Brees 70%+ loss rate when he has more than 40 attempted throws (1 Viewer)

[sammymvpknight]

If you need to pass the ball 40+ times, chances are that you are down and playing catchup, or have an ineffective running game. This idea of just running the ball is overly simplistic. As horrible as the Saints have been at running the ball, if they don't air the ball out that percentage could very well be higher than if they became a dedicated run offense. You have to play to your strengths. The problem is that if the Saints come across a team that can defend the pass...the Saints are in trouble because they can't run the ball. Would the Saints game last week have been any different if they ran the ball more? Probably not. They were completely ineffective at running the ball.

 

[djf7288]

Bad thing is we get down in games early and brees has to throw it. We really need to revamp the offense so we can use the run to set up the passing game

 

[Guitarzan]

Bad thing is we get down in games early and brees has to throw it. We really need to revamp the offense so we can use the run to set up the passing game

I really think it's in Sean's philosophy to maverick his way through to a new way of NFL orthodoxy. He's out to turn convention on it's ear. Fine if he can. I just wanna win. I hope that's what he wants. I think maybe he's still prone to getting "a fever".

 

[TheIronSheik]

1. It is relavant when you use "the past 5 years" as your argument. The point is that stats do not tell the full story-- more on that with the rebuttal of point 3.

2. I am assigning blame to Payton NOT because of the last few games, but due to his play calling (as it pertains to the running game) all year-- specifically on 3rd and short, on first down (the Saints are last in the NFL @ running on 1st down), in the red-zone and goaline, and particularly, the personennel he uses when making those calls. In short, it's predictable.

3. The two games you cite do more to prove the overall point I am trying to make. Consider that while the Saints didn't run the ball that much in each of those games, the opposing defense respected the run and played our offense differently than if they expected pass only. By comparison, the Saints didn't respect the Colts rushing attack and dared Peyton Manning to run it-- betting that in a close SB he'd try to win the MVP with his arm to further his legacy and put to rest the argument from 2006 that his RB's were more qualified for it. In essence, they bet on Manning's ego and dropped everyone in coverage, and despite the fact that Addai had a very good first half, Manning ignored the rushing game in the second half and lost the game due to a pick 6.

My point is that if the Saints have a few games that they win on the run alone, like they did against the Jets and Bills in 2009; if the Saints PROVE they can pick up the tough yardage and milk the clock in a close game, then defense HAVE to respect the now viable running threat and play the pass more honestly. Currently, that viable threat doesn't exist and defenses are hedging their bets.

How can you say that Manning ignored the run in the Super Bowl in the 2nd half cost them the game.
The Colts first drive ended in a touchdown and the 2nd drive ended in missed FG. Porter game winning int came on the 3rd drive with less then 4 minutes left. The truth of the matter is in the Super Bowl is the Colts moved the ball up and down the field most of the game and the Saints were able to make a few key plays and also lucked out in the first half.

The reason the Saints could run the ball vs the Bills and Jets was that those teams were not gonna score alot of points so it is much easier to stay patient with the run.

Look at the Colts game the Saints called 37 passes in the first 40 minutes of the game, but if the game had been a shootout instead of a blowout who knows how many passes the Saints would have called.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Since when is 16-22 winning?

Winning 4 out of 9 games when passing over 40 times a game, is different then winning 3 out of 10.

4 of Brees 22 loses were games in which the Saints missed a game winning FG at the end. There were another couple of losses in 08 the Bears and Panthers game where Brees led late drive to give the Saints a lead only for the defence to blow it.

 

[Firecross]

The Saints are 23-1 when having 125 yards rushing, longest streak in the NFL.

 

[Kris]

It comes down to a coaching failure. SP considers the running game to be an annoying necessity and puts minimal effort into practicing, gameplanning or executing it. The results show. When Drew has a bad day the Saints struggle. This is SP's fault pure and simple. For a passing attack you do not need dominant offensive linemen, so the guys we have are perfect for what matters in SP's eyes.

Kris

 

[TheIronSheik]

It comes down to a coaching failure. SP considers the running game to be an annoying necessity and puts minimal effort into practicing, gameplanning or executing it. The results show. When Drew has a bad day the Saints struggle. This is SP's fault pure and simple. For a passing attack you do not need dominant offensive linemen, so the guys we have are perfect for what matters in SP's eyes.

Kris

This is the same thing that I heard about Marino Dolphins and other great passing teams, that they didn't practice running the ball enough. This is one of those myths started by old timers who thinks that football is running the ball and stoping the run.

This is my favorite stat of the Saints season so far. This is how many passes Brees has thrown in the first 3 quarters and in the 4th

GB-31[18]- Loss
Chi-29[8]
Hou-25[19]
Jax-36[8]
Car-32[13]
TB-33[12]-Loss
Ind-35[0]
Stl-23[21]-Loss

In the 5 wins this season Brees throw the ball 31.4 times a game in the first 3 quarters and 9.6 times a game in the 4th quarter. In the 3 games lost Brees had 29.0 passes in the first 3 quarters, and 17 times in the 4th quarter.

 

[boutte]

We don't need to more as much as we need to run better.

 

[St. PJ]

How can you say that Manning ignored the run in the Super Bowl in the 2nd half cost them the game.
.

Very easily. The Saints did not respect the Colts rushing attack. They deliberately dropped 8 in coverage and dared Peyton Manning to run the ball and win that way. In the first half, the Colts took advantage of a purposefully lacking run defense. In the second half, when the rubber met the road, Peyton Manning lost patience with running the ball and tried to win the game on the strength of his arm, despite the fact the Saints were leaving the run open and Addai had 70 yards or so in the first hlaf.

