NFL 2025 salary cap expected to be 5-10 million higher than previous estimates (merged) (7 Viewers)

[whodatbe]

Kick that can babe!.....Just kidding, every little bit helps.

 

[RaginSaint93]

Loomis

 

[St. Geezy]

This seems to happen every year, but it is good news for us.

And not to touch a controversial subject, but an extra $10 million more than expected would make cutting or trading Carr a lot more feasible.

The more I dig into the numbers, I just don’t see this being feasible unless the organization has made the decision to tank in 2025, something I find very hard to fathom. The Saints just don’t have tanking in their DNA, and I also believe they’d worry about the business ramifications of such a move.

I think we have to live with the Carr contract, with a restructure, or an extension that pushes a little bit more money to 2027.

Also, keep in mind, fans are only ASSUMING that the team is desperate to move on from Carr. For all we know, Kellen Moore is champing at the bit to put a Derek Carr reclamation project feather in his cap. Or at worst, they’re willing to bite the bullet and have the league’s most expensive backup in the short term if they find a suitable replacement in free agency, something that ironically would all but require us keeping him around.

We just don’t know.

 

[RaginSaint93]

I bet Tee Higgins is kicking himself right now

 

[St. Widge]

The more I dig into the numbers, I just don’t see this being feasible unless the organization has made the decision to tank in 2025, something I find very hard to fathom. The Saints just don’t have tanking in their DNA, and I also believe they’d worry about the business ramifications of such a move.

I think we have to live with the Carr contract, with a restructure, or an extension that pushes a little bit more money to 2027.

Also, keep in mind, fans are only ASSUMING that the team is desperate to move on from Carr. For all we know, Kellen Moore is champing at the bit to put a Derek Carr reclamation project feather in his cap. Or at worst, they’re willing to bite the bullet and have the league’s most expensive backup in the short term if they find a suitable replacement in free agency, something that ironically would all but require us keeping him around.

We just don’t know.

I think whether you think it is a "tank" depends on a couple things. First, if you think Rattler has a shot to be as good or almost as good as Carr. And second, if you think the terrible record last year was mostly about injuries and this is essentially a .500 team. If you think both of those things, and I mostly do, it also seems like just adding low priced free agents and draft picks, while moving on to another QB, would be good enough to keep this team competitive and not tanking.

We don't know what they want to do with Carr. And, I'm not saying they are "desperate" to move on from Carr. But, the fact that Moore didn't say he is my starter or he is my starter this year tells me that the team is at least considering moving on from Carr this year and are not fully committed to him as the starting QB this year or in the future. Moore may be okay with starting him for another year, but he is clearly not chomping at the bit to try to fix him. Otherwise, again, he would have said he is my starting QB.

If the cap is $10 million higher or even $5 million higher, that makes it much easier to move on from Carr this year if they want to, while having a little money to upgrade a key position or two which would look even less like tanking. It might even give them some money to sign a guy like Fields, Daniel Jones, etc. as a reclamation project that Moore may be more interested in.

 

[St. Geezy]

I bet Tee Higgins is kicking himself right now

They’ll be the latest example of the pitfalls of too much cap space. Usually a product of poor drafting and a lack of core pieces you want re-signed. So now you have to overspend on other team’s free agents, too many of them.

You also have the added pressure of meeting minimum spend thresholds, which means more overspending if and when you don’t get your initial targets that simply don’t want to play for your bad team.

 

[St. Geezy]

I think whether you think it is a "tank" depends on a couple things. First, if you think Rattler has a shot to be as good or almost as good as Carr. And second, if you think the terrible record last year was mostly about injuries and this is essentially a .500 team. If you think both of those things, and I mostly do, it also seems like just adding low priced free agents and draft picks, while moving on to another QB, would be good enough to keep this team competitive and not tanking.

We don't know what they want to do with Carr. And, I'm not saying they are "desperate" to move on from Carr. But, the fact that Moore didn't say he is my starter or he is my starter this year tells me that the team is at least considering moving on from Carr this year and are not fully committed to him as the starting QB this year or in the future. Moore may be okay with starting him for another year, but he is clearly not chomping at the bit to try to fix him. Otherwise, again, he would have said he is my starting QB.

