***Tropical Alert*** Hurricane Dorian (Formerly 'OK weather guys' thread) (2 Viewers)

[Saint_Ward]

 

[superchuck500]

Oh now you’re doing it on purpose

 

[Saint_Ward]

Updated. Higher intensity for longer range, moving a bit north.

 

[Saint_Ward]

From the NHC.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and are possible in
portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days.
Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and
Florida later this week and into early next week.

3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with
storm surge, in the Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east
coast have increased. Residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in
place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains
higher than usual due a large spread in model guidance.
storm.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Latest GFS now showing a close brush up against NC, and recurving out to sea.

 

[Saint_Ward]

Latest CMC hasn't really changed much.

 

[Tony1Saintfan]

I started this thread in hopes that the storm wasn’t heading our way. To be honest I was hoping it wouldn’t hit any part of the US. I don’t know why but I was thinking this be one of those that gets sneaky and ruins someone’s day. I really still hope something guides or pulls this thing away. If you or your family are impacted by this storm please be safe and if you are in need of anything let me know. I will do my best to help you.

 

[bclemms]

Everything really coming together for Dorian. When the circulation reformed well north yesterday it was a game changer. It pushed the track away from hispaniola and now it appears it may miss Puerto Rico or just glance TO THE EAST meaning very little land interaction. Also by reforming to the NW it sped the track up putting it in a much better environment for rapid intensification.

 

[FL_Saint]

Well . . . the projected landfall is moving to the north a bit. I guess I will get to try out my new hurricane shutters.

 

[rob22278]

Is this going to cross FL and get in the gulf?

The official track doesn’t seem to be turning up the east coast.

 

[faceman]

Is this going to cross FL and get in the gulf?

The official track doesn’t seem to be turning up the east coast.

It's still too early to tell. We'll know more by the weekend if it will become a GOM threat.

 

[superchuck500]

Well . . . the projected landfall is moving to the north a bit. I guess I will get to try out my new hurricane shutters.

We had to do some air intrusion / leak work a couple of weeks ago after investigating the problem for a month. We had to live in a hotel for a week while we did the work (my wife refuses to live in 'construction zone' as she calls it . . . which simply means drywall dust and some paint).

Having to leave again for a hurricane evac would really suck.

 

[Bill]

It's still too early to tell. We'll know more by the weekend if it will become a GOM threat.

Even the models that move the storm across Florida and into the GOM still show a quick turn to the north and then northeast. As long as there isn't much development in the storms strength, the issues associated with it will likely be isolated.

So far no one is predicting or expecting any rapid intensification of Dorian. And that is good news no matter where it may end up going... as long as it continues to move at a good pace.

 

[superchuck500]

What the hell?

 

[FL_Saint]

What the hell?

That is from Erin sitting off the NC coast.