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I was going to wait a while before posting this...but I figured to post it now because I think that we all could use a little bit of optimism. And believe it or not...there is some optimism looking at the next few seasons. I do this on a yearly basis, and there are typically a ton of holes to fill. This is the most filled out our roster has been since I've been doing this the past five season.
Here’s a look ahead to the 2020 and 2021 Saints’ rosters. I always like looking two years ahead because it typically takes a few years for players to develop. For that reason, I like to try to fill out the roster with that in mind. I'll be updating this as the offseason moves forward.
Overall, 2020 is looking pretty good. We will have lots of work to do between now and the 2021 season, but the good thing is that we have time. We really don’t have many BAD contracts for either season, which is very refreshing. Loomis has done a masterful job of balancing the budget, though that has definitely been assisted with our hit rate through both the draft and free agency as of late.
2020 season
QB #1- Drew Brees ($25m, $25m, 0) - through 2020 (has a voided 2021)
QB #2- Taysom Hill (details pending) - through 2021
QB #3- Jameis Winston (details pending) - through 2020
WR #1- Michael Thomas ($7m, $27m, -$20m) – through 2024
WR #2- Emmanuel Sanders ($4m, $6m, -$2m) - through 2021
WR #3- Deonte Harris ($588k, $6k, +$582k) – through 2021
WR #4- Tre’Quan Smith ($912k, $408k, +$500k) - through 2021
WR #5- [open]
RB #1- Alvin Kamara ($1.2m, $243k, +$900k) - through 2020
RB #2- Latavius Murray ($4m, $5.3, -$1.3m) – through 2022
RB #3- [open]
FB- Michael Burton ($887k, $748k, +$139k) - through 2020
TE #1- Jared Cook ($9m, $4m, +$5m) – through 2020
TE #2- Josh Hill ($2.8m, $1.75m, +$1.9m) – through 2021
TE #3- Adam Tautman (details pending)- through 2023
LT- Terron Armstead ($8.7m, $16.9m, -$8.2m) – through 2021
LG- Andrus Peat ($3.6m, $23m, -$19.4m) - through 2024
C- Caesar Ruiz (details pending) -through 2024
RG- Erik McCoy ($1.3m, $2.6m, -$1.3m) – up 2022
RT- Ryan Ramczyk ($2.8m, $1.5m, +$1.3m) – through 2021
OT #3- [open]
OC/OG- Will Clapp ($768k, $18k, +$750k)- through 2021
DE #1- Cameron Jordan ($15.9m, $14.1m, +$1.8m) – through 2023
DE #2- Marcus Davenport ($3.7m, $8.1m, -$4.4m) – through 2022
DE #3- Trey Hendrickson ($935k, $176k, +$700k) – through 2020
DE #4- Carl Granderson ($590k, $10k, +$580k) – through 2021
DT #1- David Onyemata ($3.5m, $10m, -$6.5m) - through 2022
DT #2- Sheldon Rankins ($7.6m, 0, +$7.6m) - through 2020 (fifth year option picked up)
DT #3- Malcolm Brown ($6m, $3m, +$3m) – through 2020
DT #4- Shy Tuttle ($586k, $3k, +$585k) – through 2021
DE/DT- Mario Edwards ($3.2m, $475k, +$2.7m) – through 2020
LB #1- Demario Davis ($9.9m, $4.6m, +$5.3m) – through 2020
LB #2- Kiko Alonso ($4m, $2.3m, +$1.7m)
LB #3- Alex Anzalone ($1m, $216k, +$800k) – through 2020
LB #4- Zach Baun (details pending) - through 2023
LB #5- Kaden Elliss ($600k, $50k, +$550k) – through 2022
CB #1- Marshon Lattimore ($4.8m, $4.8m, 0) – through 2021
CB #2- Janoris Jenkins ($11.2m, 0, +$11.2m) – through 2020
CB #3- Chauncey Gardner-Johnson ($781k, $588k, +$200k) – through 2022
