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Top 10 Mock Draft From PFN
I've been pretty vocal about my thoughts on this draft, specifically the media and how it manipulates false pretense in people's expectations of drafts and talent. Just an example, is I've been pretty vocal about Tyler Warren being a top 15 draft pick since December and possibly a top 10 pick (I always thought he should be). Back then, many had him mocked as a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick. I was also saying since early January that Dart would be a first round pick, possibly sneaking into top 10 via Bo Nix style. This is for many reasons. One, most of the people who do these mocks and grades don't watch the development of players in college week in and week out. Another reason they get adjusted, is as the draft approaches, more and more people watch game film (not highlights, but actual game film) and adjust their rankings. Lastly, they speak with scouts/coaches/gms around the senior bowl and throughout the draft process to help gauge the opinions of those actually making decisions and adjust their board accordingly.
Another example is Mykel Williams who was slated to be a top 10 pick. He's been dropping back a bit more recently as people watch the game films and ask themselves what they're really seeing. Now, there are market manipulators. Agents hire firms, or pass money around that filters to media to also "hype" up a player. It makes it a confusing process for people on the outside like us. But here are my thoughts compared to PFN's mock draft. But first, a few things
1. Rumor has it there are roughly 12 people in this draft with a first round grade by most teams. This is incredibly low. If there are 12, then how many are graded with a top 10 talent grade? yikes.
2. In no way do I claim to have any connections. My circles are different.
1. Tennessee Titans - Cam Ward : I get it. I personally don't have Ward as a top 4 prospect. But the QB position is highly valued more than any other position and Ward looks like the most capable franchise QB. I think the Titans should do it. Levis didn't show well under the new OC last year. He made a lot of bone-headed decisions and plays. Its possible that he needs to sit for a year or two. Think of when you watched someone do something and it was easy to point out the mistakes. It's much easier to recognize mistakes in others, then in yourself. You see someone make that mistake, then you make it knowing how it looked. It's really possible that the Titans taking Ward would be good for them and Levis, so Levis can sit for a couple of years and try free agency at some point to compete for a starting gig and display what he's learned.
2. Cleveland Browns - Abdul Carter : This would make a ton of sense if the Browns hadn't just signed Myles Garrett to an insanely high 4 year contract for $123 million guaranteed. This is a complete Madden pick. The Browns have to do something on offense. Chubb can't bell cow anymore. Ford can produce but can't carry an offense. They have no QB. Their best WR is Juedy. Abdul Carter isn't going to help them win games. Defense is not the problem and Carter isn't going to fix anything, nor is he going to elevate that defense much at all. They ABSOLUTELY need someone to carry that offense. Jeanty is the answer here since Ward is off the board. The only answer. I wouldn't be surprised if they take a stab at Dart or Sanders. Browns are notorious for fumbling the ball when it comes to picking QB's. They had it right with Baker Mayfield and soiled it due to inept coaching and a failure of a front office.
3. New York Giants - Shedeur Sanders : This doesn't make sense to me. Not selecting a QB. Dart would be another good option for them. They have Winston as a backup and Wilson as their starter so any QB selected can sit and learn. That would be valuable for Sanders. I just don't believe Sanders is worth a top 10 pick in this draft. I really didn't like much of what I saw from him. Played against sub-par to downright horrible opponents and he still got confused by Nebraska and BYU. BYU has a few good defensive players as does KU. But something isn't right here. Even after Sanders would have a bad game, the media would immediately begin hyping him up. Remember when I said agents will hire firms, money gets passed around for media to hype up a player? Who has more connections in those circles then Deion Sanders? When I watched him play, everything about him screamed backup. I don't think he's going to cut it in the NFL. His biggest success wasn't even his. It was Travis Hunter who carried that team both offensively and defensively. But all it takes is one team. One GM, and the Browns really do love screwing up QB selections or letting good ones go.
