Analysis Week 4 AMA: Saints/Falcons Postgame (Ask Me Anything) (1 Viewer)

[Boy_of_wonder75]

I think it's a few things - one being that teams genuinely are running and operating out of play-action/max protect more, particularly on early downs, and defenses are kinda falling into that ebb and flow (not firing out of the blocks as hard on 1st/2nd down).

Third down bothers me more. I always appreciated the way DA schemed for pressure generation, but this year--so far--it seems to be far less pressure scheming and more coverage scheming. I think I saw 2, MAYBE 3, pressures in the first half (5 or more defenders rushing the QB). One was Tyrann Mathieu on a delayed blitz and the other was Pete Werner. There was very going on with the DL, pass rush game-wise, and in general guys just aren't challenging the opposing OLs schematically or technically.

This could be due to a change in philosophy. Focusing on limiting big plays vs. being aggressive and getting after the QB. The 3rd down stuff is by far the most frustrating.

It seems we're having more success getting to the QB in the red zone, which would lend credence to your theory here. Perhaps we're focusing on the "bend, don't break" style of defense, counting on the offense's ability to score touchdowns.

 

[Elvis]

Thoughts on the defense at the end of the last two games? Is it execution or play call / scheme that is to blame for giving up scores at the end of close games?

 

[TCUDan]

Brother I hope you and the family are healthy and well. My question is at the TE position Why do you think the TEs Juwan Johnson or Foster Moreau havent been featured at points in the passing game?

The short answer is they're being used a lot in protection. Chipping or straight up staying in on 6 and 7-man pro. When they are out on some of those 11-pers looks it's really matchup/spacing reads, and that is almost always going to take Carr to Shahid, Olave, or Kamara.

The other answer is the same one I gave earlier about there not bing a lot of 3rd WR catches. It's all about opportunities. if the Saints are running the ball 60-65%, going play action 10%, max protecting and/or chipping w/ the TE another 10-15%... there's just not gonna be a lot of opportunities for TE targets.

 

[TCUDan]

Good morning! Where are the players mentally right now? Coming off of two big wins and suffering two heartbreaking losses is a roller coaster of emotions. Not to mention injuries.

How are the players physically, emotionally and mentally?

I'd say they're frustrated. Against the Eagles that was a really poorly managed game, with points left on the field in a situation where yards and points were already hard to come by. This game--the Falcons score 26 points with 0 offensive TDs.

That's frustrating. It's easy to win when everything is clicking and you're scoring 40+. But these close games, the ones that come down to a red zone decision, a turnover, a P.I. call... those are really frustrating.

It's early in the season, but it is disheartening to see what feels like some old mistakes resurfacing. The coaches have to have answers and the team has to believe in them. The Saints have lost by less than a TD (5 points) in the last 2 games combined. That is incredibly frustrating.

 

[TCUDan]

How concerned are you regarding our #3 WR position?

After Shaheed and Olave all of our other WRs have caught a total of 5 passes for 26 yards.

A lot of this goes back to opportunities. The Saints went a little more 11 personnel this game but Tipton still isn't getting many targets, nor are the TEs. I'd love to see some more stuff schemed toward him, but the lack of a 3rd WR contribution isn't the biggest issue w/ the offense.

We're just used to nearly 20 years of the Payton/Carmichael system, which involved a lot of lighter personnel looks, a lot of rotation, and a lot more spreading the ball around. That's not the DNA of this offense.

I'd like to see more stuff schemed for Tipton, but those screens and end arounds, etc.--that's going to Shaheed right now. Ultimately I doubt we'll see much contribution from a 3rd WR unless there are some injuries.

TE is a different story.

 

[Rexman100]

I wouldn't totally agree with this assessment. I know Shaheed didn't reel in some really difficult 50/50 balls against the Eagles, but last game he had 8 catches, and all were short or intermediate throws and 3 or 4 were really low balls that he trapped and kept off the turf. He also made a terrific 1 handed grab in the end zone but the pass was too high for him to be able to get his feet down.