CB #4- Patrick Robinson ($3.2m, $2.5m, -$700k) - through 2021
CB #5- Justin Hardee ($1.5m, $365k, +$1.1m) - through 2020
FS- Marcus Williams ($1.9m, $669k, +$1.2m) – up 2020
SS- Malcolm Jenkins ($3.3m, $16.5m, -$13.2m)- through 2023
S #3- Saquan Hampton ($633k, $146k, +$480k) – through 2022
K- Wil Lutz ($4.2m, $7.3m, -$3.1m) – through 2023
P- Thomas Morstead ($4.3m, $3m, +$1.3m) – through 2022
UFA
QB – Drew Brees ($21m in dead money this season) *signed with Saints, Teddy Bridgewater ($4m in dead money this season) *signed with Panthers
WR- Ted Ginn
RB- Dwayne Washington
FB- Zach Line *retired
OT- Patrick Omameh
OG- Andrus Peat *signed by Saints
DT- David Onyemata *signed by Saints
LB- AJ Klein ($1m in dead money this season) *signed by Bills
CB- Eli Apple *signed by Raiders, PJ Williams
S- Vonn Bell
RFA
QB- Taysom Hill *1st round tender by Saints; resigned to two year deal
2021 season
QB #1- [open]
QB #2-Taysom Hill (details pending) - through 2021
QB #3- Tommy Stevens (details pending) - through 2023
WR #1- Michael Thomas ($18.8m, $23m, -$4.2m) – through 2024
WR #2- Emmanuel Sanders ($10m, $4m, +$6m) - through 2021
WR #3- Deonte Harris ($678k, $3k, +$675k) – through 2021
WR #4- Tre’Quan Smith ($1m, $200k, +$800k) - through 2021
WR #5- [open]
RB #1- [open]
RB #2- Latavius Murray ($4.2m, $1.7m, +$2.5m) – through 2022
RB #3- [open]
FB- [open]
TE #1- Adam Tautman (details pending) - through 2023
TE #2- Josh Hill ($3.3m, $750k, +$2.6m) – through 2021
TE #3- [open]
LT- Terron Armstead ($16.2m, $9.2m, +$7m) – through 2021
LG- Andrus Peat ($11.6m, $19.4m, -$7.8m) - through 2024
C- Caesar Ruiz (details pending) - through 2024
RG- Erik McCoy ($1.6m, $1.2m, +$400k) – up 2022
RT- Ryan Ramczyk ($11m, 0, +$11m) – through 2021 (fifth year option picked up)
OT #3- [open]
OC/OG- Will Clapp ($768k, $18k, +$750k)- through 2021
DE #1- Cameron Jordan ($18.9m, $16.9m, +$2m) – through 2023
DE #2- Marcus Davenport ($4.3m, $4.3m, 0) – through 2022
DE #3- [open]
DE #4- Carl Granderson ($680k, $5k, +$675k) – through 2021
DT #1- David Onyemata ($10m, $7.5m, +$2.5m) - through 2022
DT #2- Shy Tuttle ($676k, $1k, +$675k) – through 2021
DT #3- [open]
DE/DT- [open]
LB #1- Zach Baun (details pending) - through 2023
LB #2- [open]
LB #3- [open]
LB #4- [open]
LB #5- Kaden Elliss ($694k, $38k, +$655k) – through 2022
CB #1- Marshon Lattimore ($10.2m, 0, +$10.2m) – through 2021 (fifth year option picked up)
CB #2- [open]
CB #3- Chauncey Gardner-Johnson ($871k, $393k, +$478k) – through 2022
CB #4- Patrick Robinson ($3.4m, $1.25m, +$1.1m) - through 2021
CB #5- [open]
FS- [open]
SS- Malcolm Jenkins ($8.4m, $12.9m, -$4.5m) - through 2023
S #3- Saquan Hampton ($723k, $97k, +$626k) – through 2022
K- Wil Lutz ($4.7m, $3.1m, $1.5m) – through 2023
P- Thomas Morstead ($4.5m, $2m, $2.5m) – through 2022
Offense commentary:
Fortunately, we have Taysom Hill as a restrictive free agent which offers a significant amount of flexibility. If Brees retires, then the Saints could sign both Taysom and Teddy. If Brees retires, and the Saints get outbid for the services of Teddy, then they still have Taysom as a “what the hell” starting QB who has considerable upside. We are in a pretty good spot, all things considered. Brees has $20m+ in dead money which likely means that he'll return, unless he retires.