4. New England Patriots : Travis Hunter : This makes sense and it doesn't. I personally struggle with this. Travis Hunter is a baller. I do believe he's a top 10 pick whether he's just a CB, or a WR. I don't believe he can do both. At all. Everyone in the NFL struggles to stay healthy for a whole season playing just one position. We see bodies brake down left and right (look at McCaffery now, Lattimore's hamstring issues etc). I can't be sure, but I wonder a lot if he's so hyped up because the media is pretending a team will be drafting both a WR or a CB. I really hope theres not a coach in the NFL who drafts him thinking the same, else the poor kid will likely have a very short career and injuries will take a toll on his body. I personally would prefer him at WR. The way he bailed out Sanders game in and game out was incredible. But theres one problem. In this mock draft Jeanty is still on the board and Vrabel does NOT like passing the ball much. Vrabel's philosophy is to win with defense and pound the rock, ALOT. He has what looks like a possible franchise QB who needs help. Jeanty will provide more help as he can pound the rock Derrek Henry style but also catch the ball in short yardage plays Hunter style. If Jeanty is on the board here @4, I struggle to come up with any logical reason Vrabel isn't running to the podium.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars : Mason Graham : Can't knock this one. It's a good pick. I don't think Tet is a top 5 player. Graham is a top 4 talent and still on the board. However, Coen needs to get this offense clicking and Etienne struggled mostly because of that offensive line. Lawrence also needs better protection. Their hurting for good pass catching talent, but they really, really need to get that Oline squared away so Etienne can do some damage on the ground to take pressure off Lawrence and the passing game, but also so Lawrence isn't getting murdered in the pocket. They have to take Will Campbell here. Their free agency additions isn't enough to elevate that Oline much at all. Tyler Warren is at play here. He can block and pass catch. It is possible that Coen feels he needs a weapon in the passing game AND help blocking. Warren can do both, and I do consider him a top 5 talent in this draft since its so lacking in talent. But I would lean more towards Campbell being selected considerably.
6. Las Vegas Raiders : Ashton Jeanty. I'm baffled that they really believe a generational RB will be on the board @6 with such slow exceptional amount of talent in this draft. But ya, if he's available here Pete Carroll is doing old man backflips on the way to the podium and his pants may have risen an inch at the ankles. I would lean towards Jeanty being gone already and Travis Hunter being the selection here to pair with Brock Browers on offense.
7. New York Jets - Tyler Warren : Great pick to help Justin Fields with a receiving option. With Carter and Graham off the board, I absolutely would want to slap Aaron Glenn for not running to that podium to take Tyler Warren. IMO He's a top 4 talent in this draft and its just a really good fit. Another option, and a good one would be Kevin Banks Jr. I personally think Banks is better than Campbell and the Jets need help at Oline.
8. Carolina Panthers - Jalon Walker : In this scenario, all of the best offensive weapons are off the board. So the Panthers really only have two options, improve defense or Oline. I would lean towards Oline if I were them, but if I were going defense, Kenneth Grant, Jalon Walker, Jadae Barron are my primary options. Below average Oline and Kevin Banks would also be a good pick here and maybe ideal. The Panthers aren't struggling for defensive play. They really do need to get Young some more protection and weapons around him. I would honestly expect them to take Tyler Warren if he's still on the board. Tet feels like a reach to me but is another option.
9. New Orleans Saints - Jahdae Barron : As much as I want the Saints to grab Jeanty or Warren, both will likely be gone. I do really like Barron. He's my number CB in this draft but I can't help feeling theres better value in terms of position. Again, Kevin Banks makes more sense to me. I know we just got a NT from the Patriots but Kenneth Grant would be a great option as well. It would be a reach, but Booker would not be an awful pick here either but is reaching a good amount. This is just an ugly place to be picking. I can also see the Saints taking Dart if they like him and Moore thinks he's his guy. Dart is vastly underrated and has been most of the draft up until Kiper recently mocked him top 10.
10 Chicago Bears - Will Campbell : With the Jets, Jacksonville, Carolina and Saints all having struggling olines, I really do believe that Campbell won't be here. Likely not Kevin Banks either. But this is it. The way the mock shaped out its a great selection. Ben Johnson is HUGE on building monster Olines and its what he did first in Detriot. Every single Olineman in Detriot was a 1st round pick by the Lions or from someone else, all but 1 who was a 2nd or 3rd round pick. They have the QB, they have WR's. I really do believe Ben Johnson is drooling at the idea of getting Jeanty, but so is every offensive head coach.
