Physical traits, speed, agility, explosiveness attributes of Top WRs (What's the formula?) (1 Viewer)

harschman

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Wide Receivers are constantly a hot topic on here. While doing some research I stumbled on an article from 2012 detailing using some physical attributes to determine NFL success as it pertains to predict top 25 WR in points per reception fantasy leagues. He was attempting to find something that worked for both fantasy sports and real life after all, the fantasy sports are based on real life stats and production.


I decided to delve into these questions by looking at what seems to be one of the most difficult positions to predict for fantasy players and NFL teams – the wide receiver. My goal was to figure out what measurements mean the most and see if there were any trends that might help us increase our odds of getting that next big receiver and lessen the chances of drafting yet another wide receiver bust.
The author took the top 25 WRs for a PPR league and determined the following as physical attributes, then averaged them and awarded a point if the player was above the average, deducted a point for incoming rookies below the minimum and added a bonus point for a player drafted in the 1st round. Round drafted was the only non-physical attribute calculated.
  • Height
  • Relative Body Size (pounds per inch)
  • Hand size
  • 40 yard dash time
  • Vertical Leap
  • Broad Jump
  • 20 yard shuttle
  • 3 cone drill
  • Round Draft (non-physical stat)
According to his research the incoming 2012 class top rated WRs using this formula was Alshon Jeffrey and AJ Jenkins, both with a score of 7. Previous years had Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson with 10s, AJ Green and Larry Fitzgerald with 8s, Marques Colston was a 3. TY Hilton from the 2012 class was a -3 as he had quite a few deficiencies. The thought is you can overcome a deficiency if you are strong in another area whereas multiple deficiencies are more difficult to overcome.

I took this calculation add applied it to the top 25 reception leaders from the 2019 season while factoring in Tyreek Hill, so 26 players were averaged.

2019 Averages:
Height: 72.5 inches
Relative Body Size: 2.82 pounds
Hand Size: 9.53 inches
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.49 seconds
Vertical Leap: 36.27 inches
Broad Jump: 122.35 inches
20 Yard Shuttle: 4.18 seconds
3 Cone Drill: 6.87 seconds
Round Drafted: 2.5


2019 Minimums:
Height: 68 inches
Relative Body Size: 2.56
Hand Size: 8.5
40 Yard Dash Time: 4.65 seconds
Vertical Leap: 28.5 inches
Broad Jump: 110 inches
20 Yard Shuttle: 4.5 seconds
3 Cone Drill: 7.17 seconds
Round Drafted: UDFA

Below is how each WR scored. 8/25 1st round selections, 9/25 2nd round selections, 5/25 3rd round and only 3/25 were 4th round or later selections with 1 being a UDFA.

2019 Receptions Leaders:
Michael Thomas: 7 (largest hands at 10.5 inches)
Keenan Allen: 2 (missing vertical, broad jump, 20 yard shuttle and 3 cone)
DeAndre Hopkins: 6 (missing 3 cone, was the minimum or slowest on 20 yard shuttle at 4.5 seconds)
Julian Edelman: 5 (fastest 20 yard shuttle time)
Julio Jones: 9 (slower than the average on the 20 yard shuttle)
Allen Robinson: 6
Cooper Kupp: 3
Tyler Boyd: 3
Robert Woods: 1
DJ Moore: 8
Chris Godwin: 6
Davante Adams: 6
Jarvis Landry: 3 (mins on 40, vert, broad and missing data for 20 yard shuttle and 3 cone drill)
Tyler Lockett: 3
Amari Cooper: 8
Jamison Crowder: 1 (mins on height and 3 cone drill)
Larry Fitzgerald: 6 (10.5 inch hands, missing vert, broad, 20 yard shuttle and 3 cone)
Odell Beckham: 8
DJ Chark: 5 (3rd fastest 40 and 2nd highest vertical, missing data on 20 yard shuttle and 3 cone drill)
John Brown: 3 (minimum on relative body size)
DeVante Parker: 5 (missing data on 20 yard shuttle and 3 cone drill)
Courtland Sutton: 7
Christian Kirk: 4
Cole Beasley: 3 (missing hand size, minimums on height and relative body size)
Mike Evans: 6
Tyreke Hill: 4 (min on height, fastest 40, highest vertical, quickest 3 cone and below min hand size)

3 Rookies from 2019 class:
Deebo Samuel: 6 (10 inch hands)
AJ Brown: 5
DK Metcalf: 7 (fast 40 and min on 20 yard shuttle)

