China/Taiwan fight. (1 Viewer)

In the context of geopolitics and history, there really wouldn't be a pretext for making an analogy between Alaska deciding to secede from the US or how it might be comparable to Chinese claims that Taiwan is a breakaway province?

First and foremost, we purchased Alaska from the Russians at kind of then-bargain basement deals in 1867 between then-Secretary of State William Sewell and the Russian ambassador partly due to Russia's wish that their Alaskan colony didnt Falcons into British/Canadian hands. You may not be aware of this, but if the Russians hadn't sold us Alaska, their is a very good chance Alaska eventually becomes part of Canada because up until WWI, although Canada was its own sovereign, independent nation, Britain still controlled their foreign policy and from the 1830's till signing of the Entente Cordialle in 1907, Czarist Russia and UK were involved in a near-century long military, diplomatic chessmatch historians have called, "The Great Game". " The Great Game" was sort of the 19th century's Cold War and it involved territorial disputes from Balkans, Crimean War, Baku, Afghanistan, British control over India, British expedition to Tibet in 1903, dividing Persia(Iran) into spheres of influence, how British/French and Russians were arguing about how they were going to divide up the dwindling, unreformable, centuries-old Ottoman Empire, "sick man of Europe". Russia, amazingly during the Civil War, was a staunch Union ally, while the British held deep pro-Confederate sympathies, Lord Russell even argued before the House of Commons in 1864 for British military intervention to prevent a potential race war. Russia had also discovered immense oil, natural gas resources in Siberia in the early 1860's so it made Alaskan ownership a bit of a moot point by then.

Also, most Taiwanese, if they were polled or asked, likely wouldn't want to revert back to some one-party authoritian Communist regime opposed to a parliamentary democracy, they shouldn't be forced to accept or tolerate a compromise solution which makes that a distant possibility, its not fair to them. A Hong Kong-type solution wouldn't work either because Chinese Communist leadership has actually broken or bended the terms of the handover deal brokered between UK And China back in 1984 where Hong Kong would enjoy its long-cherished democratic institutions for 50 years after their handover, "two systems, one government " agreement. Based on how riot police handled and beat up pro-democracy demonstrators in Hong Kong 3 years ago amid accusations of press/media crackdowns, limiting civil liberties, individual rights of city citizens, arresting dissidents, honestly how can any reasonable, realistic Taiwanese politician, citizen take any claims of Chinese respecting their rights as face value? Theyll gradually bend then break the rules, albeit over a decade or two, of most or any agreements they make.
Agreed. We broke away from Great Britian and formed the most powerful nation on Earth. I can speak from
experience. The Taiwanes are fiercley independent.
 

Carriers have insane protection. I would think that keeping them out of range and ringed with Aegis Destroyers/Cruisers would up their survivability by a lot. But, I've been out of the circle for a long time, I don't know the current weapons that the Chinese have that are classified and the public doesn't know about. That hypersonic missile is deadly though, not sure we have anything to defend against it.
 
Agreed. We broke away from Great Britian and formed the most powerful nation on Earth. I can speak from
experience. The Taiwanes are fiercley independent.
Absolutely. Brother in law's soon to be wife speaks to this as well. She has little love or patience with China. They want and like their independence and have zero interest in being a state of China.
 
I have little love for the Chinese Communist Party (which is in no way Communist and would better be described as a business oligarchy) and am happy to condemn its dismal human rights record and its moral and political bankruptcy. However, it is completely ludicrous to pretend that China does not have a case for sovereignty over one of its own provinces. Taiwan is not after all an independent nation - it is essentially a breakaway province. Even the KMT who founded Taiwan in its modern state have never argued against this.

So does China have the right to rule its own province even if that province wants to break away? Well I imagine the US might want to have a say in Alaskan politics if it broke away from the republic.

What does amaze me is that other countries which do not have any territorial claims to Taiwan or China and which are geographically and culturally far removed from this region and dispute think they have the right to intervene militarily and provoke a major international war.

Now you can say 'we are the world's policeman' but that has no legal basis in international law. Who appointed you? Who are you answerable to? And on whose behalf do you govern?

And yes you can make a case on moral grounds that a democratic government has more moral validity than an unelected, unaccountable dictatorship but then you have to take a good look at the massive human rights abuses committed by the Nationalist Chinese in WW2, their collusion with Japanese forces guilty of massacres and ethnic cleansing all over China, and their military finances which were almost entirely driven in the early days by the illegal presence of their Narco army in the golden triangle (inside Burma and Thailand).

So it's hard to champion intervention from a moral position, international law, historical prerogative, or even geographical proximity. Leaving aside the 'ally' argument and whether a breakaway province can legally have an ally in international law (possibility) it comes down to the rather obvious factor that the US is not happy that its strategic and business influence in the Far East and its massive intelligence gathering operations in Taiwan are under threat. But if we are going to fight a war on those grounds against a country which wants to take control of its own province....just who is the invader?

This dispute has not blown up into a major war since 1945 so there is no reason to believe that calm heads will not prevail and the dispute will fizzle out.

Sorry, I will no doubt get flamed for this but these things are important to point out in a free society.
Taiwan might be a part of "China" but the CCP has never controlled Taiwan. So they can consider it a "breakaway province" but from the Taiwanese prospective, they were never controlled by the CCP. If they want to bring the Emperor back then maybe they have a point. You may as well consider the mainland as a breakaway province.

