Put me in the QB change camp (1 Viewer)

[BayouSAINTJoe]

I only recall speculation about what Carmichael was going to do but haven’t been able to find reports backing this. You got anything?

Nothing concrete but the faint memory of me thinking back then the only reason why Pete came back was because of the threat of working for an idiot...it might've been speculation of potentially interviewing Kiffin. Take it with a grain of salt...this is coming from a guy who can never find his keys and cellphone.

 

[lapaz]

The fact that Tampa Bay went from 7-9 under Winston in 2019 to winning the Super Bowl the next year with Tom Brady concerns me. Their roster was almost identical, and the scheme was almost the same, but a far better QB made everyone look better.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

The fact that Tampa Bay went from 7-9 under Winston in 2019 to winning the Super Bowl the next year with Tom Brady concerns me. Their roster was almost identical, and the scheme was almost the same, but a far better QB made everyone look better.

That's not really saying much. We would have won the SB in 2019 had Brady been our QB.

 

[jahsoul357]

The fact that Tampa Bay went from 7-9 under Winston in 2019 to winning the Super Bowl the next year with Tom Brady concerns me. Their roster was almost identical, and the scheme was almost the same, but a far better QB made everyone look better.

I thought that these talking points were already thoroughly debunked.

Their roster wasn't nearly identical, with them add 4 key players on offense 1 MAJOR player on special teams (Succop is the real MVP), and a key player in their secondary (2nd place DROTY). And if we are being real, their defense was the reason for their Super Bowl. That's why Bowles got paid.

And they didn't run the same scheme. Brady ran a scaled down version of Arians' offense with NE influence. They had a losing record against teams with winning records with Brady throwing multiple interceptions in those games. After the bye, they dumped Arians complex route trees/options and the next season, they went full fledge dink and dunk..lol.

 

[inetnawlins]

Contrary to popular opinion, we have a QB that has a career completion rate of 60% for intermediate passes (and this is with throwing that pass more than anyone since coming into the league) and through 2 games this season (waiting for SIS Datahub to update), is the most accurate passer in those passes. We have a RB that can line up at WR and take a dump off to the house and we have a receiver core that can attack the intermediate area (GCM and Juice) and deep (Olave, Harty, and TQS when healthy..lol. I tried to tell folks that TQS strength has always been being a deep threat but that's another topic). Jameis is making his mistakes, for sure, but coaching is limiting this offense.

Sorry just not buying what you are selling.

 

[IceHot]

I don't think Dalton is the answer (Chicago and Dallas did happen) but Jameis is not doing anything to help at this point. I don't blame him for today's loss but he's not helping the situation. I think the coaching staff is a real concern, we're not ready.

The answer to what? Beating a team that was previously 0-12?

 

[StudioSaint]

All I'm saying is when you look at the numbers and then look at film, we ran a vertical offense.

It seems the only thing we disagree on is if Payton placed more emphasis on scheming eligible receivers open in the short range, than he did in the deep range.

Let's just disagree on that and get to the heart of the matter. This is what I think you have been claiming.

You claim that the Saints switched to a short, horizontal offense to accommodate Brees' declining arm strength at the end of his career. You call that more of a West Coast Offense.

You claim that the Saints are running that offense with Winston and it's why he is struggling.

You claim that the Saints ran a vertical offense early in Brees career. You call that more of an Air Coryell offense.

You claim that if the Saints ran that more vertical, Air Coryell like offense, then Winston would be playing better.

Am I accurately hearing what you're claiming? Also, are you just stating your opinion or are you claiming these things to be facts?

 

[StudioSaint]

He didn't want to be OC anymore either...he wanted to fallback to a backoffice analyst role. He didn't jump at the OC role until we interviewed Lane Kiffin for OC.

Do you have a credible news source for that?

ETA I see you have already said you do not have a source. That you're just working off a a vague memory and that we should take your claim with a grain of salt.

When you know all of those things about something you're about to post, it might be best not to post what appears to be a statement of absolute fact. Let us know upfront all the reasons to take what you posted with grain of salt.

That way you want get several posters asking you for your source.