He's not the complete route runner that Olave is but I think it's a complete misnomer that he's nothing but a deep ball threat. He runs pretty crisp underneath routes and he plucks the ball pretty effortlessly and is able to reel in low balls and contort his body at different angles. A large part of the 0 catches in the Eagles game was just how he was used, but for an UDFA in his 3rd year, I think he's doing pretty well and is a legit #2 WR.

Of course there is still plenty of room to improve (I won't even get into that bonehead muffed punt... what an uncharacteristically stupid and costly play). As for AT Perry, my guess is he hasn't earned a larger role, and Mason Tipton getting the most #3 snaps tell me that he's who the coaches have confidence in. I'd like for them to scheme for him a little more but right now a lot of those screens and end arounds are all going to Shahid, for obvious reasons.

Last but not least: opportunities. Through the first 4 weeks the Saints are well over 60% run. If it seems like there aren't enough balls to go around--it's simply b/c there aren't. More opportunities in the passing game will mean more catches for everyone.

Hey TCU Dan, we know that the offensive scheme is supposed to always keep the defense honest. (Everything looking the same). But like you pointed out, the run pass ratio is also trending to be a guessing game for the d. So we run against stacked boxes, from time to time, do you think those runs are just to keep the run/pass ratio unpredictable? (I wonder when I see some of them, thinking that was a throw away run). Just curious. Thanks

 

[Plow]

Hey everyone, I'm working on an article about where the Saints are 4-games into the season, but in the interim I'm here to answer your questions. So fire away!

There seems to be a belief that the Saints should have run more time off the clock prior to getting the go-ahead score. My feeling is they needed to put the points on the board asap vice getting cute (and blowing it) and leave it to the Defense to preserve the win. What are your thoughts on the strategy behind the Saints' last offensive possession?

 

[St. Widge]

I think it's a few things - one being that teams genuinely are running and operating out of play-action/max protect more, particularly on early downs, and defenses are kinda falling into that ebb and flow (not firing out of the blocks as hard on 1st/2nd down).

Third down bothers me more. I always appreciated the way DA schemed for pressure generation, but this year--so far--it seems to be far less pressure scheming and more coverage scheming. I think I saw 2, MAYBE 3, pressures in the first half (5 or more defenders rushing the QB). One was Tyrann Mathieu on a delayed blitz and the other was Pete Werner. There was very going on with the DL, pass rush game-wise, and in general guys just aren't challenging the opposing OLs schematically or technically.

This could be due to a change in philosophy. Focusing on limiting big plays vs. being aggressive and getting after the QB. The 3rd down stuff is by far the most frustrating.

As a follow up to the DA's play calling question, do you have a problem with the play calls he made in the last 2 minutes against Philly and in the last minute against Atlanta? Particularly on the long Goedert gain against Philly and the play with the PI on Adebo, some are arguing they were terrible calls because you should always play soft zone coverage in those situations.

While I get that those are the typical safe calls and it's risky to play man underneath or even Cover 3 match zone (which may have been the call against Atlanta), that given that the Saints defense is typically aggressive, I think it's okay to occasionally go man even in those situations and that the problem were more with executions (players running into each other against Philly and Adebo panicking and committing PI against Atlanta). It seems to me that asking a group of aggressive DBs to suddenly play soft zone is a recipe to give up a big play in zone. Especially with Tyrann Mathieu out of the game.

What are your thoughts? Is there no room to play man and is it insane to play man instead of soft zone in those end game situations?

 

[TCUDan]

How much blame for the last 2 losses should be attributed to Derek Carr? Dennis Allen's playcalling?

Derek Carr--not much. I think he's done what he's been asked to do and even mounted a good 2 minute drive last game.

I like to give coaches the benefit of the doubt (for obvious reasons), and I am not of the "DA is garbage" camp by any means... but his game management these past 2 games has been very lacking. Not kicking field goals in the red zone proved to be the difference against the Eagles--who, by the way, arguably managed the game more poorly than the Saints, but the Saints didn't capitalize on those errors.