If the cap is $10 million higher or even $5 million higher, that makes it much easier to move on from Carr this year if they want to, while having a little money to upgrade a key position or two which would look even less like tanking. It might even give them some money to sign a guy like Fields, Daniel Jones, etc. as a reclamation project that Moore may be more interested in.

“Tank” may not have been the right word, but rather “Not giving it our all to win.”

I just don’t see us doing this with a new coach, but we shall see.

 

[St. Widge]

I bet Tee Higgins is kicking himself right now

Having cap space is good, but the danger of having that kind of cap space is what happened in Jacksonville a few years ago when they ended up blowing all that money on guys that ended up getting more than they should have because their agents knew Jacksonville had all that cap space. So they would just force Jacksonville to outbid other teams a pay more than the players are worth. If you have that kind of cap space, you have to decide what players or worth and refuse to go over it otherwise the agents are going to use your team as the Golden Goose.

 

[El Caliente]

 

[St. Widge]

“Tank” may not have been the right word, but rather “Not giving it our all to win.”

I just don’t see us doing this with a new coach, but we shall see.

I just don't see putting last year's team on the field with better coaching, a few lower priced free agents, draft picks, and a QB you think has higher upside as not giving it all to win. That is unless you consider the soft reset they have done the last few years as not trying to win. Frankly, I think that was the plan for this year anyway and moving on from Carr would not change it. And, frankly, it might give Moore additional money and flexibility to fix the roster next year if we aren't using as much cap space on Carr. So I think the question is do we want two years of a soft reset or do we want to pull the Carr bandaid off this year while doing a soft reset and then be done with soft resets next year?

I'd prefer to get it over with this year so we can look to get more competitive next year rather than being in soft reset mode for two more years.

 

[St. Geezy]

I just don't see putting last year's team on the field with a few lower priced free agents, draft picks, and a QB you think has higher upside as not giving it all to win. That is unless you consider the soft reset they have done the last few years as not trying to win. Frankly, I think that was the plan for this year anyway and moving on from Carr would not change it. And, frankly, it might give Moore additional money and flexibility to fix the roster next year if we aren't using as much cap space on Carr. So I think the question is do we want two years of a soft reset or do we want to pull the Carr bandaid off this year while doing a soft reset and then be done with soft resets next year?

I'd prefer to get it over with this year so we can look to get more competitive next year rather than being in soft reset mode for two more years.

Or you can look behind door #2, and field mostly the same team with a new draft class that includes a number 1 pick, new coaches, legitimate competition at QB, health, and more than $40m we can create in cap space for this off-season without cutting anyone.

Push it to 2026, then in 2026, push it to where you have a ton of space parked parked in 2027, using June 1 cuts and void years to get rid of the handful of guys you no longer want.

Not saying we should do it, just saying it’s a feasible option that doesn’t involve much deviation from what’s already set to happen organically.

Like Nick and Trip said, we are totally in position to give it one last hurrah with this group without completely destroying our future accounting.

We do not need to compromise ourselves much other than potentially having either a slightly overpaid starting QB or a ridiculously overpaid backup QB, along with keeping older guys like Demario, Taysom, and Tyrann an extra year longer than ideal. Certainly not ideal, but also not the end of the world to keep those guys around.

 

[Elvis]

Having cap space if good, but the danger of having that kind of cap space is what happened in Jacksonville a few years ago when they ended up blowing all that money on guys that ended up getting more than they should have because their agents knew Jacksonville had all that cap space. So they would just force Jacksonville to outbid other teams a pay more than the players are worth. If you have that kind of cap space, you have to decide what players or worth and refuse to go over it otherwise the agents are going to use your team as the Golden Goose.

Yeah, no teams should have that kind of cap space. That is the sign of a reset gone entirely wrong.

Let's look at the successful teams though. There are five 2024 playoff teams that have are between $5m and $20m in cap space in 2025 (Eagles, Ravens, Bucs, Chiefs and Texans). Only one playoff team has negative cap space, the Bills. All of the rest have $40m+ in 2025 cap space.