Just like this year, we could use a #2 WR. But guess what, 2020 is best WR class that I have ever seen in my nearly twenty years of being serious about this type of thing. You don’t even need to spend a first rounder to get a good one. There will upgrades through the 4th round in this draft. I don’t know what we have in TQS yet, but he’s definitely not a deterrent from upgrading the position. I love Deonte Harris and he’ll have a role moving forward. But I like him more as a matchup guy right now than an every down #2 WR.
The RB situation is a tricky one. I think that there is a decent chance that Alvin Kamara can try to hold out this next offseason. The injury and its detrimental effect on his season could have him thinking about his future, he may think that he can break the bank based on his success in his first two seasons. For that reason alone, I think that the Saints should consider drafting a high upside do-it-all RB this year. At worst, you have good depth behind Kamara and Murray, but I think it’s important preemptively in the case that things go sour with Kamara.
The Saints don’t have a starting fullback signed for 2020-2021, and resigning Zach Line makes a ton of sense.
The Saints could also use depth at both TE and OL. Cook is getting up there in age, but it’s not unusual for TEs to be pretty productive into their early-to-mid 30’s. This isn’t a great TE class, so I think that it would be more of an upside/depth type of guy. I think that the Saints should be fine on the OL for 2020, but they definitely could use depth and quite a bit of help will be needed in 2021 when Warford’s contract expires. It makes a bunch of sense to target a mid-to-late round, versatile, upside OL this draft so that they may be ready by 2021.
Defense commentary:
The Saints should be pretty good at the DE position for the foreseeable future with Jordan and Davenport. Of course, pass rusher is a position that you can never have too much high-end depth, so I wouldn’t exclude it as a draft target. But it is very low on the draft needs list, in my opinion. DT is a totally different story. The Saints could use some help, with Rankins perpetually injured and entering the final year of his rookie contract. I think that the Saints should be ok even without Onyemata in 2020 because they have strong depth with Tuttle, Edwards, and Brown, but I’m sure that he’s a guy they’d like to bring back if possible. The bigger concern comes in 2021, when only Shy Tuttle is under contract.
The LB position could use an upgrade alongside Demario Davis. AJ Klein had a fantastic year this season, but he’s currently a free agent and I don’t think that anyone is ready to guarantee that Klein will be the same player moving forward. He’s been highly inconsistent his Saints career. Kiko Alonso provides good depth as a #3 LB. I think that Alex Anzalone is a guy who you hope the best and expect the worst. He simply can’t stay healthy. The biggest issue is that the Saints only have Kaden Elliss under contract for the 2021 season. I’d be shocked if Demario Davis isn’t a priority resigning. It’s a pretty good draft class at the LB position, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the Saints go that route at some point.
The CB situation looks fine, even without Apple in 2020. The safety situation is a little bit more challenging. Right now, Marcus Williams is playing at a low price tag and he’s shown some ability, so though I’m sure he haunts many of our dreams, he’ll be a Saint next season. But I don’t think that you make any long-term decisions based upon his presence. In 2021, Williams is a free agent and he has lots to prove before he is resigned at this point. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson offers the secondary a ton of versatility because I think that he can play nickel, FS, or SS. With the question marks surrounding Williams, I’d like the Saints to make a strong play at Von Bell who solidifies the SS position, and allows the Saints to keep CGJ at his ideal position (nickel) but having the option of moving him over to FS if Williams bombs.
Target free agents:
1) Taysom Hill (RFA) *signed with Saints
2) Von Bell (UFA)
3) David Onyemata *signed with Saints
4) AJ Klein *signed with Bills
5) Zach Line *retired
Saints positional draft needs:
1) LB - 3rd round
2) WR
3) DT
4) OG - 1st round (via McCoy switching positions)
5) QB - 7th round
6) S
7) CB
8) RB
9) DE
10) TE - 3rd round
11) OT
When you look at the difference between dead money and cap savings, here are the guys who the Saints would gain more than $1 million by cutting:
1) Janoris Jenkins- about $11.2 million gained by cutting
Is Janoris Jenkins a $10+ million CB? That's the first contract you have to address, because that a substantial savings if you don't think he's that guy.
2) Sheldon Rankins- about $7.6 million gained by cutting
Rankins is another big one. My gut is that the Saints will keep his 5th year option, but I honestly don't think that he has been worth $7.6 million up until this point. I'm doubtful if he ever will be...not a game changer and always hurt. But for the hope and prayer that he gets it put together, the Saints probably keep him.
