ESPN Analytics grades New Orleans Saints off-season with a lowly D (2 Viewers)

[Saint Jack]

I wouldn’t say good shot. They have the 3rd best shot or the 2nd lowest shot to win the division, whichever way you want to say it.

The Falcons are relying on a 35 plus year old coming off an Achilles tear and the Bucs won the division on a tiebreaker last year.
The Saints do have a good shot at winning the division.

 

[BBarnes]

The Falcons are relying on a 35 plus year old coming off an Achilles tear and the Bucs won the division on a tiebreaker last year.
The Saints do have a good shot at winning the division.

I’ll stick with Vegas on this one, they always know best. They have a shot, but +340 - +375 is far from good, but it’s close to just as good as the Bucs.

I think we struggle to get to 7-8 wins, but hey, surprises happen every year.

 

[Plow]

I think we struggle to get to 7-8 wins, but hey, surprises happen every year.

The Saints' strength of schedule in 2024 is virtually the same as 2023.

With that in mind, what has happened to the Saints this offseason to make them ~2 games worse than the 2023 Saints?

 

[BBarnes]

The Saints' strength of schedule in 2024 is virtually the same as 2023.

With that in mind, what has happened to the Saints this offseason to make them ~2 games worse than the 2023 Saints?

I don’t care what strength of schedule says. I get it, this year we have the 5th easiest, last year we had the 2nd easiest. However, we have some tough games out the gate where we likely start 1-4 or even 1-5 and could get to 1-7 although I don’t see that happening. The schedule this year and some of the matchups aren’t close to last years schedule regardless what SOS says beforehand.

If you don’t agree that’s fine, but again, Vegas knows way more than you or me about it. Last year we were a small fav to win the division. This year we are picked to finish third and over a +340 to win it. Yea, not close to last year.

 

[Plow]

I don’t care what strength of schedule says. I get it, this year we have the 5th easiest, last year we had the 2nd easiest. However, we have some tough games out the gate where we likely start 1-4 or even 1-5 and could get to 1-7 although I don’t see that happening. The schedule this year and some of the matchups aren’t close to last years schedule regardless what SOS says beforehand.

If you don’t agree that’s fine, but again, Vegas knows way more than you or me about it. Last year we were a small fav to win the division. This year we are picked to finish third and over a +340 to win it. Yea, not close to last year.

I hear that. I don't put much weight on SOS either. But I do look at the net changes in coaching and players from year-to-year and it seems that the Saints made a net gain in coaching and possibly a small gain on the player side. For those who are bullish, a bet on the Saints to win the Division might reap the rewards of favorable odds. And Vegas odds are a snapshot in time, that get updated constantly with the latest info. The Saints might come out of the gates hot, for all anyone knows. But all remains unknown until the games are played.

 

[EvilMike]

Like it or not, the salary cap issue does effect what talent is on the field. Every year we are in salary cap hell and have to ask players to restructure their contracts (which just pushes the problem down the line). Why would any top talent, being recruited by many teams, want to walk into that?

 

[Saint Jack]

I don’t care what strength of schedule says. I get it, this year we have the 5th easiest, last year we had the 2nd easiest. However, we have some tough games out the gate where we likely start 1-4 or even 1-5 and could get to 1-7 although I don’t see that happening. The schedule this year and some of the matchups aren’t close to last years schedule regardless what SOS says beforehand.

If you don’t agree that’s fine, but again, Vegas knows way more than you or me about it. Last year we were a small fav to win the division. This year we are picked to finish third and over a +340 to win it. Yea, not close to last year.

The Vegas odds aren’t that bad. That +340 is only about a game or a game and a half difference.

 

[sfidc3]

The Saints' strength of schedule in 2024 is virtually the same as 2023.

With that in mind, what has happened to the Saints this offseason to make them ~2 games worse than the 2023 Saints?

SOS before the season starts really isn’t a very reliable indicator….things change fast in the NFL….Nearly every year there are a few teams that improve significantly and a few that regress…..

I think that most of these less than stellar prognostications are due to the fact that DA is still the HC….IMO….

 

[AARPSaint]

SOS before the season starts really isn’t a very reliable indicator….things change fast in the NFL….Nearly every year there are a few teams that improve significantly and a few that regress…..

I think that most of these less than stellar prognostications are due to the fact that DA is still the HC….IMO….

SoS can be misleading for sure. The worst teams get the best draft picks, unless they trade them away. A bad team from 2023 could have a 2017 Saints draft, and that could make a massive difference.

Context matters as well. The first part of the Saints schedule is probably the toughest part. A lot of confidence can erode and send the season into a tailspin. But what if the Saints win a couple of these games?

