The Cost to Move Up in the Draft This Year vs Next Year

[SaintRay]

Lots of discussion taking place regarding the Saints moving up in the 2025 draft.

If it's Cam Ward we're after, expect to pay dearly to move up from #9 to #1. If we believe the QB class of 2026 is as deep as some suggest, with as many as 3-4 QB's as talented as Ward, perhaps waiting a year for the QB is the way to go.

Let's look at the NFL Trade Value Chart and assume it's somewhat close to what teams expect to pay in compensation when trading up. For this exercise, I'm leaving out the inclusion of players in any trade.



Trading up from #9 to #1
#1 is worth 3,000 points and #9 is worth 1,350 points. This will cost the Saints 1,650 points.
Expect to give up a bundle. Perhaps as much as 2-3 1st rounders and possibly other Day 2-3 picks.

Many claim the 2026 draft class is rich with QB's and Cam Ward would be only a Top 3-5 QB in that class.

Now lets assume the Saints finish 2025 with a 8-9 record. That's an aggressive prediction. You'd likely be drafting around #13-16 in the 2026 draft.



Moving up from #15 to #4 in the 2026 draft would cost the Saints 750 points. #4 is worth 1,800 points and #15 is 1,050 points.
This would be much more manageable for the team, and you'd still have a great shot at a Top QB in 2026 without giving up the farm.

Moving up to #3 would still be a reasonable move costing 1,150 points. That's 500 points less than the cost of moving up to #1 this year for Ward. Those 500 points are the value of our #40 selection in Round 2 this year.
Also consider the fact it will be easier to find trade partners when you are open to 2-3 teams trade slots versus only the Top Dog at #1. Moving up to #1 is always gonna cost a heavy premium.

Disclaimer: I realize not every trade is exactly predicated on trade chart value, but it's normally very close in compensation.

The Saints should take advantage of the chance to rebuild key positions this draft with the 4 picks they enjoy in the Top 3 rounds (#9, 40, 71, 93). You have a serious shot at finding 3-4 key players, not to mention another contributor or two in the later rounds. Then you go for your QB next year with a stronger, younger team surrounding him.

 

[St. Widge]

Lots of discussion taking place regarding the Saints moving up in the 2025 draft.

If it's Cam Ward we're after, expect to pay dearly to move up from #9 to #1. If we believe the QB class of 2026 is as deep as some suggest, with as many as 3-4 QB's as talented as Ward, perhaps waiting a year for the QB is the way to go.

Let's look at the NFL Trade Value Chart and assume it's somewhat close to what teams expect to pay in compensation when trading up. For this exercise, I'm leaving out the inclusion of players in any trade.



Trading up from #9 to #1
#1 is worth 3,000 points and #9 is worth 1,350 points. This will cost the Saints 1,650 points.
Expect to give up a bundle. Perhaps as much as 2-3 1st rounders and possibly other Day 2-3 picks.

Many claim the 2026 draft class is rich with QB's and Cam Ward would be only a Top 3-5 QB in that class.

Now lets assume the Saints finish 2025 with a 8-9 record. That's an aggressive prediction. You'd likely be drafting around #13-16 in the 2026 draft.



Moving up from #15 to #4 in the 2026 draft would cost the Saints 750 points. #4 is worth 1,800 points and #15 is 1,050 points.
This would be much more manageable for the team, and you'd still have a great shot at a Top QB in 2026 without giving up the farm.

Moving up to #3 would still be a reasonable move costing 1,150 points. That's 500 points less than the cost of moving up to #1 this year for Ward. Those 500 points are the value of our #40 selection in Round 2 this year.
Also consider the fact it will be easier to find trade partners when you are open to 2-3 teams trade slots versus only the Top Dog at #1. Moving up to #1 is always gonna cost a heavy premium.

Disclaimer: I realize not every trade is exactly predicated on trade chart value, but it's normally very close in compensation.

The Saints should take advantage of the chance to rebuild key positions this draft with the 4 picks they enjoy in the Top 3 rounds (#9, 40, 71, 93). You have a serious shot at finding 3-4 key players, not to mention another contributor or two in the later rounds. Then you go for your QB next year with a stronger, younger team surrounding him.

If those 3 to 4 QBs turn out to be as talented or more talented than Ward, which is far from a guarantee since none of them are there yet, then they are all likely to go in the first 5 or so picks. And, we are not likely to have a top 10 pick again so the cost is going to be fairly similar. And the differene doesn't matter if you hit on the right QB.

