this is the exact kind of team the Saints need to face at this moment. They do not have the firepower to match the Saints score for score or to overcome a deficit. But they have the grit to keep it close if the Saints beat themselves. Cleveland may not be a good team, but they are a TEAM that plays better than the record indicates. So instead of playing someone who poses no threat following an uplifting "get right" win over Tampa and preceding a much anticipated Holloween showdown, the Saints play someone they know they have to be on their P's and Q's to win in a fashion that will build momentum when they need it.
By all appearances, Drew Brees should be able to look like Vintage Drew against the Cleveland secondary. And Chris Ivory should benefit from that. Cleveland isn't known for a pass rush or coverage, but they are pretty stout when its close against the run. So I think there is ZERO chance the offense takes a step back. And our defense will likely do everything in its power to stop the run and take its chances with letting Colt McCoy throw to ???
Cleveland has the ability to keep it close if the Saints beat themselves. Colt McCoy held his own during his first career start versus probably one of the two scariest defenses in the NFL. And Peyton Hillis is just the kind of physical test the Saints defense needs in preparation for Pittsburg. The Saints know what kind of team Cleveland is, and understand they need to execute with precision and play mistake free football. They know they can't look at Cleveland on paper and chalk up a win, because Cleveland plays better than teams like Arizona and Carolina. Cleveland is greater than the sum of all its parts.
So what can the Browns do for us? They will focus the Saints. Two games in a row of good execution gives validation. It builds and reaffirms the confidence that was there already. It gives belief. Belief to new players who weren't part of last years ride. Belief to a staff that is making mad adjustments on the fly. Belief to older players that they can still play and overcome the same kind of adversity they faced last year. Belief to this team that though they aren't the Superbowl team of 2009, if they play like they don't beat themselves, they can be the Superbowl Champions of 2010.
Beating Cleveland won't lift you like beating Pittsburg, but the effort and execution it will take to beat them soundly puts us in prime position to hit Pittsburg confident and firing on all cylinder. With key starters returning to heatlh.
Look for Drew to complete 75% of his passes. Last week, we opened up the passing game with the run. Look for it to be opposite this week, but look for the same results. Ivory won't have 158, but what he won't get Jones will. Only it will come later in the game, after Drew throws for 3 TD's. Look for the Saints defense to bend but don't break. Cleveland will have a few 3 and outs, but they'll also have some dink and dunk drives that result in field goals. My only concern is the return game.
P.S.-- as you will see, the Saints have a top 10 offense AND defense. Guess what? Our defense is ranked higher than our offense. Wow.
Saints 34, Cleveland 13.
Stat Time
Offense
8. Saints-- 368 ypg, 5.7 ypp, 51% 3rd down, 21.7 pts pg, 32:15 TOP, -1 TO
23. Browns-- 306 ypg, 5.1 ypp, 40% 3rd down, 14.7 pts pg, 28:50 TOP, -4 TO
Passing Offense
5. Saints-- 270 ypg, 7.2 ypa, 12 TD, 6 Int, 70.6% completion, 15 20+ yard pass plays, 8 sacks, 97.6 qb rating
20. Browns-- 208 ypg, 6.8 ypa, 6 TD, 8 Int, 62.1% completion, 16 20+ yard pass plays, 13 sacks, 75.1 qb rating
Rushing Offense
21. Saints-- 98 ypg, 4.0 ypc, 2 TD, 4 fumble, 2 20+ yard runs
22. Browns-- 97 ypg, 3.8 ypc, 4 TD, 6 fumble, 4 20+ yard runs
Defense
7. Saints-- 301 ypg, 5.0 ypp, 40% 3rd down, 18 points per game
23. Browns-- 349 ypg, 5.7 ypp, 43% 3rd down, 20.8 points per game
Passing Defense
7. Saints-- 195 ypg, 6.6 ypa, 60.8 % completion, 6 td, 4 int, 15 20+ yard pass plays, 11 sacks, 82.1 qb rating
21. Browns-- 229 ypg, 8.0 ypa, 63.1 % completion, 11 td, 4 int, 19 20+ yard pass plays, 10 sacks, 99.1 qb rating
Rushing Defense
15. Saints-- 106 ypg, 3.9 ypc, 4 td, 2 fumble recovery, 3 20+ yard runs
23. Browns-- 120 ypg, 4.0 ypc, 1 td, 2 fumble recovery, 7 20+ yard runs
Pick-Em
Last Week-- 9 wins, 5 losses
Year to Date-- 56 wins, 34 losses
This Weeks Picks:
Cincinatti over Atlanta-- upset #1. These teams are evenly matched. Cincinatti has been beating themselves. Carson Palmer is the reason. But a bye week helps this team to take a good look in the mirror. And though Palmer lacks the confidence he once had, Matt Ryan makes up for it in over confidence. Atlanta proves they aren't the team they think they are, and Cincinatti proves they are.