Against the Falcons--listen, that Shaheed play was inexcusable and a backbreaker and frankly out of character for him. I doubt it'll happen again. The Carr int.--well, that was just a great play by the defense. On the 2nd to last possession I'd have kicked the field goal but I get where DA's head was at.

Paulson Adebo also played really poor situational football (on multiple snaps). Forgot his technique at the worst possible moments and that P.I. is up there with the other f-ups.

In short: 1) Carr is most definitely not blame, 2) the OL is a big issue, 3) third down defense is also a problem (lump this in with Allen's play-calling) 4) Game-management.

Kubiak's play-calling I thought was an issue against the Eagles. It was very stubborn and rigid until it was too late. This game--I loved the lighter, spread looks to start (I pointed to the need for it in my last article). But once Taysom Hill is out, the offense loses a lot of juice.

 

[Rouxble]

It's such a frustrating situation. Hill has always been somewhat injury prone, but he deserves/the team needs him to have his expanded role. I said in my last article that he is one of--if not THE--most important player on the offense, right up there with Kamara and Olave. While there was rightly a lot of angst about Erik McCoy going down, losing Hill is like losing a starter at 3 different positions and the one player who really changes the way defenses gameplan.

It's like facing a team with a Mike Vick or a Lamar Jackson--only this player isn't your QB...

... most of the time.

It's not just what Hill does, it's what he CAN do. When he's on the field you can't ID if the Saints are in 11, 12, or 21 personnel, b/c it's all and none of those things. We saw this on the first drive with Kubiak getting away from the compressed sets (FINALLY... maybe he read my last article?) and right away Hill was split out to the numbers, and he wasn't matched up on a LB. They kept the CB on him, which means Olave was on a LB, and it allowed him to catch the ball underneath and run for a first down after the catch.

The Saints also keep teams out of those heavy/okie fronts that the Eagles dominated us with. And still Hill blocks like a FB/TE, runs the ball like a RB, catches like a WR, and can throw it like a QB.

So yeah... losing him is huge and I think it's gonna be an issue throughout the season. You could obviously rotate him more or put him in fewer in-line blocking situations where can get caught under a pile of bodies. Without him... you're playing base football, and you're just gonna have to rotate players in (a FB is now a FB, a TE is a TE, etc.) and play without that extra edge.

It's no coincidence (and correct me if I'm wrong)--the Saints have scored points on every drive that Hill has been on the field. And without him--as we saw Sunday and the week before, this team has been a low-output offense.

The participation data has been harder to come by this year, but at least we know he was active and available the first two games and the first two quarters of week four.

Ten quarters with Taysom Hill - 105 points (10.5/quarter)
Six quarters without Hill - 22 points (3.7/quarter)

And I also had the thought that Kubiak was doing some light reading on the SSF when we started to spread out more early.

 

[TCUDan]

Thoughts on the defense at the end of the last two games? Is it execution or play call / scheme that is to blame for giving up scores at the end of close games?

A lot of it's mentality. Great teams have very good situational focus. Game is on the line, you lock in and take it to 110 on every single snap until the final whistle blows.

The Saints haven't done that. Last week it was Howden, triggering early and trying to cheat and make a play on the ball and creating a cluster-f. This week it was Adebo--completely getting out of his technique and it resulted in a costly P.I.

Some of that might have to do with identity. The defense seems very risk-averse at times, and perhaps by the end of the game players are pressing and trying to make THE PLAY (like an INT. to win the game).

I can tell you right now--playing DB is HARD in 2 minute situations. The offense isn't huddling so you're much more limited in communication, disguising, changing plays. It's really just line up and play ball. It's also when the offense can come out with all of its back-breakers like double moves and mesh concepts and other man-beaters. So you have to be extremely locked-in and disciplined with your eyes, hands, and feet.

It IS NOT the time to try and force a play.

