Update Saints will interview Mike McCarthy in person during this week, Jan. 20-Jan. 25 [Underhill: McCarthy would have to be the current favorite] (56 Viewers)

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Kafka might be the guy, dark horse for sure

 

[Nolan]

I don't understand the Joe Brady appeal at all.

 

[los226]

At least Mike McCarthy is better than Mike Kafka.

 

[texasjefe]

I don't understand the Joe Brady appeal at all.

Sean Payton prototype, with recent past success in the culture. Offensive wild-man.

He comes from the Coached-Drew Brees-and-Joe Burrow tree.

Now he's with Josh Allen. Brady would coach up Rattler or go get his guy.

 

[livefromDC]

You’re missing the point.

Fact - only approximately 6% of coaches all time have won a Super Bowl.

It is hard to do for EVERYONE.

You can’t single out a minuscule subset of coaches and say it is egregiously harder for them to do it.

I'm not, LOL. You're acting like we're using randomized data. We're not. NFL head coaches IS the data set. Within that data set we have known factors that are related to success. For example, the Saints should have known the likelihood of Allen's success before he coached one game. We can ignore this because "we don't know for sure" or we can look at what the data to date states.

 

[St. Widge]

I don't understand the Joe Brady appeal at all.

It's the old Family Guy do you want the boat or the mystery box. The boat is a boat, but the mystery box could be anything. Even a boat.

People are looking to be excited and entertained and Brady is that kind of hire. And it's exciting to think he could end up being great and be here for 15 plus years like Payton. But, the downside is that he could also flame out in a year or two.

 

[livefromDC]

I mean, one is based on the physical pounding a RB takes and the fact that few RBs are still near the same level after age 30 or 31. With coaches you are assuming a cognitive or effort decline at 61. But I don't see any evidence that older coaches don't win. Who has won most of the recent Super Bowls, Bruce Arians (68), Andy Reid (66 now), Belichick (72 now). McVay is really the only recent winner that was relatively young. But, just because there is correlation doesn't mean there is causation (as you know) so I wouldn't refuse to hire a young coach based on that correlation any more than I would refuse to hire a coach that has won a SB with another team based on correlation.

I get age as a concern regarding how long he would stay, but not as a concern that he can't win. As far as how long he stays, he should be able to get this team back to a regular playoff team before he leaves which would put us in a much better position while looking for a new coach, and probably a new GM given Loomis' age, in 3 to 5 years.

You have got to be kidding me. Tom Brady, Mahomes, and Tom Brady.

Okay sure. If the Saints can get Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, or hmm...oh yeah, Tom Brady, I think McCarthy bucks the trend. SMH...

This was lazy by your standards, Widge.

Let's pretend the Saints are doing a total rebuild and those QBs aren't available. Does that change the outlook for you at all?

 

[livefromDC]

It's the old Family Guy do you want the boat or the mystery box. The boat is a boat, but the mystery box could be anything. Even a boat.

People are looking to be excited and entertained and Brady is that kind of hire. And it's exciting to think he could end up being great and be here for 15 plus years like Payton. But, the downside is that he could also flame out in a year or two.

McCarthy can as well. And even if he doesn't, Because he's 62 next season, there's a greater chance he retires in 4 years anyway. Also note, there's NO chance he's in New Orleans for 15 plus years.

 

[St. Widge]

You have got to be kidding me. Tom Brady, Mahomes, and Tom Brady.

Okay sure. If the Saints can get Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, or hmm...oh yeah, Tom Brady, I think McCarthy bucks the trend. SMH...

This was lazy by your standards, Widge.

Let's pretend the Saints are doing a total rebuild and those QBs aren't available. Does that change the outlook for you at all?

It's not lazy. The point is that the fact that older coaches win a lot of Super Bowls is no more a valid reason to hire and older coach and not hire a younger coach than not hiring coaches who have won prior Super Bowls because no coach has won a Super Bowl with two different teams. There are too many variables involved to show causation. At best you have correlation because the are variables like the fact that who your QB likely has the biggest influence on who wins the Super Bowl and often a coach doesn't get that franchise QB in two different jobs.

You just have to pick the guy you think is the best coach and there is no way that having won a Super Bowl with another team should be considered a bad thing.

 

[St. Widge]

McCarthy can as well. And even if he doesn't, Because he's 62 next season, there's a greater chance he retires in 4 years anyway. Also note, there's NO chance he's in New Orleans for 15 plus years.

