The Saints Broke The Law Of Hill The Past Two Weeks (1 Viewer)

[Artifactual]

Not to be confused with Murphys Law, it's the Law of Hill.

Through the first 10 games of the 2023 season, the Saints were 18-1 when Taysom Hill rushed 7 or more times in a game in his career. He had 7 carries against the Dirty Birds in a loss. The Saints fell to an 18-2 record in games that Hill had 7 carries or more in a game in his career after the loss to ATL.

Since the beginning of the 2022 season the Saints were 9-0 when Taysom Hill rushed for 40 yards or more during a game for the past 28 games and they were 3-16 when he didn't rush for 40 or more yards in a game, prior to playing Detroit. Taysom rushed 13 times for 59 yards against the Lions in a loss. The Saints are now 9-1 when TH7 rushes for 40 yards or more in a game since the beginning of the 2022 season and 3-16 when he doesn't.

Before the Detroit game the Saints were 17-1 in games that Hill rushed for 40 yards or more in a game during his career. Now they are 17-2 in such games.

Before the Detroit game the Saints were 18-2 in games in which Taysom rushed 7 or more times in a game in his career. Now the Saints are 18-3 in such games.

Before the Atlanta and Detroit games the Saints had won 90% of the games when Taysom got 8 or more touches in a game in his career. He had more than 8 touches in both games, which the Saints lost both. The Saints have now won only 80% of the games in which Taysom gets 8 or more touches in a game in his career.

So, in the last 2 games the Saints have defied the Law of Hill, the eye-popping stats in games in which he gets 7 or more rushes, 40 or more rushing yards, and/or 8 or more total touches in a game.

Does this mean that those stats are meaningless? Hardly. They are still eye-popping to read and to consider their implications. Most of us here have agreed that the Saints should use Taysom more throughout the games, at least to a point to get him the 7 or more rushing attempts and the 8 or more total touches in a game, since many of the games have often unfolded without those numbers being reached. The 40 yards or more in a game is a real tell where winning is concerned. Taysom got the carries and touches in the ATL game but not the 40 yards rushing threshold. His fumble was costly along with the many other mistakes the offense committed in that game. That can't be denied or overlooked. In the Detroit game he exceeded all of the stats that normally spell victory for the Saints but to no avail. Falling behind 21-0 early in the 1st quarter was a deficit that masked a lot of good things that happened afterwards. If the Saints could start games with a 10+ point lead instead of playing from behind they entire flow of the games would look different.

What stands out in the Vikings loss and the Lions loss, even after falling behind early, is that the Saints had the ball inside the opponents territory in the closing minutes of each game with a chance to take the lead but went away from both Hill and Kamara in those games and instead, chose to throw the ball, only to fail to score in those situations in both contests which resulted in losses.

With both Carr and Hill banged up as the Saints get ready to play the Panthers this week it will be interesting to see who plays, and how they are used in the Panthers game if they do play.

If and when healthy, the Saints should try to implement the Law of Hill every game. He doesn't have to be the featured guy. Kamara is That Guy. Mixing Hill in throughout the game to give a change of pace and a spark to the team is refreshing. He is a dominant runner on 1st Downs, yet the Saint Coaching Staff mostly rely on him in the short yardage game, which he is also successful in. However, using him a bit more on 1st Downs to set up short yardage down and distances for 2nd and/or 3rd downs could improve the offensive efficiency. The Saints have a one-of-a-kind tool in their kit, but they rarely use it to its maximum effect throughout the course of a game. The 7 or more carries, the 8 or more touches, nor the 40 or more rushing yards in a game guarantee nothing, but the Law of Hill proves, that when attained, the Saints chances of winning drastically increase.

 

[Koolbrees]

Not to be confused with Murphys Law, it's the Law of Hill.

Through the first 10 games of the 2023 season, the Saints were 18-1 when Taysom Hill rushed 7 or more times in a game in his career. He had 7 carries against the Dirty Birds in a loss. The Saints fell to an 18-2 record in games that Hill had 7 carries or more in a game in his career after the loss to ATL.

