As it stands now, I think Hillary takes Texas due to a new trend among Republican crossover voters. (1 Viewer)

gavinj

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The rules of the Texas primary, generally considered to favor Obama, are in fact going to swing the election to Clinton in my opinion. Now that the first weekend of early voting is over, I can tell you that the trend of Republicans turning out to vote for Obama we've seen in other states isn't happening here. They are turning out in big numbers to vote for Clinton. Probably in large enough numbers to tip the scales in her favor in terms of the popular vote and most saying they are returning to caucus March 4th for her to help sew up the remaining delegates. They are all pro-McCain and the ones who seem 'in the know' are gleefully and unapologetically voting Hillary because they believe that 1) she is the weaker opponent for McCain and 2) a drawn out fight for the Democratic nomination favors McCain as well. Just thought I'd give a heads up to the politicos interested in the election. In a certain early voting location here in Dallas in the middle of the most Republican part of the city, of 1000 voters on Saturday - 730 Democrat ballots vs 270 Republican ballots. Usually this location's numbers would be exactly the opposite of that. It's a crazy swing that is being misinterpreted by most as a sign of Obama's support among some Republicans/Independents as well as an anti-Hillary vote. In fact, informal exit polling is showing those votes going to Hillary by a huge margin. Thought some of you might find this interesting.
 

Saint by the Bay

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That's the opposite of what I expected. I thought we'd see a lot of Republicans casting Hillary Hating votes.

I guess that's why I'm not getting paid 250k per month by Hillary as a consultant like some others. :hihi:
 

Shawn

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My understanding, though, is that Obama doesn't need to win Texas. He just has to keep it close.
 

Saint by the Bay

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My understanding, though, is that Obama doesn't need to win Texas. He just has to keep it close.

Actually he could lose by a few points and still win the delegate count. On local radio here they keep saying it's nearly impossible for Hillary to win the delegate count because of how the congressional districts break down. They were carved up by the Republicans to marginalize the Hispanic and Black vote in the state that usually goes Democrat. There were lawsuits that, I believe, made it to the SCOTUS. Anyway, because of the carving up the only districts that have enough Hispanic votes to help her if the demographics of the campaign hold won't have enough delegates to stop the places where Obama will be strong.

Of course, this is all based on the demographic voting trends holding up.
 
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gavinj

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That's the opposite of what I expected. I thought we'd see a lot of Republicans casting Hillary Hating votes.

Opposite of what I expected, too. I'm pretty disheartened about it actually. Texas Republicans are very clever, though, aside from Dubya. With McCain having it locked up, they have turned their attention to the Democratic primary and are getting Machiavellian with it. I'm somewhat impressed in a sick to the gut kind of way. Believe me, I'm hoping I'm completely wrong.
 

SaintJ

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There's a lot of fear out there on the right.

And they've got nothing to run on in the fall except more of it: fear of terror, fear of Iran, fear of higher taxes (despite the fact that we're practically a tax haven, and the net effect on most Americans would be minimal), fear that somebody will take away your RPG launcher, fear of immigrants, fear, fear, fear.

Obama is refusing to battle on their well-chosen terms, and it scares the hell out of the operatives.
 

LSSpam

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My understanding, though, is that Obama doesn't need to win Texas. He just has to keep it close.

It's a morale issue. Practically speaking he just needs to keep it close to stay ahead of Hillary. But if Hillary claims both Ohio and Texas she builds considerable momentum and creates a strong justification to continue fighting the race. Obama needs to win one or the other (and Texas is undoubtedly his best shot at either) to put here away for good. Winning Texas may very well cause her to concede.


I sure hope enough McCain voters don't get siphoned off by the Democratic primary that it ends up giving Huckabee new life. Even though that seems unlikely a Texas win for Huckabee will virtually guarantee him hanging around splitting McCain's attention. McCain's already facing potential campaign finance problems as it is with the public financing problem. He really needs the RNC to open up it's war chest and go to bat for him and I don't think they can ethically do that until Huckabee bows out so McCain can finish his "coronation".
 

LSSpam

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There's a lot of fear out there on the right.

And they've got nothing to run on in the fall except more of it: fear of terror, fear of Iran, fear of higher taxes (despite the fact that we're practically a tax haven, and the net effect on most Americans would be minimal), fear that somebody will take away your RPG launcher, fear of immigrants, fear, fear, fear.

Obama is refusing to battle on their well-chosen terms, and it scares the hell out of the operatives.
Awesome, let's turn this thread into rhetoric.
 
