As strange as this may seem… (playoff seeding) (1 Viewer)

[Bill]

Ok so the scenario of losing to the rams but beating the bucs gives both teams the same overall records and same division records. This website indicates we would hold the tie breaker so I guess that's common games played.

NFC South standings: Buccaneers, Saints separate from Falcons as favorites in NFL playoff picture | Sporting News

Tampa Bay is in the driver's seat, leading the NFC South while looking for a third consecutive division title. Here's looking at whether the Buccaneers can keep first place over the final three weeks of the 2023 NFL season.

www.sportingnews.com

NFC South standings, playoff picture​

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)​

The Buccaneers have the same overall record as the Saints, but they also have the head-to-head tiebreaker from winning at New Orleans in Week 4. The Bucs also have a superior division record (3-1) than the Saints (2-2).

The Buccaneers have a mixed bag of closing games. They get the AFC South-leading Jaguars first at home in Week 16. They play at the Panthers to close the season in Week 18. But in between, it's the big one, hosting the Saints in a series rematch. The Bucs can likely afford losing to the Jaguars if they win the final two games to go 5-1 in the division and sweep the Saints.

2. New Orleans Saints (7-7)​

The Saints go from a favorable home matchup with the Giants to face the NFC wild-card challenging Rams on the road, on a short week (Thursday night) in Week 16. They stay on the road for that Week 17 game at Tampa Bay before finishing with Atlanta at home.

There's a better chance for the Saints to win out than the Buccaneers. They can also afford to lose once outside of the division, but they really need to win at least the last two games. The Saints than can finish 2-1, get to nine wins and have a shot of either finishing one game ahead of the Buccaneers or even and getting the tiebreaker.

Sad to say but the biggest reason why the Bucs became a legitimate threat to the Saints (besides the fact that the Saints have lost important NFC matchups) is that Baker Mayfield has played much better than anyone could have foreseen when Tampa Bay picked him up. Without Mayfield making their offense viable, the Bucs wouldn't have been much better than the Panthers. When the Saints go to Tampa, our defensive pass rush must be working like it did against the Giants, or else Baker will have a field day moving his offense. It's really that simple.

 

[St. Geezy]

By 22 and 18 points and not surrendering a single TD.


What’s the alternative?

What would have pleased you?

Would you rather they lost them both and this season be over last week?

I swear this board can’t enjoy anything aside from the 2 months leading up to the draft anymore.

Great perspective. Though there were some sloppy moments, we did in fact do what you are supposed to do to bad teams, and that in itself is encouraging.

 

[J.T.]

If we beat the Rams on Thursday, just need to win either Tampa or Atlanta and odds are heavily in favor for a playoff appearance.

If we lose to Rams, we need both division games for any real chance.

Gotta have two of the last three, but interestingly enough, the Rams game is the most impactful.

Yes, I just ran a few playoff generator scenarios. If we beat the Rams, our chance of getting the #7 seed go up dramatically. The #4 seed depends on beating the Bucs and Atlanta, and also improves to 100% if we win all three games.

 

[BIGSAINTSFAN]

Beating LAR next week on the road would please me personally. And I don’t care if they only beat them by one point. Just win

I don’t want the Saints to lose, but I’m not gonna give a hoot when they beat terrible teams lol. They did what they were supposed to do. Now it’s time for them to do something that they’re not supposed to do.

Last I checked, the Rams are a mediocre 7 and 7 team. Should the Saints be intimidated by them???

 

[Custumz97]

Last I checked, the Rams are a mediocre 7 and 7 team. Should the Saints be intimidated by them???

Such a loaded question. Never know what Saints team will show up, but that also isn’t necessarily new. Kyren Williams is running hard and the Rams will run him, and Kupp/Nacua could really do some damage.

So the answer is, they could be scary, but our own team could be what the Saints should be more afraid of. Do they show up and play ball? That could be scary for Rams. Do we play like we did against the Lions and Jags? That would be scary for us.

 

[Bill]

Last I checked, the Rams are a mediocre 7 and 7 team. Should the Saints be intimidated by them???

Yes, the Win/Loss records are the same. But let's examine the records closely...

The Rams' 7 wins have come against teams with a combined Win/Loss record of 31-39
The opponents they beat have won 44% of their games.
The Rams' 7 losses have come against teams with a combined Win/Loss record of 63-35
The opponents they lost to have won 64% of their games.

The Saints' 7 wins have come against teams with a combined Win/Loss record of 28-56
The opponents we beat have only won 33% of their games.
The Saints' 7 losses have come against teams with a combined Win/Loss record of 52-46
The opponents we lost to have only won 53% of their games.

The hard reality is that the Rams' 7 victories came against teams that currently have an 11% better winning percentage than the winning percentage of the teams that the Saints have beaten. And the Rams' 7 losses came against opponents that have an 11% better winning percentage than the teams that the Saints have beaten.

