Put me in the QB change camp (1 Viewer)

[BayouSAINTJoe]

@DavidM ok...it wasn't Kiffin, it was Jay Gruden, I got my jerks mixed up....old people problems, I swear.

Pete Carmichael will stay on as the Saints offensive coordinator

saintsreport.com

Pete agreed to be OC after we interviewed Jay, probably didn't want to work for someone like that.

 

[Big_L]

It's okay for people to have different opinions on what film, advanced stats, and metrics show. Basing an opinion on an interpretation of film, advanced stats, and metrics doesn't make an opinion a fact. It's still just an opinion.

Film, advanced stats, and metrics don't objectively prove anything. People draw different conclusions from them and there's no way for anyone to objectively prove their conclusions are more right than anyone else's.

Game film catches several instances of Brees' true form of a grey alien being revealed for a split second. If you go back and watch all the film, you'll see it.

Prove me wrong. If you don't prove me wrong, then it's true, right?

Of course that claim is absurd, but no more absurd than thinking that anyone here has actually proved anything. It's equally absurd to think anyone has to prove anyone they disagree with wrong. Too many people have taken that arrogant and combative "prove me wrong" nonsense to heart.

No one has to prove anyone's wrong to disagree with someone. We can just disagree with each other in a respectful and civil manner.

Well, I didn't read your long drawn out response. But if some one says he ain't buying what someone is selling, obviously he has proof to the contrary. I'd like to hear that proof.

 

[jahsoul357]

Well, I didn't read your long drawn out response. But if some one says he ain't buying what someone is selling, obviously he has proof to the contrary. I'd like to hear that proof.

He is basically saying that tape, stats, and metrics do not objectively prove anything but the problem with that assertion is if you aren't "buying" statistical facts, then you are measuring against the most subjective instrument know to man; the eye test.

 

[BayouSAINTJoe]

He is basically saying that tape, stats, and metrics do not objectively prove anything but the problem with that assertion is if you aren't "buying" statistical facts, then you are measuring against the most subjective instrument know to man; the eye test.

I'm glad you took time to decipher all that...This is a football forum, I ain't got time to sit here and decipher "look at me, I use complicated logic" posts...I operate one level up from "mouth breather"...anything more than that, I don't care too much to try and figure out.

 

[inetnawlins]

Prove him wrong then.

Don’t have to. My eyes and most other observers see a quarterback throwing off the mark. Receivers get no YAC because of poor ball placement. He is missing receivers running free and heaving the ball into double and triple coverage. He hangs on to ball too long leading to sacks. No amount of stats will show Winston has played well this year. He hasn’t.

 

[StudioSaint]

I don't know if you realize but we have been successful when our passing game is more vertical...

I realize a lot of things. I realize that in the first half of games the drives that have been successful are the ones that were carried by the running game, not a vertical passing game.

I realize that the only time the vertical passing game has been successful is late in the game when the defense is playing easier to read zones behind easier to defend pass rushes. The defenses are playing that way, because they have a comfortable lead.

Case in point, the Panthers backed off late in the game and the Saints moved the ball vertically. When the Saints got the game to within a score, the Panthers went back to tougher coverages and rushes which promptly shut down the success the Saints were having in the vertical passing game.

Also, the Saints had vertical routes on almost every passing play during the entire game. Just because a vertical route wasn't thrown to doesn't mean the play called wasn't trying to go vertical. You can't determine what a play caller was trying to do just on the outcome of the play. Plays don't always work out as intended.

When our receivers go out and we have Johnson and AK play short, we have been moving the ball.

Not any kind of consistency until late in the game and the defense backs off because of their lead.

You said all of that but the problem is, you are not disagreeing with my opinion. I put down verifiable facts.

I am disagreeing with the opinions you're concluding from selective stats, not the actual stats.

You've offered up some statistical facts and made claims based on what you believe those stats show.

How can you have a difference of opinion about being 60% career wise in intermediate passes and that being higher that Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, and many others completion percentage, and this is with throwing that pass at an average higher than anyone in the league.

This is great example of what I was just saying. The disagreement is not with factual statistics.

