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Are QBs starting to prove that they can still be Good at least until they are 40?
Rules protecting QBs today are designed to keep them from getting hurt in a number of ways that they weren't previously protected from.
Here are some of those rules.
www.denverpost.com
When you consider the rules in place today compared to years past the QBs take far fewer hits than before and less hits that lead to severe or career ending injuries. Today a QB has a proverbial skirt on. Tom Brady got sacked a couple years ago by Grady Jarrett and Jarrett was called for roughing the passer on what was a routine sack for spinning Brady to the ground. That was a bad call, and it won't be the last. The league is unapologetic for protecting the QBs.
QBs are more athletic in general than in years past and can avoid many hits by slipping outside the tackle box and getting rid of the ball before contact. That along with all the other rules listed above would seem to make it much more favorable for a QB to have more longevity than in years past. Advanced year-round conditioning practices along with better nutrition also promote longer health than what was practiced before. There's an iconic photo of Len Dawson smoking a cigarette at halftime of Super Bowl 1 on January 15, 1967. In today's NFL game you most likely won't find a single QB who smokes cigarettes, and certainly not during a game.
On the flip side of this is the fact that the defensive players also take care of their bodies with year-round conditioning. The current defensive players by and large are better overall athletes, bigger, stronger, and faster. A QB that has slowed down a bit due to age and prior injuries may find it a bit harder to maneuver in the pocket to avoid the rush or get outside of the pocket in time to avoid the sack as they had in their earlier playing years. The NFL is referred to as a passing league in today's game. Throughout the course of a career QBs will throw hundreds more passes in games in their careers than in years past. In 2023 teams averaged 33.7 passes per game. They've only averaged less than 30 passes per game one year since 1980. In 1977 the league average was 25 pass attempts per game. The point is that there is more wear on a QBs arm throughout his career now than before. One of the reasons QBs call it quits is because they can't make the throws in later years that they could when they were younger. Another is ego and self-preserving of their career body of work. Most prefer to go out on a high note if possible. Choosing to ride out their career as a backup after establishing legend status may not be a route great ones would prefer to take. Another factor is money and quality of life. The better QBs today make enough money once they sign their 2nd contract that they are set for life with some having generational wealth. After stacking millions some players in today's game will choose to retire long before reaching 40 especially if they have had repeated concussions and lingering injuries that could be life threatening. There's life after football waiting for most NFL QBs with plenty of opportunities for the better ones outside of football, or they can truly retire young and do as they please without concerns about providing for their families.
Let's take a look at the historical data of QBs that have played to the age of 40 and beyond and consider when they last played and then look at the current QBs and try to project who might play at 40 or beyond in the future.
George Blanda - 48 - Last Played In 1975 (0 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Over)
**Note: Blanda played most of his years over 40 as a backup QB and as a Kicker.
Tom Brady - 45 - Last Played in 2022 (68 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Over)
Steve DeBerg - 44 - Last Played in 1998 (0 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Older)
**Note: Started only 1 game in 1998 for Atlanta - Lost by a Score of 28-3. lol
Warren Moon - 44 - Last Played in 2000 (15 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Older)
Vinny Testaverde - 44 - Last Played in 2007 (10 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Older)
Doug Flutie - 43 - Last Played in 2005 (3 Regular Season Wins as A Starter at the Age of 40 or Older)
**Note: In 2005 with NE Flutie was the last player in NFL history to attempt and successfully make a drop kick FG.
Earl Morrall - 42 - Last Played in 1976 (2 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Older)
Brett Favre - 41 - Last Played in 2010 (17 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Older)
Mark Brunell - 41 - Last Played in 2011 (0 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Older)
Drew Bress - 41 - Last Played in 2020 (17 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Older)
Charlie Conerly - 40 - Last Played in 1961 (2 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Johnny Unitas - 40 - Last Played in 1973 (1 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Sonny Jurgensen - 40 - Last Played in 1974 (3 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Len Dawson - 40 - Last Played in 1975 (1 Regular Season Win as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Jim Hart - 40 - Last Played in 1984 (0 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Joe Ferguson - 40 - Last Played in 1990 (0 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Vince Evans -40 - Last Played in 1995 (1 Regular Season Win as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Dave Krieg - 40 - Last Played in 1998 (0 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Wade Wilson - 40 - Last Played in 1999 (0 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40) **Was on a roster at age 40 but did not play a single down.
