St. PJ
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When I see the Ravens play, wearing purple, I think of Poe's "The Raven". You know, the famous poem about a young scholar who lost his lover "Lenore" and is distraught. A Raven comes into his home and speaks the word "nevermore" over and over as the guy kind of slowly goes crazy while trying to converse with the bird and getting the same answer. The dang birds even look ominous, kind of like a black cat. When you see them in front of you, maybe you get a little apprehension.
Four years ago when we played the Ravens, I was scared. I was scared of their defense, I was scared of how physical they played on both sides of the ball, I was scared of their swagger. They were an intimidating bunch. I wasn't certain the Saints would do well to get hit in the mouth by that kind of team.
This Sunday I have no fear. If you've watched the Ravens at all this season, you saw a team that is going through an identity crisis. They want to build up a lead, pound you with the run, then turn it over to their defense. But in executing their offense, they aren't very good at running the ball. Their offensive line plays very poorly in both the run blocking and pass protection. They are forced to throw more than they want to due to down and distance. And though they have Mason, Boldin, and Houshmanzada-- who've all caught over 500 passes, Joe Flacco hasn't really lit it up the way Drew Brees can (I know because I have Flacco on a few fantasy teams).
Anyways, Flacco hasn't had that game all year where you thought "this is a passing offense, a well oiled machine, who do we cover, ect". And in contrast, the running game hasn't really did much either. It's like the offensive coordinator Cam Cameron is torn between wanting to throw it like he's coaching at San Diego and wanting to run it like he's coaching at Miami; and the head coach wants to just run. They seem to have different agenda's, and can't stick with either one because neither seem to work for an entire game.
Which brings us to Baltimore's defense. While their offense will not win the physical battle, their defense can on any given Sunday. The problem is that this defense has a lot of aging players, and when the offense gets stagnant, the defense wears out very quickly. Their CBs are weak, and they don't get much of a pass rush at times (evident in the 4th quarter the last few weeks, especially last night), and you don't fear all those exotic blitzes; since Rex left, you don't see much of that anyway.
I am very happy the Ravens held on for a win Monday night. The last thing anyone wants is to have a more desperate Ravens team on a two game losing streak fighting to make the playoffs. The win Monday night, the way it transpired, and the fact that it was Monday night are all big positives for the Saints. The Ravens just played two emotionally draining games in a row, looked whipped, and have a short week to prepare for the Saints.
You know the team watched that game. You know Roman Harper is licking his chops thinking about redeeming himself from last week, seeing how succesful the repeated safety blitzes are against the Ravens. You know Drew Brees is looking at that secondary and specifically Dawan Landry and thinking of how he is about to abuse a guy who got very lucky 4 years ago. And you just gotta know Sean Payton going into full guru mode now that he has every offensive starter healthy and up to speed.
Bottom line is that the Ravens have the potential to be what the Saints are going to be Sunday. They have potential to be balanced with multiple weapons in the run and the pass. They have the potential to force turnovers on defense and score on defense. Yet in reality, they are like that Rolex you paid $40. Looks nice from a distance, but lacks quality. In other words, the Ravens aren't untapped potential waiting to click- they're old and bought into a false dream. On paper they look like the best team. Up close they look like a cheap, used imitation. The Saints will be the ones telling the Ravens "Nevermore!"
It is hard to see Baltimore being very successful, though I think Derrick Mason scares me more than any other player on Baltimore's offense, and Ed Reed scares me on their defense. I think Tavares Gooden is their biggest threat as a pass rusher right now. I also think Roman Harper and Darren Sharper have big days. I think we'll even see those CB blitzes we haven't seen in a while. The Ravens are horrible at pass protection when the blitz comes from the perimeter.
I think our offensive line can out physical Baltimore's defensive line. The big men up front don't get intimidated when playing a line like Baltimore's or Minnesota's-- they bring their A game and surprisingly come out on top. So by extension, I think we will be able to run when we want. I think we will have that defense stretched from side to side and vertically. They'll have to defend the whole field, and Payton will keep them so off balance by mixing and matching play calling and personel. Having Ivory, Thomas, and Bush to go along with the WR's and Shockey, Thomas, Graham is a scary thing to contemplate. I think Balitmore will get to Drew once or twice, but I think Drew has a very big day completing deep passes. If Baltimore thinks Pittsburg devestated their psyche, they don't know what's coming.