Those stats factually verfiy that Winston has completed almost 60% of his intermediate passes and that is higher percentage than Mahomes, Allen, Herbert and many others. That's what they verify and it's all they verify.

What else do you think those stats factually verify?

A statistical fact is only absurd to those who want to believe their truth.

It's actually the other way around. People generally absurdly cherry pick and subjectively interpret stats. They rarely go on an unbiased search for truth when they go looking for stats. They go looking for stats they can use to confirm the biases they already have.

And as of Sunday's game, Jameis in 21/29 (72%) in intermediate throws and this is with the second most attempts in the league:

Let's compare:
Brady: 9/18 (50%)
Herbert: 10/20 (50%)
Mahomes: 13/24 (54%)
Burrow: 16/28 (57%)
Hurts: 12/20 (60%)
Wilson: 9/15 (60%)
Rodgers: 8/11 (72%)
Stafford: 11/14 (79%)

Okay. So what? I mean that sincerely. What's so important about that statistical comparison? All it shows is what's happened to this point. It doesn't tell us why it's happened. It doesn't tell us what's going to happen in the future.

What's the statistical comparison of 3rd down efficiency, red zone efficiency, TD's to Int, Int per attempt. short pass completion, deep pass completion, sacks, sacks per attempt, missed reads, off target receptions and QBR?

 

[jahsoul357]

I swear, you have the longest post...lol. But I'm going to say this and let it go.

I realize a lot of things. I realize that in the first half of games the drives that have been successful are the ones that were carried by the running game, not a vertical passing game.

I realize that the only time the vertical passing game has been successful is late in the game when the defense is playing easier to read zones behind easier to defend pass rushes. The defenses are playing that way, because they have a comfortable lead.

Case in point, the Panthers backed off late in the game and the Saints moved the ball vertically. When the Saints got the game to within a score, the Panthers went back to tougher coverages and rushes which promptly shut down the success the Saints were having in the vertical passing game.

Also, the Saints had vertical routes on almost every passing play during the entire game. Just because a vertical route wasn't thrown to doesn't mean the play called wasn't trying to go vertical. You can't determine what a play caller was trying to do just on the outcome of the play. Plays don't always work out as intended.


Not any kind of consistency until late in the game and the defense backs off because of their lead.

So 13-0 going into the 4th calls for "easy to read" zones because our first scoring drive started at the end of the 4th. Score 13-7 (one possession game). What happens next? Panthers score on 2 plays. Next possession, ball gets tipped at the line for a diving interception. The next drive, holding penalty and short passes. Our defense holds and we score in 3 plays.

And those "easy to read" zones that you all are always bring up are meant to stop the over the top passes. What the crap happened? We went over the top.

I am disagreeing with the opinions you're concluding from selective stats, not the actual stats.

You've offered up some statistical facts and made claims based on what you believe those stats show.

This is great example of what I was just saying. The disagreement is not with factual statistics.

Those stats factually verfiy that Winston has completed almost 60% of his intermediate passes and that is higher percentage than Mahomes, Allen, Herbert and many others. That's what they verify and it's all they verify.

What else do you think those stats factually verify?


It's actually the other way around. People generally absurdly cherry pick and subjectively interpret stats. They rarely go on an unbiased search for truth when they go looking for stats. They go looking for stats they can use to confirm the biases they already have.

What am I cherry picking? I don't have any biases here. This conversation started because I said that our personnel would be better suited for the Coryell based offense (lol) that we ran in Brees' prime as opposed to what we ran in Brees' decline and I used the fact that Jameis is great at the intermediate pass game, which stats, metrics, and tape back up. Also the fact that we have a receiver group that can take over the 10+ yard part of the field with a RB that can take any catch to the house and a big athletic tight end to handle the seam route (the way Jimmy used to).

Okay. So what? I mean that sincerely. What's so important about that statistical comparison? All it shows is what's happened to this point. It doesn't tell us why it's happened. It doesn't tell us what's going to happen in the future.

What's the statistical comparison of 3rd down efficiency, red zone efficiency, TD's to Int, Int per attempt. short pass completion, deep pass completion, sacks, sacks per attempt, missed reads, off target receptions and QBR?