Brad Johnson - 40 - Last Played in 2008 (1 Regular Season Win as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Matt Hasselbeck - 40 - Last Played in 2015 (5 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Josh McCown - 40 - Last played in 2019 (0 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40)
A few things stand out from the data above. There have been 22 NFL QBs all-time that have Played in a game at the age of 40 or older. In the past 10 years only 3 have, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Josh McCown. In the past 20 years a total of 8 QBs have Played in an NFL game at the age of 40 or older. Two thirds of the QBs that have played a game at the age of 40 or older did so over 20 years ago.
So, the narrative that QBs are playing into their 40s more often now than in the past is False. Also, only 3 QBs that played into their 40s can be considered to have played Good by any reasonable measure, such as wins over the age of 40 in relation to the years played at 40 and over, and that would be Brady, Brees, and Favre. So, to that end it's also a False narrative that QBs are Now playing Good into their 40s. The recency of Brady and Brees in their 40s and their greatness makes it seem so, but it's not.
**Note: Aaron Rodgers turned 40 in December of 2023. He got injured in the first game of the 2023 season and was placed on injured reserve. He has not yet played in a game at the age of 40. The 2024 season will be his first time doing so provided he is able to play in 2024 or after. **
The video in the link below is excellent and covers these players with more detail. There are some Awesome Saints clips in the video so It's A Must Watch. The video below is by KTO on YouTube:
Current NFL QBs that may Play at the age of 40 or older are listed below. I'm starting with the age of 30 because even at that age with 10 years remaining, it's too hard to speculate beyond 10 years who might make it.
Aaron Rodgers - 40 - Rodgers is coming off season ending injury. If he can play at a high level for at least 2 more years without injury he should get in the range of Brees and Favre for number of wins at the age of 40 and older.
Joe Flacco - 39 - Flacco was a good story coming off the couch making a comeback in 2023. He signed with the Colts to back up Richardson this yr. Barring injury to Richardson, Flacco won't be throwing any passes in the near future.
Brian Hoyer - 38 - Hoyer is currently an unsigned free agent. He's been a perennial backup his entire career except for one season. It remains to be seen if he gets signed and plays a single down again. The hourglass is almost empty.
Josh Johnson -37 - Will turn 38 prior to the start of the 2024 season. Has been on 14 different teams, a league record. A career backup. Won't be a starter. May not make a squad. Can he hang around another 3 years or more?
Andy Dalton - 36 - Dalton has had a relative steady career and has been injury free for most of it. Currently he is a backup QB behind Bryce Young with the Panthers. He could make it to 40, but if so, it would purely be as a backup.
Matthew Stafford - 36 - 3 years now removed from winning a SB, Stafford had a very good year in 2023. He has the talent and the arm strength to play. He's been hurt a bit lately. If he can stay healthy, he could play a while longer.
Case Keenum - 36 - Keenum's days as a starter have been in the rearview mirror for over 5 years now. Currently a backup in Houston behind C.J. Stroud, Case won't play anytime soon unless Stroud gets injured. Times ticking for him.
Kirk Cousins - 35 - Cousins will turn 36 before the 2024 season starts. He's had a solid career to this point. Coming off a season ending injury. If he can stay healthy for another 5 years without a falloff, he could make it if he desires to.
Russell Wilson - 35 - Wilson will turn 36 during the 2024 season. His play has fallen off the past few years. Can he turn it back on? His health hasn't been a concern. Will he want to play into his later years if he's regulated to a backup?
Ryan Tannehill - 35 - He'll turn 36 prior to the start of the 2024 season. Has been a starter and a backup. Future as a starter doubtful at this point. A good athlete. Does he have what it takes to hang around another 5 years or more?