3) Kiko Alonso- about $7 million gained by cutting
This is the easiest one on the list. There no chance the Saints keep Alonso at his current price, especially as he comes off of an ACL tear. It wouldn't be surprising if he gets restructured at a much lower price though, because he seemed to be a pretty good fit and the Saints need help at LB. *Update 3/17: Alonso restructured, as expected.
4) Larry Warford- about $4.1 million gained by cutting
I think that Warford stays. He's a good player when healthy.
5) Terron Armstead- about $3.6 million gained by cutting
Likewise, I think that Armstead is probably worth $3.6 million for the hope and prayer that he stays healthy. He's a game changer when he's in there. No chance the Saints cut him, but I suppose that they could trade him if they get a nice return. *Update 3/20: restructured to backload contract(he's not going anywhere)
6) Mario Edwards- about $2.3 million gained by cutting
Edwards played well this last year and provides nice depth at many DL positions. I think he stays, but if the Saints DL depth continues to progress (Granderson and Tuttle take steps forward), I suppose the Edwards can be a late cut.
7) Alvin Kamara- about $1.7 million gained by cutting
We give Kamara a hard time here, and much of it is deserved. The expectations are high, as they should be...he's one of the great players in the NFL...and his play was probably the most disappointing individual performance of the Saints 2019 season. There's no chance the Saints cut him, but I do think that a trade is very possible.
8) Patrick Robinson- about $1.2 million gained by cutting
Robinson played pretty well late in the season last year. If the Saints lose Bell and Apple, which is very possible, I'd be surprised if Robinson isn't retained at his current price. With Bell and Apple gone, CJGJ plays more safety and that would create a larger need at nickel, which is where Patrick Robinson fits well. *Update 3/17: restructured contract
9) Craig Robinson- about $1.1 million gained by cutting
Robinson is as steady as they come. He is a special teams ace and his knowledge of the defense really helps. His skills are declining, but the Saints don't have much at LB, so I think there's a good chance he's back.
Looking at the contracts, here are my rankings of young Saints players most likely to either be cut or traded before their contracts expire.
1) Alex Anzalone...I'd be surprised if he lasts longer than his rookie contract. Can't stay healthy if his life depended on it...which it really does, unfortunately.
2) Sheldon Rankins...the Saints picked up his 5th year option, and I question whether he's worth it. The guy just can't stay healthy and he wasn't very explosive last year coming back from the Achilles. We'll see where he's at this year.
3) TreQuan Smith...probably gone after his rookie contract unless his production ramps up rapidly. Not a bad player, but he just doesn't look particularly talented. Doesn't seem to have a dog mentality. But we'll see if the Saints can get a QB who can throw the ball more than 30 yards with accuracy if he can better play his game.
4) Marcus Davenport...what a frustrating prospect. Reminds me quite a bit of Akiem Hicks. Doesn't seem to take the offseason seriously and lo-and-behold gets hurt. I don't believe that injuries are often a coincidence. Players are prone to injury, largely because of their genetics (anatomy), biomechanics, and training regimens. When was the last time Cam Jordan got hurt? Guys like Rankins and Davenport have accumulated more injuries in their few years in the league than Cam Jordan in his long NFL career. Jordan takes care of his body, and it certainly doesn't hurt to have good genetics.
5) Alvin Kamara...will be looking at a top contract and could get it. I didn't like his attitude and the way he played this season. It's not just the injury (though I do admit that that could have been one of the factors).
6) Marshon Lattimore...another guy who could demand a top contract at his position. Is he worth it? Maybe, but he's been inconsistent in regards to preparation, effort, and production. Phenomenal player but we'll see how he does next year.
7) Michael Thomas...I don't think that this one will happen, but crazier things have happened. He is currently the highest paid WR in the league and deserves it. The question is where he will be paid two years from now. If inferior players start getting paid more it could result in a holdout/trade ala Beckham. I love Thomas, but he definitely has an ego and is business savvy.
8) Ryan Ramczyk...I'd say that he is probably the least likely to be cut/traded. He's an all-pro tackle...should be elite indefinitely...no injury concerns...you can set your watch to his consistency. Like Thomas, he deserves the money he's about to get paid. Also, it is VERY rare for tackles to hold out. It happened this year in Washington with Trent Williams, but that was because of something that bordered on medical malpractice.