 

[3ParStillDriver]

Draft pick value is incredibly fluid. These charts honestly mean very little and its not even realistic to speculate off of. How many players have top 10 grade? How many players have first round grades? Second round grades? And so fourth. And that's not even getting into the team need vs talent available and what's ran the board. All of it drastically effects the value of the picks.

It's why every year, every team contacts every team to gauge compensation expectation for a particular draft pick, especially in the first round. Through those communications is where value and compensation ends up aligning and setting the market, and it changes quite a bit from draft to draft, in large part due to player grades.

If there is 4 franchise QB's in next year's draft close to or better than Ward this year, the cost will come down to "How many teams need a franchise QB?" If the need is low, the price drops. But wait! Theres more!? What if there's two generational pass rushers? Well, now the price increases.

Point being, to speculate right now cost to move up into next year's draft isn't just speculation. It's complete and utter guess work. These charts really hold no value to the people who make the calls on value vs compensation.

But I'll bite. Let's say the Saints finish with the 18th pick, and we want to move up to #4. Well, 3 first rounders are highly unlikely to get it done. But it's impossible to say how many 2nd or 3rd rounder's it will also require. What if their are only 20 players with a first round grade, and 20 players with a second round grade? That means our second round pick is now valued as a 3rd. See the dilemma?

 

[Geldo]

obviously a lot can happen in a year but is next year’s QB class really going to be that good.? Manning is not coming out and I’ve heard nothing to suggest the class will be deep and rich

 

[TribuneUK]

A lot of very polarised opinions on draft pick values that I'm not sure hold that much water. The OP is working to a scale that most teams at least start with when considering offers.

In terms of the original proposal, the issue is telling a franchise to hold their water for a year. The pressure to compete and win now is immense.

 

[3ParStillDriver]

obviously a lot can happen in a year but is next year’s QB class really going to be that good.? Manning is not coming out and I’ve heard nothing to suggest the class will be deep and rich

Little Nuss
Drew Allar
Carson Beck
LaNorris Sellers
Nico Iamaleava
Sam Leavitt
Cade Klubnik
Mill Moss
Jackson Arnold

Some of these guys may not declare for the draft, but theres a lot of talent and any one of these guys or even multiple could potentially take massive strides this season to become excellent draft picks. Most eyes are on Nuss, Allar, Sellers and Leavitt. At least, those 4 are who I'm watching.

Beck is taking over Ward's spot in Miami and I don't know much about Iamaleava.

 

[SaintRay]

Draft pick value is incredibly fluid. These charts honestly mean very little and its not even realistic to speculate off of. How many players have top 10 grade? How many players have first round grades? Second round grades? And so fourth. And that's not even getting into the team need vs talent available and what's ran the board. All of it drastically effects the value of the picks.

It's why every year, every team contacts every team to gauge compensation expectation for a particular draft pick, especially in the first round. Through those communications is where value and compensation ends up aligning and setting the market, and it changes quite a bit from draft to draft, in large part due to player grades.

If there is 4 franchise QB's in next year's draft close to or better than Ward this year, the cost will come down to "How many teams need a franchise QB?" If the need is low, the price drops. But wait! Theres more!? What if there's two generational pass rushers? Well, now the price increases.

Point being, to speculate right now cost to move up into next year's draft isn't just speculation. It's complete and utter guess work. These charts really hold no value to the people who make the calls on value vs compensation.

But I'll bite. Let's say the Saints finish with the 18th pick, and we want to move up to #4. Well, 3 first rounders are highly unlikely to get it done. But it's impossible to say how many 2nd or 3rd rounder's it will also require. What if their are only 20 players with a first round grade, and 20 players with a second round grade? That means our second round pick is now valued as a 3rd. See the dilemma?

I don't totally disagree, however teams do use the chart as a starting point when trading picks. And trading picks to reach #1-2 in the draft is extremely expensive.

Also if there are other players pushing QB's further down in the draft as you mentioned, the price of compensation now favors the team in need. Trading Pick #3 is always gonna fetch better compensation than say Pick #6 when a team is moving up from the mid teens.

I mentioned this when I posted the thread>>>

Disclaimer: I realize not every trade is exactly predicated on trade chart value, but it's normally very close in compensation.

And I'll agree with you that if your name is Mike Ditka, the trade chart means absolute zero to you.