Saints 41, Baltimore 20 (close at the half)
Stat Time
ypg= yards per game
ypp= yards per play
ypa= yards per pass attempt
ypc= yards per carry
ppg= points per game
ToP= time of possession
TOm= turnover margin
Offense
3. Saints-- 386 ypg, 5.8 ypp, 25.4 ppg, 50% 3rd down, 32:06 ToP, -4 TOm
18. Ravens-- 335 ypg, 5.1 ypp, 22.6 ppg, 40% 3rd down, 31:46 ToP, even TOm
Passing Offense
3. Saints-- 285 ypg, 7.3 ypa, 69% completion, 28 td, 18 int, 40- 20+ yard pass completions, 19 sacks given up, 93.8 qb rating.
14. Ravens-- 230 ypg, 7.5 ypa, 62.8% completion, 21 td, 8 int, 35- 20+ yard pass completions, 32 sacks given up, 94.0 qb rating.
Rushing Offense
21. Ravens- 105 ypg, 3.6 ypc, 9 td, 5 fumbles, 4- 20+ yard runs.
22. Saints- 101 ypg, 4.1 ypc, 8 td, 5 fumbles, 6- 20+ yard runs.
Defense
6. Saints- 308 ypg, 5.1 ypp, 18.5 ppg, 35% 3rd downs converted against
10. Ravens- 320 ypg, 5.1 ypp, 17.6 ppg, 36% 3rd downs converted against
Pass Defense
5. Saints-- 198 ypg, 6.6 ypp, 62.2% passes completed against, 8 td, 9 int, 36- 20+ yard pass plays allowed, 26 sacks, 79.0 qb rating.
14. Ravens-- 221 ypg, 6.4 ypp, 57.3% passes completed against, 17 td, 13 int, 44- 20+ yard pass plays allowed, 24 sacks, 77.0 qb rating.
Wait a minute!!! We have MORE sacks than Baltimore. Who's scared of their defense now?
Rush Defense
8. Ravens- 99 ypg, 4.1 ypc, 5 tds, 8 fumble recoveries, 6- 20+ yard runs allowed
16. Saints-- 110 ypg, 4.3 ypc, 12 tds, 7 fumble recoveries, 8- 20+ yard runs allowed
Pick-Em
Last Week- 9 correct, 7 wrong
Season Total- 128 correct, 80 wrong
Projected Finish-156 correct, 100 wrong.
Best Finish- 170 correct, 86 wrong (2007, downhill ever since.)
This Week's Picks :
San Diego over San Francisco-- The Chargers remind me of Brett Farve. They make things look so very hard, the odds so very long, knowing all along what they're going to do. Just to everyone else, it looks miraculous. The Niners are trying to do their best Charger imitation. I picking San Diego to win big and make Alex Smith cry.
Cincinatti over Cleveland-- Jake Delhomme, you really should just collect a check for being a backup whom teams hope they never have to play. Maybe this way, you can get on a good team and actually look better than Colt McCoy. Anyways, I'm taking the Bengals because the Browns ticked me off more than they did last week.
Dallas over Washington-- Mike Shannahan doesn't look so smart. He needs more talent, especially at the WR position. I really don't like either team, but I don't see how the Skins keep up with Dallas.
Tennessee over Houston-- it's hard to see the Titans continue to lose. It's even harder to see the Texans lose in such close fashion for the 3rd week in a row. But after suffering an emotional loss, having a short week, and having to travel to TN, I pick Houston to lose again. Kerry Collins looked sharp in his loss to the Colts, and the Titans have had a mini-bye since they played last Thursday.
Jacksonville over Indianapolis-- Upset #1. I smelled blood long ago. Now it's time to stick a nail in the coffin. I've always been one to pick the Jags over the Colts in years past. I do so today with great hesitance. It's not that I respect Peyton Manning; I just don't quite trust the Jaguars to step up to the plate and take what's in front of them. If the Jaguars lose this game, I think Del Rio gets fired at the end of the year. If they can't win this division and finish the job (Colts) this year, he deserves it. Now's the time. Do or die.
Kansas City over St. Louis-- Upset #2. I will change this pick if Matt Cassel isn't the starter. Simple as that. Cassel starts, the Cheifs win. He doesn't, go Rams.
Miami over Buffalo-- I can't tell you how badly I want to pick Buffalo every week. I don't care for the Dolphins and really admire the fight Buffalo puts up every Sunday. If Miami played with Buffalo's heart, they'd have a wild card spot. The only reason I am taking Miami is because I have too many upsets picked this week.