Larry Warford ($12.8m, $4.3m, +$8.5m) – through 2020
Here’s a look ahead to the 2020 and 2021 Saints’ rosters. I always like looking two years ahead because it typically takes a few years for players to develop. For that reason, I like to try to fill out the roster with that in mind. I'll be updating this as the offseason moves forward.
Overall, 2020 is looking pretty good. We will have lots of work to do between now and the 2021 season, but the good thing is that we have time. We really don’t have many BAD contracts for either season, which is very refreshing. Loomis has done a masterful job of balancing the budget, though that has definitely been assisted with our hit rate through both the draft and free agency as of late.
2020 season
QB #1- Drew Brees ($25m, $25m, 0) - through 2020 (has a voided 2021)
QB #2- Taysom Hill (details pending) - through 2021
QB #3- Jameis Winston (details pending) - through 2020
WR #1- Michael Thomas ($7m, $27m, -$20m) – through 2024
WR #2- Emmanuel Sanders ($4m, $6m, -$2m) - through 2021
WR #3- Deonte Harris ($588k, $6k, +$582k) – through 2021
WR #4- Tre’Quan Smith ($912k, $408k, +$500k) - through 2021
WR #5- [open]
RB #1- Alvin Kamara ($1.2m, $243k, +$900k) - through 2020
RB #2- Latavius Murray ($4m, $5.3, -$1.3m) – through 2022
RB #3- [open]
FB- Michael Burton ($887k, $748k, +$139k) - through 2020
TE #1- Jared Cook ($9m, $4m, +$5m) – through 2020
TE #2- Josh Hill ($2.8m, $1.75m, +$1.9m) – through 2021
TE #3- Adam Tautman (details pending)- through 2023
LT- Terron Armstead ($8.7m, $16.9m, -$8.2m) – through 2021
LG- Andrus Peat ($3.6m, $23m, -$19.4m) - through 2024
C- Caesar Ruiz (details pending) -through 2024
RG- Erik McCoy ($1.3m, $2.6m, -$1.3m) – up 2022
RT- Ryan Ramczyk ($2.8m, $1.5m, +$1.3m) – through 2021
OT #3- [open]
OC/OG- Will Clapp ($768k, $18k, +$750k)- through 2021
DE #1- Cameron Jordan ($15.9m, $14.1m, +$1.8m) – through 2023
DE #2- Marcus Davenport ($3.7m, $8.1m, -$4.4m) – through 2022
DE #3- Trey Hendrickson ($935k, $176k, +$700k) – through 2020
DE #4- Carl Granderson ($590k, $10k, +$580k) – through 2021
DT #1- David Onyemata ($3.5m, $10m, -$6.5m) - through 2022
DT #2- Sheldon Rankins ($7.6m, 0, +$7.6m) - through 2020 (fifth year option picked up)
DT #3- Malcolm Brown ($6m, $3m, +$3m) – through 2020
DT #4- Shy Tuttle ($586k, $3k, +$585k) – through 2021
DE/DT- Mario Edwards ($3.2m, $475k, +$2.7m) – through 2020
LB #1- Demario Davis ($9.9m, $4.6m, +$5.3m) – through 2020
LB #2- Kiko Alonso ($4m, $2.3m, +$1.7m)
LB #3- Alex Anzalone ($1m, $216k, +$800k) – through 2020
LB #4- Zach Baun (details pending) - through 2023
LB #5- Kaden Elliss ($600k, $50k, +$550k) – through 2022
CB #1- Marshon Lattimore ($4.8m, $4.8m, 0) – through 2021
CB #2- Janoris Jenkins ($11.2m, 0, +$11.2m) – through 2020
CB #3- Chauncey Gardner-Johnson ($781k, $588k, +$200k) – through 2022
CB #4- Patrick Robinson ($3.2m, $2.5m, -$700k) - through 2021
CB #5- Justin Hardee ($1.5m, $365k, +$1.1m) - through 2020
FS- Marcus Williams ($1.9m, $669k, +$1.2m) – up 2020
SS- Malcolm Jenkins ($3.3m, $16.5m, -$13.2m)- through 2023
S #3- Saquan Hampton ($633k, $146k, +$480k) – through 2022
K- Wil Lutz ($4.2m, $7.3m, -$3.1m) – through 2023
P- Thomas Morstead ($4.3m, $3m, +$1.3m) – through 2022
UFA
QB – Drew Brees ($21m in dead money this season) *signed with Saints, Teddy Bridgewater ($4m in dead money this season) *signed with Panthers
