From pass heavy to run balanced - Identifying where Klint Kubiaks philosophy can be felt the most. (1 Viewer)

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

This is based on pre-season, but I went back and charted last years pre-season games under Carmichael, and this years pre-season games under Kubiak to see If I could get a basic grasp of the offenses identity under Klint Kubiak.


My first area of interest was 1st and 10. I wanted to see our basic identity.


Carmichael

-80 1st and 10's
-55 Pass Plays
-25 Run Plays
69/31 Pass/Run Ratio on 1st down.

Kubiak

-75 1st and 10s
-35 Pass Plays
-42 Run Plays
56/44 Run Pass Ratio on 1st downs.

Anyalysis - Very skewered towards Pass first under Carmichael, while Kubiak is more run balanced. This is the type of offense Allen needs as a compliment to his defense.


My next area of interest is 2nd and 5 or less. I want to see who we are after a successful 1st down play of 5 or more.

Kubiak

-20 2nd and 5>
-11 Run Plays
-9 Pass Plays
55/45 Run Pass Ratio

Carmichael

-13 2nd and 5>
- 9 run plays
-4 pass plays
69/31 Pass/Run Ratio

Analysis - Carmichael was hyper predictable on 2nd and 5> (likely to run) and 1st and 10 (likey to pass). Kubiak apperas to be the antithesis of sneaky Pete.


My final point of interest is 2nd and 7+. I'd like to know who we slip into when things aren't going our way.

Kubiak

-34 2nd and 7+
-24 Pass
-10 Run
70/30 Pass Run Ratio

Carmichael

-44 2nd and 7+
-34 pass
-10 runs
77/23 Pass Run Ratio

Analysis - Kubiak spent less time in that down and distance than Carmichael. Both offenses get a little pass happy when they are uncomfortable but Carmichael was again more predictable. I charted Kubiak having a single game where he called pass 5x's in a row before breaking tendency with a run. Conversely, Carmichael had sequences of 10x passes, 7x passes, and 5x passes accross all 3 games before breaking tendency



Overall, the offense is going to look and flow differently under Kubiak. I don't know how many ppg were going to score, or if we'll improve on 3rd downs, but I know for a fact teams are going to have to defend the run when they play us. I know Carr will be asked to carry the load on offense far less, and I think less pressure on Carr in any capacity is a good thing.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Bonus Round* - I decided to look at 3rd and 7+ to see what we look like when poop hits the fan.

Kubiak
-23 3rd and 7+
-1 FG
-20 Pass
-2 Run
23/87 Run Pass Ratio


Carmichael
-26 3rd and 7+
-23 Pass
-3 Run
22/88 Run Pass Ratio

Analysis - 3rd and 7+ appears to be no man's land for most teams so the theory of more runs/draws that concedes downs isn't likely, or atleast it wasn't in pre-season. What I can highlight is Kubiak called one deep shot in those scenarios, while Carmichael dialed up seven. Extrapolated over a season and it amounts to two deep shots a game or 26 a season. Pick 26 plays last year that you would rather Carr have not been in a position to get his block knocked off while waiting for a deep route to develop on 3rd and 7+.

 

[blackngoldmike]

Good stuff man! I remember the days where Payton would be at his worst against teams that played good defense, ran the ball, used playaction, and ran the clock. It was a good recipe for opposing teams during a time when Payton refused to run the clock.

I think that we can become that too. Kamara is Kamara, judging from a small sample, it looks like Taysom might be pretty heavily featured in this offense as a RB/FB/HB/TE. If the line gels well enough to feature the run game, play action should really open things up. I don’t see us as a farrari offense at this juncture, not even top ten. But a top 15, highly efficient offense that continuously dominates TOP combined with what I think will be a top defense could yield many more wins than what’s being predicted.

Barring injuries of course

 

[SweetT]

This is based on pre-season, but I went back and charted last years pre-season games under Carmichael, and this years pre-season games under Kubiak to see If I could get a basic grasp of the offenses identity under Klint Kubiak.


My first area of interest was 1st and 10. I wanted to see our basic identity.


Carmichael

-80 1st and 10's
-55 Pass Plays
-25 Run Plays
69/31 Pass/Run Ratio on 1st down.

Kubiak

-75 1st and 10s
-35 Pass Plays
-42 Run Plays
56/44 Run Pass Ratio on 1st downs.

Anyalysis - Very skewered towards Pass first under Carmichael, while Kubiak is more run balanced. This is the type of offense Allen needs as a compliment to his defense.


My next area of interest is 2nd and 5 or less. I want to see who we are after a successful 1st down play of 5 or more.

Kubiak

-20 2nd and 5>
-11 Run Plays
-9 Pass Plays
55/45 Run Pass Ratio

Carmichael

-13 2nd and 5>
- 9 run plays
-4 pass plays
69/31 Pass/Run Ratio

Analysis - Carmichael was hyper predictable on 2nd and 5> (likely to run) and 1st and 10 (likey to pass). Kubiak apperas to be the antithesis of sneaky Pete.


My final point of interest is 2nd and 7+. I'd like to know who we slip into when things aren't going our way.

Kubiak

-34 2nd and 7+
-24 Pass
-10 Run
70/30 Pass Run Ratio

Carmichael

-44 2nd and 7+
-34 pass
-10 runs
77/23 Pass Run Ratio

Analysis - Kubiak spent less time in that down and distance than Carmichael. Both offenses get a little pass happy when they are uncomfortable but Carmichael was again more predictable. I charted Kubiak having a single game where he called pass 5x's in a row before breaking tendency with a run. Conversely, Carmichael had sequences of 10x passes, 7x passes, and 5x passes accross all 3 games before breaking tendency



Overall, the offense is going to look and flow differently under Kubiak. I don't know how many ppg were going to score, or if we'll improve on 3rd downs, but I know for a fact teams are going to have to defend the run when they play us. I know Carr will be asked to carry the load on offense far less, and I think less pressure on Carr in any capacity is a good thing.