Washington over Chicago-- upset #2. It's hard to call this an upset, but Yahoo says the Skins are the underdog. Cutler goes out with a concussion because his offensive line can't pass protect. The next week, his replacement throws 4 picks, and they decide to run the ball and wind up with a dominating performance from Matt Forte. Last week, with a healthy Cutler, yet stil a horrible offensive line, Mike Martz forgets he has a capable running back and throws Cutler to the wolves with all these long developing pass plays and only 5 blockers. Mike Martz is an idiot. Mike Shannahan is not. I don't know how McNabb gets it done with no legit WR's and a stout Chicago run D, but he does.
Phili over Tennesee-- upset #3. I want the Titans to win this game. But I like Kevin Kolb. The Titans should win this, but I think the Eagles pull out a victory because Kolb can spread the ball to different WR's and knows how to use his TE. And I'm just not sold on Tennesse's WR's.
Kansas City over Jacksonville-- how can a team be so jeckyll and Hyde? Jacksonville is an enigma. Kansas City has been very consistant this year. The passing attack doesn't scare you, but they lead the league in rushing. And Jacksonville may be starting Todd Bouman. You know the look on a bad QB has when he screwed up, has no confidence, and is coming off the field? Bouman has that look on his face when he comes on to the field.
Miami over Pittsburg-- Upset Special, upset #4. Pittsburg devotes its attention to Brandon Marshall. Devon Bess has a big day. Miami is stout on defense. Big Ben comes back down to earth. It looked easy against Cleveland. It won't against Miami, and you'll see the effects of that vacation Ben just got back from.
Saints over Cleveland-- see above.
St. Louis over Tampa Bay-- upset #5. I like Sam Bradford. I also like the Rams defense. I also like how well the Rams will be able to run all over the Bucs. That running game gives Bradford the help he needs to overcome Freeman, despite not having anyone to throw it to.
San Francisco over Carolina-- I'm so tempted to take Carolina here, because this is just the kind of game the Niners lose. Matter of fact, I think Carolina will win because Fox pulls those kind of wins out of his, but since I've already picked so many upsets, I'll once again wait to get burned by a bay area team.
Baltimore over Buffalo-- NOT EVEN CLOSE. The route is on by the end of the first quarter. It's not even fair. Chan Gailey, you didn't have much to work with, but you made too many mistakes before the season began.
Seattle over Arizona-- two words- homefield advantage. two more-- Arizona sucks.
Denver over Oakland-- Josh McMoron traded away a ton of talent, but his passing game looks good. Despite losing his pass rush before the season began, his team plays tough. Oakland is Oakland. I see no logic supporting an Oakland win, other than this is the exact time they win-- win you think they shouldn't. But everytime I pick an Oakland game, the opposite happens.
New England over San Diego-- upset #6. I don't know why Yahoo has the Pats listed as the underdog. Yeah, San Diego is undefeated at home. But they are missing just about every playmaker on offense, and despite having the top ranked offense AND defense, they are 2-4. This is where AJ Smith's ego finally catches up to him. The Patriots are the better coached team, and they are executing.
Minnesota over Green Bay-- upset #7. This is a very tough game for me to pick. I actually want Green Bay to win. I'm just not sold on how they can do it without good pass protection, without a legit running game, and without half of their targets in the passing game. And sooner or later Minnesota's offense will click and they'll find that balance, I think. I want to take the better coach and the better QB, but I think this is the game where Moss opens everything up for Shianco and Harvin and Peterson. And Farve has never lost to Dom Capers defense.
Dallas over New York Giants-- how the Cowboys are the favorites, I don't know. This should qualify as an upset if you ask me. While the Giants are looking kind of dominant, I think after being thouroughly embarassed, Dallas has too much talent to not man up and play mad. This is the game where Dallas finds their running game and Romo stops making mistakes. :throwup:
But you know what? I think I'd rather have one team to live and die by, to put all my focus on, than to have grown up in Cleveland and have my heart torn out in just about every major sport every year. You kind of almost have to feel bad for those guys. But I don't. I look at Cleveland, and I wonder what they can do for my Saints.
I never really cared for Eric Mangini. I thought he tried too hard to be something he was not-- a common mistake by almost all Bill Bilicheck disciples. They don't realize they aren't Bill until things get ugly. But Mangini has earned enough respect from me that I no longer put an A at the end of his name. I don't think he has enough to work with, but I believe he gets the most out of what he's got.