Since the beginning of the 2022 season the Saints were 9-0 when Taysom Hill rushed for 40 yards or more during a game for the past 28 games and they were 3-16 when he didn't rush for 40 or more yards in a game, prior to playing Detroit. Taysom rushed 13 times for 59 yards against the Lions in a loss. The Saints are now 9-1 when TH7 rushes for 40 yards or more in a game since the beginning of the 2022 season and 3-16 when he doesn't.

Before the Detroit game the Saints were 17-1 in games that Hill rushed for 40 yards or more in a game during his career. Now they are 17-2 in such games.

Before the Detroit game the Saints were 18-2 in games in which Taysom rushed 7 or more times in a game in his career. Now the Saints are 18-3 in such games.

Before the Atlanta and Detroit games the Saints had won 90% of the games when Taysom got 8 or more touches in a game in his career. He had more than 8 touches in both games, which the Saints lost both. The Saints have now won only 80% of the games in which Taysom gets 8 or more touches in a game in his career.

So, in the last 2 games the Saints have defied the Law of Hill, the eye-popping stats in games in which he gets 7 or more rushes, 40 or more rushing yards, and/or 8 or more total touches in a game.

Does this mean that those stats are meaningless? Hardly. They are still eye-popping to read and to consider their implications. Most of us here have agreed that the Saints should use Taysom more throughout the games, at least to a point to get him the 7 or more rushing attempts and the 8 or more total touches in a game, since many of the games have often unfolded without those numbers being reached. The 40 yards or more in a game is a real tell where winning is concerned. Taysom got the carries and touches in the ATL game but not the 40 yards rushing threshold. His fumble was costly along with the many other mistakes the offense committed in that game. That can't be denied or overlooked. In the Detroit game he exceeded all of the stats that normally spell victory for the Saints but to no avail. Falling behind 21-0 early in the 1st quarter was a deficit that masked a lot of good things that happened afterwards. If the Saints could start games with a 10+ point lead instead of playing from behind they entire flow of the games would look different.

What stands out in the Vikings loss and the Lions loss, even after falling behind early, is that the Saints had the ball inside the opponents territory in the closing minutes of each game with a chance to take the lead but went away from both Hill and Kamara in those games and instead, chose to throw the ball, only to fail to score in those situations in both contests which resulted in losses.

With both Carr and Hill banged up as the Saints get ready to play the Panthers this week it will be interesting to see who plays, and how they are used in the Panthers game if they do play.

If and when healthy, the Saints should try to implement the Law of Hill every game. He doesn't have to be the featured guy. Kamara is That Guy. Mixing Hill in throughout the game to give a change of pace and a spark to the team is refreshing. He is a dominant runner on 1st Downs, yet the Saint Coaching Staff mostly rely on him in the short yardage game, which he is also successful in. However, using him a bit more on 1st Downs to set up short yardage down and distances for 2nd and/or 3rd downs could improve the offensive efficiency. The Saints have a one-of-a-kind tool in their kit, but they rarely use it to its maximum effect throughout the course of a game. The 7 or more carries, the 8 or more touches, nor the 40 or more rushing yards in a game guarantee nothing, but the Law of Hill proves, that when attained, the Saints chances of winning drastically increase.

That was awesome research and insightful

Now if I may add, I believe the offensive coordinator should install more passing plays (not the deep ball) for Taysom. He needs to have chemistry with the receiving corps. If he can complete short to medium passes he becomes more of a dual-threat.

 

[inetnawlins]

To me the thing that negated the usual win when Taysom hits a certain threshhold is turnovers. Doesn’t matter what you do if you turn the ball over repeatedly.

 

[St4ever]

What this tells me is Taysom alone cannot win us games, the other players have to contribute also!

 

[BayouSAINTJoe]

Correlation =/= causation

 

[mr.t]

Not to be confused with Murphys Law, it's the Law of Hill.