Because the way that our offense is structured, those are the passes that we should be getting to our wide receivers. I made the comparison to show how he compares to those who you all believe are the best in the league but it can also open up dialogue around the actual skill QBs have and how their scheme use it. I mean, Mahomes is considered this prolific passer but Andy Reid's system (for those that don't know) always schemes someone open. He is not throwing this receiver open because Andy Reid's system creates that space. But that is another topic for another day.

If you all think think that Jameis is having problems with the quick reads, then why aren't we spreading the field vertically.

Statically, before coming to the Saints, Jameis was one of the best at 3rd down, red zone efficiency and intermediate pass completions.
There is no statistical category for missed reads...lol. QBR? ESPN's QBR? lol

Now I'm glad that you brought up off target receptions because this is my main criticism of Jameis; too many deep shots, especially that last 2 weeks. If Jameis was healthy, then yeah but he has been off target on those deep shots and the crazy thing is, the play was there and if this was last year, those would be money. Now, we need to chill for a minute..lol.

 

[BayouSAINTJoe]

I swear, you have the longest post...lol. But I'm going to say this and let it go.


So 13-0 going into the 4th calls for "easy to read" zones because our first scoring drive started at the end of the 4th. Score 13-7 (one possession game). What happens next? Panthers score on 2 plays. Next possession, ball gets tipped at the line for a diving interception. The next drive, holding penalty and short passes. Our defense holds and we score in 3 plays.

And those "easy to read" zones that you all are always bring up are meant to stop the over the top passes. What the crap happened? We went over the top.


What am I cherry picking? I don't have any biases here. This conversation started because I said that our personnel would be better suited for the Coryell based offense (lol) that we ran in Brees' prime as opposed to what we ran in Brees' decline and I used the fact that Jameis is great at the intermediate pass game, which stats, metrics, and tape back up. Also the fact that we have a receiver group that can take over the 10+ yard part of the field with a RB that can take any catch to the house and a big athletic tight end to handle the seam route (the way Jimmy used to).




Because the way that our offense is structured, those are the passes that we should be getting to our wide receivers. I made the comparison to show how he compares to those who you all believe are the best in the league but it can also open up dialogue around the actual skill QBs have and how their scheme use it. I mean, Mahomes is considered this prolific passer but Andy Reid's system (for those that don't know) always schemes someone open. He is not throwing this receiver open because Andy Reid's system creates that space. But that is another topic for another day.

If you all think think that Jameis is having problems with the quick reads, then why aren't we spreading the field vertically.

Statically, before coming to the Saints, Jameis was one of the best at 3rd down, red zone efficiency and intermediate pass completions.
There is no statistical category for missed reads...lol. QBR? ESPN's QBR? lol

Now I'm glad that you brought up off target receptions because this is my main criticism of Jameis; too many deep shots, especially that last 2 weeks. If Jameis was healthy, then yeah but he has been off target on those deep shots and the crazy thing is, the play was there and if this was last year, those would be money. Now, we need to chill for a minute..lol.

TLDR

 

[Big_L]

I swear, you have the longest post...lol. But I'm going to say this and let it go.


So 13-0 going into the 4th calls for "easy to read" zones because our first scoring drive started at the end of the 4th. Score 13-7 (one possession game). What happens next? Panthers score on 2 plays. Next possession, ball gets tipped at the line for a diving interception. The next drive, holding penalty and short passes. Our defense holds and we score in 3 plays.

And those "easy to read" zones that you all are always bring up are meant to stop the over the top passes. What the crap happened? We went over the top.


What am I cherry picking? I don't have any biases here. This conversation started because I said that our personnel would be better suited for the Coryell based offense (lol) that we ran in Brees' prime as opposed to what we ran in Brees' decline and I used the fact that Jameis is great at the intermediate pass game, which stats, metrics, and tape back up. Also the fact that we have a receiver group that can take over the 10+ yard part of the field with a RB that can take any catch to the house and a big athletic tight end to handle the seam route (the way Jimmy used to).




