Week 14 Betting Thread (1 Viewer)

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GT can’t even move the ball 5 yards on offense but get a fluke defensive td smh
 
Adding these games for CFB:

ULM/Ark St under 52.5
Ohio St -10.5
BYU/Az St over 48.5
 
Winston always panicking in the pocket for no reason. Two wide receivers WIDE OPEN on 3rd down and can’t hit either one bc he’s panicking for no reason. Middle of the field had a huge gain that likely results in points
 
nolaswede said:
Oh i never do parlays. They haven’t been good to me in the past.
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Teasers don’t really have any better odds, especially with the common recreational bettor. Not saying that’s anyone here bc most here have good solid knowledge.

Two team parlays by the average bettor hit at 27.7% clip.

Once you get to 4 team parlays it drops to a little over 7%

Serious gamblers that do it for a living would never bet either one of them. They’re both complete sucker bets.

I only will run parlays when I’m up big. Today I ran one bc I wanted plus money, which you would never get with a teaser. I had a really big bet on it on just FAU but then wanted to hit it again when sharp money came in but wanted plus money bc I had a set number I wanted to invest on the game and wouldn’t go past that. Just a discipline thing.

Then I see people crossing zero in teasers which is rule number one of what not to do. Then teasing NFL totals which from a mathematical standpoint doesnt work enough to do it. For example, “There are key numbers to be aware of when betting over/unders, but they don't hit frequently enough for a tease to make any mathematical sense”

Most profitable games to tease in the NFL has always been low scoring games and tease the underdog. It’s the most profitable
 
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BBarnes said:
1-4 ugly start to the week.

4-0 over the last two days. Let’s hope it continues

Browns +4

Browns 1H over 7.5 +115 (just a gut play) 💰

NC State +9

On the Browns, it’s no secret that Tomlin’s teams have been below average at covering games when favored by 3.5 or more. They’ve covered over his career at 3.5 or more favorites only around 44% of the time and on the road the home team getting 3.5 or more against the Steelers during Tomlin’s tenure is covering at 60%.

NC State is bad. When they lost their QB they went to 💩. However, this freshman QB is starting to get better. IF NC State can run the ball, they’ll have a shot at the upset in a big time trap game. If they can’t, they may get blown out. GT has only covered this number in conference play once. Hopefully NC State shows up
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3-0 on the day after the 1H over 7.5

Need to finish strong. Really wish Cleveland woulda got a td there bc then I could have middled by betting Pitt
 
Going to add a live bet.

Seems like the Browns are focused on the boundaries and giving the TE’s some good looks. I worry about it bc Russell Wilson has been just BAD in the red zone this season. However I’m going to take a stab on.

Pat Freiermuth Anytime TD +500
 
BBarnes said:
1-4 ugly start to the week.

4-0 over the last two days. Let’s hope it continues

Browns +4💰

Browns 1H over 7.5 +115 (just a gut play) 💰

NC State +9💰

PF anytime TD +500 Live💩

On the Browns, it’s no secret that Tomlin’s teams have been below average at covering games when favored by 3.5 or more. They’ve covered over his career at 3.5 or more favorites only around 44% of the time and on the road the home team getting 3.5 or more against the Steelers during Tomlin’s tenure is covering at 60%.

NC State is bad. When they lost their QB they went to 💩. However, this freshman QB is starting to get better. IF NC State can run the ball, they’ll have a shot at the upset in a big time trap game. If they can’t, they may get blown out. GT has only covered this number in conference play once. Hopefully NC State shows up
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5-1 today.

7-1 over the last two. Hopefully it’s a sign of the way the weekend will go.
 
Missed my teaser last night by a point on O/U. And I know teasing total points is a bad formula for success lol

NBA
Nets +6.5
Kings -3
Warriors -10.5
 
Noble Saint said:
Missed my teaser last night by a point on O/U. And I know teasing total points is a bad formula for success lol

NBA
Nets +6.5
Kings -3
Warriors -10.5
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Check your messages on FB lol

Sent you something about the $1,000,000 Heater coming up.
 

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