I've been pretty vocal about my thoughts on this draft, specifically the media and how it manipulates false pretense in people's expectations of drafts and talent. Just an example, is I've been pretty vocal about Tyler Warren being a top 15 draft pick since December and possibly a top 10 pick (I always thought he should be). Back then, many had him mocked as a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick. I was also saying since early January that Dart would be a first round pick, possibly sneaking into top 10 via Bo Nix style. This is for many reasons. One, most of the people who do these mocks and grades don't watch the development of players in college week in and week out. Another reason they get adjusted, is as the draft approaches, more and more people watch game film (not highlights, but actual game film) and adjust their rankings. Lastly, they speak with scouts/coaches/gms around the senior bowl and throughout the draft process to help gauge the opinions of those actually making decisions and adjust their board accordingly.
Another example is Mykel Williams who was slated to be a top 10 pick. He's been dropping back a bit more recently as people watch the game films and ask themselves what they're really seeing. Now, there are market manipulators. Agents hire firms, or pass money around that filters to media to also "hype" up a player. It makes it a confusing process for people on the outside like us. But here are my thoughts compared to PFN's mock draft. But first, a few things
1. Rumor has it there are roughly 12 people in this draft with a first round grade by most teams. This is incredibly low. If there are 12, then how many are graded with a top 10 talent grade? yikes.
2. In no way do I claim to have any connections. My circles are different.
1. Tennessee Titans - Cam Ward : I get it. I personally don't have Ward as a top 4 prospect. But the QB position is highly valued more than any other position and Ward looks like the most capable franchise QB. I think the Titans should do it. Levis didn't show well under the new OC last year. He made a lot of bone-headed decisions and plays. Its possible that he needs to sit for a year or two. Think of when you watched someone do something and it was easy to point out the mistakes. It's much easier to recognize mistakes in others, then in yourself. You see someone make that mistake, then you make it knowing how it looked. It's really possible that the Titans taking Ward would be good for them and Levis, so Levis can sit for a couple of years and try free agency at some point to compete for a starting gig and display what he's learned.
2. Cleveland Browns - Abdul Carter : This would make a ton of sense if the Browns hadn't just signed Myles Garrett to an insanely high 4 year contract for $123 million guaranteed. This is a complete Madden pick. The Browns have to do something on offense. Chubb can't bell cow anymore. Ford can produce but can't carry an offense. They have no QB. Their best WR is Juedy. Abdul Carter isn't going to help them win games. Defense is not the problem and Carter isn't going to fix anything, nor is he going to elevate that defense much at all. They ABSOLUTELY need someone to carry that offense. Jeanty is the answer here since Ward is off the board. The only answer. I wouldn't be surprised if they take a stab at Dart or Sanders. Browns are notorious for fumbling the ball when it comes to picking QB's. They had it right with Baker Mayfield and soiled it due to inept coaching and a failure of a front office.
3. New York Giants - Shedeur Sanders : This doesn't make sense to me. Not selecting a QB. Dart would be another good option for them. They have Winston as a backup and Wilson as their starter so any QB selected can sit and learn. That would be valuable for Sanders. I just don't believe Sanders is worth a top 10 pick in this draft. I really didn't like much of what I saw from him. Played against sub-par to downright horrible opponents and he still got confused by Nebraska and BYU. BYU has a few good defensive players as does KU. But something isn't right here. Even after Sanders would have a bad game, the media would immediately begin hyping him up. Remember when I said agents will hire firms, money gets passed around for media to hype up a player? Who has more connections in those circles then Deion Sanders? When I watched him play, everything about him screamed backup. I don't think he's going to cut it in the NFL. His biggest success wasn't even his. It was Travis Hunter who carried that team both offensively and defensively. But all it takes is one team. One GM, and the Browns really do love screwing up QB selections or letting good ones go.