This proves that comparing Win/Loss records is not always 'apples to apples'. It was harder for the Rams to have earned a 7-7 record than the 7-7 record we have also posted. The Rams have swept all in their division except for the 49ers, and they still have one more game against them. The Saints already have two losses in the division with two more remaining which are now considered to be 'must wins' in order for the Saints to have a shot at a division crown.

Anyone who considers tonight's game to be a toss up needs to take these numbers to heart. The Saints must have a complete game to come back home with a victory.

 

[Mrjack535]

So question that may have been answered elsewhere. If the Saints lose to the Rams but win the other two games (Bucs/Failclowns) and the Bucs win every remaining game but the Saints, who goes to the playoffs? Or specifically who wins the division? We'd both have the same records and have split the head to heads. What are the other tie breakers?

Bucs would win the division based on common games. 8-4 vs 6-6. Difference is the Bucs went 3-1 against the nfc north and the saints went 1-3.

 

[jahsoul357]

Sad to say but the biggest reason why the Bucs became a legitimate threat to the Saints (besides the fact that the Saints have lost important NFC matchups) is that Baker Mayfield has played much better than anyone could have foreseen when Tampa Bay picked him up. Without Mayfield making their offense viable, the Bucs wouldn't have been much better than the Panthers. When the Saints go to Tampa, our defensive pass rush must be working like it did against the Giants, or else Baker will have a field day moving his offense. It's really that simple.

The crazy thing is this really shows us 2 things:
-The extra seeding allows marginal teams a shot at the playoffs
-It shows how down bad the NFC South is..lol

I was talking to a buddy of mine at work who is a Bucs fan and I told him Baker is getting a lot of love for having the Bucs at 7-7 after Week 15..lol

 

[BIGSAINTSFAN]

Yes, the Win/Loss records are the same. But let's examine the records closely...

The Rams' 7 wins have come against teams with a combined Win/Loss record of 31-39
The opponents they beat have won 44% of their games.
The Rams' 7 losses have come against teams with a combined Win/Loss record of 63-35
The opponents they lost to have won 64% of their games.

The Saints' 7 wins have come against teams with a combined Win/Loss record of 28-56
The opponents we beat have only won 33% of their games.
The Saints' 7 losses have come against teams with a combined Win/Loss record of 52-46
The opponents we lost to have only won 53% of their games.

The hard reality is that the Rams' 7 victories came against teams that currently have an 11% better winning percentage than the winning percentage of the teams that the Saints have beaten. And the Rams' 7 losses came against opponents that have an 11% better winning percentage than the teams that the Saints have beaten.

This proves that comparing Win/Loss records is not always 'apples to apples'. It was harder for the Rams to have earned a 7-7 record than the 7-7 record we have also posted. The Rams have swept all in their division except for the 49ers, and they still have one more game against them. The Saints already have two losses in the division with two more remaining which are now considered to be 'must wins' in order for the Saints to have a shot at a division crown.

Anyone who considers tonight's game to be a toss up needs to take these numbers to heart. The Saints must have a complete game to come back home with a victory.

In simpler terms, THE RAMS are what their record say they are. 7 and 7. We all know the Saints are a better team than what they've shown, but again they are what their record say they are, 7 and 7. We truly won't know who the better team is until the game is over tonight. I think the Saints can win tonight.

 

[Bill]

In simpler terms, THE RAMS are what their record say they are. 7 and 7. We all know the Saints are a better team than what they've shown, but again they are what their record say they are, 7 and 7. We truly won't know who the better team is until the game is over tonight. I think the Saints can win tonight.

While this is true in general terms, the better team doesn't always win due to so many intangibles that can happen in a game. Penalties & Takeaways are the great equalizers. Hopefully we will have less of the former and more of the latter.

 

[SweetT]

The Mediocrity is real!

Thank you. I hear so many people calling this parity, but it’s not. It’s just a bunch of highly inconsistent teams that wins convincingly one week, only to get embarrassed the next. Only their records shows average but it’s just a bunch of inconsistency.

 

[Bill]

Thank you. I hear so many people calling this parity, but it’s not. It’s just a bunch of highly inconsistent teams that wins convincingly one week, only to get embarrassed the next. Only their records shows average but it’s just a bunch of inconsistency.

Right. Unless the 49ers start to inexplicably falter down the stretch, we all know how this season is going to end.

 

[oodank]

Saints have been playing better football last few weeks.
Rams have been playing better football last few weeks.
Both teams riding confidence and scoring points.

This will be a really good Thursday night game to kickoff the weekend!!

 

[Bill]

Saints have been playing better football last few weeks.
Rams have been playing better football last few weeks.
Both teams riding confidence and scoring points.

This will be a really good Thursday night game to kickoff the weekend!!

You can't know how much I hope you are correct. Especially if it turns out to be a great one for us!

 

[BIGSAINTSFAN]

While this is true in general terms, the better team doesn't always win due to so many intangibles that can happen in a game. Penalties & Takeaways are the great equalizers. Hopefully we will have less of the former and more of the latter.

I AGREE!!