Which brings me to the biggest benefit of playing Cleveland. They're no pushover. This is a team that will hit you with everything they've got. And they'll stick around if you give them a chance. Cleveland is 1-5 right now. They've had the lead in the 4th qtr of every gave the lost except for Pittsburg. For a game most prognosticators think we should win by multiple scores, some fans might have trepidation.
I don't. I feel this is the exact kind of team the Saints need to face at this moment. They do not have the firepower to match the Saints score for score or to overcome a deficit. But they have the grit to keep it close if the Saints beat themselves. Cleveland may not be a good team, but they are a TEAM that plays better than the record indicates. So instead of playing someone who poses no threat following an uplifting "get right" win over Tampa and preceding a much anticipated Holloween showdown, the Saints play someone they know they have to be on their P's and Q's to win in a fashion that will build momentum when they need it.
By all appearances, Drew Brees should be able to look like Vintage Drew against the Cleveland secondary. And Chris Ivory should benefit from that. Cleveland isn't known for a pass rush or coverage, but they are pretty stout when its close against the run. So I think there is ZERO chance the offense takes a step back. And our defense will likely do everything in its power to stop the run and take its chances with letting Colt McCoy throw to ???
Cleveland has the ability to keep it close if the Saints beat themselves. Colt McCoy held his own during his first career start versus probably one of the two scariest defenses in the NFL. And Peyton Hillis is just the kind of physical test the Saints defense needs in preparation for Pittsburg. The Saints know what kind of team Cleveland is, and understand they need to execute with precision and play mistake free football. They know they can't look at Cleveland on paper and chalk up a win, because Cleveland plays better than teams like Arizona and Carolina. Cleveland is greater than the sum of all its parts.
So what can the Browns do for us? They will focus the Saints. Two games in a row of good execution gives validation. It builds and reaffirms the confidence that was there already. It gives belief. Belief to new players who weren't part of last years ride. Belief to a staff that is making mad adjustments on the fly. Belief to older players that they can still play and overcome the same kind of adversity they faced last year. Belief to this team that though they aren't the Superbowl team of 2009, if they play like they don't beat themselves, they can be the Superbowl Champions of 2010.
Beating Cleveland won't lift you like beating Pittsburg, but the effort and execution it will take to beat them soundly puts us in prime position to hit Pittsburg confident and firing on all cylinder. With key starters returning to heatlh.
Look for Drew to complete 75% of his passes. Last week, we opened up the passing game with the run. Look for it to be opposite this week, but look for the same results. Ivory won't have 158, but what he won't get Jones will. Only it will come later in the game, after Drew throws for 3 TD's. Look for the Saints defense to bend but don't break. Cleveland will have a few 3 and outs, but they'll also have some dink and dunk drives that result in field goals. My only concern is the return game.
P.S.-- as you will see, the Saints have a top 10 offense AND defense. Guess what? Our defense is ranked higher than our offense. Wow.
Saints 34, Cleveland 13.
Stat Time
Offense
8. Saints-- 368 ypg, 5.7 ypp, 51% 3rd down, 21.7 pts pg, 32:15 TOP, -1 TO
23. Browns-- 306 ypg, 5.1 ypp, 40% 3rd down, 14.7 pts pg, 28:50 TOP, -4 TO
Passing Offense
5. Saints-- 270 ypg, 7.2 ypa, 12 TD, 6 Int, 70.6% completion, 15 20+ yard pass plays, 8 sacks, 97.6 qb rating
20. Browns-- 208 ypg, 6.8 ypa, 6 TD, 8 Int, 62.1% completion, 16 20+ yard pass plays, 13 sacks, 75.1 qb rating
Rushing Offense
21. Saints-- 98 ypg, 4.0 ypc, 2 TD, 4 fumble, 2 20+ yard runs
22. Browns-- 97 ypg, 3.8 ypc, 4 TD, 6 fumble, 4 20+ yard runs
Defense
7. Saints-- 301 ypg, 5.0 ypp, 40% 3rd down, 18 points per game
23. Browns-- 349 ypg, 5.7 ypp, 43% 3rd down, 20.8 points per game
Passing Defense
7. Saints-- 195 ypg, 6.6 ypa, 60.8 % completion, 6 td, 4 int, 15 20+ yard pass plays, 11 sacks, 82.1 qb rating
21. Browns-- 229 ypg, 8.0 ypa, 63.1 % completion, 11 td, 4 int, 19 20+ yard pass plays, 10 sacks, 99.1 qb rating
Rushing Defense
15. Saints-- 106 ypg, 3.9 ypc, 4 td, 2 fumble recovery, 3 20+ yard runs
23. Browns-- 120 ypg, 4.0 ypc, 1 td, 2 fumble recovery, 7 20+ yard runs
Pick-Em
Last Week-- 9 wins, 5 losses
Year to Date-- 56 wins, 34 losses
This Weeks Picks:
Cincinatti over Atlanta-- upset #1. These teams are evenly matched. Cincinatti has been beating themselves. Carson Palmer is the reason. But a bye week helps this team to take a good look in the mirror. And though Palmer lacks the confidence he once had, Matt Ryan makes up for it in over confidence. Atlanta proves they aren't the team they think they are, and Cincinatti proves they are.