WR- Ted Ginn
RB- Dwayne Washington
FB- Zach Line *retired
OT- Patrick Omameh
OG- Andrus Peat *signed by Saints
DT- David Onyemata *signed by Saints
LB- AJ Klein ($1m in dead money this season) *signed by Bills
CB- Eli Apple *signed by Raiders, PJ Williams
S- Vonn Bell
RFA
QB- Taysom Hill *1st round tender by Saints; resigned to two year deal
2021 season
QB #1- [open]
QB #2-Taysom Hill (details pending) - through 2021
QB #3- Tommy Stevens (details pending) - through 2023
WR #1- Michael Thomas ($18.8m, $23m, -$4.2m) – through 2024
WR #2- Emmanuel Sanders ($10m, $4m, +$6m) - through 2021
WR #3- Deonte Harris ($678k, $3k, +$675k) – through 2021
WR #4- Tre’Quan Smith ($1m, $200k, +$800k) - through 2021
WR #5- [open]
RB #1- [open]
RB #2- Latavius Murray ($4.2m, $1.7m, +$2.5m) – through 2022
RB #3- [open]
FB- [open]
TE #1- Adam Tautman (details pending) - through 2023
TE #2- Josh Hill ($3.3m, $750k, +$2.6m) – through 2021
TE #3- [open]
LT- Terron Armstead ($16.2m, $9.2m, +$7m) – through 2021
LG- Andrus Peat ($11.6m, $19.4m, -$7.8m) - through 2024
C- Caesar Ruiz (details pending) - through 2024
RG- Erik McCoy ($1.6m, $1.2m, +$400k) – up 2022
RT- Ryan Ramczyk ($11m, 0, +$11m) – through 2021 (fifth year option picked up)
OT #3- [open]
OC/OG- Will Clapp ($768k, $18k, +$750k)- through 2021
DE #1- Cameron Jordan ($18.9m, $16.9m, +$2m) – through 2023
DE #2- Marcus Davenport ($4.3m, $4.3m, 0) – through 2022
DE #3- [open]
DE #4- Carl Granderson ($680k, $5k, +$675k) – through 2021
DT #1- David Onyemata ($10m, $7.5m, +$2.5m) - through 2022
DT #2- Shy Tuttle ($676k, $1k, +$675k) – through 2021
DT #3- [open]
DE/DT- [open]
LB #1- Zach Baun (details pending) - through 2023
LB #2- [open]
LB #3- [open]
LB #4- [open]
LB #5- Kaden Elliss ($694k, $38k, +$655k) – through 2022
CB #1- Marshon Lattimore ($10.2m, 0, +$10.2m) – through 2021 (fifth year option picked up)
CB #2- [open]
CB #3- Chauncey Gardner-Johnson ($871k, $393k, +$478k) – through 2022
CB #4- Patrick Robinson ($3.4m, $1.25m, +$1.1m) - through 2021
CB #5- [open]
FS- [open]
SS- Malcolm Jenkins ($8.4m, $12.9m, -$4.5m) - through 2023
S #3- Saquan Hampton ($723k, $97k, +$626k) – through 2022
K- Wil Lutz ($4.7m, $3.1m, $1.5m) – through 2023
P- Thomas Morstead ($4.5m, $2m, $2.5m) – through 2022
Offense commentary:
Fortunately, we have Taysom Hill as a restrictive free agent which offers a significant amount of flexibility. If Brees retires, then the Saints could sign both Taysom and Teddy. If Brees retires, and the Saints get outbid for the services of Teddy, then they still have Taysom as a “what the hell” starting QB who has considerable upside. We are in a pretty good spot, all things considered. Brees has $20m+ in dead money which likely means that he'll return, unless he retires.
Just like this year, we could use a #2 WR. But guess what, 2020 is best WR class that I have ever seen in my nearly twenty years of being serious about this type of thing. You don’t even need to spend a first rounder to get a good one. There will upgrades through the 4th round in this draft. I don’t know what we have in TQS yet, but he’s definitely not a deterrent from upgrading the position. I love Deonte Harris and he’ll have a role moving forward. But I like him more as a matchup guy right now than an every down #2 WR.