NY Giants over Philidelphia-- The Giants layed the blueprint to beating the Eagles. Only they fell short because they were banged up too badly on offense. They have their offensive linemen and WR's back. So Im going with big blue.
Tampa Bay over Detroit-- I like Josh Freeman. I don't like Drew Stanton anymore. End of story.
Carolina over Arizona-- how in the world did the Cardinals put up a 40 burger against Denver last week with a no name 7th round rookie QB? Denver quit, that's how. Carolina doesn't know quit. They get a much deserved win for the effort they've put up in spite of.
New Orleans over Baltimore-- Upset #3. I'm a Saints fan, but even if I weren't, I'd pick it this way.
Seattle over Atlanta-- Upset #4. I'm a Saints fan, but even if I weren't, I'd almost pick this way. I don't see how Seattle can win this game. They have no one to throw to, look pathetic in the running department, and play horrible on defense. But they are much better at home, and Atlanta is on the road for the 3rd week in a row. If Atlanta loses to Seattle and New Orleans, and the Saints win out, they win the division. If Atlanta loses to the Saints and Carolina, and the Saints lose to Baltimore, they can win the division. Those are the only scenarios the Saints can win the division-- the Falcons have to lose 2/3 games, and the Saints have to win either 3/3 or 2/3 depending on who the Falcons lose to.
Oakland over Denver--- The Broncos players already quit for the year. End of story.
Pittsburg over NY Jets-- Ha ha ha ha ha ha. Stick your foot in your mouth fat man. I like confidence, but not to the point of arrogance and cockiness. If you are confident, you know you are good. If you are cocky, you're good and you know it. See the difference? Anyways, while I don't like think the Steelers are Superbowl contenders and hate to see them win, I'll pick them because I like to see all the preseason hoopla blow up in the Jets' face.
New England over Green Bay-- this is probably one of those games where everyone thinks the Patriots are going to win and the Packers surprise us. But in pickem, I just can't make that call with all the other upsets I've already picked. I hate seeing Tom Brady play so well, though I really like Bill.
Chicago over Minnesota-- Upset #5. I don't know how Chicago is the underdog in this game. I know the Bears looked horrible agaisnt the Patriots, but Minnesota looks worse almost every week. Brett Favre will probably go on IR and be done for good. No point in playing anymore. And Tarvaris Jackson looks worse than just about everyone else. The Vikings season is over, and the players know it, and it shows in their play. Chicago big, 31 to 16.
Four years ago when we played the Ravens, I was scared. I was scared of their defense, I was scared of how physical they played on both sides of the ball, I was scared of their swagger. They were an intimidating bunch. I wasn't certain the Saints would do well to get hit in the mouth by that kind of team.
This Sunday I have no fear. If you've watched the Ravens at all this season, you saw a team that is going through an identity crisis. They want to build up a lead, pound you with the run, then turn it over to their defense. But in executing their offense, they aren't very good at running the ball. Their offensive line plays very poorly in both the run blocking and pass protection. They are forced to throw more than they want to due to down and distance. And though they have Mason, Boldin, and Houshmanzada-- who've all caught over 500 passes, Joe Flacco hasn't really lit it up the way Drew Brees can (I know because I have Flacco on a few fantasy teams).
Anyways, Flacco hasn't had that game all year where you thought "this is a passing offense, a well oiled machine, who do we cover, ect". And in contrast, the running game hasn't really did much either. It's like the offensive coordinator Cam Cameron is torn between wanting to throw it like he's coaching at San Diego and wanting to run it like he's coaching at Miami; and the head coach wants to just run. They seem to have different agenda's, and can't stick with either one because neither seem to work for an entire game.
Which brings us to Baltimore's defense. While their offense will not win the physical battle, their defense can on any given Sunday. The problem is that this defense has a lot of aging players, and when the offense gets stagnant, the defense wears out very quickly. Their CBs are weak, and they don't get much of a pass rush at times (evident in the 4th quarter the last few weeks, especially last night), and you don't fear all those exotic blitzes; since Rex left, you don't see much of that anyway.
I am very happy the Ravens held on for a win Monday night. The last thing anyone wants is to have a more desperate Ravens team on a two game losing streak fighting to make the playoffs. The win Monday night, the way it transpired, and the fact that it was Monday night are all big positives for the Saints. The Ravens just played two emotionally draining games in a row, looked whipped, and have a short week to prepare for the Saints.