 

[44slayer]

SOS before the season starts really isn’t a very reliable indicator….things change fast in the NFL….Nearly every year there are a few teams that improve significantly and a few that regress…..

I think that most of these less than stellar prognostications are due to the fact that DA is still the HC….IMO….

Agreed. You look at 23s schedule vs 24s schedule just by the QBs we face, and its not close. We were 0-4 vs QBs that youd rank as upper half. We faced 0 elite QBs in 23. Thats changing in 2024, much, much tougher sledding against teams with good QBs. Its a QB driven league. Teams with good QBs....win.

Secondly, the Panthers are almost single handedly driving that skew in numbers. We play them twice. In 2023 their record in our SoS calculation was 14-20 based on their 7-10 the year prior - which actually brought our SoS UP. This year the Panthers record in our SoS calc is 4-30 based on their 2-15 record last year, substantially bringing our SoS down. Just the Panthers added 10 more losses and 10 less wins to our SoS this year vs last year.

 

[Booker]

Until the Saints prove otherwise they are a mediocre team with a mediocre head coach. They couldn't win a weak division with the easiest schedule in the NFL last season.

I think that pretty much sums up the press treatment this team will get until they turn things around. It's a lazy take for sure, but they've been mediocre post-Brees, the coach is the literal embodiment of mediocre, the star players are getting older, and the team has perpetual cap issues.

As fans we will all hope for the best, particularly that a new offensive system will make a significant difference, but for someone less invested in the team I can see how that might just look like rearranging deck chairs on a sinking ship.

 

[silverbullet]

Owner, front office, coach and QB are the four most important things a team can have. This team gets no higher than a D in any of those categories,

Owner: "C-" - Gayle has shown she has too much loyalty to dudes just coasting till retirement. I'd grade her lower but at least she has no intentions of moving the team. She just has no idea what she's doing and trusts a bunch of lackeys.

FO: "D-" -The front office is arrogant and doubles down on bad decisions. Game has passed them by.

Coach: "F-"- The coach is among the worst in the NFL.

QB - "C-" - QB is a mediocre, polarizing career loser.


They changed none of the important four things. Everything else is just shuffling chairs on the deck of the Titanic. A D is a generous grade IMO.


Hiring a new OC is a positive step, but I'm not really impressed with Kubiak's past results. Not blowing future draft capital is a major win, so there's that. Continuing to extend old players is a bad move though and not biting the bullet and getting rid of Carr was dumb. But the worst is bringing back Allen. Just laughably bad.

 

[ilvdsnts]

Owner, front office, coach and QB are the four most important things a team can have. This team gets no higher than a D in any of those categories,

Owner: "C-" - Gayle has shown she has too much loyalty to dudes just coasting till retirement. I'd grade her lower but at least she has no intentions of moving the team. She just has no idea what she's doing and trusts a bunch of lackeys.

FO: "D-" -The front office is arrogant and doubles down on bad decisions. Game has passed them by.

Coach: "F-"- The coach is among the worst in the NFL.

QB - "C-" - QB is a mediocre, polarizing career loser.


They changed none of the important four things. Everything else is just shuffling chairs on the deck of the Titanic. A D is a generous grade IMO.


Hiring a new OC is a positive step, but I'm not really impressed with Kubiak's past results. Not blowing future draft capital is a major win, so there's that. Continuing to extend old players is a bad move though and not biting the bullet and getting rid of Carr was dumb. But the worst is bringing back Allen. Just laughably bad.

I would give Gayle a B. She has money to spend, is not afraid to spend money where her football people tell her to spend it. Most of the owners with her kind of money are medlers and can't get out of their own way and think they are fantasy FB players ie JJ, Mark Davis. I appreciate her willingness to spend but not meddle and her conviction to keeping the team in NOLA. Plus, she's never thrown a beer on a fan. Solid B for Ms Gayle.

 

[BBarnes]

I hear that. I don't put much weight on SOS either. But I do look at the net changes in coaching and players from year-to-year and it seems that the Saints made a net gain in coaching and possibly a small gain on the player side. For those who are bullish, a bet on the Saints to win the Division might reap the rewards of favorable odds. And Vegas odds are a snapshot in time, that get updated constantly with the latest info. The Saints might come out of the gates hot, for all anyone knows. But all remains unknown until the games are played.

Yup, never know man. Trust me, I’m hoping we blow every prediction out the water!

 

[SuperSaint]

Another idiot 'expert' who has no idea how we manage our cap the way we do, nothing to see here, move on...