Tyrod Taylor - 34 - Taylor will turn 35 before the 2024 season begins. Hasn't been the main QB since 2017. A perennial veteran backup at this point. He won't get snaps behind Rodgers. Can he hang around another 6 years or more?
Blaine Gabbert - 34 - He'll turn 35 during the 2024 season. Started his 1st two years in JAX. Has been a backup the past 7 years. Currently unsigned as a free agent. Playing days are numbered. Vet ins. policy at best. Won't get there.
Taysom Hill - 33 - Will turn 34 before season starts. The Swiss Army Knife. A role player with only 9 career starts who has a 7-2 record as a starter. Will remain a backup unless injury to starter. Plays rough. Can he make it to 40?
Matt Barkley - 33- Will turn 34 at the beginning of the 2024 season. Never a day 1 starter. In and out of the league. Currently a free agent. Highly unlikely he will be on a roster 7 years from now much less get to play.
A. J. McCarron - 33 -Will turn 34 at the beginning of the 2024 season. Currently playing in the UFL. In his 7 years in the NFL he's only started 4 games. May never be on an NFL roster again. Won't be on one 7 years from now.
Geno Smith - 33 - Two major knee injuries. Languished for 6 years. Has had a resurgence the past 2 years playing at a high level. Currently Seahawks starter. Does he have 8 years or more left in him? Time will tell.
Derek Carr - 33 - A starter his entire 10 years so far going into his 11th season. A bit nicked up in 2023 but tough as nails. Has only missed 1 game due to injury in his career. Without injury or falloff, he has a chance to make it.
Jimmy Garoppolo - 32 - Will turn 33 during the 2024 season. 63 career starts. Excellent career winning percentage at 68%. Currently signed as a backup to Stafford for the Rams. 8 years away to 40. Doubtful to see snaps then.
Trevor Siemian - 32 - Will turn 33 during the 2024 season. Journeyman who's been on 6 teams. Currently a free agent. Last entered season as a day 1 starter 8 years ago. 8 years from now he'll be working in a different field.
Brandon Allen 31 - Will turn 32 at the beginning of the 2024 season. A career backup now on his 5th team. Has seen a few snaps due to the injury to Joe Burrow. Will be out of the league before he gets his first grey hair.
Carson Wentz - 31 - Will turn 32 at the end of the 2024 season. Has started 93 games in his career. Was a backup last year and signed with KC this year as a backup to Mahomes. Healthy. 9 years is an eternity in the NFL. I doubt it.
Jacoby Brisset - 31 - Will turn 32 at the end of the 2024 season. Veteran presence in Patriots QB room in 2024. Starter as recent as 2022 for the Browns. 48 career starts on bad teams. Backup insurance to rookie QB Drake May. Nah!
Dak Prescott - 30 - Dak will turn 31 prior to the start of the 2024 season. A solid start to his career now entering his 9th year. Questions about his future in Dallas. 10 years is a long time yet to get there. With good health, he could.
Marcus Mariota - 30 - Will turn 31 during the 2024 season. Veteran entering his 10th season with 74 career starts. Good athlete. Now on his 5th team as a backup to Jayden Daniels. Won't be on a roster 10 years from now.
The above list includes 24 NFL QBs that are the possible candidates to play at the age of 40 or over within the next 10 years. It's mostly an underwhelming group. If the criteria is based on Playing Good into their 40s that leaves plenty of doubt. The only players I would consider having a realistic chance of achieving that would be Rodgers (a certainty), Flacco (If Richardson gets injured), Stafford (If he stays healthy), Geno (With a lot of luck), Cousins (If he doesn't break down with the Clowns), Russ (If Ciara let's him), Carr (If the Saints line doesn't get him killed), Dak (If he stays healthy and doesn't have a major drop-off). That's 8 with only 1 as a sure thing over the next 10 years. Most likely only a few in this group make it to 40 or over with Good play at that age.