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gavinj

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Actually he could lose by a few points and still win the delegate count. On local radio here they keep saying it's nearly impossible for Hillary to win the delegate count because of how the congressional districts break down. They were carved up by the Republicans to marginalize the Hispanic and Black vote in the state that usually goes Democrat. There were lawsuits that, I believe, made it to the SCOTUS. Anyway, because of the carving up the only districts that have enough Hispanic votes to help her if the demographics of the campaign hold won't have enough delegates to stop the places where Obama will be strong.

Of course, this is all based on the demographic voting trends holding up.

The problem is, nobody expected so many Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary here. Obama would be in great shape if a battle between McCain and Huckabee was in play. If what we're seeing in the early voting in Dallas, Tarrant, and Harris counties carries into March 4th (as it usually does) Obama isn't going to keep it close. Hillary will win by double digits. Traditional polling isn't picking it up because these voters support McCain in the polling and show up in the Democrat primary to vote Clinton which they see as another way of supporting McCain. They aren't afraid of her winning in November at all. I think they are playing with fire, but I think they are also probably making the right play.
 

primadox

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The problem is, nobody expected so many Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary here. Obama would be in great shape if a battle between McCain and Huckabee was in play. If what we're seeing in the early voting in Dallas, Tarrant, and Harris counties carries into March 4th (as it usually does) Obama isn't going to keep it close. Hillary will win by double digits. Traditional polling isn't picking it up because these voters support McCain in the polling and show up in the Democrat primary to vote Clinton which they see as another way of supporting McCain. They aren't afraid of her winning in November at all. I think they are playing with fire, but I think they are also probably making the right play.

It's an interesting strategy, no doubt about it. What's the early voting showing in Harris county specifically? That's where I am. I haven't voted yet, and I'm still debating over what to do. You're correct, IMO, in saying that a vote by Republicans for Hillary is a way to support McCain...sure makes it more interesting.
 

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I've heard a lot of callers calling in to WOAI out of San Antonio saying that they are Republicans and that they will be voting for Hillary. I do not believe these same voters will Caucus afterwards though. Obama should pick up enough delegates in the Caucus to keep it close.
 
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gavinj

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It's an interesting strategy, no doubt about it. What's the early voting showing in Harris county specifically? That's where I am. I haven't voted yet, and I'm still debating over what to do. You're correct, IMO, in saying that a vote by Republicans for Hillary is a way to support McCain...sure makes it more interesting.

Harris County is right at about 3.5 Democrat ballots cast to every 1 Republican ballot cast as of yesterday evening. The projection before the polls opened there was 2 to 1. Most officials initially assumed this was an outpouring of Obama support combined with Hillary haters. That's what we saw happen in most states up until now. McCain comfortably locking up his nomination plus the complete disregard of Clinton's viability by Texas Republicans are the two things contributing to what I would call a 'new' trend here. People thinking these are Obama votes are making a faulty assumption imo.
 

MackeyM

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Harris County is right at about 3.5 Democrat ballots cast to every 1 Republican ballot cast as of yesterday evening. The projection before the polls opened there was 2 to 1. Most officials initially assumed this was an outpouring of Obama support combined with Hillary haters. That's what we saw happen in most states up until now. McCain comfortably locking up his nomination plus the complete disregard of Clinton's viability by Texas Republicans are the two things contributing to what I would call a 'new' trend here. People thinking these are Obama votes are making a faulty assumption imo.

This may be true, but aren't you making the same faulty assumption in assuming that the majority of these votes are being cast for Hillary?

Have any returns been reported for the early balloting? I haven't seen any, thus far. Is this pure speculation on your part?

Not trying to disregard your posts, just wondering.
 

Saint by the Bay

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This may be true, but aren't you making the same faulty assumption in assuming that the majority of these votes are being cast for Hillary?

Have any returns been reported for the early balloting? I haven't seen any, thus far. Is this pure speculation on your part?

Not trying to disregard your posts, just wondering.

gavinj is working on the campaign and as such has access to information, like early exit polling, the rest of us do not. It's what makes him such a good source of information about the inner workings of this beast of an election season. :9:
 

primadox

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gavinj is working on the campaign and as such has access to information, like early exit polling, the rest of us do not. It's what makes him such a good source of information about the inner workings of the beast of an election season. :9:

Thanks for being such a good source of info, gavinj! :9:
 

MackeyM

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Gotcha, SBTB. I've seen some reports that paint a different picture than what is proposed in this thread and I'm just curious as to what is actually happening in the different areas.

Houston is reporting the opposite of what gavinj is saying, so it looks like the polls may be correct in predicting a close race.

SaintsReport never ceases to amaze me with its diverse community.
 

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