You know the team watched that game. You know Roman Harper is licking his chops thinking about redeeming himself from last week, seeing how succesful the repeated safety blitzes are against the Ravens. You know Drew Brees is looking at that secondary and specifically Dawan Landry and thinking of how he is about to abuse a guy who got very lucky 4 years ago. And you just gotta know Sean Payton going into full guru mode now that he has every offensive starter healthy and up to speed.
Bottom line is that the Ravens have the potential to be what the Saints are going to be Sunday. They have potential to be balanced with multiple weapons in the run and the pass. They have the potential to force turnovers on defense and score on defense. Yet in reality, they are like that Rolex you paid $40. Looks nice from a distance, but lacks quality. In other words, the Ravens aren't untapped potential waiting to click- they're old and bought into a false dream. On paper they look like the best team. Up close they look like a cheap, used imitation. The Saints will be the ones telling the Ravens "Nevermore!"
It is hard to see Baltimore being very successful, though I think Derrick Mason scares me more than any other player on Baltimore's offense, and Ed Reed scares me on their defense. I think Tavares Gooden is their biggest threat as a pass rusher right now. I also think Roman Harper and Darren Sharper have big days. I think we'll even see those CB blitzes we haven't seen in a while. The Ravens are horrible at pass protection when the blitz comes from the perimeter.
I think our offensive line can out physical Baltimore's defensive line. The big men up front don't get intimidated when playing a line like Baltimore's or Minnesota's-- they bring their A game and surprisingly come out on top. So by extension, I think we will be able to run when we want. I think we will have that defense stretched from side to side and vertically. They'll have to defend the whole field, and Payton will keep them so off balance by mixing and matching play calling and personel. Having Ivory, Thomas, and Bush to go along with the WR's and Shockey, Thomas, Graham is a scary thing to contemplate. I think Balitmore will get to Drew once or twice, but I think Drew has a very big day completing deep passes. If Baltimore thinks Pittsburg devestated their psyche, they don't know what's coming.
Saints 41, Baltimore 20 (close at the half)
Stat Time
ypg= yards per game
ypp= yards per play
ypa= yards per pass attempt
ypc= yards per carry
ppg= points per game
ToP= time of possession
TOm= turnover margin
Offense
3. Saints-- 386 ypg, 5.8 ypp, 25.4 ppg, 50% 3rd down, 32:06 ToP, -4 TOm
18. Ravens-- 335 ypg, 5.1 ypp, 22.6 ppg, 40% 3rd down, 31:46 ToP, even TOm
Passing Offense
3. Saints-- 285 ypg, 7.3 ypa, 69% completion, 28 td, 18 int, 40- 20+ yard pass completions, 19 sacks given up, 93.8 qb rating.
14. Ravens-- 230 ypg, 7.5 ypa, 62.8% completion, 21 td, 8 int, 35- 20+ yard pass completions, 32 sacks given up, 94.0 qb rating.
Rushing Offense
21. Ravens- 105 ypg, 3.6 ypc, 9 td, 5 fumbles, 4- 20+ yard runs.
22. Saints- 101 ypg, 4.1 ypc, 8 td, 5 fumbles, 6- 20+ yard runs.
Defense
6. Saints- 308 ypg, 5.1 ypp, 18.5 ppg, 35% 3rd downs converted against
10. Ravens- 320 ypg, 5.1 ypp, 17.6 ppg, 36% 3rd downs converted against
Pass Defense
5. Saints-- 198 ypg, 6.6 ypp, 62.2% passes completed against, 8 td, 9 int, 36- 20+ yard pass plays allowed, 26 sacks, 79.0 qb rating.
14. Ravens-- 221 ypg, 6.4 ypp, 57.3% passes completed against, 17 td, 13 int, 44- 20+ yard pass plays allowed, 24 sacks, 77.0 qb rating.
Wait a minute!!! We have MORE sacks than Baltimore. Who's scared of their defense now?
Rush Defense
8. Ravens- 99 ypg, 4.1 ypc, 5 tds, 8 fumble recoveries, 6- 20+ yard runs allowed
16. Saints-- 110 ypg, 4.3 ypc, 12 tds, 7 fumble recoveries, 8- 20+ yard runs allowed
Pick-Em
Last Week- 9 correct, 7 wrong
Season Total- 128 correct, 80 wrong
Projected Finish-156 correct, 100 wrong.
Best Finish- 170 correct, 86 wrong (2007, downhill ever since.)