Through the first 10 games of the 2023 season, the Saints were 18-1 when Taysom Hill rushed 7 or more times in a game in his career. He had 7 carries against the Dirty Birds in a loss. The Saints fell to an 18-2 record in games that Hill had 7 carries or more in a game in his career after the loss to ATL.

Since the beginning of the 2022 season the Saints were 9-0 when Taysom Hill rushed for 40 yards or more during a game for the past 28 games and they were 3-16 when he didn't rush for 40 or more yards in a game, prior to playing Detroit. Taysom rushed 13 times for 59 yards against the Lions in a loss. The Saints are now 9-1 when TH7 rushes for 40 yards or more in a game since the beginning of the 2022 season and 3-16 when he doesn't.

Before the Detroit game the Saints were 17-1 in games that Hill rushed for 40 yards or more in a game during his career. Now they are 17-2 in such games.

Before the Detroit game the Saints were 18-2 in games in which Taysom rushed 7 or more times in a game in his career. Now the Saints are 18-3 in such games.

Before the Atlanta and Detroit games the Saints had won 90% of the games when Taysom got 8 or more touches in a game in his career. He had more than 8 touches in both games, which the Saints lost both. The Saints have now won only 80% of the games in which Taysom gets 8 or more touches in a game in his career.

So, in the last 2 games the Saints have defied the Law of Hill, the eye-popping stats in games in which he gets 7 or more rushes, 40 or more rushing yards, and/or 8 or more total touches in a game.

Does this mean that those stats are meaningless? Hardly. They are still eye-popping to read and to consider their implications. Most of us here have agreed that the Saints should use Taysom more throughout the games, at least to a point to get him the 7 or more rushing attempts and the 8 or more total touches in a game, since many of the games have often unfolded without those numbers being reached. The 40 yards or more in a game is a real tell where winning is concerned. Taysom got the carries and touches in the ATL game but not the 40 yards rushing threshold. His fumble was costly along with the many other mistakes the offense committed in that game. That can't be denied or overlooked. In the Detroit game he exceeded all of the stats that normally spell victory for the Saints but to no avail. Falling behind 21-0 early in the 1st quarter was a deficit that masked a lot of good things that happened afterwards. If the Saints could start games with a 10+ point lead instead of playing from behind they entire flow of the games would look different.

What stands out in the Vikings loss and the Lions loss, even after falling behind early, is that the Saints had the ball inside the opponents territory in the closing minutes of each game with a chance to take the lead but went away from both Hill and Kamara in those games and instead, chose to throw the ball, only to fail to score in those situations in both contests which resulted in losses.

With both Carr and Hill banged up as the Saints get ready to play the Panthers this week it will be interesting to see who plays, and how they are used in the Panthers game if they do play.

If and when healthy, the Saints should try to implement the Law of Hill every game. He doesn't have to be the featured guy. Kamara is That Guy. Mixing Hill in throughout the game to give a change of pace and a spark to the team is refreshing. He is a dominant runner on 1st Downs, yet the Saint Coaching Staff mostly rely on him in the short yardage game, which he is also successful in. However, using him a bit more on 1st Downs to set up short yardage down and distances for 2nd and/or 3rd downs could improve the offensive efficiency. The Saints have a one-of-a-kind tool in their kit, but they rarely use it to its maximum effect throughout the course of a game. The 7 or more carries, the 8 or more touches, nor the 40 or more rushing yards in a game guarantee nothing, but the Law of Hill proves, that when attained, the Saints chances of winning drastically increase.

The Only people who don't realize that are the coaching staff

 

[los226]

I call it the DA effect

 

[jahsoul357]

Correlation =/= causation

It never made sense because before 2022, Taysom only had more than 7 carries in 10 games and 7 of those came when he was starting. The other 3 games were all in 2020, and in 2 of the games, our opponents were already down 2 scores (49ers and Panthers) before he had his 4th rush. Not going to lie; he did his thing when we blew the Bucs out.

"The Law of Hill" is a recent phenomenon, starting in 2022.