The RB situation is a tricky one. I think that there is a decent chance that Alvin Kamara can try to hold out this next offseason. The injury and its detrimental effect on his season could have him thinking about his future, he may think that he can break the bank based on his success in his first two seasons. For that reason alone, I think that the Saints should consider drafting a high upside do-it-all RB this year. At worst, you have good depth behind Kamara and Murray, but I think it’s important preemptively in the case that things go sour with Kamara.
The Saints don’t have a starting fullback signed for 2020-2021, and resigning Zach Line makes a ton of sense.
The Saints could also use depth at both TE and OL. Cook is getting up there in age, but it’s not unusual for TEs to be pretty productive into their early-to-mid 30’s. This isn’t a great TE class, so I think that it would be more of an upside/depth type of guy. I think that the Saints should be fine on the OL for 2020, but they definitely could use depth and quite a bit of help will be needed in 2021 when Warford’s contract expires. It makes a bunch of sense to target a mid-to-late round, versatile, upside OL this draft so that they may be ready by 2021.
Defense commentary:
The Saints should be pretty good at the DE position for the foreseeable future with Jordan and Davenport. Of course, pass rusher is a position that you can never have too much high-end depth, so I wouldn’t exclude it as a draft target. But it is very low on the draft needs list, in my opinion. DT is a totally different story. The Saints could use some help, with Rankins perpetually injured and entering the final year of his rookie contract. I think that the Saints should be ok even without Onyemata in 2020 because they have strong depth with Tuttle, Edwards, and Brown, but I’m sure that he’s a guy they’d like to bring back if possible. The bigger concern comes in 2021, when only Shy Tuttle is under contract.
The LB position could use an upgrade alongside Demario Davis. AJ Klein had a fantastic year this season, but he’s currently a free agent and I don’t think that anyone is ready to guarantee that Klein will be the same player moving forward. He’s been highly inconsistent his Saints career. Kiko Alonso provides good depth as a #3 LB. I think that Alex Anzalone is a guy who you hope the best and expect the worst. He simply can’t stay healthy. The biggest issue is that the Saints only have Kaden Elliss under contract for the 2021 season. I’d be shocked if Demario Davis isn’t a priority resigning. It’s a pretty good draft class at the LB position, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the Saints go that route at some point.
The CB situation looks fine, even without Apple in 2020. The safety situation is a little bit more challenging. Right now, Marcus Williams is playing at a low price tag and he’s shown some ability, so though I’m sure he haunts many of our dreams, he’ll be a Saint next season. But I don’t think that you make any long-term decisions based upon his presence. In 2021, Williams is a free agent and he has lots to prove before he is resigned at this point. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson offers the secondary a ton of versatility because I think that he can play nickel, FS, or SS. With the question marks surrounding Williams, I’d like the Saints to make a strong play at Von Bell who solidifies the SS position, and allows the Saints to keep CGJ at his ideal position (nickel) but having the option of moving him over to FS if Williams bombs.
Target free agents:
1) Taysom Hill (RFA) *signed with Saints
2) Von Bell (UFA)
3) David Onyemata *signed with Saints
4) AJ Klein *signed with Bills
5) Zach Line *retired
Saints positional draft needs:
1) LB - 3rd round
2) WR
3) DT
4) OG - 1st round (via McCoy switching positions)
5) QB - 7th round
6) S
7) CB
8) RB
9) DE
10) TE - 3rd round
11) OT
When you look at the difference between dead money and cap savings, here are the guys who the Saints would gain more than $1 million by cutting:
1) Janoris Jenkins- about $11.2 million gained by cutting
Is Janoris Jenkins a $10+ million CB? That's the first contract you have to address, because that a substantial savings if you don't think he's that guy.
2) Sheldon Rankins- about $7.6 million gained by cutting
Rankins is another big one. My gut is that the Saints will keep his 5th year option, but I honestly don't think that he has been worth $7.6 million up until this point. I'm doubtful if he ever will be...not a game changer and always hurt. But for the hope and prayer that he gets it put together, the Saints probably keep him.
