Brees 70%+ loss rate when he has more than 40 attempted throws (1 Viewer)

[BigA3723]

I was watching Playbook NFC and the same stat that killed us last year is just coming up again. When Brees has thrown more than 40 attempts in a game, he has lost 70% of those regular season games.

Even going further, in Playoffs games WITH 40+ attempts he is 0-3, in playoffs games with LESS THAN 40 attempts, he is 4-0 including SuperBowl!

I have seen a lot of film on last weeks Rams game and it seems like the runs we're just about to break out but someone missed their block, whether Bushrod or TE Gilmore, and messed up the play. Same with passing game, if Brees had even one more second, he had people wide open, but the blocking up front was terrible. It's not like the guys upfront have been terrible all season, most just had a second bad game, Tampa Bay being the first. Hopefully they execute better this Sunday and them it's back to elite offensive display!

 

[diat150]

a small contigent of us have been saying for years now that we need to run more and take the load off of brees shoulders.

 

[bornnraisedwhodat]

It's a telling stat.

Has less to do with play calling and more to do with game situation. If he is throwing 40 times, he either has no running game and/or is behind by double digits.

 

[BigA3723]

It's a telling stat.

Has less to do with play calling and more to do with game situation. If he is throwing 40 times, he either has no running game and/or is behind by double digits.

Exactly, it's playing unbalanced and getting one dimensional by not running enough! Ivory needs to run over the Bucs tomorrow! (it's past midnight)

 

[blackjack]

I saw that too. Those clips of the Oline were brutal, and Brees' stats with over 40 passes confirms what a lot of us knew; we need balance-period.

Hoping that Streif coming back will start to solidify the line, but it's looks more like they need a kick in their *****.

 

[bornnraisedwhodat]

Exactly, it's playing unbalanced and getting one dimensional by not running enough! Ivory needs to run over the Bucs tomorrow! (it's past midnight)

Comes down to if we let the Bucs get ahead. Obviously we slow that down by running the ball. but not just running it but running it efficiently. You can run all you want but if all you are getting is 2-3 yards its pointless.

 

[Twags14]

against the rams you could tell we tried running but it just did not get anywhere at all. even went 3 and out on 3 running plays at one point.

drew brees magic number of pass attempts always seems to be between 30-36.

 

[bornnraisedwhodat]

against the rams you could tell we tried running but it just did not get anywhere at all. even went 3 and out on 3 running plays at one point.

drew brees magic number of pass attempts always seems to be between 30-36.

11 of our 1st 17 plays were runs, just wasn't getting anything. Blockers couldn't get to the second level.

 

[NYCsaint]

Comes down to if we let the Bucs get ahead. Obviously we slow that down by running the ball. but not just running it but running it efficiently. You can run all you want but if all you are getting is 2-3 yards its pointless.

2nd and 7 or 3rd and 4 is a very manageable spot to be in.

I'll also say an investment in the run game doesn't always show immediately. Whether it just keeps the D honest, or it grinds them down as the game goes and becomes more successful - rarely is it pointless.

 

[realitybias]

Correlation without causation, look it up.

It may be (and likely is) BECAUSE he is losing those games that he has to throw 10-15 times at the end of the game to try and catch up.

 

[SaintSeb]

Running the ball for the sake of running gets us nowhere. The O-line needs to be a lot more effective if the coaches are going to stick with the run game. We are not a grind-it-out type team with a defense that can win it for us.

 

[Sev705]

Correlation without causation, look it up.

It may be (and likely is) BECAUSE he is losing those games that he has to throw 10-15 times at the end of the game to try and catch up.

So I just read up on this stuff and it all makes sense to my sleep deprived brain. Now tomorrow might be a different story.

 

[SaintsFanInNY]

Correlation without causation, look it up.

It may be (and likely is) BECAUSE he is losing those games that he has to throw 10-15 times at the end of the game to try and catch up.

Bingo! When I teach this concept to my students we look at data showing the high correlation between daily umbrella use and car accidents and then discuss whether the increase in people using umbrella's causes more car accidents.

 

[Mason]

Correlation without causation, look it up.

It may be (and likely is) BECAUSE he is losing those games that he has to throw 10-15 times at the end of the game to try and catch up.

Exactly.

But one game where correlation = causation is the NFC Championship game against the Bears. We had no business throwing that much, especially in that type of weather. The score was close until the 4th quarter, but Payton was so stubborn not to run the ball in that game. Ah I better stop thinking of that game. 09 could have been our second SB against the Colts, had we only ran the damn ball!

 

[Saint Droopy]

Pat Kirwan said that the Saints have won their last 23 games when they rush for 150+ yards. Telling stat indeed...

However...

WHen we try to run, and cant because our oline isn't creating any lanes, then we must throw the ball

Last week is a prime example. we ran the ball 20-something times for 50-something yards. Do we continue to run it even though its obvious its not working?

KEep in mind that we have a defense that gives up alot of points so the offense can't be as patient as say... Baltimore... because we don't have their defense.