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The $500K for making the Pro Bowl is reachable in the current format. One QB is usually bumped because they're in the Super Bowl and others bow out for various reasons. It seems like the 4th and 5th tier players make the Pro Bowl at various positions.Based on the incentives, Winston will likely cost an average of 14.5/yr with 14M base and .5M incentives.
I could see him taking 70% of snaps and us making the playoffs earning that .5M. He gets another .5M per playoff win up to 2M. So maybe 15.5M/yr if he hits all of those two.
If he earns more than that, then his performance will have far outstripped the contract cost.
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