Current Saints:
Michael Thomas: 7
(largest hands at 10.5 inches)
TreQuan Smith: 6 (.03 off hand size from being average)
Keith Kirkwood: 2 (.01 off from 40 average, .03 off from hand size average, .02 off from relative body size average, 81 inch wing span)
Krishawn Hogan: 6 (.03 off from 20 yard shuttle average)
Lil’Jordan Humphrey: 1 (below minimum for 40 time)
Emmanuel Butler: 1 (10 inch hands, below min for 40 time, 20 yard shuttle and 3 cone) 20 yard shuttle is only .02 below the minimum.
Deonte Harris: 3 (below minimum for height)
Maurice Harris: 1 (below minimum for broad jump)
Tommylee Lewis: -2 (below minimum for hand size and height)
Alvin Kamara: 3 (calculated him just for reference to WRs)

I had planned to hold off and post after the combine and pro days, but there are some WRs who are already jumping out with limited data. The 40 times I have found are all estimated or from their recruiting numbers. A few WRs have had their hand size measured during recruiting. The numbers below are just based on height, weight, project 40 and if their hand size is available. No bonus points have been awarded for projected round drafted. These guys have a pretty good head start before being measured/timed.

Laviska Shenault Jr.: 3
Gabriel Davis: 3
Brandon Aiyuk: 3 (10 inch hands)
Chase Claypool: 4 (10 inch hands)
Antonio Gandy-Golden: 3
Donovan Peoples-Jones: 3
Tyrie Cleveland: 3
James Proche: 3
Austin Mack: 3 (10 inch hands)

Using this data and applying it to our current wide receivers and the roles they look to fill based on previous opportunities I project the following WRs making the 2020 roster leaving potentially 2 open positions to be filled through FA, trade, draft or UDFA.

Michael Thomas (Obvious lock, best in the game)
TreQuan Smith (Lock)
Keith Kirkwood
Krishawn Hogan
Deonte Harris

I took his thoughts from 2012 and applied them to current WRs to see how it would hold up. Overall, the top WRs based on receptions are above average in many of the attributes, have few if any deficiencies and are drafted in the top 3 rounds. However, as in the article this was just used to compare and project top WRs, the NFL is loaded with guys who are not at the top and perform for their respective team. This does not account for being able to catch, play football, run routes, learn a playbook, stay out of trouble, health, etc.
 
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ELLIASJWILLIAMS

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As Brees started to age they put a premium on CIT or catching in traffic.
Saints will sign a FA WR you can bet on it because they won't want to go into the draft with an obvious need at WR - They hate to be pigeon holed.

Leaving 1 spot to be filled by a drafted receiver(according to your data) and in a deep draft they likely won't go that direction in the 1st round - unless a WR is BPA. They'll be more likely to hit a thinner position early like LB or DB or even OT if all else fails.
 
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harschman

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As Brees started to age they put a premium on CIT or catching in traffic.
Saints will sign a FA WR you can bet on it because they won't want to go into the draft with an obvious need at WR - They hate to be pigeon holed.

Leaving 1 spot to be filled by a drafted receiver(according to your data) and in a deep draft they likely won't go that direction in the 1st round - unless a WR is BPA. They'll be more likely to hit a thinner position early like LB or DB or even OT if all else fails.
I agree and it's evident by the shift in WR size that SP is after. In my opinion one guy who keeps jumping out is Austin Mack out of Ohio State. There is not really a lot of highlights on him compared to other WRs, but he looks to have all of the intangibles and the skills that SP looks for to including willing blocker, great route runner and can play every WR position. On tape, there are plays were his play and mannerisms are mimicking MT's. His catch rate his senior season was 100%. Now that I am plugging in this data, he will have at least 3 better than average physical attributes with one being 10" hands and the other being almost the ideal relative body size at 2.90.
 

bobad

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I agree and it's evident by the shift in WR size that SP is after. In my opinion one guy who keeps jumping out is Austin Mack out of Ohio State. There is not really a lot of highlights on him compared to other WRs, but he looks to have all of the intangibles and the skills that SP looks for to including willing blocker, great route runner and can play every WR position. On tape, there are plays were his play and mannerisms are mimicking MT's. His catch rate his senior season was 100%. Now that I am plugging in this data, he will have at least 3 better than average physical attributes with one being 10" hands and the other being almost the ideal relative body size at 2.90.
Mack is way under the radar, could go in round 5 or 6. I know Payton watches tOSU, and betting he is very aware of Mack. He's a SR, so I don't quite know what to think of his talent.
 
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harschman

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How does Jerry Rice stack up. We all know about him.
Some of the data is not available on Rice as it wasn't measured back then. It also seems there is a range of what Rice's 40 time actually was. We always hear about the 4.6 40 and it looks like the slowest recorded time was 4.71 while another watch had him at 4.45 so he was somewhere in the middle. Using the 4.71, he would only score a 4, but his hand size was just slightly under the average and considering the brick stories, his 9.5 hands were probably a lot more capable than many 9.5 hands. This is also being compared to the top 25 receivers from 2019 and also missing data, so he very well could be in the 5-6 or higher range with all of the data and if his real 40 was sub 4.5.

When I have time, I might compare him to WRs in his generation as he probably will grade out to the top, but compared to guys now he still grades out extremely high.

NameRoundReceptionsYardsHeightWeightRelative Body SizeHand Size40 Yard Dash TimeVertical LeapBroad Jump20 Yard Shuttle3 Cone DrillScore
Jerry Rice
1​
74​
200​
2.70​
9.5​
4.71​
35​
123​
4​
 

saint_drago

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WR is one of the hardest positions to predict. A player can absolutely dominate the collegiate ranks but then they get to the pros and it doesn't work out.

When I started really studying for the draft I learned quickly that WRs are risky. The 2001 draft being the perfect example. That season David Terrell and Koren Robinson were taken 7th and 8th overall. Both guys were seen as safe picks but they never lived up to the hype.

If I was scouting a WR I'd focus on his work ethic. Obviously the height/weight/speed stuff is important but most of the elite WRs work really hard. They want to be great. So I'd look at that, does the guy want to be great. It's not something you can measure though.
 
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harschman

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WR is one of the hardest positions to predict. A player can absolutely dominate the collegiate ranks but then they get to the pros and it doesn't work out.

When I started really studying for the draft I learned quickly that WRs are risky. The 2001 draft being the perfect example. That season David Terrell and Koren Robinson were taken 7th and 8th overall. Both guys were seen as safe picks but they never lived up to the hype.

If I was scouting a WR I'd focus on his work ethic. Obviously the height/weight/speed stuff is important but most of the elite WRs work really hard. They want to be great. So I'd look at that, does the guy want to be great. It's not something you can measure though.
Exactly. This is just comparing what their physical attributes are.

A good example was when the author compiled this data in 2012 for the 2012 draft class, Alshon Jeffrey and AJ Jenkins graded out the highest. Alshon has had a really good career and AJ Jenkins couldn't play football.
 

saint_drago

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Exactly. This is just comparing what their physical attributes are.

A good example was when the author compiled this data in 2012 for the 2012 draft class, Alshon Jeffrey and AJ Jenkins graded out the highest. Alshon has had a really good career and AJ Jenkins couldn't play football.
Players like A.J. Jenkins would keep me up at night if I were in charge of a draft. Some players have all of the things you can measure but for whatever reason it never works out. Some players like Josh Reed and Troy Edwards were unstoppable in college but just average in the pros.

Playing WR in the NFL is difficult. The playbook is more complicated, the speed of the game is much faster, and some of the best athletes in the world are hounding you every single down. Corners have always been fast but now a lot of them are fast and big. It makes what MT is doing all the more impressive.

But as far as physical attributes go some of it has to do with the particular offense a team is running. Some players like a MT or Antonio Brown are transcendent talents that would excel in any scheme but some players like a Wes Welker are tailor made for a certain offense. SP seems to be looking for big bodied WRs who can make plays in traffic. If they can get some YAC then great but hands first.
 
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harschman

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Players like A.J. Jenkins would keep me up at night if I were in charge of a draft. Some players have all of the things you can measure but for whatever reason it never works out. Some players like Josh Reed and Troy Edwards were unstoppable in college but just average in the pros.

Playing WR in the NFL is difficult. The playbook is more complicated, the speed of the game is much faster, and some of the best athletes in the world are hounding you every single down. Corners have always been fast but now a lot of them are fast and big. It makes what MT is doing all the more impressive.

But as far as physical attributes go some of it has to do with the particular offense a team is running. Some players like a MT or Antonio Brown are transcendent talents that would excel in any scheme but some players like a Wes Welker are tailor made for a certain offense. SP seems to be looking for big bodied WRs who can make plays in traffic. If they can get some YAC then great but hands first.
I agree. I usually read up on a player going back to their recruiting and especially any interviews where they talk about their work ethic, how they feel about blocking, route running, etc. I look for what coaches say about them as well, and especially in those areas. Then I watch some videos to see if what they say is on film. Sometime during the process, I will look at their measurables to see how everything adds up.

This is why I am high on Hogan. Physically he compares very favorable to some of the top WRs, then looking at this body of work in college, he performed. Now, he's on his 3rd team, but every article or interview I have seen with him has been really good insight into his work ethic. Now, given the opportunity, he got into games and was making key blocks on some of the best runs during the games he played in. I think this shows he is willing to put in the work and do anything to get into a game. This mindset and work ethic will go a long way in an SP offense.
 

Randy Jones

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Thanks for the comparison. Jerry Rice seemed to be most dangerous running crossing routes. Plus, his stats on run after the catch must be pretty high because I seem to remember him breaking free for considerable yards every time he ran a route over the middle.
 
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harschman

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I found these Relative Athletic Score cards when searching for some data on a WR. It's similar data points that are used in the article that I read and posted in the initial post.

Michael Thomas
Tre'Quan Smith
Krishawn Hogan
Keith Kirkwood
Deonte Harris
Lil'Jordan Humphrey
Emmanuel Butler
Tommylee Lewis
Maurice Harris
Not Available
 

noser222

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WR1: 6'4" 230 4.4 speed
WR2: 6'1" 200 4.2 speed



with pads on in football situations

and 10" hands
 
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harschman

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2010 - 2019 Top 10 WRs in receptions average physical attributes.

NameRoundRecYardsHeightWeightRBSHand Size40 TimeVerticalBroad Jump20 Yd Shuttle3 Cone DrillScore
2019 Averages
2.40​
101.50​
1226.30​
73.30​
208.80​
2.85​
9.71​
4.53​
35.89​
123.33​
4.20​
6.85​
4.70​
2018 Averages
3.00​
104.90​
1321.30​
72.70​
204.30​
2.81​
9.66​
4.50​
36.28​
120.89​
4.28​
6.80​
4.89​
2017 Averages
2.11​
97.80​
1236.40​
73.28​
209.30​
2.85​
9.99​
4.50​
35.06​
118.71​
4.34​
6.97​
5.00​
2016 Averages
2.78​
97.60​
1220.70​
72.35​
204.40​
2.82​
9.71​
4.49​
35.05​
118.88​
4.23​
6.94​
5.00​
2015 Averages
2.00​
109.00​
1388.10​
73.48​
214.00​
2.91​
9.80​
4.46​
36.39​
120.75​
4.30​
6.99​
5.33​
2014 Averages
2.60​
100.40​
1404.80​
72.13​
203.90​
2.82​
9.59​
4.45​
36.00​
122.44​
4.21​
6.89​
5.00​
2013 Averages
3.00​
100.30​
1319.20​
73.43​
211.30​
2.87​
9.39​
4.48​
36.67​
123.00​
4.19​
6.90​
4.90​
2012 Averages
1.38​
103.70​
1438.80​
74.13​
216.10​
2.91​
9.44​
4.47​
37.25​
127.00​
4.19​
7.06​
4.70​
2011 Averages
2.38​
89.10​
1296.90​
73.40​
212.90​
2.90​
9.54​
4.48​
37.17​
123.50​
4.24​
7.05​
4.40​
2010 Averages
2.78​
91.80​
1085.90​
73.40​
210.30​
2.86​
9.32​
4.49​
36.40​
119.71​
4.21​
6.99​
4.60​
2010-2019 Average
2.46​
99.61​
1293.84​
73.16​
209.53​
2.86​
9.61​
4.49​
36.21​
121.85​
4.24​
6.94​
4.85​
 
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harschman

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2019 Top 10 WRs in receptions average physical attributes.

2019
RankNameRoundRecYardsHeightWeightRBSHand Size40 TimeVerticalBroad Jump20 Yd Shuttle3 Cone DrillScore
1​
Michael Thomas
2​
149​
1725​
75​
212​
2.83​
10.5​
4.57​
35​
126​
4.13​
6.8​
6​
2​
Keenan Allen
3​
104​
1199​
74​
208​
2.81​
10.08​
4.58​
2​
3​
DeAndre Hopkins
1​
104​
1165​
73​
214​
2.93​
10.08​
4.57​
36​
115​
4.5​
5​
4​
Julian Edelman
7​
100​
1117​
70​
198​
2.83​
9​
4.52​
36.5​
123​
3.92​
6.62​
4​
5​
Julio Jones
1​
99​
1394​
75​
220​
2.93​
9.75​
4.34​
38.5​
135​
4.25​
6.66​
9​
6​
Allen Robinson
2​
98​
1147​
74​
220​
2.97​
9.5​
4.6​
39​
127​
4​
7​
6​
7​
Cooper Kupp
3​
94​
1161​
74​
208​
2.81​
9.5​
4.62​
31​
116​
4.08​
6.75​
3​
8​
Tyler Boyd
2​
90​
1046​
74​
197​
2.66​
9.75​
4.58​
34​
119​
4.35​
6.9​
3​
9​
Robert Woods
2​
90​
1134​
72​
201​
2.79​
9.28​
4.51​
33.5​
117​
4.47​
7.15​
2​
10​
DJ Moore
1​
87​
1175​
72​
210​
2.92​
9.63​
4.42​
39.5​
132​
4.07​
6.95​
7​
2019 Averages
2.40​
101.50​
1226.30​
73.30​
208.80​
2.85​
9.71​
4.53​
35.89​
123.33​
4.20​
6.85​
4.70​
2019 Minimums
7​
70​
197​
2.66​
9​
4.62​
31​
115​
4.5​
7.15​
2​
 
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harschman

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2018 Top 10 WRs in receptions average physical attributes.

RankNameRoundRecYardsHeightWeightRBSHand Size40 TimeVerticalBroad Jump20 Yd Shuttle3 Cone DrillScore
1​
Michael Thomas
2​
125​
1405​
75​
212​
2.83​
10.5​
4.57​
35​
126​
4.13​
6.8​
7​
2​
DeAndre Hopkins
1​
115​
1572​
73​
214​
2.93​
10.08​
4.57​
36​
115​
4.5​
5​
3​
Julio Jones
1​
113​
1677​
75​
220​
2.93​
9.75​
4.34​
38.5​
135​
4.25​
6.66​
10​
4​
Adam ThielenUDFA
113​
1373​
74​
200​
2.70​
4.49​
36​
120​
4.49​
6.77​
3​
5​
Davante Adams
2​
111​
1386​
73​
212​
2.90​
9​
4.56​
39.5​
123​
4.3​
6.82​
6​
6​
JuJu Smith-Schuster
2​
111​
1426​
73​
215​
2.95​
10.5​
4.54​
32.5​
120​
7​
Antonio Brown
6​
104​
1297​
70​
186​
2.66​
9​
4.56​
33.5​
105​
4.18​
6.98​
2​
8​
Stefon Diggs
5​
102​
1021​
72​
191​
2.65​
10​
4.46​
35​
115​
4.32​
7.03​
2​
9​
Keenan Allen
3​
97​
1196​
74​
208​
2.81​
10.08​
4.58​
4​
10​
Tyreke Hill
5​
58​
860​
68​
185​
2.72​
8​
4.29​
40.5​
129​
4.06​
6.53​
5​
2018 Averages
3.00​
104.90​
1321.30​
72.70​
204.30​
2.81​
9.66​
4.50​
36.28​
120.89​
4.28​
6.80​
4.89​
2018 MinimumsUDFA
68​
185​
2.65​
8​
4.58​
32.5​
105​
4.5​
7.03​
2​
 
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harschman

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2017 Top 10 WRs in receptions average physical attributes.

RankNameRoundRecYardsHeightWeightRBSHand Size40 TimeVerticalBroad Jump20 Yd Shuttle3 Cone DrillScore
1​
Jarvis Landry
2​
112​
987​
71.5​
205​
2.87​
10.25​
4.58​
28.5​
110​
4.57​
7.55​
3​
2​
Larry Fitzgerald
1​
109​
1156​
75​
225​
3.00​
10.5​
4.48​
38​
4.28​
6.94​
9​
3​
Michael Thomas
2​
104​
1245​
75​
212​
2.83​
10.5​
4.57​
35​
126​
4.13​
6.8​
6​
4​
Keenan Allen
3​
102​
1393​
74​
208​
2.81​
10.08​
4.58​
2​
5​
Antonio Brown
6​
101​
1533​
70​
186​
2.66​
9​
4.56​
33.5​
105​
4.18​
6.98​
1​
6​
DeAndre Hopkins
1​
96​
1378​
73​
214​
2.93​
10.08​
4.57​
36​
115​
4.5​
5​
7​
Golden Tate
2​
92​
1003​
70​
199​
2.84​
9.25​
4.42​
35​
120​
4.34​
7.12​
4​
8​
Adam ThielenUDFA
91​
1276​
74​
200​
2.70​
4.49​
36​
120​
4.49​
6.77​
5​
9​
Julio Jones
1​
88​
1444​
75​
220​
2.93​
9.75​
4.34​
38.5​
135​
4.25​
6.66​
9​
10​
Demaryius Thomas
1​
83​
949​
75.25​
224​
2.98​
10.5​
4.38​
6​
2017 Averages
2.11​
97.80​
1236.40​
73.28​
209.30​
2.85​
9.99​
4.50​
35.06​
118.71​
4.34​
6.97​
5.00​
2017 MinimumsUDFA
70​
186​
2.66​
9​
4.58​
28.5​
105​
4.57​
7.55​
1​
 
Last edited:

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