Again, this is the crop of QBs to consider in the next 10 years.
So, to close the door on the False narrative that more QBs today are playing Good into their 40s, it's been debunked, and the trend will more than likely go down, not up.
Who from the above list do you think will play Good at the age of 40 or over?
A better age to suggest the end of an NFL QBs career is imminent begins at 38 and they quit before 40. Most QBs don't make it to the age of 38. If they do, usually that's an age that begins a huge drop off in their ability to play. For example, here's a handful of the better QBs of their era that finished playing at the ages of 38 and 39. Peyton Manning (39), Philip Rivers (39), Ben Roethlisberger (39), Rich Gannon (39), Jim Plunkett (39), Ken Stabler (39), Dan Marino (38), Joe Montana (38), Sammy Baugh (38), Y.A. Tittle (38), Kurt Warner (38), John Elway (38), Steve Young (38), Eli Manning (38), Randall Cunningham (38), Fran Tarkenton (38), Phil Simms (38).
Rules protecting QBs today are designed to keep them from getting hurt in a number of ways that they weren't previously protected from.
Here are some of those rules.
- Don't hit the quarterback late. Once the QB has released the ball the defender can only hit him if he takes one step and contact must occur before his 2nd step hits the ground. Years ago, it was more like 3 steps.
- Don't bring your full body weight onto the quarterback after he's hit. Even on a clean hit resulting in a sack the defender must position his body or brace his fall so that his full body weight does not land on the QB. Big Diff!
- Don't lead with the helmet or touch the QB in the head or neck area. Pretty straight forward. Years ago, they could knock their teeth out.
- Don't hit the QB around the knee area or below. This also applies even if the initial contact began above the knee area of the QB. See the hit Theisman took to the knee. The "Brady Rule" prohibits a defender from lunging at the QBs knees or lower leg below the knee. Brady also took a hit to the knee that ended his season which was the impetus for this rule. Before every body part on the QB was fair game.
- Intentional grounding was once called from anywhere on the field in which the QB threw the ball away without targeting a receiver to avoid a sack. Now the QB can step outside the tackle box and avoid a sack by throwing the ball away as long as it reaches the line of scrimmage or further. This rule alone has dramatically reduced the number of hits and sacks on the QB.
- Single bar face masks were outlawed in 2004. Joe Theisman was the last QB to play with one. He retired in 1985. Theismann said he suffered seven broken noses when he played, but considered switching to a cage only once, when he lost 3 1/2 teeth on a sack by NYG linebacker Byron Hunt in 1982. All players since 2004 are required to wear a cage type facemask. In 2024 the league will also allow players to wear Guardian Caps in the games if they want to.
- Not allowing defensive contact of a receiver beyond 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. This is an indirect way of protecting the QB as it gives the receivers more freedom in their routes to get open earlier which allows the QB to get the ball out of his hands earlier than before. In today's game a quick release is imperative to avoiding sacks. Two and a half seconds or so time to throw is the goal for a QB in today's game, much quicker than in years past.
Fast releases for Peyton Manning, Tom Brady have propelled their NFL careers
Fast releases for Peyton Manning, Tom Brady have propelled their NFL careers
www.denverpost.comWhen you consider the rules in place today compared to years past the QBs take far fewer hits than before and less hits that lead to severe or career ending injuries. Today a QB has a proverbial skirt on. Tom Brady got sacked a couple years ago by Grady Jarrett and Jarrett was called for roughing the passer on what was a routine sack for spinning Brady to the ground. That was a bad call, and it won't be the last. The league is unapologetic for protecting the QBs.
QBs are more athletic in general than in years past and can avoid many hits by slipping outside the tackle box and getting rid of the ball before contact. That along with all the other rules listed above would seem to make it much more favorable for a QB to have more longevity than in years past. Advanced year-round conditioning practices along with better nutrition also promote longer health than what was practiced before. There's an iconic photo of Len Dawson smoking a cigarette at halftime of Super Bowl 1 on January 15, 1967. In today's NFL game you most likely won't find a single QB who smokes cigarettes, and certainly not during a game.
