Mike Smith blunder to elect to punt (1 Viewer)

[atceagle]

One of the keys in winning is, if you are behind, to prolong the point where the game is lost. You never know what is going to happen as long as you are in the game... and if they had gone for it and not made the 4th and 6, the game would have effectively been over.

This. It extends the game.

 

[Saint Kamara]

ahh the hindsight arguement.

nah, I called it way before they elected to punt

In fact, I was calling it on 3rd and 6 saying they have to go for it if it gets to 4th and 6

 

[4EveraSaint]

Lol. Hind sight I'd 20/20 folks.

 

[Broad St. Saint]

It was absolutely the right call because you know the Saints can't run the ball. Seriously, how close were they to a Jimmy Graham fumble?

I don't think it was even a close call on the fumble, even in real time, let alone the replay. Very clearly his rear was on the ground when a Falcon knocked the ball out with a leg.

But . . . you raise a good point. Mike Smith may have realized that with Hoculi, anything can happen. The Saints almost got Hoc'd into overtime.

 

[schemmy]

This. It extends the game.

First of all, this is only a good argument if "extending the game" is what you want. Extending the game isn't always the best option. Sometimes gambling gives you a higher percentage of winning than playing it safe.

Secondly, this isn't even true. The game isn't over if the Falcons fail. The stakes are essentially the same: stop the Saints from getting a first down (or two) or lose.

Let's look at the three possible outcomes:

1) Convert the first down. Ball at around midfield, you have 3 timeouts (with the 2 min warning), and a "clutch qb" at home. You're in the driver's seat. You have to get 15 yards for a pretty good look at a tie, and you have a decent shot at just winning outright.

2) Fail the conversion. Ball at around the ATL 43 for the Saints.
a) If you stop them, they have to convert a long field goal and risk giving you good field position, or punt and try to pin you deep. You'll get the ball anywhere from the 1-20 probably.
b) If you don't stop them, you're screwed.

3) Punt. Assuming a good punt, you'll probably put them around the 15.
a) If you stop them, they have to punt. You'll probably end up with the ball around the 30-50.
b) if you don't stop them, you're screwed.


b) is the crucial part. It almost doesn't matter if you punt - you have to stop them either way, and even if you get the ball back you're looking at (I think) 1:20 of time with no timeouts. the difference is just field position.

 

[schemmy]

I don't think it was even a close call on the fumble, even in real time, let alone the replay. Very clearly his rear was on the ground when a Falcon knocked the ball out with a leg.

But . . . you raise a good point. Mike Smith may have realized that with Hoculi, anything can happen. The Saints almost got Hoc'd into overtime.

Well, there's no reason Jimmy Graham couldn't have fumbled at midfield.

 

[bones]

Told my wife I cant believe he punted the ball. Told her then, BALL GAME!If up by three, of course. Punt make them go the long field. Trailing I do not give it up. Even with over 2 minutes and 2 time outs, I do not give the ball back to a team that is starting to move the ball on my defense the way the SAINTS were. The last several drives the SAINTS only stopped themselves. Even with 2 T.O.'s you have to understand, 2 first downs and you are done. Any other team, maybe, SAINTS, no. Seen that not work before.

 

[WhomDat11]

Balls. Sean Payton has em. Mike Smith don't.

 

[theicebox]

They were screwed either way.

This settles it for me.

Im outta this thread.

 

[Saint Kamara]

First of all, this is only a good argument if "extending the game" is what you want. Extending the game isn't always the best option. Sometimes gambling gives you a higher percentage of winning than playing it safe.

Secondly, this isn't even true. The game isn't over if the Falcons fail. The stakes are essentially the same: stop the Saints from getting a first down (or two) or lose.

Let's look at the three possible outcomes:

1) Convert the first down. Ball at around midfield, you have 3 timeouts (with the 2 min warning), and a "clutch qb" at home. You're in the driver's seat. You have to get 15 yards for a pretty good look at a tie, and you have a decent shot at just winning outright.

2) Fail the conversion. Ball at around the ATL 43 for the Saints.
a) If you stop them, they have to convert a long field goal and risk giving you good field position, or punt and try to pin you deep. You'll get the ball anywhere from the 1-20 probably.
b) If you don't stop them, you're screwed.

3) Punt. Assuming a good punt, you'll probably put them around the 15.
a) If you stop them, they have to punt. You'll probably end up with the ball around the 30-50.
b) if you don't stop them, you're screwed.


b) is the crucial part. It almost doesn't matter if you punt - you have to stop them either way, and even if you get the ball back you're looking at (I think) 1:20 of time with no timeouts. the difference is just field position.

You are 100 % correct.

Ryan has been clutch all year long in the 4th quarter and you take the ball out of his hands?

Mike Smith will have these guys one and done in the playoffs. He ain't ready for the big stage.

 

[Saint Kamara]

Balls. Sean Payton has em. Mike Smith don't.

Again, 100 % correct.

Before the first play of our game ending drive, I kept saying please don't run it up the gut for no yardage like 28 other teams in the NFL would probably do at that point, PASS THE BALL.

And knowing Sean Payton, it was a no brainer, he had Brees pass the ball.

You play to win the game.

 

[Saint Brees]

Can't blame him. The weasel knew they couldn't get a 1st against our defense.

 

[Broad St. Saint]

Well, there's no reason Jimmy Graham couldn't have fumbled at midfield.

True, but if the Saints got Hoc'd deep in their own end, it could set a tying FG or gamewinning TD much more easily.

If the other team is gonna get Hoc'd, you want it to be deep in their own end.

 

[schemmy]

Sure, but in order for that to happen you have to give up a pretty decent shot at converting a fourth and six.

 

[Broad St. Saint]

You gotta compare the odds of converting 4th and 6 versus getting Hoc'd.

Nobody really knows but Ed Hochuli.