 

[Artifactual]

It never made sense because before 2022, Taysom only had more than 7 carries in 10 games and 7 of those came when he was starting. The other 3 games were all in 2020, and in 2 of the games, our opponents were already down 2 scores (49ers and Panthers) before he had his 4th rush. Not going to lie; he did his thing when we blew the Bucs out.

"The Law of Hill" is a recent phenomenon, starting in 2022.

Good job putting in the effort to do some research, although somewhat limited to paint a picture that attempts to dismiss "The Law of Hill".

It must first be noted that it's not Hills fault Payton didn't realize the weapon he had early on, and that dumb and dumber still don't.

In 2017 Hill didn't get a Single Carry. Zero!

In 2018 Hill only got 37 carries in 16 games, an average of only 2.3 rushing attempts per game, though he had a 5.3 average yards per carry.

In 2019 Hill only got 27 carries in 16 games, an average of only 1.7 rushing attempts per game, though he had a 5.8 average yards per carry.

In 2020 Hills carries increased to 87 over 16 games, an average of 5.4 rushing attempts per game, though he had a 5.3 average yards per carry.

In 2021 Hill carried the ball 70 times in the 12 games he played, an average of 5.8 attempts per game, though he had a 5.3 average yards per carry.

In 2022 Hill carried the ball 96 times over 16 games he played, an average of 6.0 attempts per game, though he had a 6.0 average yards per carry.

In 2023 Hill has carried the ball 70 times over 12 games thus far, an average of 5.8 attempts per game, though he is averaging 5.0 yards per carry.

So, in the 93 games Hill has played in he has averaged only 4.2 attempts per game, although he has a career rushing average of 5.4 yards per carry.


You failed to mention that in 2020 Hill had 6 games in which he carried the ball 7 or more times. The Saints won all 6 of those games (100%).
You also failed to mention that in 2020 Hill had 6 games in which he rushed for 40 or more yards. The Saints won all 6 of those games (100%).

Hills career attempts when the Saints are leading or trailing are virtually even, with a smaller number of them coming when tied. He doesn't get to choose when.

Hill has a Rushing Success Rate of 67.1% thus far in 2023, trailing only Josh Allen at 67.7% for players who have carried the ball at least 10 times this year.

For perspective, Alvin Kamara has a Rushing Success Rate of 48.9% so far in 2023. In their careers Hill has an incredible Rushing Success Rate of 60.2%. Kamara has an impressive career Rushing Success Rate of 50.6%. These are the Saints most successful rushers on the current team. Kamara is averaging 14.3 rushing attempts per game so far in 2023 averaging 3.8 yards per carry. Kamara has a career average of 13.1 carries per game with a career average of 4.5 yards per attempt. Both players entered the league as Saints in 2017. With 7 years of data, you would think the Saints would figure out a little better balance would be complimentary football for these two players, keeping Kamara a bit fresher and giving Hill a few more chances to lay his assault on opposing defenses.

Both the current and former coaching staffs have yet to figure out that "The Law of Hill" to be in effect requires at least 7 rushing attempts per game, with 40 or more rushing yards per game, and 8 or more touches in a game, or some combination thereof.

Taysom Hill:

Phenomenal Yes! He's A Beast! There's Not A Single Player In The NFL Like Him!
Phenomenon No! He's No Fluke! He's Underutilized!

"The Law of Hill" is REAL!!!

 

[DisplacedSaint]

I hate to say it, but had Carr not gone down, we would have won that game. Dude was on fire.

 

[jahsoul357]

Good job putting in the effort to do some research, although somewhat limited to paint a picture that attempts to dismiss "The Law of Hill".

It must first be noted that it's not Hills fault Payton didn't realize the weapon he had early on, and that dumb and dumber still don't.

In 2017 Hill didn't get a Single Carry. Zero!

In 2018 Hill only got 37 carries in 16 games, an average of only 2.3 rushing attempts per game, though he had a 5.3 average yards per carry.

In 2019 Hill only got 27 carries in 16 games, an average of only 1.7 rushing attempts per game, though he had a 5.8 average yards per carry.

