OT Coin Toss = 49'ers Demise? (2 Viewers)

[Clintonrebel]

Personally I think high schools have the best OT rules. Both teams line up on the 10 yard line and go at it.

 

[DaveXA]

One team was prepared and the other wasn't. I don't buy Shanahan trying to spin the logic of being the owner of the third possession, it was a dumb move.

Niners players: We didn't know overtime rules

Multiple 49ers players said they were not aware of the NFL's postseason overtime rules.

www.espn.com

It's really not dumb. It's not that simple a decision. Getting the ball again after the first 2 possessions is a valid strategy because at that point it's first team to score. Had the TD play to win failed, then KC has a decision to make, to they kick the FG or go for it on 4th down. If they kick the FG, then SF gets the ball and only needs a FG to win. If KC goes for the TD on 4th and fail, then SF wins.

Not really a bad spot to be in at that point.

 

[44slayer]

Nah, it’s dumb. You’ll never convince me the 3rd possession is the one you play for. You control the game by deferring. You know exactly what you have to do with the 2nd possession.

And if you have the nuts to do it, no team that gets it first is going to go for 2 after an TD. Ever. You can be down 7, and go for the win by going for 2. It requires a boatload of testes, but you have that in your pocket.

Shanahan didn’t even get to the 3rd possession. That’s why you don’t play for the 3rd possession. You play for a possession that you never see? Dumbest move in SB history. The excuse of the “3rd possession”. Dumb.

 

[TenTwo]

Are you serious? It was a dumb move.

To not defer is not the smart move. Think of a Vegas black jack dealer playing his cards first. Why would you put yourself in that position?

Yes I’m serious and no it was not a dumb move.

How is this scenario anything like blackjack? The dealer shows one card first and then the player plays their hand. Is this dynamic somehow represented on the football field? Even if it somehow is, Blackjack is literally the closest game to even odds you find in a casino, and the casino is favored because the player loses when both the player and casino busts. Is there some correlation to OT rules here?

I see no logical correlation at all with your assertion that taking the ball first is dumb. There are CLEARLY advantages to either decision, as mentioned in my post which you quoted.

 

[44slayer]

It’s dumb as hell. Not just some dumb. It’s indefensible to play for the possession you may not even see. Which he didn’t. And why the Chiefs are carrying a trophy home.

 

[Pkessling]

Is this wrong! You take the ball first and if you score a TD you win right ?

Not in playoffs

 

[DaveXA]

Nah, it’s dumb. You’ll never convince me the 3rd possession is the one you play for. You control the game by deferring. You know exactly what you have to do with the 2nd possession.

And if you have the nuts to do it, no team that gets it first is going to go for 2 after an TD. Ever. You can be down 7, and go for the win by going for 2. It requires a boatload of testes, but you have that in your pocket.

Shanahan didn’t even get to the 3rd possession. That’s why you don’t play for the 3rd possession. You play for a possession that you never see? Dumbest move in SB history. The excuse of the “3rd possession”. Dumb.

It's likely that KC was one play away from kicking a FG if they don't get the game winning FG, and SF gets the ball with an opportunity to win. They were literally one play away from that happening, so, it wasn't far fetched at all.

But, if you refuse to be convinced of something obvious, that's a choice I guess.

 

[EvilMike]

The coin toss wasn't why they lost. It was because they went conservative in OT once they got inside the 10 yard line. After all the talk about Shanahan going to "grab the game" he called an absolutely turd of a run against a stacked defensive line that lost a yard, followed by a "block no one" pass play. Go out and grab the freakin' TD and go home with the trophy.

 

[44slayer]

It's likely that KC was one play away from kicking a FG if they don't get the game winning FG, and SF gets the ball with an opportunity to win. They were literally one play away from that happening, so, it wasn't far fetched at all.

But, if you refuse to be convinced of something obvious, that's a choice I guess.

Who won?

It is some level of condescending I cant even explain to call something "obvious" that literally didnt happen. This played out in front of your eyes, and you are calling it "obvious". You dont play for a possession you might not even see. In the Super Bowl? Come on.

You can play this game all day. If they get the 3rd possession and punt, and if they get KC to punt, then they can win it on the 5th possession or the 7th possession. Maybe they play until March and win it on the 308th possession. All I know is, they did it your way - and KC added a Lombardi to their trophy case. I dont know what more proof you need.

It was an ultra dumb decision. Youll never see it again in the playoffs. No coach is ever going to make that mistake again.

 

[44slayer]

The coin toss wasn't why they lost. It was because they went conservative in OT once they got inside the 10 yard line. After all the talk about Shanahan going to "grab the game" he called an absolutely turd of a run against a stacked defensive line that lost a yard, followed by a "block no one" pass play. Go out and grab the freakin' TD and go home with the trophy.

Right, but if you have the 2nd possession, there is no guesswork on being conservative or going for it. You know exactly what you need. The game is in front of you.

 

[DaveXA]

Who won?

It is some level of condescending I cant even explain to call something "obvious" that literally didnt happen. This played out in front of your eyes, and you are calling it "obvious". You dont play for a possession you might not even see. In the Super Bowl? Come on.

You can play this game all day. If they get the 3rd possession and punt, and if they get KC to punt, then they can win it on the 5th possession or the 7th possession. Maybe they play until March and win it on the 308th possession. All I know is, they did it your way - and KC added a Lombardi to their trophy case. I dont know what more proof you need.