 

[Groovepro]

When talking about playcalling and Carmichael, if it was truly the main reason for our struggles, guys wouldn't be consistently open. JW has missed a high percentage of open reads. If the playcalling was so vanilla and easily diagnosed by the defense, said options wouldn't be open and missed. He isn't diagnosing the play and working within the system. He seems to throw to the guy he sees open or tries to force it, often leaving better options and YAC on the field.

His adjusted completion % is a over 5% less than actual completion %. This shows adjustment by the receivers to errant throws.

There is talk about more shotgun, we ran a lot of shotgun against Carolina. There has been talk of no vertical or seams to stretch. We have had many vertical (especially twin verts) called and seams and most seams have been missed wide open. We are averaging 5.5 yds per rush. We end up abandoning the run due to being behind and in passing downs.

A QB can make the O-Line look worse than is. When defenses try to stop the run and pressure the QB, the QB has to be able to diagnose and feel where that pressure is coming. He has struggled with that all season. The biggest is diagnosing blitzes. Sometimes, a blitz is what it is and the guy will be free. Happens every game in the NFL, but has to be known and/or felt by the QB and adjusted in play. Injured or not, diagnosing plays pre-snap and post-snap still is an issue and not physical. A consistent great read and bad pass is physical...bad read leaving best options on field or bad decision is mental. He is mid pack in time to throw. If you are pressured that much as many present and a turnstile on the O-Line, you don't have 2.76 seconds to throw avg.

Winston's play has a trickle down effect on the O-Line, defensive schemes against us and our own offensive play calling. It has trickle down to O-line assignments, trust, mental errors, communication, etc. Many top pundits have pointed more to his play at QB as more issue than play calling. He had some nice throws at times against Carolina, but when the heat is on, he hasn't been able to produce. He is making it harder for the entire offense to execute. In my coaching I always point out that it shouldn't feel like are having to be Superman every play. It should be easy and almost boring when executing properly. I can see Carmichael just getting certain things set up, then something happens, making the set up a moot point.

I DO think there needs to be more drastic and quicker offensive adjustments made from our staff in game and in play calling, but when down, situational football steps in and we are painted into a corner play calling wise.

If they roll with him in London, it should be the decisive game...and not bad defense and miracle catches. He has to make better decisions on his own...not street ball and luck. If he can't put a game on his shoulders and make those around him better, gotta sit him. We can't keep relying on locker room favoritism and POTENTIAL.

 

[jahsoul357]

Sorry just not buying what you are selling.

Not selling anything, as everything that I stated can be verified through film, advanced stats, and metrics. I'm not an "opinion" type of guy.

 

[Big_L]

Sorry just not buying what you are selling.

Prove him wrong then.

 

[No2DC]

Do you have a credible news source for that?

ETA I see you have already said you do not have a source. That you're just working off a a vague memory and that we should take your claim with a grain of salt.

When you know all of those things about something you're about to post, it might be best not to post what appears to be a statement of absolute fact. Let us know upfront all the reasons to take what you posted with grain of salt.

That way you want get several posters asking you for your source.

The whole coach selection process was somewhat vague because from the outside it seemed Pete did not want the job. However, I do not know if that was because the had to go through the mandatory sham interviews with other candidates as they did with DA. I believe Nick reported that Pete was on the fence, but he was just reporting the mood in the building.

 

[StudioSaint]

Prove him wrong then.

It's okay for people to have different opinions on what film, advanced stats, and metrics show. Basing an opinion on an interpretation of film, advanced stats, and metrics doesn't make an opinion a fact. It's still just an opinion.

Film, advanced stats, and metrics don't objectively prove anything. People draw different conclusions from them and there's no way for anyone to objectively prove their conclusions are more right than anyone else's.

Game film catches several instances of Brees' true form of a grey alien being revealed for a split second. If you go back and watch all the film, you'll see it.

Prove me wrong. If you don't prove me wrong, then it's true, right?

Of course that claim is absurd, but no more absurd than thinking that anyone here has actually proved anything. It's equally absurd to think anyone has to prove anyone they disagree with wrong. Too many people have taken that arrogant and combative "prove me wrong" nonsense to heart.