In 2020 Hills carries increased to 87 over 16 games, an average of 5.4 rushing attempts per game, though he had a 5.3 average yards per carry.

In 2021 Hill carried the ball 70 times in the 12 games he played, an average of 5.8 attempts per game, though he had a 5.3 average yards per carry.

In 2022 Hill carried the ball 96 times over 16 games he played, an average of 6.0 attempts per game, though he had a 6.0 average yards per carry.

In 2023 Hill has carried the ball 70 times over 12 games thus far, an average of 5.8 attempts per game, though he is averaging 5.0 yards per carry.

So, in the 93 games Hill has played in he has averaged only 4.2 attempts per game, although he has a career rushing average of 5.4 yards per carry.


You failed to mention that in 2020 Hill had 6 games in which he carried the ball 7 or more times. The Saints won all 6 of those games (100%).
You also failed to mention that in 2020 Hill had 6 games in which he rushed for 40 or more yards. The Saints won all 6 of those games (100%).

Hills career attempts when the Saints are leading or trailing are virtually even, with a smaller number of them coming when tied. He doesn't choose when.

Hill has a Rushing Success Rate of 67.1% thus far in 2023, trailing only Josh Allen at 67.7% for players who have carried the ball at least 10 times this year.

For perspective, Alvin Kamara has a Rushing Success Rate of 48.9% so far in 2023. In their careers Hill has an incredible Rushing Success Rate of 60.2%. Kamara has an impressive career Rushing Success Rate of 50.6%. These are the Saints most successful rushers on the current team. Kamara is averaging 14.3 rushing attempts per game so far in 2023 averaging 3.8 yards per carry. Kamara has a career average of 13.1 carries per game with a career average of 4.5 yards per attempt. Both players entered the league as Saints in 2017. With 7 years of data, you would think the Saints would figure out a little better balance would be complimentary football for these two players, keeping Kamara a bit fresher and giving Hill a few more chances to lay his assault on opposing defenses.

Both the current and former coaching staffs have yet to figure out that "The Law of Hill" to be in effect requires at least 7 rushing attempts per game, with 40 or more rushing yards per game, and 8 or more touches in a game, or some combination thereof.

Taysom Hill:

Phenomenal Yes! He's A Beast! There's Not A Single Player In The NFL Like Him!
Phenomenon No! He's No Fluke! He's Underutilized!

"The Law of Hill" is REAL!!!

Actually, I did bring that up. Taysom never carried more than 7 times once until 2020. Our record: 37-11

In 2020, Taysom carried the ball 7 more times in 6 games and 3 of those were across games that he started as QB. The other 3 game were against the Bucs, 49ers, and Panthers. In the game against but the 49ers and Panthers, we were up 2 scores before Taysom registered his 4th carry. The only game where he rushing was actually significant to the win in the game that he didn't start as QB was against the Bucs.

In 2021, Taysom play in 12 games, as you pointed out. Here are the results in games where he didn't start at QB
-3-2 with JW at QB (it can be argued that the Giants game.....you know what, let me leave that alone)
-0-2 with TS

From 2017 - 2021, Taysom was responsible for:
8 passing TDS
16 Rushing TDS
7 Receiving TDS
(9 starts as QB)

From 2022 until now, Taysom is responsible for:
11 rushing TDs
3 receiving TDs
3 passing TDs

Again, when you peel back the layers, the "Law of Hill" and Taysom being seen as a cornerstone of the offense didn't come about until 2022 and Pete Carmichael.


As @BayouSAINTJoe said

Correlation =/= causation

 

[Artifactual]

Actually, I did bring that up. Taysom never carried more than 7 times once until 2020. Our record: 37-11

In 2020, Taysom carried the ball 7 more times in 6 games and 3 of those were across games that he started as QB. The other 3 game were against the Bucs, 49ers, and Panthers. In the game against but the 49ers and Panthers, we were up 2 scores before Taysom registered his 4th carry. The only game where he rushing was actually significant to the win in the game that he didn't start as QB was against the Bucs.