3) Kiko Alonso- about $7 million gained by cutting
This is the easiest one on the list. There no chance the Saints keep Alonso at his current price, especially as he comes off of an ACL tear. It wouldn't be surprising if he gets restructured at a much lower price though, because he seemed to be a pretty good fit and the Saints need help at LB. *Update 3/17: Alonso restructured, as expected.
4) Larry Warford- about $4.1 million gained by cutting
I think that Warford stays. He's a good player when healthy.
5) Terron Armstead- about $3.6 million gained by cutting
Likewise, I think that Armstead is probably worth $3.6 million for the hope and prayer that he stays healthy. He's a game changer when he's in there. No chance the Saints cut him, but I suppose that they could trade him if they get a nice return. *Update 3/20: restructured to backload contract(he's not going anywhere)
6) Mario Edwards- about $2.3 million gained by cutting
Edwards played well this last year and provides nice depth at many DL positions. I think he stays, but if the Saints DL depth continues to progress (Granderson and Tuttle take steps forward), I suppose the Edwards can be a late cut.
7) Alvin Kamara- about $1.7 million gained by cutting
We give Kamara a hard time here, and much of it is deserved. The expectations are high, as they should be...he's one of the great players in the NFL...and his play was probably the most disappointing individual performance of the Saints 2019 season. There's no chance the Saints cut him, but I do think that a trade is very possible.
8) Patrick Robinson- about $1.2 million gained by cutting
Robinson played pretty well late in the season last year. If the Saints lose Bell and Apple, which is very possible, I'd be surprised if Robinson isn't retained at his current price. With Bell and Apple gone, CJGJ plays more safety and that would create a larger need at nickel, which is where Patrick Robinson fits well. *Update 3/17: restructured contract
9) Craig Robinson- about $1.1 million gained by cutting
Robinson is as steady as they come. He is a special teams ace and his knowledge of the defense really helps. His skills are declining, but the Saints don't have much at LB, so I think there's a good chance he's back.
Looking at the contracts, here are my rankings of young Saints players most likely to either be cut or traded before their contracts expire.
1) Alex Anzalone...I'd be surprised if he lasts longer than his rookie contract. Can't stay healthy if his life depended on it...which it really does, unfortunately.
2) Sheldon Rankins...the Saints picked up his 5th year option, and I question whether he's worth it. The guy just can't stay healthy and he wasn't very explosive last year coming back from the Achilles. We'll see where he's at this year.
3) TreQuan Smith...probably gone after his rookie contract unless his production ramps up rapidly. Not a bad player, but he just doesn't look particularly talented. Doesn't seem to have a dog mentality. But we'll see if the Saints can get a QB who can throw the ball more than 30 yards with accuracy if he can better play his game.
4) Marcus Davenport...what a frustrating prospect. Reminds me quite a bit of Akiem Hicks. Doesn't seem to take the offseason seriously and lo-and-behold gets hurt. I don't believe that injuries are often a coincidence. Players are prone to injury, largely because of their genetics (anatomy), biomechanics, and training regimens. When was the last time Cam Jordan got hurt? Guys like Rankins and Davenport have accumulated more injuries in their few years in the league than Cam Jordan in his long NFL career. Jordan takes care of his body, and it certainly doesn't hurt to have good genetics.
5) Alvin Kamara...will be looking at a top contract and could get it. I didn't like his attitude and the way he played this season. It's not just the injury (though I do admit that that could have been one of the factors).
6) Marshon Lattimore...another guy who could demand a top contract at his position. Is he worth it? Maybe, but he's been inconsistent in regards to preparation, effort, and production. Phenomenal player but we'll see how he does next year.
7) Michael Thomas...I don't think that this one will happen, but crazier things have happened. He is currently the highest paid WR in the league and deserves it. The question is where he will be paid two years from now. If inferior players start getting paid more it could result in a holdout/trade ala Beckham. I love Thomas, but he definitely has an ego and is business savvy.
8) Ryan Ramczyk...I'd say that he is probably the least likely to be cut/traded. He's an all-pro tackle...should be elite indefinitely...no injury concerns...you can set your watch to his consistency. Like Thomas, he deserves the money he's about to get paid. Also, it is VERY rare for tackles to hold out. It happened this year in Washington with Trent Williams, but that was because of something that bordered on medical malpractice.
Larry Warford ($12.8m, $4.3m, +$8.5m) – through 2020
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