Is Minnesota For Real? (1 Viewer)

[RJ in Lafayette]

One of the fascinating questions going into this postseason is how far will the Vikings go.

In addition to win-loss record, another number used to determine how good or dominant a team is the net point differential--the number of points a team has scored minus the number of points it has given up. It usually tells what teams are really good and what teams have had an inordinate amount of good luck during the season.

Minnesota is currently 12-3 with a point differential of 5. I went back 10 years looking for teams that had a great record but a modest point differential. This is what I found.

In 2021, the Raiders finished 10-7 and had a point differential of minus 55.

In 2020, Cleveland finished 11-5 and had a point differential of minus 11.

In 2019, Seattle finished 11-5 and had a point differential of 7, and Houston finished 10-6 and had a point differential of minus 7.

In 2016, the Raiders finished 12-4 and had a point differential of 31, and Miami finished 10-6 and had a point differential of minus 17.

In 2014, Arizona finished 11-5 and had a point differential of 11.

In 2012, Indianapolis finished 11-5 and had a point differential of minus 30.

Good teams win close games, but when a team wins close game after close game, it usually means the team is getting more than its share of breaks and the team, while good, is not championship good. When the playoffs begin, the truly dominant teams emerge. And incidentally, this is the point differential numbers for the other top teams this season: Kansas City, 106; Buffalo, 157; Philadelphia, 137; Cincinnati, 86; Dallas, 131; and San Francisco, 145.

 

[BoNcHiE]

Yes.

 

[parlorcitysaint]

Cousins is a fabrication, in my eyes. Doesn't seem to win "the big game", but the team on the whole is real. They're playing together, and they're believing. Sometimes, that's what it takes.

 

[los226]

Inconsistent team that knows how to win tight games. Not a bad team, but I think consistency is a big part of winning a championship. They can’t stumble their way to a victory 3 or 4 games in a row once it’s down to the best of the best competition.

 

[RaginSaint93]

No they’re rigged because they have a Sean McVay prodigy

 

[Mojomajik9]

Cousins is a fabrication, in my eyes. Doesn't seem to win "the big game", but the team on the whole is real. They're playing together, and they're believing. Sometimes, that's what it takes.

Yeah Cousins is always a play or two away from turning back into a pumpkin. It’s hard to trust him. But the team as a whole? Yeah they’re a good squad. It’s just going to depend on if they get good Cousins or bad Cousins.

 

[Jesse Custer]

No. Their defense is godawful and they'll get bounced in the first round of the playoffs.

 

[football]

Luck always run out eventually

 

[HouseCall]

I’d say… possibly.

They have one of, if not the best WR in the game. Cousins is inconsistent but definitely capable of exceptional games. Dalvin Cook is very good.

The issue is how their defense holds up against a team like San Fran, Philly or Dallas in the post season.

They’ve proven to be a resilient bunch which can be huge in the playoffs.

So they have a shot but I think some things would have to break there way with seedlings and matchups.

 

[UFCSaint]

One of the fascinating questions going into this postseason is how far will the Vikings go.

In addition to win-loss record, another number used to determine how good or dominant a team is the net point differential--the number of points a team has scored minus the number of points it has given up. It usually tells what teams are really good and what teams have had an inordinate amount of good luck during the season.

Minnesota is currently 12-5 with a point differential of 5. I went back 10 years looking for teams that had a great record but a modest point differential. This is what I found.

In 2021, the Raiders finished 10-7 and had a point differential of minus 55.

In 2020, Cleveland finished 11-5 and had a point differential of minus 11.

In 2019, Seattle finished 11-5 and had a point differential of 7, and Houston finished 10-6 and had a point differential of minus 7.

In 2016, the Raiders finished 12-4 and had a point differential of 31, and Miami finished 10-6 and had a point differential of minus 17.

In 2014, Arizona finished 11-5 and had a point differential of 11.

In 2012, Indianapolis finished 11-5 and had a point differential of minus 30.

Good teams win close games, but when a team wins close game after close game, it usually means the team is getting more than its share of breaks and the team, while good, is not championship good. When the playoffs begin, the truly dominant teams emerge. And incidentally, this is the point differential numbers for the other top teams this season: Kansas City, 106; Buffalo, 157; Philadelphia, 137; Cincinnati, 86; Dallas, 131; and San Francisco, 145.

Same thing happened with Vikings several years ago. I remember thinking... This team feels a little overrated. Then they promptly got bounced from the playoffs.

 

[limeyjohn]

I honestly think they have as much chance as any other NFC team to make the Super Bowl, sometimes it is better to be really lucky than really good

 

[DoubleSaint]

They needed the refs to beat a terrible Saints team in London and still nearly lost.

If they don’t have the refs in the playoffs they are 1 and done.

 

[TribuneUK]

A better indicator is turnover differential. The best clubs typically cluster towards the top of those ranks.

Minnesota are a very respectable 5th (+6) and you'll recognise the quality of the only teams ahead of them (Dallas, Philadelphia, Baltimore and SF).

And in case you were brave enough to ask, the Saints rank dead last at a terrible -12, with only the fumbletastic Colts for company. The next worst club is at -5

 

[Saints 4 life]

I honestly think they have as much chance as any other NFC team to make the Super Bowl, sometimes it is better to be really lucky than really good

I would love to see the Vikings lose their 5th SB appearance. Maybe then they'd quit crying about 2009 bounties because they'd have something else to cry about.

 

[Nolan]

I think they are. Give me the battle tested team who knows how to win close games come playoff time.