On the flip side of this is the fact that the defensive players also take care of their bodies with year-round conditioning. The current defensive players by and large are better overall athletes, bigger, stronger, and faster. A QB that has slowed down a bit due to age and prior injuries may find it a bit harder to maneuver in the pocket to avoid the rush or get outside of the pocket in time to avoid the sack as they had in their earlier playing years. The NFL is referred to as a passing league in today's game. Throughout the course of a career QBs will throw hundreds more passes in games in their careers than in years past. In 2023 teams averaged 33.7 passes per game. They've only averaged less than 30 passes per game one year since 1980. In 1977 the league average was 25 pass attempts per game. The point is that there is more wear on a QBs arm throughout his career now than before. One of the reasons QBs call it quits is because they can't make the throws in later years that they could when they were younger. Another is ego and self-preserving of their career body of work. Most prefer to go out on a high note if possible. Choosing to ride out their career as a backup after establishing legend status may not be a route great ones would prefer to take. Another factor is money and quality of life. The better QBs today make enough money once they sign their 2nd contract that they are set for life with some having generational wealth. After stacking millions some players in today's game will choose to retire long before reaching 40 especially if they have had repeated concussions and lingering injuries that could be life threatening. There's life after football waiting for most NFL QBs with plenty of opportunities for the better ones outside of football, or they can truly retire young and do as they please without concerns about providing for their families.
Let's take a look at the historical data of QBs that have played to the age of 40 and beyond and consider when they last played and then look at the current QBs and try to project who might play at 40 or beyond in the future.
George Blanda - 48 - Last Played In 1975 (0 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Over)
**Note: Blanda played most of his years over 40 as a backup QB and as a Kicker.
Tom Brady - 45 - Last Played in 2022 (68 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Over)
Steve DeBerg - 44 - Last Played in 1998 (0 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Older)
**Note: Started only 1 game in 1998 for Atlanta - Lost by a Score of 28-3. lol
Warren Moon - 44 - Last Played in 2000 (15 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Older)
Vinny Testaverde - 44 - Last Played in 2007 (10 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Older)
Doug Flutie - 43 - Last Played in 2005 (3 Regular Season Wins as A Starter at the Age of 40 or Older)
**Note: In 2005 with NE Flutie was the last player in NFL history to attempt and successfully make a drop kick FG.
Earl Morrall - 42 - Last Played in 1976 (2 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Older)
Brett Favre - 41 - Last Played in 2010 (17 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Older)
Mark Brunell - 41 - Last Played in 2011 (0 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Older)
Drew Bress - 41 - Last Played in 2020 (17 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40 or Older)
Charlie Conerly - 40 - Last Played in 1961 (2 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Johnny Unitas - 40 - Last Played in 1973 (1 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Sonny Jurgensen - 40 - Last Played in 1974 (3 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Len Dawson - 40 - Last Played in 1975 (1 Regular Season Win as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Jim Hart - 40 - Last Played in 1984 (0 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Joe Ferguson - 40 - Last Played in 1990 (0 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Vince Evans -40 - Last Played in 1995 (1 Regular Season Win as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Dave Krieg - 40 - Last Played in 1998 (0 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Wade Wilson - 40 - Last Played in 1999 (0 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40) **Was on a roster at age 40 but did not play a single down.
Brad Johnson - 40 - Last Played in 2008 (1 Regular Season Win as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Matt Hasselbeck - 40 - Last Played in 2015 (5 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40)
Josh McCown - 40 - Last played in 2019 (0 Regular Season Wins as a Starter at the Age of 40)
A few things stand out from the data above. There have been 22 NFL QBs all-time that have Played in a game at the age of 40 or older. In the past 10 years only 3 have, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Josh McCown. In the past 20 years a total of 8 QBs have Played in an NFL game at the age of 40 or older. Two thirds of the QBs that have played a game at the age of 40 or older did so over 20 years ago.