 

[SirLoinSaint64]

I just don't want to see a pass on 2nd and 1,2, or 3. The past OC was terrible in that regard. Or, a 20 yard fade against the sideline where everything has to be perfect to convert on 3rd and 4 or 5. So frustrating. And while I'm at it, throws at or behind the line of scrimmage when there's 8+ yards to gain on 3rd down. Dang.

 

[Deuuuuce]

It’s early but it seems to me that there will be a purpose behind every playcall now, whether it’s to get ahead of the chains or to set up something later. With Carmichael there were zero adjustments in game, and teams knew what we were doing based on who was on the field. With Kubiak, it’s the opposite.

Again, it’s early, but I already like how they’re using Taysom this year as opposed to the last couple of years. Not sure why Carmichael never even tried Taysom in a Juszczyk type of role.

As far as play calling goes anything will be an improvement over last year. We’ll see if we have the players to execute.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Good stuff man! I remember the days where Payton would be at his worst against teams that played good defense, ran the ball, used playaction, and ran the clock. It was a good recipe for opposing teams during a time when Payton refused to run the clock.

I think that we can become that too. Kamara is Kamara, judging from a small sample, it looks like Taysom might be pretty heavily featured in this offense as a RB/FB/HB/TE. If the line gels well enough to feature the run game, play action should really open things up. I don’t see us as a farrari offense at this juncture, not even top ten. But a top 15, highly efficient offense that continuously dominates TOP combined with what I think will be a top defense could yield many more wins than what’s being predicted.

Barring injuries of course

I'll take a consistent top 15 offense that protects the defense over the offense that finished top 8 in scoring last year, but if you remove 3 high scoring games (Patriots, Falcons, Rams) that total drops to about top 22

 

[Plow]

Excellent work. Who had the higher percentage of total first downs compared to total snaps? I.e., who moved the chains better?

 

[J.T.]

That's really good stuff! I know that I've spent hours coming up with stats sometimes, so thanks for the work.

This season will live or die with the Defense being a Top 5 unit that can also generate turnovers. If Kubiak can keep the Offense clicking on the ground and keep Carr alive, they should make the playoffs.

 

[Rouxble]

I'll take a consistent top 15 offense that protects the defense over the offense that finished top 8 in scoring last year, but if you remove 3 high scoring games (Patriots, Falcons, Rams) that total drops to about top 22

You’re right that top 8 was a mirage, they don’t fire OC’s of top 10 offenses. By DVOA, we were the 17th best offense.

We were surprisingly the 11th best rushing offense, but my guess is that Hill’s runs were the driving factor there.

 

[Goatman Saint]

I just don't want to see a pass on 2nd and 1,2, or 3. The past OC was terrible in that regard. Or, a 20 yard fade against the sideline where everything has to be perfect to convert on 3rd and 4 or 5. So frustrating. And while I'm at it, throws at or behind the line of scrimmage when there's 8+ yards to gain on 3rd down. Dang.

If you have a good running game, 2nd and 2 is where you take your shot though. If it’s set up correctly, where defenses read run, the offense sets it up right and you have that one guy go for it (miss Henderson) and take your shot it can be the difference between a near TD or a 3rd and 2. With Hill on your team, 3rd and 2 is a pretty makable down and distance.


The problem with Payton’s offense, which became horrible at the end was the player personnel groupings let everyone know exactly what the play was. In the beginning with Brees this worked because Brees would throw to whoever got open. Although run plays everyone knew. Bush in the game was a pass, Ingram in was a run. Thomas was the only one who could do both. But towards the end Pete had it where he was putting in players for a specific play it seemed and that was how it was run. The creativity was just not there anymore and they didn’t have the player talent to make up for it.

 

[SuperSaint]

Great breakdown, well done.

 

[Artifactual]

I'll take a consistent top 15 offense that protects the defense over the offense that finished top 8 in scoring last year, but if you remove 3 high scoring games (Patriots, Falcons, Rams) that total drops to about top 22

It would be an equally fair assessment to remove the 3 lowest scoring games by the Saints last year. For example, the 3 lowest scoring games were against the Bucs (9 points), the Texans (13 points) and Falcons (15 points).

As a team, the Saints finished 10th in scoring, totaling 402 points, averaging 23.6 points per game.

When removing the 3 games with the lowest scoring output, the Saints averaged 26.2 points per game in the other 14 games last year.

26.2 points per game would have ranked the Saints 7th as a team. The top 9 teams in scoring all made the playoffs in 2023.

You can't win consistently in the NFL if you don't score enough points each game. Scoring under 20 points a game makes it highly unlikely to get a win.

The Saints scored less than 20 points in 6 games in 2023. They lost 5 out of those 6 games.

The Saints led the league in Points Scored over the final three games last season, averaging 31.0 points per game.

Great work on OP, EJW!

 

[cwesleyc]

My problem with Pete was the constant low percentage plays on 3rd and 4th down. Go routes, fades and slow developing deep routes. You’ve got to have these yards, and that’s what you called? It’s like he thought Derek Carr was good on deep balls so let’s throw it every chance we get. Got better at the end of the season. Too little, too late.