The Saints are relevant at 3-4, and in the hunt at 4-4 (1 Viewer)

[st dude]

The odds of an 0-3 team making the playoffs are less than 2%. But the Saints are no longer an 0-3 team, they are a 3-4 team. The good news is they have increased their chances by a factor of 4 to 8%. The bad news is that we still have a 92% chance we don't make the playoffs. This is according to sports stats:

National Football League Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

You will notice that the odds for 3-4 Seattle making the playoffs are 25%, much better. That is not because the stats folks think Seattle is that much better than New Orleans, it is because the West division is wide open and might be won with a 9-7 record.

What is hurting the Saints are the records of its divisions opponents, the Falcons being 6-1 and the Panthers 5-0, and the Saints losses to Carolina and Tampa. The likely road for the saints to the playoffs is as a wild card which would mean they probably need to get to at least 10-6. 6-3 over their last nine games. That's tough, but doable if they stay hot.

Stats are just stats though, and do not always account for all the variables. The computer sees the Saints at 3-4, not necessarily accounting for the fact the Saints are 3-1 over their last four games and playing better than other 3-4 teams.

This is where kwtpf comes into play for the Carolina/Philly game. I am not ready to concede the division to the Panthers and we have a win over the Falcons. Should the Panthers drop a game the Saints would have just two less wins than the Panthers and we get them at home later. We want Carolina to lose, but if they win it is not all bad as a potential wild card rival, Philly, gets another loss.

Its all still a longshot, but the games are so much more fun when they are relevant and a 3-4 team is relevant, a 4-4 team much more so. And if Carolina does lose this week, our odds go up because the division title is less out of reach.

It wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor and not over yet for the 2015 Saints. Everyone had to be encouraged with some signs of life from our running game and the young talent on defense that seems to be making more plays.

http://saintsreport.com/forums/f2/over-when-germans-bombed-pearl-harbor-346774/#post6170805

 

[Alan]

Season is not over.

Those pesky Germans should have learned to not bomb pearl harbor!

 

[AARPSaint]

It's the defense that's improving rapidly. Breaux is looking like a pro bowler. Ellerbe has made a big difference. Cam Jordan is playing great. That puts an excellent player on all three levels. Add to that Kikaha and Anthony, who are learning the game, and you have a really promising defense. These guys are young and improving. A good draft can make a tremendous impact.

It's a good thing that the defense is actually performing well. On the other hand the offense often sputters at the worst times. Let's not forget that Drew Brees is running the offense. It won't get worse.

This adds up, so to speak, to a 3-4 record. But it's an ascendant 3-4 record. The team is not regressing from a hot start; they are improving from a terrible start. A win against a good team like the Colts in their house is unbelievably encouraging.

 

[Darth Deuce]

We are a game and a half out of the last wildcard spot (Vikings 4-2). Our next three opponents (before the BYE) have a combined record of 8-12 with two of those games at home. It's not over, but we still have things that need to be fixed.

 

[Domeination]

There's a lot to play for, but no one on or around this team (including the fans, IMO) should be talking about playoffs right now--only about the next game. I remember when the Saints came back from terrible starts to the season two other times under Payton, and in both cases they faded in the end. I would like to see them get on a roll before I even start thinking about playoffs. Right now, my thinking is that the O line is not good enough and the D is still not quite solid enough for them to do anything special this season. I hope they gel and that changes.

 

[saintsfan4210]

The panthers will get all the right bounces tonight probaby as usual

 

[Zztop]

if this team actually makes the playoffs our coach should win coach of the year.

 

[GAWhoDat]

I love the Saints dearly but if the other team gave you 3 fumbles and a 20pt lead and you almost blow it that is not something I want to hang my hat on. The 2nd week in a row turnovers have saved us.. No way no how I would even put the saints and playoffs in the same sentence without a "face palm" emoticon.

 

[Domeination]

The 2nd week in a row turnovers have saved us.

To be fair, forcing turnovers and not giving them up enabled us to win two weeks in a row. If we do this more often, we'll win a lot more.

 

[st dude]

There's a lot to play for, but no one on or around this team (including the fans, IMO) should be talking about playoffs right now--only about the next game. .

I think this depends on the context in which you discuss playoffs.

So long as you team reasonably remains in the playoff hunt, your fan base stays energized. So in that context, thinking you still have a fighters chance is important.

Because the Saints have clawed their way back into the conversation, the crowd at next weeks game in the dome with the Giants will be wild. So yes, play your games one at a time, but there is nothing wrong with discussing how a 3-1 stretch has put you back in the playoff conversation.

We are still a longshot and probably need a lot of help, but we are relevant and so long as you are relevant your fans stay engaged.

 

[Brennan77]

I love the Saints dearly but if the other team gave you 3 fumbles and a 20pt lead and you almost blow it that is not something I want to hang my hat on. The 2nd week in a row turnovers have saved us.. No way no how I would even put the saints and playoffs in the same sentence without a "face palm" emoticon.

And if turnovers went the other way you'd assign blame. We created those turnovers so they count as good play. The defense is coming around. The coaches are understanding what we have and calling the games accordingly. We won. Period. Enjoy it.

 

[Domeination]

I think this depends on the context in which you discuss playoffs.

The context is right now the Panthers are undefeated, Atlanta has just one loss, we've lost two games in the division including to the worst team in the division, and we're under .500. My son and I may end up going to the Giants game (my dad has season tickets and gives them to us for some games), and of course I'll yell my head off if I go, but talking playoffs is premature at this juncture. It is what it is.

 

[Alan]

It is NEVER over until the final whistle.

The context is right now the Panthers are undefeated, Atlanta has just one loss...

Regarding Atlanta. They just pulled off a win against Titans with a score of 10 - 7. Another year where everything is handed to them will result in another year where they score 2 points in a playoff.

Panthers? They have a defense that bails them out. GO EAGLES!!! Did I just say that?

Looking forward to the final win/loss of the season.

 

[monty]

And if turnovers went the other way you'd assign blame. We created those turnovers so they count as good play. The defense is coming around. The coaches are understanding what we have and calling the games accordingly. We won. Period. Enjoy it.

Exactly. Turnovers are part of the game. Some fans were complaining when the defense was not creating turnovers, and now complain for creating turnovers but are because the other team causes them instead of the defense causing the turnovers. It is the offense that is not capitalizing off the turnovers.

 

[The Saint]

Great, for a second there I thought this was another defensive alignment thread.