Because the way that our offense is structured, those are the passes that we should be getting to our wide receivers. I made the comparison to show how he compares to those who you all believe are the best in the league but it can also open up dialogue around the actual skill QBs have and how their scheme use it. I mean, Mahomes is considered this prolific passer but Andy Reid's system (for those that don't know) always schemes someone open. He is not throwing this receiver open because Andy Reid's system creates that space. But that is another topic for another day.

If you all think think that Jameis is having problems with the quick reads, then why aren't we spreading the field vertically.

Statically, before coming to the Saints, Jameis was one of the best at 3rd down, red zone efficiency and intermediate pass completions.
There is no statistical category for missed reads...lol. QBR? ESPN's QBR? lol

Now I'm glad that you brought up off target receptions because this is my main criticism of Jameis; too many deep shots, especially that last 2 weeks. If Jameis was healthy, then yeah but he has been off target on those deep shots and the crazy thing is, the play was there and if this was last year, those would be money. Now, we need to chill for a minute..lol.

Man, I thought yall knew, the whole 4th quarter was garbage time.

 

[StudioSaint]

I swear, you have the longest post

Do you have any self-awareness? My posts are long, because I'm replying to your long posts. I'll try to do a better job of keeping it short.

And those "easy to read" zones that you all are always bring up...

I can't speak for "you all," but this was the first and only time I mentioned anything about easy to read zones. Are you paying attention to who you are replying to?

What am I cherry picking?

Pretty much everything you post is cherry picked.

I made the comparison to show how he compares to those who you all...

There you go talking to "you all" again. I'm not "you all" and I haven't said any of the things that you say "you all" have said. Reply to "you all" about the things "you all" have said, instead of replying to me about it. Thanks.

Hope this post was short enough for you.

 

[jahsoul357]

Do you have any self-awareness? My posts are long, because I'm replying to your long posts. I'll try to do a better job of keeping it short.

I have plenty and I guess the "LOL" was not an indicator that I was saying that tongue in cheek.

This was the first and only time I mentioned anything about easy to read zones. Are you actually reading what you reply to?

"You all" doesn't encompass just one person, which you kindly pointed out at the end of the thread. This has been the going theme since Week 1. Still wrong though

Pretty much everything you post is cherry picked.

But for some reason, you can't give details of what and how. And a lot of this spilled over from the fact that you didn't realize that our base offense during Brees' prime was the Air Coryell.

I'm not "you all" and I haven't said any of the things that you say "you all" have said. Reply to "you all" about the things "you all" have said, instead of replying to me.

Hope this post was short enough for you.

I felt the sass coming from this post...lol.

In all honesty, I'm too old to be at odds on a message boards about a sport I love. At the end of the day, I hope we just want our team to win. If it gets to a point where anyone gets hot about any point that I make, we can settle it privately...

I still want to know what I was cherry picking tho...lol

 

[Saint Greg]

Don’t have to. My eyes and most other observers see a quarterback throwing off the mark. Receivers get no YAC because of poor ball placement. He is missing receivers running free and heaving the ball into double and triple coverage. He hangs on to ball too long leading to sacks. No amount of stats will show Winston has played well this year. He hasn’t.

Best QB in the league in the 4th quarter of noon games in domed stadiums against teams wearing black helmets with a bird on them.

 

[StudioSaint]

I still want to know what I was cherry picking tho...

All you have to do is go back to the beginning of the discussion and re-read it. I've already told you at times specifically when I think you've done it.

 

[BreesIsMyFather]

Don’t have to. My eyes and most other observers see a quarterback throwing off the mark. Receivers get no YAC because of poor ball placement. He is missing receivers running free and heaving the ball into double and triple coverage. He hangs on to ball too long leading to sacks. No amount of stats will show Winston has played well this year. He hasn’t.

More times than not receivers are not catching in stride based on my obs lol it’s seem like receivers have to adjust too often

At this point, I say Taysom is more accurate and we know how that’s like

 

[sfidc3]

Best QB in the league in the 4th quarter of noon games in domed stadiums against teams wearing black helmets with a bird on them.

Thanks….Dan Deerdork!!!!!!