It was an ultra dumb decision. Youll never see it again in the playoffs. No coach is ever going to make that mistake again.

I stand by what I said. KC most likely kicks a FG the next play, and suddenly SF has the advantage and the ball in a sudden death situation. Coaches always, always wanted the ball first under the OG OT rules, which was simply whoever scores first wins.

It's simply not as obvious as you're attempting to make it out to be. I'd bet my house there are coaches who would make that same decision in same scenario in the future.

Either way, to each his own. You have your opinion, I have mine. Good day to you.

 

[DaveXA]

Right, but if you have the 2nd possession, there is no guesswork on being conservative or going for it. You know exactly what you need. The game is in front of you.

Yes, that's certainly part of the calculus in the decision, and if I were the head coach, I'd probably want to have the ball last. And to be clear, I'm not arguing that playing for the second possession is the wrong call. I'm just saying it's not that obvious when you consider all of the possible outcomes and I think either way is a valid decision.

Some coaches might want their defense on the field in that crunch situation. And I believe part of it was that SF defense had been on the field for a long drive to end the 4th quarter and needed a rest and that went into the decision as well.

 

[44slayer]

I stand by what I said. KC most likely kicks a FG the next play, and suddenly SF has the advantage and the ball in a sudden death situation. Coaches always, always wanted the ball first under the OG OT rules, which was simply whoever scores first wins.

It's simply not as obvious as you're attempting to make it out to be. I'd bet my house there are coaches who would make that same decision in same scenario in the future.

Either way, to each his own. You have your opinion, I have mine. Good day to you.

Youd lose your house. Come back to this thread when you ever see another coach do this again. It was a mega failure to prepare on Shanahans part. Andy Reid mustve been shaking his his orthopedic shoes when he lost the toss, but got what he wanted anyway.

They did it your way, and lost. The 3rd possession is essentially the grassy knoll. An idea that doesnt exist. You dont play for the IF in the biggest game of your life. You take the bull by the horns. Simple as that.

You have a good day too.

 

[Artifactual]

Right, but if you have the 2nd possession, there is no guesswork on being conservative or going for it. You know exactly what you need. The game is in front of you.

This!

In the back and forth I easily side with 44slayer. It's not even close. It's like 9 reasons why to defer and take the 2nd possession as opposed to 1 reason to take the ball first with this new rule. I made a strong case in my first post on page 2 and also cited articles to back it up. I posted the rules on page 3 if anyone needs to get up to speed. I'll repost part of my page 2 post. below.


There were no analytics to refer to. This new rule had not come into play before the Superbowl. The new rule allowed for both teams to get a least one possession unless there was a defensive TD on the first possession; Ie: a pick 6 or a scoop and score.

By choosing to receive rather than kick, Shanahan allowed the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes to get the ball with more information to factor into their play-calling. It also meant less data for him.

That meant Kansas City knew it needed to score and would never consider punting as an option.

As such, when the Chiefs faced fourth-and-1 from their own 34-yard line, they went for it. Had that same scenario played out on the first drive of overtime, Kansas City would have almost assuredly punted and allowed San Francisco to win it with a field goal.

Allowing the Chiefs to go for it on fourth down was akin to a turnover. The decision also allowed Kansas City to make second- and third-down calls throughout the drive knowing it would have an extra play. It incalculably changed the decision-making.

If San Francisco had scored a touchdown and Kansas City responded, head coach Andy Reid would have had the option of winning the game with a 2-point conversion.

Shanahan essentially gave all the power and all the advantage of winning the coin flip to Kansas City for the first two possessions of the game and needed a specific result to get to the point of the game to regain it. (A 3rd possession.)

There is no good reason to argue taking the ball first was the correct thing to do when all the above says otherwise. Also consider that taking the ball first has you starting at your own 25 with the pressure to score in some way or another without having to punt and give the opponent the upper hand to only need a FG to win. Without a Defensive Holding call that bailed out the 49ers that is exactly what would have happened. Shanahan should have deferred which is what the analytics say to do in the college game in overtime when both teams have at least one possession in OT which is what they do 95% of the time.

The second mistake Shanahan made was not going for the TD on 4th down from the 5 yard line. A TD there would have forced KC to score a TD. A turnover on downs would have made KC drive at least 55 yards to attempt a FG. Either way, all odds shifted in the Chiefs favor when the 49ers elected to take the first possession in OT.

With this new rule for playoff games now having played out the analytics will now clearly say to defer to 2nd possession when winning the coin toss. Having proved itself in the brightest lights of the Super Bowl it will be in bold print the next time it comes into play. You can count on that!

Mike Florios Take:

When winning the overtime coin toss in playoffs, the choices are receive, kick, or defer

The 49ers took the ball to start overtime.

www.nbcsports.com

The better move would be to defer the option, securing the ability to kick the ball before overtime transforms to sudden death and likewise getting the ball if/when there’s a third overtime period.

Reddit Forum Take Is Overwhelmingly In Favor Of Kicking Off And Taking The 2nd Possession


The Chiefs were thoroughly prepared and had a plan in place had they won the coin toss. They would have deferred and taken the 2nd possession. Also, had the 49ers scored a TD on the first possession the Chiefs planned on going for 2 after scoring their TD for a walk off win.

I'm still of the opinion that Shanahan and the 49ers were not fully prepared and did not understand the ramifications of 1st or 2nd possession.

 

[DaveXA]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/02/12/super-bowl-overtime-kyle-shanahan/