It's Official - Reconciliation It Is (1 Viewer)

[Ice Bowl]

Well, it's on now, dog.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid formally informed Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell Thursday that he will use the budgetary process of reconciliation to try and pass a final round of changes to the health care bill.
It's unclear when the legislation will come up for a vote. Reconciliation only requires a simply majority whereas Democrats would need to win 60 votes in order to bypass a Republican-led filibuster.

Make My Day

I'm no fan of Reid, but I have to give him credit for one thing - he's normally a very shrewd vote-counter. Sounds like he thinks he's got 51. We'll find out soon enough, I guess.

 

[Ice Bowl]

Ouch. He must have enjoyed this shot he took at McConnell in the letter he sent him -

As you know, the vast majority of bills developed through reconciliation were passed by Republican Congresses and signed into law by Republican Presidents – including President Bush’s massive, budget-busting tax breaks for multi-millionaires. Given this history, one might conclude that Republicans believe a majority vote is sufficient to increase the deficit and benefit the super-rich, but not to reduce the deficit and benefit the middle class. Alternatively, perhaps Republicans believe a majority vote is appropriate only when Republicans are in the majority. Either way, we disagree.

 

[jpcdolphan]

Not quite the way that I hoped this would go down but something had to be done.

Letting the Republicans hold this thing up in filibuster and then turn around and say that the majority party wasn't doing anything was not proving to be a winning strategy for the Dems.

 

[Pleading the Fif]

GOP wins back House and Senate in November if Dems pass this on reconciliation.

 

[jpcdolphan]

GOP wins back House and Senate in November if Dems pass this on reconciliation.

It's possible simply because the Republicans will do nothing but demonize it for eight straight months, though Democrats have such an edge in seats that I wouldn't put any money on it.

However, it would happen just because of baseless hysteria mixed in with that demonizing of the bill.

It's not like eight months is long enough to change anything or for anyone to see any changes in services or increases in prices, assuming the worst case scenario that any of that happens.

 

[Ice Bowl]

I don't think it's likely at all. People vote on what's on the front page in September and October, not March.

 

[Pleading the Fif]

I don't think it's likely at all. People vote on what's on the front page in September and October, not March.

I think it's naive to think that an issue this big will go away in just a few months. To me at least, this is equivalent to a policy such as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and will dominate headlines into September and October and beyond.

 

[jpcdolphan]

I don't think it's likely at all. People vote on what's on the front page in September and October, not March.

Yeah, it has credence in an "I guess anything's possible" sort of way and, of course, the Republicans will make this priority number one.

But, come November, if costs haven't soared, people are still getting treated (with some people that previously were boxed out of insurance now starting to get it) and with no stories of "death panels" unplugging Grandma, the chances of this being the wedge issue for enough voters to overturn the huge advantage in seats that the Democrats currently enjoy is not too far above zero.

Now, if those employment numbers lose their recent inklings of peppiness...

 

[Pleading the Fif]

It's possible simply because the Republicans will do nothing but demonize it for eight straight months, though Democrats have such an edge in seats that I wouldn't put any money on it.

However, it would happen just because of baseless hysteria mixed in with that demonizing of the bill.

It's not like eight months is long enough to change anything or for anyone to see any changes in services or increases in prices, assuming the worst case scenario that any of that happens.

I think the demonization, as you put it, will be more a focus on the Obama administration's fiscal irresponsibility and huge-mongous budgets. I agree with you in that minimal changes to healthcare, if any, will be seen in the 8 months leading up to the election but that will not prevent the GOP from railing the Dems on the cost of the bill.

 

[Bulletproof Tiger]

It doesn't matter if the Senate has the votes. The Senate already passed the bill. It is now the house's turn to pass the bill. They DON'T have the votes, obviously, or they already would have passed the Senate bill. THEN it is a matter of passing the reconciliation bill in both chambers.

 

[jpcdolphan]

I think the demonization, as you put it, will be more a focus on the Obama administration's fiscal irresponsibility and huge-mongous budgets. I agree with you in that minimal changes to healthcare, if any, will be seen in the 8 months leading up to the election but that will not prevent the GOP from railing the Dems on the cost of the bill.

They will and since any benefits probably won't have started in force by then, they'll get mileage of it for sure.

