COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (6 Viewers)

[bclemms]

Why would Shreveport and Alexandria (and to a lesser extent, Baton Rouge and the Northshore) have a greater risk than New Orleans?

Average temperatures. New Orleans doesn't get as cold at night and gets warmer during the day than all of the above due to coastal influences from the gulf and Lake Ponchatrain. It's close though, we've done several different versions of it and put New Orleans in the high risk area in 2 of them. If it were a 14 day map then we would have put New Orleans in since New Orleans temps are quite conducive right now and the climotological mean is conducive right now. Problem is, when you start getting into March the forecast temps and the Climotological norms climb quite a bit more than areas just to the north.

Also, I realize I open myself up to criticism and questions posting that so feel free to fire away.

I feel really good about the data, we saw a link based on the 5 areas experiencing major outbreak and dug through 4 months of meteorological and climatologica data, some very hard to find to come up with it. I'm stunned that nobody else has publicly done it given that viruses tend to have a tolerant temperature range, many are seasonal and many take very similar routes as they expand. You also can't get human spread without people and there is a very strong scientific connection to population density and rapid spread. Finally, virus move as people move so proximity to and common travel routes through infected areas increase the chance of spread. We just tried to compile all this data into a forecast and map. We will get some areas right. We will get some areas wrong. I just felt the correlations are too similar to not put it out there publicly. If we're on to something then it's very useful. If we're not, then we wasted a ton of time but at least I know the average temperature in February of Bizerte, Tunisia.

 

[James Spader]

I've searched this entire thread. James Spader linked to the same Bloomberg article Sunday. That's been it.

I apologize for picking a nit. But if we're going to posit that this virus can spread via unusual means, we need firmer support for the proposition.

Post anything is my book, you never when we will need to come back to it. I will do some more research to find some additional info.

 

[RazorOye]

There's tons of stuff still up here. Masks at most stores - grabbed two packs of 10 at Lowes and stores around here have dozens more. Lower grade masks, too. Water and canned goods and everything.

Went to Walmart and got a couple hundred bucks in canned goods of different varieties and couple cases of water and rice and beans - canned and dry. We have a pantry with a lot of boxed food and canned goods already. We have an upright freezer totally full of meats that have been vaccuum packed.

Also got a few boxes of children's Advil and Tylenol. We go through those like crazy anyway. Adult pills too.

Next time we hit the store up here for weekend shopping, we'll get some more canned goods and a couple more cases of water. Each time we go to the store, just get a bit more.

Bleach and lysol wipes and lysol washing sanitizer.

We're pretty good about practicing hygiene of hand washing here and using wipes and bleach for door handles and such. Keeping the kids fingers out of their noses seems to be our biggest battle.

If yall see anything missing off my list, let me know.

 

[bclemms]

If yall see anything missing off my list, let me know.

#MAGA gear.

 

[RazorOye]

#MAGA gear.

done and dusted

 

[SaintRob]

Also, I realize I open myself up to criticism and questions posting that so feel free to fire away.

It certainly wasn't criticism. It was curiosity. I thought it may have something to do with military bases. At the same time with the airport in New Orleans, I thought that would increase the risk more. Thanks for the clarification.

 

[DaveXA]

#MAGA gear.

This will definitely fight off the virus. It's science!

 

[Tapxe]

For anyone still looking for a mask, I found https://www.rockler.com/gvs-elipse-p100-half-mask-respirators.

These should be good to stop 99.97% of particulates and have a decent life expectancy for use. Most of all, they are available and not overly expensive compared to the gouging that seems to be going on. Might not be for everyone, but I've been planning to start some woodworking and these are good for that as well so ran with it.

I'm not entirely clear on the life expectancy of the filters though. I read somewhere they are good for up to 30 days, but couldn't find anything specific to these.

 

[bclemms]

It certainly wasn't criticism. It was curiosity. I thought it may have something to do with military bases. At the same time with the airport in New Orleans, I thought that would increase the risk more. Thanks for the clarification.

I wasn't referring to you specifically, others may want to be critics and I'm wide open to it.

Yeah, we thought about the international airport but it only has a few flights to Europe. We also considered Mardi Gras which is a virus' paradise. So we basically think New Orleans is in the high risk category this week and if spread was already occuring then it could be problematic. As you get into mid March New Orleans climbs well out the temp range we are seeing. Just the opposite for some of the areas farther north, they are currently below the mean temperature range but will be climbing into that range in the next couple weeks. There, the virus would have more time to establish and run through an area. Still, New Orleans is in the moderate risk area and right on the high risk area.

Areas with coastal influences are a lot harder. Cities/regions with coastal influences and terrain influences like the West Coast is even more dificult. Santa Barbara pinged as an ideal city for spread over a long period due to temps but LA is at the high end of the range. Could even see areas around San Fransisco right along the coast have problems but only limited spread a few miles inland.

 

[superchuck500]

Germany is seeing a significant jump in cases today. It looks like the Italian outbreak expanding into continental Europe.

 

[Eeyore]

THIS IS EXPIRIMENTAL, way too many variables exist and only time will verify if it is good or garbage. So far the forecast we put together is going surprisingly well in Europe but it is still very early. This map is something we did based off of climatology, weather forecast data, population density, travel frequency, travel routes. It is for risk of person to person spread only, not importing single cases from travel.

I choose to ignore your awesome chart because it puts my location in a very high risk area.

 

[Tapxe]

I choose to ignore your awesome chart because it puts my location in a very high risk area.

 

[Eeyore]

I wonder how this "self-quarantine" thing is going to play out when employers tell people to get to work or lose their jobs?

 

[DaveXA]

I wonder how this "self-quarantine" thing is going to play out when employers tell people to get to work or lose their jobs?

If the company wants a bunch of sick people working for them, go ahead. When an employee catches it and dies, then watch how fast a wrongful death and civil suit gets thrown at them.

It would be monumentally stupid for a company to give them that choice.

 

[superchuck500]

I wonder how this "self-quarantine" thing is going to play out when employers tell people to get to work or lose their jobs?

That would be idiotic - but I’m sure it might happen. It would be far more sensible to just go ahead and fire the person. Inviting them back to potentially infect your workplace is moronic.