Carr and completed air yards—a few plays from the Bears game (1 Viewer)

[Rouxble]

In light of Loomis’ comment about wanting to increase completed air yards (we currently rank 22nd), I wanted to highlight a few plays where we left some yards on the table for one reason or another. Against the Bears, Carr had the 7th lowest intended air yards in a game this season, with only six of his 35 attempts going 10+ yards downfield.

Daniel and Brees already broke down the opportunity missed to Shaheed on the pylon route, so here are a few others.

3rd Quarter - 15:00 - 1st and 10

Everyone was asking where Michael Thomas was, and he gets open over the middle on this play. Carr locks in on a likely alert route (Johnson) that gets taken away by the CB getting depth. When you lock in on the alert, everything else is late, so Carr scrambles to salvage the play.

View attachment RPReplay_Final1699323276.mov

3rd Quarter - 11:52 - 3rd & 8

Here the pressure limits any real opportunities, although it appears Carr is going to check this one down. Thomas again breaks open over the middle but the play probably has a low chance of success with Carr not even having enough time to dump it off.

View attachment RPReplay_Final1699323598.mov

3rd Quarter - 3:27 - 1st and 10

Here pressure limits Carr from doing much, you can see both Hill and Bowden get open downfield but Carr is already running away from inside pressure. Better protection may have helped, but at the same time Carr seemed to want to go to Shaheed on this play.

I like the design with AK motioning out like it will be a swing screen with Bowden and Hill as blockers, but both receivers get vertical and find open space that we don’t get to take advantage of.

View attachment RPReplay_Final1699323706.mov

3rd quarter - 2:00 - 3rd & 10

Another play foiled by pressure. Hill gets about as wide open as you can get, but Carr has to get rid of the ball early to Johnson, setting up a punt.

View attachment RPReplay_Final1699324030.mov

4th quarter - 9:46 - 3rd and 4

In this one everybody gets picked up, but Carr locks in on Thomas’ 1v1 concept to get rid of the ball quickly. If he reads the dagger concept, you can see the big play opportunity we miss right in the middle of the field.

View attachment RPReplay_Final1699324721.mov

4th quarter - 3:52 - 3rd and 9

Here Carr has time again but locks in on Michael Thomas. Olave is headed for a TD if Carr doesn’t lock on to a route that would have been short of the sticks anyway.

View attachment RPReplay_Final1699325100.mov

In all, it’s a combination of issues, from Carr locking onto a receiver or not trusting his protection, to Carr just not having any protection. The plays are getting receivers open, but we need to continue to grow as an offense to hit them. Fans are right, we should have won by more points, but these videos show we likely left a lot of points on the field when the chances were there.

 

[FooDoo]

The theme to all of these is the right play was called to beat the D, but the OL got beat. There were open receiver in all the plays.

As the OP stated, when the OL provided a clean pocket, Carr locked onto Thomas instead of the open receivers. CGM is no longer an elite receiver.

 

[Rouxble]

The theme to all of these is the right play was called to beat the D, but the OL got beat. There were open receiver in all the plays.

As the OP stated, when the OL provided a clean pocket, Carr locked onto Thomas instead of the open receivers. CGM is no longer an elite receiver.

Tough to attack vertically when you can’t protect, but we also had issues of a different variety where we locked in on a receiver/concept when someone else was open for a higher percentage play with YAC opportunities elsewhere (on shorter throws).

Another thing that drives me crazy is our inability to block WR and swing screens, we get the +1 looks we want but the blocking fails. It doesn’t need to be a 10 yard gain every time, but it seems we can barely get to the LOS.

 

[meily]

The theme to all of these is the right play was called to beat the D, but the OL got beat. There were open receiver in all the plays.

As the OP stated, when the OL provided a clean pocket, Carr locked onto Thomas instead of the open receivers. CGM is no longer an elite receiver.

Thats not what I see. I see random plays where there was no completion and in retrospect we are yet again judging Carr on a supposedly "missed opportunity", but you can pull these same kind of 4-6 second clips on Patrick Mahomes on any of his incompletions.

The defense is flowing toward the ball so what you think is an open receiver is really just the defense moving toward the play.