This Week's Picks :
San Diego over San Francisco-- The Chargers remind me of Brett Farve. They make things look so very hard, the odds so very long, knowing all along what they're going to do. Just to everyone else, it looks miraculous. The Niners are trying to do their best Charger imitation. I picking San Diego to win big and make Alex Smith cry.
Cincinatti over Cleveland-- Jake Delhomme, you really should just collect a check for being a backup whom teams hope they never have to play. Maybe this way, you can get on a good team and actually look better than Colt McCoy. Anyways, I'm taking the Bengals because the Browns ticked me off more than they did last week.
Dallas over Washington-- Mike Shannahan doesn't look so smart. He needs more talent, especially at the WR position. I really don't like either team, but I don't see how the Skins keep up with Dallas.
Tennessee over Houston-- it's hard to see the Titans continue to lose. It's even harder to see the Texans lose in such close fashion for the 3rd week in a row. But after suffering an emotional loss, having a short week, and having to travel to TN, I pick Houston to lose again. Kerry Collins looked sharp in his loss to the Colts, and the Titans have had a mini-bye since they played last Thursday.
Jacksonville over Indianapolis-- Upset #1. I smelled blood long ago. Now it's time to stick a nail in the coffin. I've always been one to pick the Jags over the Colts in years past. I do so today with great hesitance. It's not that I respect Peyton Manning; I just don't quite trust the Jaguars to step up to the plate and take what's in front of them. If the Jaguars lose this game, I think Del Rio gets fired at the end of the year. If they can't win this division and finish the job (Colts) this year, he deserves it. Now's the time. Do or die.
Kansas City over St. Louis-- Upset #2. I will change this pick if Matt Cassel isn't the starter. Simple as that. Cassel starts, the Cheifs win. He doesn't, go Rams.
Miami over Buffalo-- I can't tell you how badly I want to pick Buffalo every week. I don't care for the Dolphins and really admire the fight Buffalo puts up every Sunday. If Miami played with Buffalo's heart, they'd have a wild card spot. The only reason I am taking Miami is because I have too many upsets picked this week.
NY Giants over Philidelphia-- The Giants layed the blueprint to beating the Eagles. Only they fell short because they were banged up too badly on offense. They have their offensive linemen and WR's back. So Im going with big blue.
Tampa Bay over Detroit-- I like Josh Freeman. I don't like Drew Stanton anymore. End of story.
Carolina over Arizona-- how in the world did the Cardinals put up a 40 burger against Denver last week with a no name 7th round rookie QB? Denver quit, that's how. Carolina doesn't know quit. They get a much deserved win for the effort they've put up in spite of.
New Orleans over Baltimore-- Upset #3. I'm a Saints fan, but even if I weren't, I'd pick it this way.
Seattle over Atlanta-- Upset #4. I'm a Saints fan, but even if I weren't, I'd almost pick this way. I don't see how Seattle can win this game. They have no one to throw to, look pathetic in the running department, and play horrible on defense. But they are much better at home, and Atlanta is on the road for the 3rd week in a row. If Atlanta loses to Seattle and New Orleans, and the Saints win out, they win the division. If Atlanta loses to the Saints and Carolina, and the Saints lose to Baltimore, they can win the division. Those are the only scenarios the Saints can win the division-- the Falcons have to lose 2/3 games, and the Saints have to win either 3/3 or 2/3 depending on who the Falcons lose to.
Oakland over Denver--- The Broncos players already quit for the year. End of story.
Pittsburg over NY Jets-- Ha ha ha ha ha ha. Stick your foot in your mouth fat man. I like confidence, but not to the point of arrogance and cockiness. If you are confident, you know you are good. If you are cocky, you're good and you know it. See the difference? Anyways, while I don't like think the Steelers are Superbowl contenders and hate to see them win, I'll pick them because I like to see all the preseason hoopla blow up in the Jets' face.
New England over Green Bay-- this is probably one of those games where everyone thinks the Patriots are going to win and the Packers surprise us. But in pickem, I just can't make that call with all the other upsets I've already picked. I hate seeing Tom Brady play so well, though I really like Bill.
Chicago over Minnesota-- Upset #5. I don't know how Chicago is the underdog in this game. I know the Bears looked horrible agaisnt the Patriots, but Minnesota looks worse almost every week. Brett Favre will probably go on IR and be done for good. No point in playing anymore. And Tarvaris Jackson looks worse than just about everyone else. The Vikings season is over, and the players know it, and it shows in their play. Chicago big, 31 to 16.