But the only way it becomes the wedge issue over, say, the economy in general or the employment rate is if care and services start to degrade.

And just like any benefits won't materialize in time to substantially help the Dems, any deficits won't do it in time to substantially hurt them.

Assuming an improving but not exploding economy, health care will be the 2012 wedge issue, not the 2010 one.

 

[saintsfan342000]

I don't get how any of you can be ok with this.

Congress takes this back door route,
And now there's a gun to your head: "Buy insurance, or else."

Reform != Solution

 

[Bulletproof Tiger]

It doesn't matter if the Senate has the votes. The Senate already passed the bill. It is now the house's turn to pass the bill. They DON'T have the votes, obviously, or they already would have passed the Senate bill. THEN it is a matter of passing the reconciliation bill in both chambers.

Also... the most major issue holding up the bill is the abortion language. The pro-life/anti-choice democrats won't vote for the Senate bill unless the abortion language changes. The abortion language CAN'T be changed through reconciliation, generally, because reconciliation can only be used settle budget issues. I don't see it happening unless, at the very least, the house democrats can trust the senate democrats and they find a creative way to fit changes to abortion under a budget resolution. I don't see how they can trust that the Senate will approve a reconciliation bill that changes abortion even if it is possible. The Senate CHANGED the language that was already approved in the house bill. "You changed our language last time, but do you promise you won't change it this time after we approve your changes?"

 

[Ice Bowl]

I think it's naive to think that an issue this big will go away in just a few months. To me at least, this is equivalent to a policy such as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and will dominate headlines into September and October and beyond.

How? What will the headlines say? "Republicans Still Mad About Getting Their ***** Handed To Them 6 Months Ago!"? Extra, extra, read all about it.

This'll be old news by then on the campaign trail, and if the Republicans are stupid enough to want to make their campaigns about a fight they already lost, I'm sure the Democrats will be delighted to let them. The only way this would be newsworthy this fall is if there were some actual, measurable effects of the legislation at that point, and it's very unlikely there will. Some taxes will have kicked in, but if the economy is doing well by then, the taxes won't seem very important. None of the new regulations will have gone into effect, so nobody will be able to debate about them. What will make this bill still newsworthy 7 months from now?

People vote in accordance with whatever they happen to be most scared of or ****** off about in the ten days prior to the election. In today's world, there will be no shortage of things between now and November that will have people plenty scared and plenty ******. Health care will be a minor factor, nothing more than a talking point to whip up the rabid conservative base that's already going to vote republican anyway. Most moderates and independents are going to be a lot more worried about Iran or Afghanistan or the economy by then, or any one of a hundred other things that could pop up this summer. Democrats, on the other had, are likely to be invigorated by it, because their legislators will be able to point to it as something they accomplished.

This isn't exactly a slam dunk for the dems in November, but overall it will be more of a positive than a negative.

 

[Bulletproof Tiger]

How? What will the headlines say? "Republicans Still Mad About Getting Their ***** Handed To Them 6 Months Ago!"? Extra, extra, read all about it.

This'll be old news by then on the campaign trail, and if the Republicans are stupid enough to want to make their campaigns about a fight they already lost, I'm sure the Democrats will be delighted to let them. The only way this would be newsworthy this fall is if there were some actual, measurable effects of the legislation at that point, and it's very unlikely there will. Some taxes will have kicked in, but if the economy is doing well by then, the taxes won't seem very important. None of the new regulations will have gone into effect, so nobody will be able to debate about them. What will make this bill still newsworthy 7 months from now?

People vote in accordance with whatever they happen to be most scared of or ****** off about in the ten days prior to the election. In today's world, there will be no shortage of things between now and November that will have people plenty scared and plenty ******. Health care will be a minor factor, nothing more than a talking point to whip up the rabid conservative base that's already going to vote republican anyway. Most moderates and independents are going to be a lot more worried about Iran or Afghanistan or the economy by then, or any one of a hundred other things that could pop up this summer. Democrats, on the other had, are likely to be invigorated by it, because their legislators will be able to point to it as something they accomplished.

This isn't exactly a slam dunk for the dems in November, but overall it will be more of a positive than a negative.

Do you think the 57% of Americans in nearly every poll taken who do NOT want this bill won't remember this in November? Especially if it is passed via reconciliation?