 

[Deuuuuce]

It’s hilarious how people judge a qb by birds eye view photos. He missed some opportunities, yes, but none of us have any idea what its like to have 300 lb guys running full speed to sack you, while you have to read the defense , make the right decision, and throw it accurately and safely away from defenders to avoid turnovers. What may look open to you may be a difficult throw that Carr doesn’t feel comfortable making. Maybe he’s intentionally avoiding one side of the field because the DBs are good at baiting and picking the ball off. This monday morning (or in this case friday afternoon) quarterbacking is hilarious to me.

 

[BreesHOF2024]

I’ll take a 10 play TD drive all day over shot plays, our offense is humming, just keep it up

 

[Deuuuuce]

I’ll take a 10 play TD drive all day over shot plays, our offense is humming, just keep it up

Remember when everyone was saying he held on to the ball too long? Now that he’s getting it out faster people still find something to complain about.

 

[Rouxble]

It’s hilarious how people judge a qb by birds eye view photos. He missed some opportunities, yes, but none of us have any idea what its like to have 300 lb guys running full speed to sack you, while you have to read the defense , make the right decision, and throw it accurately and safely away from defenders to avoid turnovers. What may look open to you may be a difficult throw that Carr doesn’t feel comfortable making. Maybe he’s intentionally avoiding one side of the field because the DBs are good at baiting and picking the ball off. This monday morning (or in this case friday afternoon) quarterbacking is hilarious to me.

First of all, thanks for being the only member to follow me. I know you’re always itching for an opportunity to disagree with me.



Second, I blamed pressure on the majority of the problems. That said, if the pressure gets picked up, but he’s afraid to read the primary concept as you suggest, then what a waste of $150m. Even Daniel and Brees pointed out how Carr needed to look for that pylon route when everyone got picked up.

Third, as much as everyone wants PC to be a moron, he is smart enough to not call plays that Carr isn’t comfortable with. Every team in the league is going to give the QB some input on what goes in the game plan and what stays out, and if Carr says “I don’t like dagger”, PC isn’t going to call it. I don’t think Carr has any problem taking those throws, but he looked much less comfortable this week compared to last. The difference? He was under pressure on over 30% of dropbacks compared to 15% the prior week.

As I’ve said many times, as the protections improve and Carr’s comfort with the offense improves, he should start hitting some of these throws (not 100% obviously). The scheme works if we can block and execute, even though a fair amount of the board believes we can’t get guys open.

 

[ShortFuzed9]

In light of Loomis’ comment about wanting to increase completed air yards (we currently rank 22nd), I wanted to highlight a few plays where we left some yards on the table for one reason or another. Against the Bears, Carr had the 7th lowest intended air yards in a game this season, with only six of his 35 attempts going 10+ yards downfield.

Daniel and Brees already broke down the opportunity missed to Shaheed on the pylon route, so here are a few others.

3rd Quarter - 15:00 - 1st and 10

Everyone was asking where Michael Thomas was, and he gets open over the middle on this play. Carr locks in on a likely alert route (Johnson) that gets taken away by the CB getting depth. When you lock in on the alert, everything else is late, so Carr scrambles to salvage the play.

View attachment RPReplay_Final1699323276.mov

3rd Quarter - 11:52 - 3rd & 8

Here the pressure limits any real opportunities, although it appears Carr is going to check this one down. Thomas again breaks open over the middle but the play probably has a low chance of success with Carr not even having enough time to dump it off.

View attachment RPReplay_Final1699323598.mov

3rd Quarter - 3:27 - 1st and 10

Here pressure limits Carr from doing much, you can see both Hill and Bowden get open downfield but Carr is already running away from inside pressure. Better protection may have helped, but at the same time Carr seemed to want to go to Shaheed on this play.

I like the design with AK motioning out like it will be a swing screen with Bowden and Hill as blockers, but both receivers get vertical and find open space that we don’t get to take advantage of.

View attachment RPReplay_Final1699323706.mov

3rd quarter - 2:00 - 3rd & 10

Another play foiled by pressure. Hill gets about as wide open as you can get, but Carr has to get rid of the ball early to Johnson, setting up a punt.

View attachment RPReplay_Final1699324030.mov

4th quarter - 9:46 - 3rd and 4

In this one everybody gets picked up, but Carr locks in on Thomas’ 1v1 concept to get rid of the ball quickly. If he reads the dagger concept, you can see the big play opportunity we miss right in the middle of the field.