No one has to prove anyone's wrong to disagree with someone. We can just disagree with each other in a respectful and civil manner.

 

[jahsoul357]

It seems the only thing we disagree on is if Payton placed more emphasis on scheming eligible receivers open in the short range, than he did in the deep range.

Let's just disagree on that and get to the heart of the matter. This is what I think you have been claiming.

You claim that the Saints switched to a short, horizontal offense to accommodate Brees' declining arm strength at the end of his career. You call that more of a West Coast Offense.

This is more of a "Walsh" offense and we did. I wouldn't say it was just Drew's physical decline, we lost/moved a lot of pieces that made it work. This can be easily verifiable looking at our games up until like 2014/2015.

You claim that the Saints are running that offense with Winston and it's why he is struggling.

Never stated that. Every is claiming that Jameis doesn't fit this offense and I stated that even though good coaching builds the offense around personnel, our personnel is better suited to run the offense that Brees ran in his prime

You claim that the Saints ran a vertical offense early in Brees career. You call that more of an Air Coryell offense.

Because we spread the field vertically, it falls into the Coryell category. Did it have "West Coast" elements? Yes, but if you go back and you look at our base offense (I did provide a video), we were vertical offense. The charts provided tell the story (ADOT for WRs as opposed to RBs/TEs)

You claim that if the Saints ran that more vertical, Air Coryell like offense, then Winston would be playing better.

I don't know if you realize but we have been successful when our passing game is more vertical (and I'm not talking about a deep shot to Olave). When our receivers go out and we have Johnson and AK play short, we have been moving the ball.

Am I accurately hearing what you're claiming? Also, are you just stating your opinion or are you claiming these things to be facts?

If you are hearing the points that I've highlighted, then yes and they are.

In Drew Brees' prime, we didn't run a traditional "WCO." Our offensive philosophy was more aligned to an Air Coryell system. We stretched the field vertically with our receivers and our RBs/TEs were underneath. This is the opposite of the offense we have been running for the past 5-6 years.

It's okay for people to have different opinions on what film, advanced stats, and metrics show. Basing an opinion on an interpretation of film, advanced stats, and metrics doesn't make an opinion a fact. It's still just an opinion.

Film, advanced stats, and metrics don't objectively prove anything. People draw different conclusions from them and there's no way for anyone to objectively prove their conclusions are more right than anyone else's.

Game film catches several instances of Brees' true form of a grey alien being revealed for a split second. If you go back and watch all the film, you'll see it.

Prove me wrong. If you don't prove me wrong, then it's true, right?

Of course that claim is absurd, but no more absurd than thinking that anyone here has actually proved anything. It's equally absurd to think anyone has to prove anyone they disagree with wrong. Too many people have taken that arrogant and combative "prove me wrong" nonsense to heart.

No one has to prove anyone's wrong to disagree with someone. We can just disagree with each other in a respectful and civil manner.

You said all of that but the problem is, you are not disagreeing with my opinion. I put down verifiable facts. How can you have a difference of opinion about being 60% career wise in intermediate passes and that being higher that Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, and many others completion percentage, and this is with throwing that pass at an average higher than anyone in the league.

A statistical fact is only absurd to those who want to believe their truth.

And as of Sunday's game, Jameis in 21/29 (72%) in intermediate throws and this is with the second most attempts in the league:

Let's compare:
Brady: 9/18 (50%)
Herbert: 10/20 (50%)
Mahomes: 13/24 (54%)
Burrow: 16/28 (57%)
Hurts: 12/20 (60%)
Wilson: 9/15 (60%)
Rodgers: 8/11 (72%)
Stafford: 11/14 (79%)

 

[Saint Greg]

He didn't want to be OC anymore either...he wanted to fallback to a backoffice analyst role. He didn't jump at the OC role until we interviewed Lane Kiffin for OC.

We interviewed Lane Kiffin for OC? I don't remember that at all. I remember Kiffin making a post on Twitter that seemed to be campaigning for the HC job but that's all I remember.

I think the best speculation I heard was the waiting to see if Payton was going to Miami speculation. Now it doesn't matter. If Payton comes back next year he'll be able to have whoever he wants from our offensive staff because they'll be the scapegoats.