In 2021, Taysom play in 12 games, as you pointed out. Here are the results in games where he didn't start at QB
-3-2 with JW at QB (it can be argued that the Giants game.....you know what, let me leave that alone)
-0-2 with TS

From 2017 - 2021, Taysom was responsible for:
8 passing TDS
16 Rushing TDS
7 Receiving TDS
(9 starts as QB)

From 2022 until now, Taysom is responsible for:
11 rushing TDs
3 receiving TDs
3 passing TDs

Again, when you peel back the layers, the "Law of Hill" and Taysom being seen as a cornerstone of the offense didn't come about until 2022 and Pete Carmichael.


As @BayouSAINTJoe said

You skew the facts by making a futile attempt to dismiss the results of Hills overall production by not including his rushing numbers as a starting QB in games.
Cherry picking Hills numbers to fit a narrative may look correct in a vacuum but when looking at the totality of Taysoms production they're simply unjust.

Would anyone discuss the effectiveness of Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, or Josh Allen as a rusher without including their rushing numbers from the QB position? I think not. Then consider most of their runs are not by design, rather by default in the passing game where they take off running/scrambling when numbers are to their advantage. Most of Hills runs are from the QB position as designed when the defense is stacking the box expecting it.

Afterall, Hill has attempted most of his rushing attempts lined up in the QB position. Which leads to discussing another lack of imagination from past and present coaching staffs. Taysom has been effective on the few plays in which he has been lined up as a RB, but the play callers ignore using him there more often where he could have the option to run or throw on pitch or sweep plays. The threat of passing would keep the DBs honest, but this is ignored.

You failed to mention another part of "The Law of Hill", being the 40 Yards or More Factor. In those 6 games that Hill rushed 7 times or more in 2021 as a Starting QB or Not, he Also rushed for 40 yards or more in all 6 games. The Saints Won all 6 (100%) of those games. Prior to 2022 Hill had rushed for 40 Yards or more in 9 games from 2017 to 2021 in which the Saints Won 8 and Lost 1. Keep in mind that Hill Didn't get a Single Rushing Attempt in 2017.

It is your contention that Hills production has been ramped up since the beginning of 2022, yet you cite his Total TDs from 2017-2021 at 31 and from 2022 to present at 17. This seems to contradict your claim. Adding to my point of Hills usage, let's keep in mind that TH7 doesn't get to call his own number or enter the game at his own free will. As much as Payton is revered as a genius here, let's remember that he didn't use Hill at all in 2017 and used him sparingly in 2018 and 2019. It took Payton basically 3 years to realize what he had on the sideline and finally found ways to incorporate Hill into the game plan. Can you imagine what Hills overall numbers would be today had he been used more often beginning in 2017. Is it that too hard to fathom?

I don't advocate for Hill to be featured as the cornerstone of the Saints Offense. As of now the 2 players that should be viewed as such are Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave. However, Hill could be used just a bit more in the run game as a complementary weapon and as a one-two punch with AK41.

A Career Rushing Average of 5.4 Yards Per Attempt and a Career Rushing Success Rate of 60.2% are Winning Numbers in the NFL.

For more perspective, Emmitt Smith, the NFL All-Time Leading Rusher had a Career Rushing Average of 4.2 Yards Per Attempt and a Career Rushing Success Rate of 46.2%. Barry Sanders had a Career Rushing Average of 5.0 Yards Per Attempt and a Career Rushing Success Rate of 44.1%. LaDainian Tomlinson had a Career Rushing Average of 4.3 Yards Per Attempt and a Career Rushing Success Rate of 44.4%. Adrian Peterson had a Career Rushing Average of 4.6 Yards Per Attempt and a Career Rushing Success Rate of 44.8%. I could go on.

It doesn't matter whether you're peeling back the layers or stacking them up, "The Law of Hill" is undeniable and phenomenal in its totality.

Maybe it's Causation=/=Correlation
For Sure it's Usage=/=Winning






It's Easier To SEE With Closed Eyes Than It Is To SEE With A Closed Mind. Artifactual 09/29/23