Of the non playoff teams with negative cap, Seattle and Atlanta can restructure a single player each and be under tomorrow. The Saints and the Browns are the only bad teams with super high cap numbers and the Browns have the excuse of signing the worst contract in NFL history and are $20m less in the hole than the Saints.

I think the merits, or lack thereof, the Saints cap plan are evident regardless if a few people want to continue to defend them.

 

[St. Widge]

Or you can look behind door #2, and field mostly the same team with a new draft class that includes a number 1 pick, new coaches, legitimate competition at QB, health, and more than $40m we can create in cap space for this off-season without cutting anyone.

Push it to 2026, then in 2026, push it to where you have a ton of space parked parked in 2027, using June 1 cuts and void years to get rid of the handful of guys you no longer want.

Not saying we should do it, just saying it’s a feasible option that doesn’t involve much deviation from what’s already set to happen organically.

Like Nick and Trip said, we are totally in position to give it one last hurrah with this group without completely destroying our future accounting.

We do not need to compromise ourselves much other than potentially having either a slightly overpaid starting QB or a ridiculously overpaid backup QB, along with keeping older guys like Demario and Tyrann an extra year longer than ideal.

I don't think door #2 is going to happen. Loomis has said he wants to get the cap closer to even and he has been working on it for two years. He's not suddenly going YOLO with a mid-level starting QB and an aging roster. He's going to bet on this roster as a .500 roster this year and not create/spend $40 million in free agency to get us right back into the hole that we started in.

They could choose to do it, but it would go against what Loomis has said, what he has mostly done for the last two years, and the information that Moore was promised the team would be patient with him. If that's the case there is no reason to go YOLO this year. Especially when you can field likely just as competitive a team and get under the cap without doing it.

Before the cap was projected to go up $5 to $10 million, I was pretty convinced they would keep Carr for another year. But this cap increase makes moving on from Carr more feasible and might even make it make sense to do this year. And if we do move on from Carr this year, Demario, Cam, Hill, and Tyrann will more than likely be on the roster this year. If we keep Carr, they may not be.

 

[St. Geezy]

Yeah, no teams should have that kind of cap space. That is the sign of a reset gone entirely wrong.

Let's look at the successful teams though. There are five 2024 playoff teams that have are between $5m and $20m in cap space in 2025 (Eagles, Ravens, Bucs, Chiefs and Texans). Only one playoff team has negative cap space, the Bills. All of the rest have $40m+ in 2025 cap space.

Of the non playoff teams with negative cap, Seattle and Atlanta can restructure a single player each and be under tomorrow. The Saints and the Browns are the only bad teams with super high cap numbers and the Browns have the excuse of signing the worst contract in NFL history and are $20m less in the hole than the Saints.

I think the merits, or lack thereof, the Saints cap plan are evident regardless if a few people want to continue to defend them.

Do those playoff teams have anyone of significance to re-sign. That was another point Mickey was making…we are operating with essentially an already full roster compared to other teams. Kind of an apples to oranges comparison in some cases.

 

[St. Geezy]

I don't think door #2 is going to happen. Loomis has said he wants to get the cap closer to even and he has been working on it for two years. He's not suddenly going YOLO with a mid-level starting QB and an aging roster. He's going to bet on this roster as a .500 roster this year and not create/spend $40 million in free agency to get us right back into the hole that we started in.

They could choose to do it, but it would go against what Loomis has said, what he has mostly done for the last two years, and the information that Moore was promised the team would be patient with him. If that's the case there is no reason to go YOLO this year. Especially when you can field likely just as competitive a team and get under the cap without doing it.

Before the cap was projected to go up $5 to $10 million, I was pretty convinced they would keep Carr for another year. But this cap increase makes moving on from Carr more feasible and might even make it make sense to do this year. And if we do move on from Carr this year, Demario, Cam, Hill, and Tyrann will more than likely be on the roster this year. If we keep Carr, they may not be.

Mickey said that last year, not this year, correct?

I could be mistaken but my understanding was they were using last year to get back to a certain mean level. To my knowledge, nothing has been said about this year or that last year’s situation was something permanent.