McCarthy could flame out. But given that he has succeeded in two other jobs and didn't flame out in 2 or 3 years, and recently went 12-5 in 3 of the last 4 years, suggests that it is unlikely that he will flame out. Brady on the other hand is a complete unknown.

You are right McCarthy isn't likely to be here for 15 plus years, but if he's only here for 3 or 4 years building the roster back up for the next coach while getting us back to a consistent playoff team, that would not be a bad result. We would then be in position to get the hot young coach and get a hot young GM.

And, there is very little chance that Brady will be here for the next 15 plus years either. Not many coaches last that long with a team. If it had been up to some fans here, Payton would have been fired after winning a Super Bowl and then going 7-9 for 3 straight years.

The truth is that most HCs that get hired are gone in 3 to 4 years.

 

[livefromDC]

It's not lazy. The point is that the fact that older coaches win a lot of Super Bowls is no more a valid reason to hire and older coach and not hire a younger coach than not hiring coaches who have won prior Super Bowls because no coach has won a Super Bowl with two different teams. There are too many variables involved to show causation. At best you have correlation because the are variables like the fact that who your QB likely has the biggest influence on who wins the Super Bowl and often a coach doesn't get that franchise QB in two different jobs.

You just have to pick the guy you think is the best coach and there is no way that having won a Super Bowl with another team should be considered a bad thing.

There is a correlation. They retire. I'm not making it up. They literally retire instead of continuing to pursue a championship. That's why age is the giant factor. It's already hard to win one. It's much harder to to repeat with the same team (even with a franchise QB), but data indicates it's possible perhaps because of familiarity or time in program. It's proven to be insanely hard to do with another team. Those who have tried end up retiring before getting there. We can't ignore the time limitation that the data suggests that coaches attempting to win with a different team are up against.

 

[St.Dan]

Pieces are starting to fall into place now, with Johnson going to Chicago.

I'd say McCarthy still constitutes the safe choice from the standpoint of having skins on the wall, so to speak. I'll say, however, he'd be stepping into a fairly challenging QB situation here compared to his last coupla gigs. With Brady and Glenn, you'd assume they're hungry to show they can succeed as a head coach....but with no skins on the wall yet as an actual "head man."

 

[livefromDC]

McCarthy could flame out. But given that he has succeeded in two other jobs and didn't flame out in 2 or 3 years, and recently went 12-5 in 3 of the last 4 years, suggests that it is unlikely that he will flame out. Brady on the other hand is a complete unknown.

He's the safe bet for sure. I prefer the higher ceiling and lower floor choices. Because even if they flame out in 4 years, we're still in the same boat since McCarthy is likely to only last 4 years as well.

 

[St. Widge]

There is a correlation. They retire. I'm not making it up. They literally retire instead of continuing to pursue a championship. That's why age is the giant factor. It's already hard to win one. It's much harder to to repeat with the same team (even with a franchise QB), but data indicates it's possible perhaps because of familiarity or time in program. It's proven to be insanely hard to do with another team. Those who have tried end up retiring before getting there. We can't ignore the time limitation that the data suggests that coaches attempting to win with a different team are up against.

Assuming retirement is the thing stopping them for winning another Championship why would you not want an older coach to come in and build your team and then let the next head coach take them over the top?

And yes, there is correlation, but you have not established causation. You are also assuming the motivation for their retirement. But, what if you end up having that great young QB for your 62 year-old coach? Why wouldn't they stay and coach as long as Belichick or Reid?

 

[St. Widge]

He's the safe bet for sure. I prefer the higher ceiling and lower floor choices. Because even if they flame out in 4 years, we're still in the same boat since McCarthy is likely to only last 4 years as well.

I get why some would rather go with the risk young coach. But the difference is that McCarthy, because he has proven recent and long term success as an NFL HC, is more likely to succeed than flame out which means in 4 years you have a better roster to sell to the next HC and likely to the next GM.

And I'm not sure why the younger guys would have a higher ceiling. I mean, the ceiling with McCarthy is established as winning a Super Bowl. If you want a higher ceiling, that's your choice, but I'm not sure you can know if any coach has a ceiling that would include winning more than one Super Bowl.

To me, McCarthy has both a high floor and a high ceiling. I wouldn't mind going with a younger OC like Brady, Moore, or Kingsbury, but I also think that McCarthy would be a good hire that would be hard to argue with.