The only analogy I can make is if say, the CSA instead of surrendering fled to Cuba, and the USA could not finish the job because the British navy was too strong. I couldn't really justify invading Cuba on some historical claim.
 
Carriers have insane protection. I would think that keeping them out of range and ringed with Aegis Destroyers/Cruisers would up their survivability by a lot. But, I've been out of the circle for a long time, I don't know the current weapons that the Chinese have that are classified and the public doesn't know about. That hypersonic missile is deadly though, not sure we have anything to defend against it.

The USS Ronald Reagan is parked off the coast. Mainland China is about to behave very soon.
 
Taiwan might be a part of "China" but the CCP has never controlled Taiwan. So they can consider it a "breakaway province" but from the Taiwanese prospective, they were never controlled by the CCP. If they want to bring the Emperor back then maybe they have a point. You may as well consider the mainland as a breakaway province.

The only analogy I can make is if say, the CSA instead of surrendering fled to Cuba, and the USA could not finish the job because the British navy was too strong. I couldn't really justify invading Cuba on some historical claim.
Yeah, I think Cuba/USA is an apt comparison to Taiwan/China. Not exactly the same, but there are a lot of similarities.
 
I have little love for the Chinese Communist Party (which is in no way Communist and would better be described as a business oligarchy) and am happy to condemn its dismal human rights record and its moral and political bankruptcy. However, it is completely ludicrous to pretend that China does not have a case for sovereignty over one of its own provinces. Taiwan is not after all an independent nation - it is essentially a breakaway province. Even the KMT who founded Taiwan in its modern state have never argued against this.

So does China have the right to rule its own province even if that province wants to break away? Well I imagine the US might want to have a say in Alaskan politics if it broke away from the republic.

What does amaze me is that other countries which do not have any territorial claims to Taiwan or China and which are geographically and culturally far removed from this region and dispute think they have the right to intervene militarily and provoke a major international war.

Now you can say 'we are the world's policeman' but that has no legal basis in international law. Who appointed you? Who are you answerable to? And on whose behalf do you govern?

And yes you can make a case on moral grounds that a democratic government has more moral validity than an unelected, unaccountable dictatorship but then you have to take a good look at the massive human rights abuses committed by the Nationalist Chinese in WW2, their collusion with Japanese forces guilty of massacres and ethnic cleansing all over China, and their military finances which were almost entirely driven in the early days by the illegal presence of their Narco army in the golden triangle (inside Burma and Thailand).

So it's hard to champion intervention from a moral position, international law, historical prerogative, or even geographical proximity. Leaving aside the 'ally' argument and whether a breakaway province can legally have an ally in international law (possibility) it comes down to the rather obvious factor that the US is not happy that its strategic and business influence in the Far East and its massive intelligence gathering operations in Taiwan are under threat. But if we are going to fight a war on those grounds against a country which wants to take control of its own province....just who is the invader?

This dispute has not blown up into a major war since 1945 so there is no reason to believe that calm heads will not prevail and the dispute will fizzle out.

Sorry, I will no doubt get flamed for this but these things are important to point out in a free society.
As much as it pains me to say, I agree with most of the above.

What I don't get is the Cuba analogy. Assuming one blows past the indigenous peoples argument, mainland China has more claim to Taiwan than any other people in the world. The US Government has no such historical claim to Cuba.
 
So my thoughts on it are that we back Taiwan as it seems its the popular thing ( amongst Taiwanese ) and coincides with our own US interests ( read-Natl Sec )
Well, this is what it comes down to, doesn't it? I just prefer to be clear-eyed about what we choose to do.

From the Mainland China perspective, it is completely natural to expect reunification at some point, and by force if necessary. And we can pretend that it's about a people's self-determination for us, but if Taiwan had no US national security implication then, at best (or worst), it would be a Ukranian situation, with support from afar (meaning we wouldn't risk losing 3 carriers, many hundreds of warplanes and who knows how many US deaths).

In my mind, there's not a right or wrong about what the US should do. For myself, I want the US to retreat a bit from being the world police absent a clear and present danger to core US interests, or a clear mandate from a goodly portion of the rest of the world. I understand other Americans having a different view, but I'd expect that view to be applied consistently to other parts of the world.
 
Well, this is what it comes down to, doesn't it? I just prefer to be clear-eyed about what we choose to do.

From the Mainland China perspective, it is completely natural to expect reunification at some point, and by force if necessary. And we can pretend that it's about a people's self-determination for us, but if Taiwan had no US national security implication then, at best (or worst), it would be a Ukranian situation, with support from afar (meaning we wouldn't risk losing 3 carriers, many hundreds of warplanes and who knows how many US deaths).

In my mind, there's not a right or wrong about what the US should do. For myself, I want the US to retreat a bit from being the world police absent a clear and present danger to core US interests, or a clear mandate from a goodly portion of the rest of the world. I understand other Americans having a different view, but I'd expect that view to be applied consistently to other parts of the world.
Well, my Taiwanese in law would vehemently disagree with your take. She doesn't think China has any claim to Taiwan, historically or otherwise.
 

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