4. New England Patriots : Travis Hunter : This makes sense and it doesn't. I personally struggle with this. Travis Hunter is a baller. I do believe he's a top 10 pick whether he's just a CB, or a WR. I don't believe he can do both. At all. Everyone in the NFL struggles to stay healthy for a whole season playing just one position. We see bodies brake down left and right (look at McCaffery now, Lattimore's hamstring issues etc). I can't be sure, but I wonder a lot if he's so hyped up because the media is pretending a team will be drafting both a WR or a CB. I really hope theres not a coach in the NFL who drafts him thinking the same, else the poor kid will likely have a very short career and injuries will take a toll on his body. I personally would prefer him at WR. The way he bailed out Sanders game in and game out was incredible. But theres one problem. In this mock draft Jeanty is still on the board and Vrabel does NOT like passing the ball much. Vrabel's philosophy is to win with defense and pound the rock, ALOT. He has what looks like a possible franchise QB who needs help. Jeanty will provide more help as he can pound the rock Derrek Henry style but also catch the ball in short yardage plays Hunter style. If Jeanty is on the board here @4, I struggle to come up with any logical reason Vrabel isn't running to the podium.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars : Mason Graham : Can't knock this one. It's a good pick. I don't think Tet is a top 5 player. Graham is a top 4 talent and still on the board. However, Coen needs to get this offense clicking and Etienne struggled mostly because of that offensive line. Lawrence also needs better protection. Their hurting for good pass catching talent, but they really, really need to get that Oline squared away so Etienne can do some damage on the ground to take pressure off Lawrence and the passing game, but also so Lawrence isn't getting murdered in the pocket. They have to take Will Campbell here. Their free agency additions isn't enough to elevate that Oline much at all. Tyler Warren is at play here. He can block and pass catch. It is possible that Coen feels he needs a weapon in the passing game AND help blocking. Warren can do both, and I do consider him a top 5 talent in this draft since its so lacking in talent. But I would lean more towards Campbell being selected considerably.
6. Las Vegas Raiders : Ashton Jeanty. I'm baffled that they really believe a generational RB will be on the board @6 with such slow exceptional amount of talent in this draft. But ya, if he's available here Pete Carroll is doing old man backflips on the way to the podium and his pants may have risen an inch at the ankles. I would lean towards Jeanty being gone already and Travis Hunter being the selection here to pair with Brock Browers on offense.
7. New York Jets - Tyler Warren : Great pick to help Justin Fields with a receiving option. With Carter and Graham off the board, I absolutely would want to slap Aaron Glenn for not running to that podium to take Tyler Warren. IMO He's a top 4 talent in this draft and its just a really good fit. Another option, and a good one would be Kevin Banks Jr. I personally think Banks is better than Campbell and the Jets need help at Oline.
8. Carolina Panthers - Jalon Walker : In this scenario, all of the best offensive weapons are off the board. So the Panthers really only have two options, improve defense or Oline. I would lean towards Oline if I were them, but if I were going defense, Kenneth Grant, Jalon Walker, Jadae Barron are my primary options. Below average Oline and Kevin Banks would also be a good pick here and maybe ideal. The Panthers aren't struggling for defensive play. They really do need to get Young some more protection and weapons around him. I would honestly expect them to take Tyler Warren if he's still on the board. Tet feels like a reach to me but is another option.
9. New Orleans Saints - Jahdae Barron : As much as I want the Saints to grab Jeanty or Warren, both will likely be gone. I do really like Barron. He's my number CB in this draft but I can't help feeling theres better value in terms of position. Again, Kevin Banks makes more sense to me. I know we just got a NT from the Patriots but Kenneth Grant would be a great option as well. It would be a reach, but Booker would not be an awful pick here either but is reaching a good amount. This is just an ugly place to be picking. I can also see the Saints taking Dart if they like him and Moore thinks he's his guy. Dart is vastly underrated and has been most of the draft up until Kiper recently mocked him top 10.
10 Chicago Bears - Will Campbell : With the Jets, Jacksonville, Carolina and Saints all having struggling olines, I really do believe that Campbell won't be here. Likely not Kevin Banks either. But this is it. The way the mock shaped out its a great selection. Ben Johnson is HUGE on building monster Olines and its what he did first in Detriot. Every single Olineman in Detriot was a 1st round pick by the Lions or from someone else, all but 1 who was a 2nd or 3rd round pick. They have the QB, they have WR's. I really do believe Ben Johnson is drooling at the idea of getting Jeanty, but so is every offensive head coach.
