Brees 70%+ loss rate when he has more than 40 attempted throws (2 Viewers)

[SaintsW1n]

San Diego had the best offense AND defense in the NFL last year and didn't make the play-offs. What good is it if you can throw all over someone but not pick up that critical 3rd and short or do well in the red-zone when the opposing defense has less field to defend? In the play-offs, you need to be able to run the ball in those situations. Payton's offense will get the team to the play-offs, but it won't advance far if they don't develop a running game that they can depend upon when it is needed-- like in "four minute offense" when playing a close game and trying not to turn it over or stop the clock.

And yes, I am questioning Payton. I am questioning the timing of some of his running plays, the running back he uses, the formations, the personnel packages, all of it. Even going back to the Green Bay game in week 1, that last play of the game was so obvious because Jimmy Graham had his hand in the dirt-- there was no chance it was a playaction and everyone knew it was going to be Ingram between the tackles. At least leave a little doubt, where maybe it could be a fake, rollout, and pass to Graham dragging to the corner. Many of the Saints running plays this year have been predictable like that last play of the Green Bay game.

1. San Diego's exclusion from the '10 playoffs had nothing to do with their ability to run the ball. You can't just throw out random events to argue your point. The Chargers missed the playoff because they were awful on special teams and were poorly-coached. Neither of which apply to what we're discussing.

2. Our two worst rushing games this year (Tampa, STL) have been, mostly, without the services of Payton's playcalling. It seems like a huge stretch to assign blame to him because we had a terrible game last week.

3. In the '09 NFCCG and Super Bowl (the two most important games in franchise history), we rushed for 68 and 51 yards, respectively. That didn't stop us from winning in the postseason, did it?

Again, my point is that all of this conjecture about Coach Payton's ability to call plays is ridiculous. And again, the whole reason we're even having this discussion is precisely because Payton has not been calling the plays.

 

[Vermont Saint]

San Diego had the best offense AND defense in the NFL last year and didn't make the play-offs. What good is it if you can throw all over someone but not pick up that critical 3rd and short or do well in the red-zone when the opposing defense has less field to defend? In the play-offs, you need to be able to run the ball in those situations. Payton's offense will get the team to the play-offs, but it won't advance far if they don't develop a running game that they can depend upon when it is needed-- like in "four minute offense" when playing a close game and trying not to turn it over or stop the clock.

And yes, I am questioning Payton. I am questioning the timing of some of his running plays, the running back he uses, the formations, the personnel packages, all of it. Even going back to the Green Bay game in week 1, that last play of the game was so obvious because Jimmy Graham had his hand in the dirt-- there was no chance it was a playaction and everyone knew it was going to be Ingram between the tackles. At least leave a little doubt, where maybe it could be a fake, rollout, and pass to Graham dragging to the corner. Many of the Saints running plays this year have been predictable like that last play of the Green Bay game.

Payton's offense has a (statistically significant) track record (data) that speaks for itself. In order to credibly critique his work, you need to do more than second guess him. You have incomplete information regarding both Payton's game strategy and the specific circumstances in which play calling decisions are made. Its simply a fantasy to believe that you might offer some sort of meaningful insight that has escaped the team's coaching staff.

 

[Saint Kamara]

I think we're missing an obvious correlation... when he throws more than 40 attempts its usually because we NEED to, which means we were probably losing anyway and trying to play catchup... its putting the cart before the horse saying that we lost BECAUSE we threw 40 attempts

correct all these stats are the effect, not the cause

 

[blackadder]

a small contigent of us have been saying for years now that we need to run more and take the load off of brees shoulders.

This says it all.

As much a passing league as it is, you still have to be able to run the ball and stay on the plus side of the turnover ratio to win. That was the formula that got us to the Super Bowl. It's really, really simple.

Brees is a phenomenal QB, but when you throw 45 times a game, you up the turnovers and get on the wrong side of the turnover battle. And on top of that if you can't run, you are screwed.

If we do not find a way to run the ball and take some pressure off of Brees, this season is just going to be a replay of '07-'08. Running the ball better and shaving 10-15 pass attempts off of Drew's game will also reduce the INTs.

 

[Bespoke]

This says it all.

