"The Saints Ain't Sinners" (op-ed by 2 AEI economists in LA Times - merged) (62 Viewers)

[Sophandros]

There were several of us on this site who asked the question whether or not we caused more injuries than what would be expected and whether we committed an abnormal amount of penalties.

If we were incentivizing injuries, then the numbers would bear that out. As this report shows, that was clearly not the case.

We are left with two conclusions:

Either the coaches attempted to incentivize injuries and the players ignored those enticements (the conclusion that the LA Times came to, which presupposes that the league's assertion is accurate),

OR

Such incentives did not exist, which explains why the Saints did not injury opponents at a higher than average rate.

 

[Sophandros]

I likey

That you, Jonathan?

 

[clockworkoranges]

There were several of us on this site who asked the question whether or not we caused more injuries than what would be expected and whether we committed an abnormal amount of penalties.

If we were incentivizing injuries, then the numbers would bear that out. As this report shows, that was clearly not the case.

We are left with two conclusions:

Either the coaches attempted to incentivize injuries and the players ignored those enticements (the conclusion that the LA Times came to, which presupposes that the league's assertion is accurate),

OR

Such incentives did not exist, which explains why the Saints did not injury opponents at a higher than average rate.

Regarding the former....it's possible the incentives were not enough to alter performance and not just ignored. There are tons of psychological studies that demonstrate failed intervention strategies.

Regarding the latter...pay-for-performance incentives DID exist, as has been admitted by just about everyone associated with this scandal, and the evidence suggests these incentives WERE EFFECTIVE in reducing penalties and sloppy, reckless playing because GW financially penalized players who made big plays but got a flag on the play. Perhaps THAT was GW's motivation: to get players to make clean, penalty-free big plays.

Regardless, it's not likely that we will never know the answer as to why the Saints have below average opponent injury rates, as there are too many variables to consider. But as a social scientist, I would love to run an experiment to see if pay-for-performance pools are an effective motivational tactic and yield better, safer performances.

 

[Sophandros]

Regarding the former....it's possible the incentives were not enough to alter performance and not just ignored. There are tons of psychological studies that demonstrate failed intervention strategies.

Regarding the latter...pay-for-performance incentives DID exist, as has been admitted by just about everyone associated with this scandal, and the evidence suggests these incentives WERE EFFECTIVE in reducing penalties and sloppy, reckless playing because GW financially penalized players who made big plays but got a flag on the play. Perhaps THAT was GW's motivation: to get players to make clean, penalty-free big plays.

Regardless, it's not likely that we will never know the answer as to why the Saints have below average opponent injury rates, as there are too many variables to consider. But as a social scientist, I would love to run an experiment to see if pay-for-performance pools are an effective motivational tactic and yield better, safer performances.

That's kind of the point behind my conclusion, which is that the league took a major leap to go from pay for performance to pay for injury.

Pay for performance pools are effective motivational tactics in the normal business world (I've done a little bit of work in incentive compensation earlier in my career), but they also inadvertently encourage unethical conduct from time to time, once people figure out how to game the system. But that's an EE discussion...

 

[clockworkoranges]

That's kind of the point behind my conclusion, which is that the league took a major leap to go from pay for performance to pay for injury.

Pay for performance pools are effective motivational tactics in the normal business world (I've done a little bit of work in incentive compensation earlier in my career), but they also inadvertently encourage unethical conduct from time to time, once people figure out how to game the system. But that's an EE discussion...

Oh ok, it's a matter of semantics. I picked up on the word "incentivize" in your first post and clarified that the Saints actually DID do that, just not for injuries. Tomato/tomahto, or for Goodell, tomato/bounty.

But still, I must say, I posted this LA Times article on Facebook, and of all bounty-related links I've posted (which is a lot), this one seemed to get the most attention of my FB friends, perhaps because I have a lot of fellow academics as FB friends.

 

[Texans_Chick]

Oh ok, it's a matter of semantics. I picked up on the word "incentivize" in your first post and clarified that the Saints actually DID do that, just not for injuries. Tomato/tomahto, or for Goodell, tomato/bounty.

But still, I must say, I posted this LA Times article on Facebook, and of all bounty-related links I've posted (which is a lot), this one seemed to get the most attention of my FB friends, perhaps because I have a lot of fellow academics as FB friends.

I put this with comment on my Twitter feed based on a headsup on a comment on my blog. My tweet on this has been RT'd over 70+ times, including by Scott Fujita, various NFL writers. This obviously has great interest. But I think the NFL doesn't care because it is all about the program, getting people to ignore than the NFL is inherently violent, injuring players by its nature. Once you get beyond fining what you see, but rather on differing memories, it gets sketchy.

https://twitter.com/StephStradley/status/224629022028595200

 

[SaintsFanInVegas]

I wish that you were correct.

Go to any other team's message board and post as rationally as possible that Goodell has exagerated the evidence and they will act like you just stated that Bigfoot killed Kennedy in an effort to cover up George Bush's involvement in blowing up the World Trade Center which was a distraction to mask the fact the moon landings were fake.

It is bizzare.

This is perhaps the main reason that I make it a point to avoid other team's boards. Of course, watch how their tune will change when it's their team that RG goes after next.

 

[iamasaint4life]

The Saints ain't sinners

Did the team's bounty system cause more injuries to opponents? The numbers don't back that up.

Numbers don't support NFL's punishment for Saints players - latimes.com

 

[SAINTIN NEBR]

hmmm whataya know... what we've been saying all along.. nice to have a large market newspaper put the truth out there... unlike the idiots in the four-lettered cable network , who are nothing more than a bunch of hacks who kiss the ring of their king, in hopes of getting a crumb from his table.

 

[gboudx]

That article was posted like 2 weeks ago, but still a good read for anyone that missed it.

 

[Mardiboys]

Nice story - the only part I don't like is where they assume there was a bounty program in existence, but the players ignored it. He should have used the numbers to support a conclusion that there was not bounty program.

 

[Madhattr]

Great article followed by stupid, idiotic, lemming like comments from 49er fans and others. The iq of some of them must be pretty low. Bunch of Morans lol.

 

[GW93]

Does Roger Goodell have a pubic email address? rgoodell@nfl.com or anything like that? I'm thinking of sending this to him every week and twice a week during the playoffs.

 

[RaisingTheBar]

Did the New Orleans Saints injure more players?

The data-driven answer is a resounding "no." The Saints appear to have injured far fewer players over the 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons. The numbers are striking. From 2009 to 2011, the Saints injured, on average, 3.2 opposing players each game. The rest of the teams in the league caused, on average, 3.8 injuries per game. This difference is highly statistically significant, or in other words, it would hold up in a court of law or a fancy academic journal. In each year of the bounty program, the Saints injured fewer players than the average for the league. In 2009, the Saints injured 2.8 players a game, and other teams injured on average 3.8. In 2010, it was 3.5 and 3.6, and in 2011 it was 3.3 and 3.8.

The Saints' behavior on the field was certainly aberrant, but positively so. Only one other team, the San Diego Chargers, injured fewer opponents per game over this entire time frame (3.1 injuries). Of the 32 teams, the Saints injured the third fewest in the 2009 season, the 15th fewest in 2010 and the third fewest in 2011. Might this record be linked to the Saints' being too weak or cowardly to respond to the bounties? Certainly not. Lily-livered players don't win Super Bowls.

..

 

[superchuck500]

Does Roger Goodell have a pubic email address? rgoodell@nfl.com or anything like that? I'm thinking of sending this to him every week and twice a week during the playoffs.

They're definitely aware of it - Vilma filed it as an exhibit in the ligation.