 

[TCUDan]

My only issue with shaheed is that he’s not a contested catch receiver. He’s money if he’s open. But if he has to act like a normal WR, then he’s not the guy, and doesn’t look like he ever will be. Kinda like Darren Sproles. Throw Sproles a jump ball in the endzone, it’s not happening. Even Lance Moore, diminutive in size, still had some elite hands vs contested balls and deflections etc. But neither Sproles or Moore could take the top off the defense, so there’s that.

I don't agree with this, to be honest. The sample size needs to be larger, but he made some contested catches last year and the year before. In the Eagles game, yes, a dawg 50/50 ball guy gets that first underthrown ball to the end zone, but that was by no means an easy grab.

He had an fantastic one-handed catch in the end zone this week, just the ball was too high to get his feet down.

Whether or not that particular aspect becomes part of Shaheed's game is somewhat irrelevant--he brings more than enough in terms of deep ball and run after the catch ability to carve out an important role. But everyone writing off his ability to compete for the ball I think is operating off of recency bias.

 

[TCUDan]

There seems to be a belief that the Saints should have run more time off the clock prior to getting the go-ahead score. My feeling is they needed to put the points on the board asap vice getting cute (and blowing it) and leave it to the Defense to preserve the win. What are your thoughts on the strategy behind the Saints' last offensive possession?

I have no real issue with their last possession. If I were going to second guess somewhere, it would be the 2nd to last possession where they didn't kick the field goal. But again... I understand where DA's head was at and I'm not as upset about that situation as I was about the 2 FG opportunities in the Eagles' game that they ignored.

The last drive--you're right, your objective is to score. Not to "well let's not score until it's 4th down so we can chew clock." 1 minute and no timeouts--the defense needs to step up and not commit PI.

 

[TCUDan]

As a follow up to the DA's play calling question, do you have a problem with the play calls he made in the last 2 minutes against Philly and in the last minute against Atlanta? Particularly on the long Goedert gain against Philly and the play with the PI on Adebo, some are arguing they were terrible calls because you should always play soft zone coverage in those situations.

While I get that those are the typical safe calls and it's risky to play man underneath or even Cover 3 match zone (which may have been the call against Atlanta), that given that the Saints defense is typically aggressive, I think it's okay to occasionally go man even in those situations and that the problem were more with executions (players running into each other against Philly and Adebo panicking and committing PI against Atlanta). It seems to me that asking a group of aggressive DBs to suddenly play soft zone is a recipe to give up a big play in zone. Especially with Tyrann Mathieu out of the game.

What are your thoughts? Is there no room to play man and is it insane to play man instead of soft zone in those end game situations?

From what I remember they were actually mixing it up on that drive between off and press or zone and man/match-zone. This is one of those situations where no matter which way you go, fans will be happy if it works and mad if it doesn't. Soft zone in that situation--if the Saints lose then every fan would be all "wHy wErE tHeY iN pReVeNt!" So I don't have a huge issue with the play-calling. I have an issue with Adebo getting out of his technique.

 

[Rexman100]

Whether or not that particular aspect becomes part of Shaheed's game is somewhat irrelevant

I don't agree with this, to be honest. The sample size needs to be larger, but he made some contested catches last year and the year before. In the Eagles game, yes, a dawg 50/50 ball guy gets that first underthrown ball to the end zone, but that was by no means an easy grab.

He had an fantastic one-handed catch in the end zone this week, just the ball was too high to get his feet down.

Whether or not that particular aspect becomes part of Shaheed's game is somewhat irrelevant--he brings more than enough in terms of deep ball and run after the catch ability to carve out an important role. But everyone writing off his ability to compete for the ball I think is operating off of recency bias.

Great pooint you make, "Whether or not that particular aspect becomes part of Shaheed's game is somewhat irrelevant--"
Can he be schemed where we arent throwing him contested balls? (considering were throwing at 48%, thats quite a few snaps that we wish we had back) Could it be that Klint is still learning Shaheed? or could Shaheed improve in that aspect? To me, It really seems we're trying to force a round peg at this point. (for the record i love Shaheed and we're beyond lucky to have him considering he's an UDFA etc)