So, the narrative that QBs are playing into their 40s more often now than in the past is False. Also, only 3 QBs that played into their 40s can be considered to have played Good by any reasonable measure, such as wins over the age of 40 in relation to the years played at 40 and over, and that would be Brady, Brees, and Favre. So, to that end it's also a False narrative that QBs are Now playing Good into their 40s. The recency of Brady and Brees in their 40s and their greatness makes it seem so, but it's not.
**Note: Aaron Rodgers turned 40 in December of 2023. He got injured in the first game of the 2023 season and was placed on injured reserve. He has not yet played in a game at the age of 40. The 2024 season will be his first time doing so provided he is able to play in 2024 or after. **
The video in the link below is excellent and covers these players with more detail. There are some Awesome Saints clips in the video so It's A Must Watch. The video below is by KTO on YouTube:
Current NFL QBs that may Play at the age of 40 or older are listed below. I'm starting with the age of 30 because even at that age with 10 years remaining, it's too hard to speculate beyond 10 years who might make it.
Aaron Rodgers - 40 - Rodgers is coming off season ending injury. If he can play at a high level for at least 2 more years without injury he should get in the range of Brees and Favre for number of wins at the age of 40 and older.
Joe Flacco - 39 - Flacco was a good story coming off the couch making a comeback in 2023. He signed with the Colts to back up Richardson this yr. Barring injury to Richardson, Flacco won't be throwing any passes in the near future.
Brian Hoyer - 38 - Hoyer is currently an unsigned free agent. He's been a perennial backup his entire career except for one season. It remains to be seen if he gets signed and plays a single down again. The hourglass is almost empty.
Josh Johnson -37 - Will turn 38 prior to the start of the 2024 season. Has been on 14 different teams, a league record. A career backup. Won't be a starter. May not make a squad. Can he hang around another 3 years or more?
Andy Dalton - 36 - Dalton has had a relative steady career and has been injury free for most of it. Currently he is a backup QB behind Bryce Young with the Panthers. He could make it to 40, but if so, it would purely be as a backup.
Matthew Stafford - 36 - 3 years now removed from winning a SB, Stafford had a very good year in 2023. He has the talent and the arm strength to play. He's been hurt a bit lately. If he can stay healthy, he could play a while longer.
Case Keenum - 36 - Keenum's days as a starter have been in the rearview mirror for over 5 years now. Currently a backup in Houston behind C.J. Stroud, Case won't play anytime soon unless Stroud gets injured. Times ticking for him.
Kirk Cousins - 35 - Cousins will turn 36 before the 2024 season starts. He's had a solid career to this point. Coming off a season ending injury. If he can stay healthy for another 5 years without a falloff, he could make it if he desires to.
Russell Wilson - 35 - Wilson will turn 36 during the 2024 season. His play has fallen off the past few years. Can he turn it back on? His health hasn't been a concern. Will he want to play into his later years if he's regulated to a backup?
Ryan Tannehill - 35 - He'll turn 36 prior to the start of the 2024 season. Has been a starter and a backup. Future as a starter doubtful at this point. A good athlete. Does he have what it takes to hang around another 5 years or more?
Tyrod Taylor - 34 - Taylor will turn 35 before the 2024 season begins. Hasn't been the main QB since 2017. A perennial veteran backup at this point. He won't get snaps behind Rodgers. Can he hang around another 6 years or more?
Blaine Gabbert - 34 - He'll turn 35 during the 2024 season. Started his 1st two years in JAX. Has been a backup the past 7 years. Currently unsigned as a free agent. Playing days are numbered. Vet ins. policy at best. Won't get there.
Taysom Hill - 33 - Will turn 34 before season starts. The Swiss Army Knife. A role player with only 9 career starts who has a 7-2 record as a starter. Will remain a backup unless injury to starter. Plays rough. Can he make it to 40?
Matt Barkley - 33- Will turn 34 at the beginning of the 2024 season. Never a day 1 starter. In and out of the league. Currently a free agent. Highly unlikely he will be on a roster 7 years from now much less get to play.