Washington over Chicago-- upset #2. It's hard to call this an upset, but Yahoo says the Skins are the underdog. Cutler goes out with a concussion because his offensive line can't pass protect. The next week, his replacement throws 4 picks, and they decide to run the ball and wind up with a dominating performance from Matt Forte. Last week, with a healthy Cutler, yet stil a horrible offensive line, Mike Martz forgets he has a capable running back and throws Cutler to the wolves with all these long developing pass plays and only 5 blockers. Mike Martz is an idiot. Mike Shannahan is not. I don't know how McNabb gets it done with no legit WR's and a stout Chicago run D, but he does.
Phili over Tennesee-- upset #3. I want the Titans to win this game. But I like Kevin Kolb. The Titans should win this, but I think the Eagles pull out a victory because Kolb can spread the ball to different WR's and knows how to use his TE. And I'm just not sold on Tennesse's WR's.
Kansas City over Jacksonville-- how can a team be so jeckyll and Hyde? Jacksonville is an enigma. Kansas City has been very consistant this year. The passing attack doesn't scare you, but they lead the league in rushing. And Jacksonville may be starting Todd Bouman. You know the look on a bad QB has when he screwed up, has no confidence, and is coming off the field? Bouman has that look on his face when he comes on to the field.
Miami over Pittsburg-- Upset Special, upset #4. Pittsburg devotes its attention to Brandon Marshall. Devon Bess has a big day. Miami is stout on defense. Big Ben comes back down to earth. It looked easy against Cleveland. It won't against Miami, and you'll see the effects of that vacation Ben just got back from.
Saints over Cleveland-- see above.
St. Louis over Tampa Bay-- upset #5. I like Sam Bradford. I also like the Rams defense. I also like how well the Rams will be able to run all over the Bucs. That running game gives Bradford the help he needs to overcome Freeman, despite not having anyone to throw it to.
San Francisco over Carolina-- I'm so tempted to take Carolina here, because this is just the kind of game the Niners lose. Matter of fact, I think Carolina will win because Fox pulls those kind of wins out of his, but since I've already picked so many upsets, I'll once again wait to get burned by a bay area team.
Baltimore over Buffalo-- NOT EVEN CLOSE. The route is on by the end of the first quarter. It's not even fair. Chan Gailey, you didn't have much to work with, but you made too many mistakes before the season began.
Seattle over Arizona-- two words- homefield advantage. two more-- Arizona sucks.
Denver over Oakland-- Josh McMoron traded away a ton of talent, but his passing game looks good. Despite losing his pass rush before the season began, his team plays tough. Oakland is Oakland. I see no logic supporting an Oakland win, other than this is the exact time they win-- win you think they shouldn't. But everytime I pick an Oakland game, the opposite happens.
New England over San Diego-- upset #6. I don't know why Yahoo has the Pats listed as the underdog. Yeah, San Diego is undefeated at home. But they are missing just about every playmaker on offense, and despite having the top ranked offense AND defense, they are 2-4. This is where AJ Smith's ego finally catches up to him. The Patriots are the better coached team, and they are executing.
Minnesota over Green Bay-- upset #7. This is a very tough game for me to pick. I actually want Green Bay to win. I'm just not sold on how they can do it without good pass protection, without a legit running game, and without half of their targets in the passing game. And sooner or later Minnesota's offense will click and they'll find that balance, I think. I want to take the better coach and the better QB, but I think this is the game where Moss opens everything up for Shianco and Harvin and Peterson. And Farve has never lost to Dom Capers defense.
Dallas over New York Giants-- how the Cowboys are the favorites, I don't know. This should qualify as an upset if you ask me. While the Giants are looking kind of dominant, I think after being thouroughly embarassed, Dallas has too much talent to not man up and play mad. This is the game where Dallas finds their running game and Romo stops making mistakes. :throwup:
