Ross Jackson’s biggest takeaways from Loomis, Moore and Ireland at the combine (47 Viewers)

[No2DC]

I would just encourage people to keep expectations low. We have lots of things to fix and it'll take time. Personally....I just hope we get through next season without adding to our cap problems and without adding time to carrs contract. Even that probably isn't low enough.

We have no choice. Most folks were still enthusiastic about the new HC and future then Mick comes with is we luv Carr bull jive.

 

[0rion]

We have no choice. Most folks were still enthusiastic about the new HC and future then Mick comes with is we luv Carr bull jive.

Honestly I don't want out QB this season. I want to be in a spot to get Arch. That's probably an impossibility but that's a dream of mine.

 

[BooBirdSaint]

While 10 wins does not seem to be a huge reach considering the Division. The requirements to get to 10 wins are daunting. The New Coaching staff needs to integrate new schemes and language in both units ASAP. We've seen how this can be problematic with the reduced practice schedule and limited pre-season. Generally, the Defense has to get better vs the run (requiring player upgrades), and the Offense has to be better running the ball (I think we need one or two better Guards and a RB), and we would be expecting a lot of Rookie players to contribute right away (Rookies we haven't even picked yet). WR is a mess (we cannot rely on Olave and a cast of UDFA's), Safety is a mess (Needs to get younger and more athletic), DL and OL need to reduce untimely penalties and both sides need to be more consistent from half to half. Health is still a massive concern due to the huge investment in aging vets. And with our cap we don't have the depth to withstand another injury plagued season if we hope for 10 wins.
Go Saints...

 

[StudioSaint]

This is a meme level understanding of statistics.

It's not a meme in any fashion. It's an explanation of the basic principles of probabilities that illustrates the flaw in your "Carr has only won 10 games twice in his 10 seasons, so he only has a 20 percent chance of winning ten games this season" argument.

If I have a box of colored marbles in a bag, and if 2 out of the 10 marbles I grab out of the bag are red, I'm gonna assume about 20% of the marbles in the bag are red until I have more data.

And that assumption is a mistake. You're jumping to unsupported conclusions. You're not calculating probabilities.

Not everything has a 50/50 chance of happening lol, that's just straight up not statistics.

I only said that a coin flip has a 50/50 chance. That's an irrefutable fact.

That's not really true, is it though?

It is objectively true that each season's win-loss record is an isolated occurrence. Teams don't carry over their wins or losses into other seasons.

The previous team and their previous performance tends to be a rather large indicator of how a team will preform the next season barring any big changes (which is what you're generally advocating against).

I haven't advocated against big changes. That's a false statement on your part. The Saints made a big change in the coaching staff and that's something that can have a significant impact on a teams win-loss record.

Dynasties and poverty franchises don't happen just because a coin landed on heads 20 times, they happen because of continuity of play and decision making.

The Saints have made significant coaching changes. They have discontinued some signficant things from last year.

But let's rock with that idea. Are we really gonna say having Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen have no positive correlation towards a team winning any given season?

That has nothing to do with anything I've been saying. You're throwing pasta at this point. You said the Saints only have a 20% of getting 10 wins, because teams that Carr has played for have only gotten 10 wins twice in 10 seasons.

That has nothing to do with the fact that QB's, like all players, have an impact on a teams win-loss record. The question is not do QB's have an impact. The question is can you use previous seasons the reasonably calaculate how many games a team can win with a given QB. The answer is no, you can't.

Does having Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, or AOC as the starting QB not matter towards evaluating how many loses?

It has an impact, but you can't reasonably calculate the probaility of the future based on the past because so many variables change from year to year.

There are a lot of factors, true (which is why cutting him to save 80 mil in future cap space is so appealing), but being intentional obtuse on the QB, the single biggest factor towards success, does not count towards winning or losing.

You keep confusing "has an impact" with "being able to reasonably calculate a statistical probability." I'm not being obtuse.

This was immediately obvious to me to be a job security decision. If he bottoms out with Carr at the helm, that's not really on him, that's on the cap issues, previous regime, etc.

That's your opinion and you have no way of knowing if your opinion aligns with reality.

But the optics of rolling with a 5th round QB and then bottoming out puts him at a significantly higher risk of being a one and done.

That's also your opinion and you have no way of knowing if your opinion aligns with reality.

Would I do the same thing if I was him? Probably. Do I think it's the best thing for the team? No.

Moore is not you and you are not Moore, so just beause you think that way, it doesn't mean Moore does. I take Moore at his word. You do not,

This isn't really true either is it? Carr didn't really play better...

It is objectively true that Carr played better last year than in 2023, whether you accept it or not.

...we upgraded from the worst OC in the NFL (in 2023, mad respect for Sneaky Pete) to an above average one, elevating the entire offense initially.

Exactly. Carr played better under Kubiak. That's my whole point. There's no way to know or assign a proability to how many games the Saints will win with Moore as the head coach and Carr as the QB, because it's never happened before. There are also other things that have changed that will impact how many games the Saints will win. There's also more changes coming with free agency and the draft that will impact how many games the Saints win.

Kubiak spamming the run so that Carr could make deep ball shots was him maximizing the strength of the QB he had, not Carr getting better.

That' just such a bizarre, denial fueled take. Carr played better, regardless of why he played better.

Even then, he still gave us the ole 5-5 .500 Carr special at the end of it all.

Your bias is showing. You defend Rattler for the team going 0-7 by saying it's not all on him as a QB, but you put all of the responsibility for the Saints going 5-5 with Carr on Carr even though Carr was dealing with the same team issues that Rattler was.

That's double standards. Double standards are a result of biased driven irrationality.

My thoughts exactly. We should stop doing what we've been doing for the past 5 years,...

The Saints aren't doing everything this year that they did last year. They have a new coaching staff and coaching staffs have more of an impact on a teams win-losses than a QB does. You not acceptiong that does not change that fact.

cut bait to our salary cap issues, and build up the team surrounding our young QB.

And your bias shows again. Get rid of the QB that went 5-5 to build the team around a QB that went 0-7, when they both were dealing with the same team issues.

 

[StudioSaint]

That's trusting this FO to draft well and sign good FAs (with what money?)

I have zero faith in Loomis at this point.

But again the chasm between Brees and Carr cannot be overstated, not just in talent but leadership.

2006 Brees and this junk roster could win a division and maybe, maybe win a playoff game.

2025 Carr on the 2006 Saints and we win 6 games.

That's obviously your opinion on the matter. I have a different opinion. Only time will tell how the season actually plays out.

 

[Rexman100]

We have no choice. Most folks were still enthusiastic about the new HC and future then Mick comes with is we luv Carr bull jive.

my biggest concern isnt Carrs future. But ill say this, if they restructure Carr then they have to take the cap hit next year. If restructuring this year causes them to restructure next year then we're screwed. And its hard to see a scenerio where we restructure Carr to save say 20 mill, on this years cap. Then take the hit of 40MIll next year. It seems like theyd just restructure again, and this is why a large % of Saints fans are mad. They arent mad at Carr starting in 25, they are mad that hes likely starting until 2027. Anyway, my biggest concern is the power structure and if Kellen Moore will be assertive. Sean Payton made the BOSS move by taking the huge hit for Russel Wilson, and we're too timid, KM included, to move on, this is also what drives this Saints/Carr/ML hatred. KM will have to show that he's assertive, and it seems like he's off to a slow start.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

my biggest concern isnt Carrs future. But ill say this, if they restructure Carr then they have to take the cap hit next year. If restructuring this year causes them to restructure next year then we're screwed. And its hard to see a scenerio where we restructure Carr to save say 20 mill, on this years cap. Then take the hit of 40MIll next year. It seems like theyd just restructure again, and this is why a large % of Saints fans are mad. They arent mad at Carr starting in 25, they are mad that hes likely starting until 2027. Anyway, my biggest concern is the power structure and if Kellen Moore will be assertive. Sean Payton made the BOSS move by taking the huge hit for Russel Wilson, and we're too timid, KM included, to move on, this is also what drives this Saints/Carr/ML hatred. KM will have to show that he's assertive, and it seems like he's off to a slow start.

what if your pereception isn't reality. What if you're understanding of the cap gymnastics isn't correct and what if restructuring Carr doesn't actually tie us to him until 2027? And what if it is still possible to get out of the contract in 2026 w/ out it causing as big of an issue than you or fans think?

Then what? Would you stop being concerned...or would you continue to be concerned because it gives you purpose and so your brain would prefer to create a scenario that leads to concern to appease itself?

 

[St. Geezy]

That's trusting this FO to draft well and sign good FAs (with what money?)

We will be under the cap with the restructure of Carr, McCoy, Granderson, and Ruiz.

We can open up an additional close to $40m in space if we want to, perhaps even more if we can get a couple of pay cuts done with Taysom and Cam.

I don’t understand why Saints fans of all people would still ask the “With what money” question.

Whether it’s the right or wrong strategy or not, we know the drill by now.

The team has indicated that they will be aggressive in free agency, and this is how it will get done, for better or for worse.

 

[Rexman100]

what if your pereception isn't reality. What if you're understanding of the cap gymnastics isn't correct and what if restructuring Carr doesn't actually tie us to him until 2027? And what if it is still possible to get out of the contract in 2026 w/ out it causing as big of an issue than you or fans think?

Then what? Would you stop being concerned...or would you continue to be concerned because it gives you purpose and so your brain would prefer to create a scenario that leads to concern to appease itself?

you're tripping because I'm a Carr fan. I was just explaining the haters' attitude) ANYWAY, How can we reduce Carrs cap hit significantly in 25, say by 20 mill. (The 20 mill we'd use to sign free agents as ML suggested that we'd be more active in free agency this year than last) So how could we reduce Carrs cap hit this year without increasing his hit in 2026?. (Because if you don't, then we're staring at a bigger hit in 26, which would make them want to restructure again) I'd be happy if it were possible, then id continue to roast the Carr haters. But they have a point...

 

[lilvipa221]

I’d love to hear How you think we should do things differently…..than someone who’s literally been right in the middle of creating a Super Bowl winner within the last year????

If anyone knows what it looks like and what it takes, it’s Kellen Moore.

What TF does Daboll have to do with what Moore will do in his first 3 seasons???

He said he’s staying with DL, literally that’s what won the Super Bowl.

Kellen Moore had nothing to do with building that roster. The roster was already super bowl built before he got there.

You cant just extrapolate out that Kellen Moore will translate this team into a super bowl winner because he arrived to a philly team for a year that was already built to contend.

 

[St. Widge]

Honestly I don't want out QB this season. I want to be in a spot to get Arch. That's probably an impossibility but that's a dream of mine.

Arch probably won't be in the draft until 2027 or later. Most of the Mannings finish school before entering the draft and they will want to get him as many college snaps as possible. Beyond that, I think he will be very good, but you just never know how good a QB is going to be until they start consistently starting games. Hard to work your QB strategy based on a freshman QB that might not be in the draft for 3 more years.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

you're tripping because I'm a Carr fan. I was just explaining the haters' attitude) ANYWAY, How can we reduce Carrs cap hit significantly in 25, say by 20 mill. (The 20 mill we'd use to sign free agents as ML suggested that we'd be more active in free agency this year than last) So how could we reduce Carrs cap hit this year without increasing his hit in 2026?. (Because if you don't, then we're staring at a bigger hit in 26, which would make them want to restructure again) I'd be happy if it were possible, then id continue to roast the Carr haters. But they have a point...

Why did you perceive me asking questions as tripping? I'm not a cap connisseur so I don't have legit answers to how. I tend to think the people who are in charge of those things are smarter than me in that aspect so any conclusions I draw are likely to be wrong.

Regardless, I was genuinely just asking questions..here's another one. What point do they have?

 

[St. Geezy]

Arch probably won't be in the draft until 2027 or later. Most of the Mannings finish school before entering the draft and they will want to get him as many college snaps as possible. Beyond that, I think he will be very good, but you just never know how good a QB is going to be until they start consistently starting games. Hard to work your QB strategy based on a freshman QB that might not be in the draft for 3 more years.

People say this, but we also have to keep in mind that it was much more normal to stay all four years when Archie played, and also, Peyton and Eli are Archie’s boys, and they both strike me as the “Aw shucks, gotta listen to dad” types…Arch possibly isn’t getting that same pressure from Coop and may not be as inclined to do what Uncle Archie tells him to do.

He may very well stay, but I just wanted to point out that some different dynamics are at play here.

 

[StudioSaint]

People say this, but we also have to keep in mind that it was much more normal to stay all four years when Archie played, and also, Peyton and Eli are Archie’s boys, and they both strike me as the “Aw shucks, gotta listen to dad” types…Arch possibly isn’t getting that same pressure from Coop and may not be as inclined to do what Uncle Archie tells him to do.

He may very well stay, but I just wanted to point out that some different dynamics are at play here.

Don't you mean Pawpaw Archie?

 

[St. Geezy]

Don't you mean Pawpaw Archie?

Ah, you’re right! Wasn’t thinking clearly.