2024 Tropical Weather Thread (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

The 4AM NHC update had peak winds at 145mph and now the 7AM has them at 155mph. With the storm already at 150mph and a lot of warm water and low shear left to go, I'd have to think they're going to revise it upward again. One thing we are seeing with these Gulf storms is that NHC intensity forecasting almost always plays out to be conservative.

And yep, the 10AM has peak winds now hitting 165mph. That’s a 20mph upward revision of forecasted peak winds in just two update cycles.

 

[Eeyore]

A kid in my department was on vacation in Southeast Tennessee last week. He didn't come back to work this weekend and doesn't answer the phone. I'm hoping that he wasn't mixed up in that mess. If he was, I'm hoping that he's ok but stuck and doesn't have cell service.

 

[superchuck500]

A kid in my department was on vacation in Southeast Tennessee last week. He didn't come back to work this weekend and doesn't answer the phone. I'm hoping that he wasn't mixed up in that mess. If he was, I'm hoping that he's ok but stuck and doesn't have cell service.

Hoping as well. Do you know the location? True SE TN didn’t get nearly as bad, I don’t think. The bad problems were further north - TN border takes that big slant there.

 

[efil4stnias]

That really is the problem with all these storms so close together. Not only are there the normal dangers of being on the road, gridlock traffic of evacuation, difficulty of evacuating with pets, and the cost of evacuating, but large areas above Florida were hit by Helene and likely have few rooms and what they do have are in part taken up with people who fled Helene and can't get back.

It's a particular problem in Florida with a large population trying to go north on I-75 since it's really the only reasonable way to go north in Florida. That's a crazy busy Interstate even in normal times.

And then there is the problem that these storms are becoming so frequent that businesses are very hesitant to close, or close at the last minute, so people end up having to choose between evacuating and their job. Most have no choice but to chose the job so they end up stuck and hunkering down even for dangerous storms.

They own a business in Sarasota- closed all week to allow employees to prepare/evacuate if need be.

The main reason is staying for parent ( singular ) with health condition and animals - that makes traveling that much harder. And Florida has a large community of retirees that may also have health complications that dont give them the freedom to just pull up and go for a week without much preparation

 

[superchuck500]

11AM update - winds now at 160mph, pressure at 925mb.

 

[efil4stnias]

11AM update - winds now at 160mph, pressure at 925mb.

I wonder if its interaction with the Yucutan will hinder it somewhat? Enough to maybe cause some disturbance- enough to knock it down a peg or two and being that it wont have much more time over water, keep it in the 2/3 category?

wishful thinking i guess...idk.

damn.

 

[Merl]

Hoping as well. Do you know the location? True SE TN didn’t get nearly as bad, I don’t think. The bad problems were further north - TN border takes that big slant there.

I drove through Chattanooga (started North of Bristol) and basically no damage. Just a warning that 40E north of Knoxville was closed for a bridge out and later a few highway signs blown over.

 

[St. Widge]

They own a business in Sarasota- closed all week to allow employees to prepare/evacuate if need be.

The main reason is staying for parent ( singular ) with health condition and animals - that makes traveling that much harder. And Florida has a large community of retirees that may also have health complications that dont give them the freedom to just pull up and go for a week without much preparation

Good on them for closing for their employees. Fewer and fewer businesses are doing that. Especially for that long. For Francine my wife and daughter had to do all the prep work like getting food, batteries, and picking up the yard. My office never actually closed for that storm. I guess I could have left the office to do it, but that just didn't seem right when our staff had no choice but to stay.

I had the issue with evacuating with an elderly person. My mom passed last year at age 87, but she lived with us for many years prior to passing and her lack of mobility was aways a consideration for us evacuating or not. It was hard to get her in a car much less for her to ride long hours in a car and then get in and out of a hotel. Plus we had 2 dogs and 2 cats which made things even more difficult to even find a place that would take us. One of the dogs even passed while riding in the car evacuating after Ida. We think the heat got to her and he heart gave out. We are now down to just the cats but it's still difficult with them since not all hotels will take pets.

And we are lucky enough that we can afford to evacuate and have transportation. For many people the cost is just too high and they don't have reliable transportation. And it gets worse when it's several times in one year.

I'm honestly very concerned about what will happen if I ever get to retire. Trying to afford evacuation on a fixed income can't be easy.

 

[efil4stnias]

I'm honestly very concerned about what will happen if I ever get to retire. Trying to afford evacuation on a fixed income can't be easy.

im out. Most likely Colorado.

of course, thats if i get to retire lol

 

[Eeyore]

Hoping as well. Do you know the location? True SE TN didn’t get nearly as bad, I don’t think. The bad problems were further north - TN border takes that big slant there.

I don't. I just know that he was going out that way and was going to spend time in the mountains.

 

[HoustonGold]

Have you seen that thing on radar? It looks like two eyes are forming. Almost like it has a twin . I don’t see any green just lots of dark stuff. This is going to get ugly .

 

[HoustonGold]

Be careful out there B.Clemms

 

[Bill]

Have you seen that thing on radar? It looks like two eyes are forming. Almost like it has a twin . I don’t see any green just lots of dark stuff. This is going to get ugly .

The storm won't remain this intense all the way to the Florida coast. It will be entering some less favorable conditions for strengthening including wind shear. But the big question is how much intensity will remain by the time it approaches land. A Cat2? Cat3? Cat4? There's a huge difference between a 110 mph hurricane and a 130 mph hurricane. We need to hope that it will poop itself out by the time it starts affecting the coastline.

 

[SaintRob]

Recon is describing "flocks of birds in the eye". I don't think I've ever heard that before.