As much a passing league as it is, you still have to be able to run the ball and stay on the plus side of the turnover ratio to win. That was the formula that got us to the Super Bowl. It's really, really simple.

Brees is a phenomenal QB, but when you throw 45 times a game, you up the turnovers and get on the wrong side of the turnover battle. And on top of that if you can't run, you are screwed.

If we do not find a way to run the ball and take some pressure off of Brees, this season is just going to be a replay of '07-'08. Running the ball better and shaving 10-15 pass attempts off of Drew's game will also reduce the INTs.

I think the Coaching staff is well aware of this and they are actively trying to establish a solid running game, early in games. However for whatever reason we just have not been effective with the running game, part of it is the Offensive line just is not performing and executing at the level they need to be, and part of it might be obvious personnel groupings and lack of self scouting that lead to us tipping our hands to the Defense alerting them to when we're going to Run the ball... but eh the best Rushing teams ram it down others teams throats even when they know they are running.

Physicality, and running the ball is a Mindset you need establish. Maybe the limit on the amount of Practices in Pads you can hold is effecting our guys Physicality? I don't know but nastiness is something we lack right now up front and it needs to be taught.

 

[St. Widge]

This says it all.

As much a passing league as it is, you still have to be able to run the ball and stay on the plus side of the turnover ratio to win. That was the formula that got us to the Super Bowl. It's really, really simple.

Brees is a phenomenal QB, but when you throw 45 times a game, you up the turnovers and get on the wrong side of the turnover battle. And on top of that if you can't run, you are screwed.

If we do not find a way to run the ball and take some pressure off of Brees, this season is just going to be a replay of '07-'08. Running the ball better and shaving 10-15 pass attempts off of Drew's game will also reduce the INTs.

Nobody is saying that we don't need to run the ball better. What is in dispute is that we just need to run it more and suddenly our offensive line problems will be solved. That's total BS. Yes, we need to be efficient in the running game and be able to run the ball when we need to, but there is no magic number of carries or yardage total that is required to win.

In short, the problem is not that we only run the ball 20 times per game. The problem is that when we run the ball, we only gain around 3 yards per carry. The result of running for say 4 yards per carry is that we would end up running the ball more because we would have the lead more and be able to move the ball on the ground without having to always resort to the passing game.

 

[Bespoke]

Nobody is saying that we don't need to run the ball better. What is in dispute is that we just need to run it more and suddenly our offensive line problems will be solved. That's total BS. Yes, we need to be efficient in the running game and be able to run the ball when we need to, but there is no magic number of carries or yardage total that is required to win.

In short, the problem is not that we only run the ball 20 times per game. The problem is that when we run the ball, we only gain around 3 yards per carry. The result of running for say 4 yards per carry is that we would end up running the ball more because we would have the lead more and be able to move the ball on the ground without having to always resort to the passing game.

Well said, Even if you run the ball more that doesn't necessarily mean you will be more effective running the ball. Key word being effectiveness. If we came out with philosophy of nothing but Run,Run,Run.. we'd see a lot of 3 & outs... Sure our Rushing attempts will go up, and Drew's Interception numbers would go down, but our Points per game, and Yards per game would drastically go down.

Part of the reason we Pass so much, is because we just can't run the ball very well early in games, and in games where we end up being down or in a shootout. Situation dictates that you Pass more often. A lot of the times we end up with 3rd & 10 or longer because of unsuccesful run attempts on 1st & 2nd downs.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I just checked profootball reference of all Brees games as a Saint with over 40 pass attempts this is his year by year record.

2006 1-3
2007 2-7
2008 2-6
2009 2-1
2010 6-2
2011 3-3

Since when is 16-22 over 70% losing.

 

[blackadder]

I just checked profootball reference of all Brees games as a Saint with over 40 pass attempts this is his year by year record.

2006 1-3
2007 2-7
2008 2-6
2009 2-1
2010 6-2
2011 3-3

Since when is 16-22 over 70% losing.

Since when is 16-22 winning?

 

[blackadder]

Well said, Even if you run the ball more that doesn't necessarily mean you will be more effective running the ball. Key word being effectiveness. If we came out with philosophy of nothing but Run,Run,Run.. we'd see a lot of 3 & outs... Sure our Rushing attempts will go up, and Drew's Interception numbers would go down, but our Points per game, and Yards per game would drastically go down.