A. J. McCarron - 33 -Will turn 34 at the beginning of the 2024 season. Currently playing in the UFL. In his 7 years in the NFL he's only started 4 games. May never be on an NFL roster again. Won't be on one 7 years from now.
Geno Smith - 33 - Two major knee injuries. Languished for 6 years. Has had a resurgence the past 2 years playing at a high level. Currently Seahawks starter. Does he have 8 years or more left in him? Time will tell.
Derek Carr - 33 - A starter his entire 10 years so far going into his 11th season. A bit nicked up in 2023 but tough as nails. Has only missed 1 game due to injury in his career. Without injury or falloff, he has a chance to make it.
Jimmy Garoppolo - 32 - Will turn 33 during the 2024 season. 63 career starts. Excellent career winning percentage at 68%. Currently signed as a backup to Stafford for the Rams. 8 years away to 40. Doubtful to see snaps then.
Trevor Siemian - 32 - Will turn 33 during the 2024 season. Journeyman who's been on 6 teams. Currently a free agent. Last entered season as a day 1 starter 8 years ago. 8 years from now he'll be working in a different field.
Brandon Allen 31 - Will turn 32 at the beginning of the 2024 season. A career backup now on his 5th team. Has seen a few snaps due to the injury to Joe Burrow. Will be out of the league before he gets his first grey hair.
Carson Wentz - 31 - Will turn 32 at the end of the 2024 season. Has started 93 games in his career. Was a backup last year and signed with KC this year as a backup to Mahomes. Healthy. 9 years is an eternity in the NFL. I doubt it.
Jacoby Brisset - 31 - Will turn 32 at the end of the 2024 season. Veteran presence in Patriots QB room in 2024. Starter as recent as 2022 for the Browns. 48 career starts on bad teams. Backup insurance to rookie QB Drake May. Nah!
Dak Prescott - 30 - Dak will turn 31 prior to the start of the 2024 season. A solid start to his career now entering his 9th year. Questions about his future in Dallas. 10 years is a long time yet to get there. With good health, he could.
Marcus Mariota - 30 - Will turn 31 during the 2024 season. Veteran entering his 10th season with 74 career starts. Good athlete. Now on his 5th team as a backup to Jayden Daniels. Won't be on a roster 10 years from now.
The above list includes 24 NFL QBs that are the possible candidates to play at the age of 40 or over within the next 10 years. It's mostly an underwhelming group. If the criteria is based on Playing Good into their 40s that leaves plenty of doubt. The only players I would consider having a realistic chance of achieving that would be Rodgers (a certainty), Flacco (If Richardson gets injured), Stafford (If he stays healthy), Geno (With a lot of luck), Cousins (If he doesn't break down with the Clowns), Russ (If Ciara let's him), Carr (If the Saints line doesn't get him killed), Dak (If he stays healthy and doesn't have a major drop-off). That's 8 with only 1 as a sure thing over the next 10 years. Most likely only a few in this group make it to 40 or over with Good play at that age.
Again, this is the crop of QBs to consider in the next 10 years.
So, to close the door on the False narrative that more QBs today are playing Good into their 40s, it's been debunked, and the trend will more than likely go down, not up.
Who from the above list do you think will play Good at the age of 40 or over?
A better age to suggest the end of an NFL QBs career is imminent begins at 38 and they quit before 40. Most QBs don't make it to the age of 38. If they do, usually that's an age that begins a huge drop off in their ability to play. For example, here's a handful of the better QBs of their era that finished playing at the ages of 38 and 39. Peyton Manning (39), Philip Rivers (39), Ben Roethlisberger (39), Rich Gannon (39), Jim Plunkett (39), Ken Stabler (39), Dan Marino (38), Joe Montana (38), Sammy Baugh (38), Y.A. Tittle (38), Kurt Warner (38), John Elway (38), Steve Young (38), Eli Manning (38), Randall Cunningham (38), Fran Tarkenton (38), Phil Simms (38).
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