 

[JackDiesel]

obviously a lot can happen in a year but is next year’s QB class really going to be that good.? Manning is not coming out and I’ve heard nothing to suggest the class will be deep and rich

There's 5-6 guys with potential but potential is the key word. Some won't live up to it, some will stay in school, I'm sure a new guy will show up on the radar.

Plus you run into the issue of teams actually wanting to trade down instead of just picking up their franchise QB.

 

[tim martin]

i’m in the vote where we never trade 3 firsts for anyone. those trades can just kill your franchise. RGIII types

 

[St. Widge]

A lot of very polarised opinions on draft pick values that I'm not sure hold that much water. The OP is working to a scale that most teams at least start with when considering offers.

In terms of the original proposal, the issue is telling a franchise to hold their water for a year. The pressure to compete and win now is immense.

The chart values remain the same, but the OP's post depends on many variables that we can't know and the charts are just guidelines. Will any of the QBs next year actually be worth a high pick? If they are as good or better than Ward will any team with a high pick want to trade down? Will the Saints be in the same relative pick range/cost as this year next year?

I could easily see a scenario where the Saints are picking in the teens and need to move into the top 5 to get a QB where it could cost as much or more next year. Maybe the reverse is true and they fall their face and have a top 5 pick all on their own, but that seems very unlikely to me.

So, I think trying to judge which year it will cost more or less to trade up and get a "franchise" QB is impossible to do. All you can do is identify the guy you think is going to be a franchise QB for you and decide if it is worth it in any given draft to move up to get him. If you wait, then you just don't know if you will be in a position to get the same or better player in future years.

 

[TribuneUK]

The OP literally covers the scenario you refer to (Saints pick range, QB pick range, cost of doing business) and how it's relatively less expensive in terms of traditional trade chart value than our situation this year. At no point does the OP say it's an absolute cert to happen that way, but posits how it might be better if it does.

So either you're describing some other scenario I cannot differentiate from that the OP describes, or you've disregarded what the OP describes. Or a perfectly valid third option I haven't thought of, no doubt

Meanwhile, I still think that teams will struggle to wait a year and be 'wise', as they are all trying to win now.

 

[St. Widge]

The OP literally covers the scenario you refer to (Saints pick range, QB pick range, cost of doing business) and how it's relatively less expensive in terms of traditional trade chart value than our situation this year. At no point does the OP say it's an absolute cert to happen that way, but posits how it might be better if it does.

So either you're describing some other scenario I cannot differentiate from that the OP describes, or you've disregarded what the OP describes. Or a perfectly valid third option I haven't thought of, no doubt

Meanwhile, I still think that teams will struggle to wait a year and be 'wise', as they are all trying to win now.

In his exact scenario sure, but there are far too many variables to predict if that scenario, or anything close to it will happen. Beyond that, the cost being a bit higher is more or less irrelevant if you hit on the right QB and you can't guarantee that the team you need to deal with will want to deal in any one year even if the cost would be lower. I just don't think you can ever make a definitive statement that it is better, or even that it will cost less, to move up for a QB in a future year.

In the end, it comes down to how much the team likes Ward and if the price the Titans demand isn't crazy. Whether it might cost less to move up in future years shouldn't really factor into the decision because you can't know that there will be a QB you like as much or better the next year, much less that a team will make that deal or that it will cost significantly less.

 

[Treybad]

We have players on this team that can lighten the load on picks, if the team we trading up too would be interested

 

[TribuneUK]

In his exact scenario sure, but there are far too many variables to predict if that scenario, or anything close to it will happen. Beyond that, the cost being a bit higher is more or less irrelevant if you hit on the right QB and you can't guarantee that the team you need to deal with will want to deal in any one year even if the cost would be lower. I just don't think you can ever make a definitive statement that it is better, or even that it will cost less, to move up for a QB in a future year.

In the end, it comes down to how much the team likes Ward and if the price the Titans demand isn't crazy. Whether it might cost less to move up in future years shouldn't really factor into the decision because you can't know that there will be a QB you like as much or better the next year, much less that a team will make that deal or that it will cost significantly less.

I still have to disagree (amiably of course) since the OP describes a specific scenario and how it computationally could be perceived as better value.

I think you are talking far more generally, which doesn't really relate to, and therefore does not debunk, the OP point. I do agree that a narrowly defined eventuality isn't necessarily that valuable in terms of wider strategy and decisions, however.

But it's not that big a deal.