ESPN Analytics grades New Orleans Saints off-season with a lowly D (1 Viewer)

[Alan12]

This same dude had the 49ers as the 8th best roster before last season. Behind 6 teams the 49ers finished with a better record than, including the 5-12 Chargers. The only team he ranked ahead of them that didn't have a better record was the Cowboys (who had the same record) and got absolutely WAXED by the 49ers 42-10 in Week 5.

He is not to be taken seriously.

ESPN's Seth Walder defends ranking 49ers 8th best roster in NFL on KNBR

It's July 6, so best we can do with football news is going over some random rankings and getting pissed off about it.

www.knbr.com

 

[SaintFanInATLHell2019]

I’ll stick with Vegas on this one, they always know best. They have a shot, but +340 - +375 is far from good, but it’s close to just as good as the Bucs.

I think we struggle to get to 7-8 wins, but hey, surprises happen every year.

Vegas doesn't set odds on actual team performance. They set odds to spread the sportsbook bets. And those are based on the perception of the bettors.

So, the line is 7.5 games becuse folks perception is that the Saints will win 7.5 games in 2024. Nothing more. Nothing less.

SFIAH

 

[BBarnes]

Vegas doesn't set odds on actual team performance. They set odds to spread the sportsbook bets. And those are based on the perception of the bettors.

So, the line is 7.5 games becuse folks perception is that the Saints will win 7.5 games in 2024. Nothing more. Nothing less.

SFIAH

lol I am aware on sports betting and numbers setting. There’s actually a 4 step process they use to set lines and each sportsbook actually uses they’re own set of “power ratings” to set an opening line and then allows the sharpes and squares to hit it with early action to shape the line.

Of course hoping to get 50% on both sides so they can guarantee the 5-10% money making on the vig that that would guarantee.

 

[SigFreudianSlip]

Moscona talking about this analytics article.

 

[Rexman100]

I hear that. I don't put much weight on SOS either. But I do look at the net changes in coaching and players from year-to-year and it seems that the Saints made a net gain in coaching and possibly a small gain on the player side. For those who are bullish, a bet on the Saints to win the Division might reap the rewards of favorable odds. And Vegas odds are a snapshot in time, that get updated constantly with the latest info. The Saints might come out of the gates hot, for all anyone knows. But all remains unknown until the games are played.

Good point, the Vegas line is a snap shot in time. What if this new offensive system quickly takes hold and the Saints win their first two games? Check Vegas again and you'll see 11 games as the ceiling from 8. Its easier for Vegas to quantify a teams success by the addition and subtraction of players. It cannot quantify a philosophy change or coaching changes. Best example, the Chargers add one of the best coaches ever in Jim Harbaugh, but yet bookmakers are expecting the Los Angeles Chargers to be slightly worse in 2023, as the team's over/under is set at 9.5 wins, compared to the 10 games they won last season. So there you go.

 

[HouseCall]

Good point, the Vegas line is a snap shot in time. What if this new offensive system quickly takes hold and the Saints win their first two games? Check Vegas again and you'll see 11 games as the ceiling from 8. Its easier for Vegas to quantify a teams success by the addition and subtraction of players. It cannot quantify a philosophy change or coaching changes. Best example, the Chargers add one of the best coaches ever in Jim Harbaugh, but yet bookmakers are expecting the Los Angeles Chargers to be slightly worse in 2023, as the team's over/under is set at 9.5 wins, compared to the 10 games they won last season. So there you go.

I agree. I’m always curious to see how often a team projected to be mediocre ends up making a deep playoff run. Obviously the 2006 Saints were projected to be one of the worst teams in the league and we all know how that went. But I wonder how many were projected to be in the .500 range and then went deep.

Vegas had the Saints at 8.5 wins last season and they hit 9. So it would seem that they had a decent read on things - but what legit happens last season if Carr doesn’t get killed in Green Bay? We probably win that game - we also maybe steal a close one we lost when Carr was playing though a bum shoulder. So at worst we are 10-7, maybe 11-6 and hosting a playoff game.

