"The Saints Ain't Sinners" (op-ed by 2 AEI economists in LA Times - merged) (25 Viewers)

[PayOrPlay]

Numbers don't support NFL's punishment for Saints players - latimes.com

Did the team's bounty system cause more injuries to opponents? The numbers don't back that up.

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Did the New Orleans Saints injure more players?

The data-driven answer is a resounding "no." The Saints appear to have injured far fewer players over the 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons. The numbers are striking. From 2009 to 2011, the Saints injured, on average, 3.2 opposing players each game. The rest of the teams in the league caused, on average, 3.8 injuries per game. This difference is highly statistically significant, or in other words, it would hold up in a court of law or a fancy academic journal. In each year of the bounty program, the Saints injured fewer players than the average for the league. In 2009, the Saints injured 2.8 players a game, and other teams injured on average 3.8. In 2010, it was 3.5 and 3.6, and in 2011 it was 3.3 and 3.8.

The Saints' behavior on the field was certainly aberrant, but positively so. Only one other team, the San Diego Chargers, injured fewer opponents per game over this entire time frame (3.1 injuries). Of the 32 teams, the Saints injured the third fewest in the 2009 season, the 15th fewest in 2010 and the third fewest in 2011. Might this record be linked to the Saints' being too weak or cowardly to respond to the bounties? Certainly not. Lily-livered players don't win Super Bowls.

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The NFL's case against the players should require documentation that the Saints injured significantly more players than average. They did not. The evidence, then, suggests that the Saints' story is consistent with a scenario in which the Saints players admirably ignored their coaches on bounty hits. Because no NFL player ever wins an argument with a coach, one can understand why the players might not have protested. But the data show that the bounty system is unlikely to have influenced their play.

Kevin Hassett is director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, where Stan Veuger is an economist and research fellow. Neither is a Saints fan.

 

[yurintroubl]

That's a good read from a neutral source that's actually crunched some numbers for the masses. Thanks for posting!

 

[diat150]

its unofrtunate that the media and the talking heads wont even give this a soundbyte.

 

[AARPSaint]

Exactly what we have been saying for months. Of course, the NFL investigators didn't bother to do a study like this during their "thorough" investigation. Onve again, where is the evidence?

 

[yurintroubl]

its unofrtunate that the media and the talking heads wont even give this a soundbyte.

Uh... The LA Times IS a member of "media" last I checked... but I get what you're saying.

I know most of the national guys are done "reporting" on bounty stuff... But this is worth hitting them up on twitter with a link when the next round of legal stuff gets underway.

 

[billinms]

Right now Roger Goodell is ordering the suspension of two enonomists.

 

[saintsfanfl]

Awesome piece albeit an op-ed. It still provides detailed statistics about the league and the Saints as it relates to the accusations.

I just tweeted it with a mention of @nflcommish. Not that he even cares about statistics.

 

[Brad01]

I'm glad someone finally put that research in to compare injuries from the Saints to all other teams.

One of the arguments by the NFL is that the Saints were top 5 in roughing the passer penalties over three years, but they coincidentally never mentioned anything about the injury (or fines for illegal hits) comparisons.

Someone should send this to Vilma. I'm sure they'll use this as further evidence that supports their stance against the NFL in their upcoming hearings.

 

[daMixter]

I likey

 

[superchuck500]

One of the arguments by the NFL is that the Saints were top 5 in roughing the passer penalties over three years, but they coincidentally never mentioned anything about the injury (or fines for illegal hits) comparisons.

They also never mention that the Saints were consistently #1 in the league on blitz frequency. The whole scheme was designed to get to the QB, and in this day and age, that alone equals more penalties.

This fact, plus the lack of injuries, IMO, discredits any argument that the Saints' penalty data evidences a bounty system.

 

[AARPSaint]

That's a good read from a neutral source that's actually crunched some numbers for the masses. Thanks for posting!

That is an excellent point. And unlike Mary Jo White, a prosecutor who works for a firm with NFL connections, this really is a neutral source. As far as we know, neither the Saints nor the NFL paid them to compile the statistics. And, as far as we know, neither writer has any connection with the NFL or the Saints.

 

[clockworkoranges]

As a social scientist, seeing the use of statistical significance testing made me so happy

I wish the raw numbers were provided so that I could see the p-value, which would tell me how likely or unlikely it is that the Saints' low injury rate is due to random chance or due to something else. That "something else" could be anything, but it *could* be because they have pay-for-performance incentives to NOT get penalties. In other words, the pay-for-performance pool led to SAFER play on the field, which we all know Goodell cares so much about

 

[AARPSaint]

They also never mention that the Saints were consistently #1 in the league on blitz frequency. The whole scheme was designed to get to the QB, and in this day and age, that alone equals more penalties.

This fact, plus the lack of injuries, IMO, discredits any argument that the Saints' penalty data evidences a bounty system.

Another good point. The over-blitzing did not seem to increase the injuries to opposing players either. And let's not forget the Kareem McKenzie injury where he injured himself trying to recover a fumble. I wonder if they counted that one.

 

[saintgirly]

Word! The Saints "Bounty System" was an epic fail .lalalalala

 

[willkro]

This really makes me angry! We are being made scapgoats.