View attachment RPReplay_Final1699324721.mov

4th quarter - 3:52 - 3rd and 9

Here Carr has time again but locks in on Michael Thomas. Olave is headed for a TD if Carr doesn’t lock on to a route that would have been short of the sticks anyway.

View attachment RPReplay_Final1699325100.mov

In all, it’s a combination of issues, from Carr locking onto a receiver or not trusting his protection, to Carr just not having any protection. The plays are getting receivers open, but we need to continue to grow as an offense to hit them. Fans are right, we should have won by more points, but these videos show we likely left a lot of points on the field when the chances were there.

He leaves a few big plays out there each game

 

[Rouxble]

I’ll take a 10 play TD drive all day over shot plays, our offense is humming, just keep it up

I’m all about those sustained drives, and made a thread earlier in the season on how we needed more of them. That said, if we are going to be ok with less than four air yards per attempt, we could have saved a lot of money on a QB. We took more calculated shots against the Colts, and we had a few opportunities here if all the pieces would have fallen into placex

 

[Rouxble]

He leaves a few big plays out there each game

It will continue to be up and down this season, but the Colts game was a better indicator than the Bears game of what this offense can do when all the pieces are working.

 

[Rouxble]

Thats not what I see. I see random plays where there was no completion and in retrospect we are yet again, judging Carr on a supposedly "missed opportunity", but you can pull these same kind of 4-6 second clips on Patrick Mahomes on any of his incompletions.

The defense is flowing toward the ball so what you think is an open receiver is really just the defense following the ball.

Pretty sure I eliminated the plays like the one you described (flowing away from the ball), which play from the OP shows that?

 

[Deuuuuce]

First of all, thanks for being the only member to follow me. I know you’re always itching for an opportunity to disagree with me.



Second, I blamed pressure on the majority of the problems. That said, if the pressure gets picked up, but he’s afraid to read the primary concept as you suggest, then what a waste of $150m. Even Daniel and Brees pointed out how Carr needed to look for that pylon route when everyone got picked up.

Third, as much as everyone wants PC to be a moron, he is smart enough to not call plays that Carr isn’t comfortable with. Every team in the league is going to give the QB some input on what goes in the game plan and what stays out, and if Carr says “I don’t like dagger”, PC isn’t going to call it. I don’t think Carr has any problem taking those throws, but he looked much less comfortable this week compared to last. The difference? He was under pressure on over 30% of dropbacks compared to 15% the prior week.

As I’ve said many times, as the protections improve and Carr’s comfort with the offense improves, he should start hitting some of these throws (not 100% obviously). The scheme works if we can block and execute, even though a fair amount of the board believes we can’t get guys open.

Lol i didnt even know i followed you. Maybe just a butt dial?

 

[Deuuuuce]

First of all, thanks for being the only member to follow me. I know you’re always itching for an opportunity to disagree with me.



Second, I blamed pressure on the majority of the problems. That said, if the pressure gets picked up, but he’s afraid to read the primary concept as you suggest, then what a waste of $150m. Even Daniel and Brees pointed out how Carr needed to look for that pylon route when everyone got picked up.

Third, as much as everyone wants PC to be a moron, he is smart enough to not call plays that Carr isn’t comfortable with. Every team in the league is going to give the QB some input on what goes in the game plan and what stays out, and if Carr says “I don’t like dagger”, PC isn’t going to call it. I don’t think Carr has any problem taking those throws, but he looked much less comfortable this week compared to last. The difference? He was under pressure on over 30% of dropbacks compared to 15% the prior week.

As I’ve said many times, as the protections improve and Carr’s comfort with the offense improves, he should start hitting some of these throws (not 100% obviously). The scheme works if we can block and execute, even though a fair amount of the board believes we can’t get guys open.

I’m just saying these arent easy throws? Some of them are 40 yards down the field. It’s not like it’s madden and you can throw from any angle, off your back foot etc. you have to step in to a throw like that. And depending on the down and distance, if you have a short easy completion, i can see why you’d miss guys down field. Happens.

 

[oodank]

Ok, so can we stay off the 'PC can't call plays' train once and for all please kindly and thank you.