Mike Smith blunder to elect to punt (2 Viewers)

[nrogers80]

Yeah I agree it was the right call. You don't give the reigning champs that opportunity in that kind of field position. That is just too much of a chance. Put the ball down field and hope the D shuts them down. Especially when their defense was coming up big all night.

 

[duckjr78]

First of all, this is only a good argument if "extending the game" is what you want. Extending the game isn't always the best option. Sometimes gambling gives you a higher percentage of winning than playing it safe.

Secondly, this isn't even true. The game isn't over if the Falcons fail. The stakes are essentially the same: stop the Saints from getting a first down (or two) or lose.

Let's look at the three possible outcomes:

1) Convert the first down. Ball at around midfield, you have 3 timeouts (with the 2 min warning), and a "clutch qb" at home. You're in the driver's seat. You have to get 15 yards for a pretty good look at a tie, and you have a decent shot at just winning outright.

2) Fail the conversion. Ball at around the ATL 43 for the Saints.
a) If you stop them, they have to convert a long field goal and risk giving you good field position, or punt and try to pin you deep. You'll get the ball anywhere from the 1-20 probably.
b) If you don't stop them, you're screwed.

3) Punt. Assuming a good punt, you'll probably put them around the 15.
a) If you stop them, they have to punt. You'll probably end up with the ball around the 30-50.
b) if you don't stop them, you're screwed.


b) is the crucial part. It almost doesn't matter if you punt - you have to stop them either way, and even if you get the ball back you're looking at (I think) 1:20 of time with no timeouts. the difference is just field position.

Exactly how I saw it.

 

[RockyMtnSaint]

I don't think it was the right call. The Saints O was gaining momentum and had moved the ball well on the previous two drives (the tipped INT and the TD drive). I think the Falcons D was getting tired from all the blitzing. I didn't think they could stop the Saints in their 4 minute offense. It was a mistake by Smith not to pick up on this and try to keep the ball in the hands of his offense. He thought his D was in good shape when they weren't and he counted on them to get a stop when they weren't able to. The 4th and 6 was certainly not a given but I think it was their only chance.

 

[Broad St. Saint]

Steve Young had a good point. Teams have personalities.

He tried to explain why Atlanta stopped blitzing and went "prevent" towards the end of the 4th Quarter (I'm not sure they did go prevent, but they definitely did less blitzing).

Atlanta plays not to lose. So to with the 4th and 6.

That has worked out well for them this year.

But it's Martyball and Moraball and now Mattyball.

Historically, it crashes and burns in the playoffs.

 

[SuperQuincy]

I think I would have gone for it. Down by 3, at that point. Needing a first down, and reguardless where you punt it to, the other team needs 10 yards to ice this thing. Who cares if you give it at the 20 or your own 38. 10 yards ends this thing no matter where you give Drew Brees the ball.

I would have let my O go for it on 4th. Saints get ball at 38 or so depending on the play results if you don't get the first. Still have 2 timeouts, still have the 2 minute warning.

But with the Saints only needing 10 yards, its basicly giving the Saints the ball at the 10 yard line no matter where you give them the ball on the field, cause a first down was as good as a TD in this case. If they had it at the 38 go 3 - out, and say kick a field goal, well its down by 6 and still a chance to win with one possession.

Punting gives Drew Brees the chance to seal it, I would have rather given Matt Ryan the chance to win it if I were coaching the Falcons.

 

[Sophandros]

It was the right call, 2 minute warning and 2 timeouts.

Absolutely the wrong call. I said so from the stands last night. Then I woke up this morning and read this: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/12/should-falcons-have-punted.html which confirmed my gut reaction last night.

Plus, it was totally out of character for Smith. He should have remembered that one of the main the reasons they beat us early in the season was because they went for it and converted on 4th down.

As a Saints fan, I'm happy with his poor decision.

 

[Sophandros]

It was obviously the wrong call based on results. I thought it was a bad decision at the time. It made me happy. Matt Millen thinks it was a good call. He's the expert.

It was obviously the wrong call based on percentages, regardless of the outcome.

 

[srenner]

Atlanta played the first game desperate like they had to score every time they touched the ball and went for it on 4th down over and over and over. They played a near perfect game in that one and won by 3.

They didn't do that as much offensively this game, partially because we took away their run and forced them into 4th and longer situations. End result.

7 offensive points for them.

 

[basilisk]

to me, deciding on whether or not this was a good call means looking at it for payton's view... do you think he would rather they go for it or punt?

 

[RockyMtnSaint]

to me, deciding on whether or not this was a good call means looking at it for payton's view... do you think he would rather they go for it or punt?

Very good point. I know I relaxed a little when I saw them bring the punt team on. I felt good about our 4 minute offense because I knew Payton wouldn't just run the ball 3 times and then punt.

 

[esbern]

a good call is one that works, a bad call is one that doesn't. this one didn't, and was thus a bad call.

 

[RockyMtnSaint]

a good call is one that works, a bad call is one that doesn't. this one didn't, and was thus a bad call.

That's not true. There's a difference between a good decision and a good result. You can sometimes get lucky and have a good outcome from a bad decision (Les Miles). You can get unlucky and have a bad outcome from a good decision. In my opinion, this was a bad decision with a bad result.