Part of the reason we Pass so much, is because we just can't run the ball very well early in games, and in games where we end up being down or in a shootout. Situation dictates that you Pass more often. A lot of the times we end up with 3rd & 10 or longer because of unsuccesful run attempts on 1st & 2nd downs.

This is true, but 6 years into the Payton era and we had one season where we could man up and run the ball consistently.

Since you can always lean on Brees, I'm not sure the commitment is there to be a better running team. Or at least there is a bias to accepting mediocrity as far as power football goes, since you have excellent finesse to fall back on.

 

[blackadder]

I think the Coaching staff is well aware of this and they are actively trying to establish a solid running game, early in games. However for whatever reason we just have not been effective with the running game, part of it is the Offensive line just is not performing and executing at the level they need to be, and part of it might be obvious personnel groupings and lack of self scouting that lead to us tipping our hands to the Defense alerting them to when we're going to Run the ball... but eh the best Rushing teams ram it down others teams throats even when they know they are running.

Physicality, and running the ball is a Mindset you need establish. Maybe the limit on the amount of Practices in Pads you can hold is effecting our guys Physicality? I don't know but nastiness is something we lack right now up front and it needs to be taught.

I don't think the new rules have anything to do with it.

Other than '09 we have been lacking in pure physicality at the line of scrimmage pretty much throughout Payton's tenure. I'm not blaming Payton per se, but I do feel like since he has Brees, he sees it as a little less of a priority to fix. He'll scheme around it, and still be competitive.

But if you want to get over the hump and be a perpetually good team, you need that level of good pure physical football in the trenches. Put Brees together with that and we have a dynasty.

 

[Guitarzan]

If anyone needs any reason to feel that 40+ attempts is prolly not good then look no further than 10 interceptions

 

[blackadder]

If anyone needs any reason to feel that 40+ attempts is prolly not good then look no further than 10 interceptions

Bingo.

And, personally, that's why I think Charmichael kept running the ball late last week, trying to finally break one. I think his playcalling was influenced by all this. And I think the Pick 6 backed up the choices.

 

[St. PJ]

1. San Diego's exclusion from the '10 playoffs had nothing to do with their ability to run the ball. You can't just throw out random events to argue your point. The Chargers missed the playoff because they were awful on special teams and were poorly-coached. Neither of which apply to what we're discussing.

2. Our two worst rushing games this year (Tampa, STL) have been, mostly, without the services of Payton's playcalling. It seems like a huge stretch to assign blame to him because we had a terrible game last week.

3. In the '09 NFCCG and Super Bowl (the two most important games in franchise history), we rushed for 68 and 51 yards, respectively. That didn't stop us from winning in the postseason, did it?

Again, my point is that all of this conjecture about Coach Payton's ability to call plays is ridiculous. And again, the whole reason we're even having this discussion is precisely because Payton has not been calling the plays.

1. It is relavant when you use "the past 5 years" as your argument. The point is that stats do not tell the full story-- more on that with the rebuttal of point 3.

2. I am assigning blame to Payton NOT because of the last few games, but due to his play calling (as it pertains to the running game) all year-- specifically on 3rd and short, on first down (the Saints are last in the NFL @ running on 1st down), in the red-zone and goaline, and particularly, the personennel he uses when making those calls. In short, it's predictable.

3. The two games you cite do more to prove the overall point I am trying to make. Consider that while the Saints didn't run the ball that much in each of those games, the opposing defense respected the run and played our offense differently than if they expected pass only. By comparison, the Saints didn't respect the Colts rushing attack and dared Peyton Manning to run it-- betting that in a close SB he'd try to win the MVP with his arm to further his legacy and put to rest the argument from 2006 that his RB's were more qualified for it. In essence, they bet on Manning's ego and dropped everyone in coverage, and despite the fact that Addai had a very good first half, Manning ignored the rushing game in the second half and lost the game due to a pick 6.

My point is that if the Saints have a few games that they win on the run alone, like they did against the Jets and Bills in 2009; if the Saints PROVE they can pick up the tough yardage and milk the clock in a close game, then defense HAVE to respect the now viable running threat and play the pass more honestly. Currently, that viable threat doesn't exist and defenses are hedging their bets.