So Vegas was right - but did they factor in a serious injury to the QB? So it would stand to reason that they’d have been off on their estimate had Carr stayed healthy. Again, analytics are useful but they don’t add variables like an injury to the starting QB. They might factor in some broad injury metric - but an injury to the starting QB is devastating to a team usually.

Having said all that - I'm super excited for this season and what Kubiak might do. At the very least, it’ll be something different. But I’m still excited.

 

[Saint Greg]

Moscona talking about this analytics article.

Any negative article he’ll make a video about. Of course had we gone all out and signed a bunch of FAs that got us a better score, he’d criticize us for spending future $ on a team that doesn’t have a chance to win it all. The Saints cannot win with him.

 

[Rexman100]

I agree. I’m always curious to see how often a team projected to be mediocre ends up making a deep playoff run. Obviously the 2006 Saints were projected to be one of the worst teams in the league and we all know how that went. But I wonder how many were projected to be in the .500 range and then went deep.

Vegas had the Saints at 8.5 wins last season and they hit 9. So it would seem that they had a decent read on things - but what legit happens last season if Carr doesn’t get killed in Green Bay? We probably win that game - we also maybe steal a close one we lost when Carr was playing though a bum shoulder. So at worst we are 10-7, maybe 11-6 and hosting a playoff game.

So Vegas was right - but did they factor in a serious injury to the QB? So it would stand to reason that they’d have been off on their estimate had Carr stayed healthy. Again, analytics are useful but they don’t add variables like an injury to the starting QB. They might factor in some broad injury metric - but an injury to the starting QB is devastating to a team usually.

Having said all that - I'm super excited for this season and what Kubiak might do. At the very least, it’ll be something different. But I’m still excited.

good point about injuries. Dont forget the 99% of the time Foster Moreau doesnt drop the EZ td to defeat JAX.

 

[HouseCall]

good point about injuries. Dont forget the 99% of the time Foster Moreau doesnt drop the EZ td to defeat JAX.

Yup. And I’m not saying that we would have done a damn thing in the playoffs - but it would have felt much different going into this season. Though on the flip side - a playoff appearance last season likely means Carmichael stays on and I’m glad that isn’t the case.

 

[TomThomster7]

lol I am aware on sports betting and numbers setting. There’s actually a 4 step process they use to set lines and each sportsbook actually uses they’re own set of “power ratings” to set an opening line and then allows the sharpes and squares to hit it with early action to shape the line.

Of course hoping to get 50% on both sides so they can guarantee the 5-10% money making on the vig that that would guarantee.

Parlais vous francais ?

 

[BBarnes]

Parlais vous francais ?

Only English lol

 

[Geldo]

Don’t give a flying phut what oddsmakers say. Don’t care about the experts.,,,
I’ll go through all the normal highs and lows of following the black and gold.
Ecstatic and overconfident every win.
Downcast and doom prophesying every loss.
It’s just what comes with being a Saint.

 

[inetnawlins]

Thats a good thing. Many of the media had low predictions on the Saints going into the 2009 season..

And 2006.

 

[TomThomster7]

Only English lol

Doesn't matter . I wouldn't understand what you posted no matter what language you typed it in.

 

[BayouSAINTJoe]

This same dude had the 49ers as the 8th best roster before last season. Behind 6 teams the 49ers finished with a better record than, including the 5-12 Chargers. The only team he ranked ahead of them that didn't have a better record was the Cowboys (who had the same record) and got absolutely WAXED by the 49ers 42-10 in Week 5.

He is not to be taken seriously.

ESPN's Seth Walder defends ranking 49ers 8th best roster in NFL on KNBR

It's July 6, so best we can do with football news is going over some random rankings and getting pissed off about it.

www.knbr.com

SOmetimes the better roster doesn't win. Coaching absolutely matters in the NFL. Which is why you don't give up a HOF coach for a low 1st rounder.