The Investment Thread (12 Viewers)

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www.dailymail.co.uk

Hedge funds massive bet on stock market crash raises alarm for 401k's

Hedge funds have placed billions in short bets against U.S. stocks, signaling fears of a market collapse that could devastate 401(k)s and retirement savings while fueling Wall Street panic.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
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At the risk of the above post appearing in any way to be “political”- as opposed to what it actually is, which is just reality- i welcome any opposing view to balance things out.. matter of fact, i honestly hope there is someone, anyone out there who is bullish on the market in 2025 .. i would love that glimmer of hope for my brokerage account .
 
Tariffs hitting Canada, Mexico, and China today. I would not think the markets will respond in a positive way.
 
Bayouboy said:
Tariffs hitting Canada, Mexico, and China today. I would not think the markets will respond in a positive way.
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Possibly, but the markets have been somewhat irrational over the last several years and shrugged off repeated headline risks, i.e. the wars and conflicts, economic conditions, changes in politics and so forth and are still as high as they've ever been.

So I'm not convinced the market is gonna make any huge moves in the near term. But we'll see.
 
The Market has been kind of meh the last month, but one of my bright spots has been Dutch Brothers (BROS). They are all over out here in AZ.

I picked up some in August at $30-31/share. I sold some off a few days ago at $85/share. Currently around $82/share. They are definitely expanding. I'm not sure I'd get in at this price though, which is why I took profits.
 
Saint_Ward said:
The Market has been kind of meh the last month, but one of my bright spots has been Dutch Brothers (BROS). They are all over out here in AZ.

I picked up some in August at $30-31/share. I sold some off a few days ago at $85/share. Currently around $82/share. They are definitely expanding. I'm not sure I'd get in at this price though, which is why I took profits.
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There are a lot of risk-off signals right now. The only pro-growth indicators seem to be related to possible tax cuts. On the corporate side, tax cuts aren't going to create investment in growth when all of the other indicators are negative. The same thing happened in 2018 . . . tax cuts right before tariffs caused many companies to use the savings for dividends and buy-backs.

Perhaps that's the design, I don't know. But it seems to me like selling the S&P becoming the trade is more likely than not over the next six months. We'll see, the market's resiliency never ceases to amaze.
 
I opened a new position in Grove Collaborative in the last month or so. No debt. Declining revenues. They essentially sell reduced plastic home essentials.

On a side note. The last minute of Tilray (weed stock) was entertaining.

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It was about to close at a new all time low but a massive buy order happened right before the bell.
 
superchuck500 said:
There are a lot of risk-off signals right now. The only pro-growth indicators seem to be related to possible tax cuts. On the corporate side, tax cuts aren't going to create investment in growth when all of the other indicators are negative. The same thing happened in 2018 . . . tax cuts right before tariffs caused many companies to use the savings for dividends and buy-backs.

Perhaps that's the design, I don't know. But it seems to me like selling the S&P becoming the trade is more likely than not over the next six months. We'll see, the market's resiliency never ceases to amaze.
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HEI, one of my long holds, had a 13% pop today. I sold a little off, both the common stock and the class A. HEI closed at around $259 today. They were in the 270ish range 5-6 months ago, but with a pop like today, I find it wise to take some profits.

I'm glad the stock price broke the trend of falling after amazing earnings results. I felt like a lot of money pulled out of HEI due to the uncertainty of the overall market. HEI is a cash making machine, has smart owners, and is still growing. They are benefitting from the OEMs, like Boeing still struggling a bit on the commercial side.
 
Adding to above. I didn't add to my position, but to folks who have paid attention to me raving about HEI stock, the last couple of months were your buying opportunity. I don't like adding g shares when they are high.

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superchuck500 said:
Wait - you’re telling me that mass across-the-board tariffs, widespread layoffs, and canceling of leases, grants, and contracts is bad for the economy?

No
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All that is good, but abandoning Ukraine and Europe is even better.
 
bclemms said:
For the first time in my life I cant find a safe haven.
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I called my FA around 1230. Back in November I moved into defense stocks. Upon the complete 180 turn, I reached out today to sell those stocks.
Then went into "where to go" with him. He literally said "not sure yet".

I think we are in the first phase of lowering wealth for middle class Americans. There is a consolidation happening and we aren't inside that circle.

The crypto pump and dump yesterday was entirely too transparent.

I am truly concerned about how bad its going to get before we see upside.
 

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