Gregg Williams and the defense bet on Peyton's ego, and they won. The Colts could have easily taken advantage of the Saints having 8 in coverage instead of 8 in the box, but Peyton wanted to win the game (and MVP) with his arm and leave no doubt that this Superbowl win was because of HIM and HIS legacy, unlike 2006 when most felt the MVP should have went to Addai/Rhodes.

Despite the fact that the Saints were not showing concern with stopping the run even AFTER Addai's success. Conversely, the Saints showed they were a top 5 rushing team all season. The Colts defense respected the Saints ability to run, and therefore played them differently on defense. Instead of dropping everyone in coverage like the Saints did for the majority of the game, the Colts left defenders in the box to defend the run. This favored the Saints passing attack, and Drew Brees was able to pick apart a Colts secondary with ease, tying the completion recored in the SB.

Had the Saints not had a viable threat and top 5 success running the ball throughout the season, the Colts would have not respected the Saints ability to run (even when the Saints didn't use that asset very much throughout the course of the game). The Colts weren't very good running the ball throughout that season, but the Saints left it wide open for them, and instead of taking advantage of that strategy, Peyton Manning tried to win in vintage Manning fashion, which played right to the Saints strategy.

When the Giants played the Bills in the SuperBowl, then defensive coordinator for NY Bill Bilicheck told his team before the game "if Thurman Thomas gets 100 yards rushing, we will win the game". Instead of focusing on shutting down Thurman Thomas, they allowed him to have success so that Jim Kelly and his Kgun offense wouldn't exploit their secondary so much. The Saints decided to let the Colts RB's have success, but figured unlike the Bills, Manning wouldn't have patience with the run late in the game, and they played coverage while leaving the run wide open believing Manning would not take advantage of it. The used all their resources to stop Manning, and Manning's ego prevented the Colts form taking advantage of where the Saints left themselves weak.

And that is exactly how I can say that Manning ignored the run in the second half of the SuperBowl and it cost the Colts the win.

 

[St. PJ]

We don't need to more as much as we need to run better.

I agree, and by better, I propose making changes to who runs the ball out of which formations and when. Specifically, more so on first down, not out of the Shotgun with Sproles. Specifically, mixing it up more with Thomas, Ingram, and Ivory-- varying the formations and personnel packages they run out of. It especially needs to be better in the redzone. The Saints have made more trips to the redzone than any other team, but their touchdown % isn't great. Why? because defenders have less field to defend, and everyone knows we want to go to Graham or Colston with the pass, run a draw with Sproles, or ram it down someone's throat with Ingram. This is where it most needs to be mixed up. Here and on 3rd and short.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Very easily. The Saints did not respect the Colts rushing attack. They deliberately dropped 8 in coverage and dared Peyton Manning to run the ball and win that way. In the first half, the Colts took advantage of a purposefully lacking run defense. In the second half, when the rubber met the road, Peyton Manning lost patience with running the ball and tried to win the game on the strength of his arm, despite the fact the Saints were leaving the run open and Addai had 70 yards or so in the first hlaf.

Gregg Williams and the defense bet on Peyton's ego, and they won. The Colts could have easily taken advantage of the Saints having 8 in coverage instead of 8 in the box, but Peyton wanted to win the game (and MVP) with his arm and leave no doubt that this Superbowl win was because of HIM and HIS legacy, unlike 2006 when most felt the MVP should have went to Addai/Rhodes.

Despite the fact that the Saints were not showing concern with stopping the run even AFTER Addai's success. Conversely, the Saints showed they were a top 5 rushing team all season. The Colts defense respected the Saints ability to run, and therefore played them differently on defense. Instead of dropping everyone in coverage like the Saints did for the majority of the game, the Colts left defenders in the box to defend the run. This favored the Saints passing attack, and Drew Brees was able to pick apart a Colts secondary with ease, tying the completion recored in the SB.

Had the Saints not had a viable threat and top 5 success running the ball throughout the season, the Colts would have not respected the Saints ability to run (even when the Saints didn't use that asset very much throughout the course of the game). The Colts weren't very good running the ball throughout that season, but the Saints left it wide open for them, and instead of taking advantage of that strategy, Peyton Manning tried to win in vintage Manning fashion, which played right to the Saints strategy.

When the Giants played the Bills in the SuperBowl, then defensive coordinator for NY Bill Bilicheck told his team before the game "if Thurman Thomas gets 100 yards rushing, we will win the game". Instead of focusing on shutting down Thurman Thomas, they allowed him to have success so that Jim Kelly and his Kgun offense wouldn't exploit their secondary so much. The Saints decided to let the Colts RB's have success, but figured unlike the Bills, Manning wouldn't have patience with the run late in the game, and they played coverage while leaving the run wide open believing Manning would not take advantage of it. The used all their resources to stop Manning, and Manning's ego prevented the Colts form taking advantage of where the Saints left themselves weak.

And that is exactly how I can say that Manning ignored the run in the second half of the SuperBowl and it cost the Colts the win.

You missing one key stat in both games and that is how much each team touched the ball. The Giants had the ball over 40 minutes in the game and still almost lost on a last second FG. That had more to do with the Giants offence having a couple of long drives to control the clock.

In the Super Bowl the Colts had only 8 drives and they lost one to the onside kick.

This is the what the Colts did in the Super Bowl when they had the ball
1. 11 plays 53 yards -FG
2. 11 plays 96 yards-TD
3. 3 plays 6 yards- punt [ 9 yard pass, -3 run, Garcon drop]
4. 3 plays 9 yards- [3 runs 9 yards]
2nd Half
5. 10 plays 76 yards-TD
6. 11 plays 56 yards- missed FG
7. 7 plays 39 yards- int
8. 9 plays 81 yards- downs

The Colts moved the ball up and down the whole game, the Saints had couple of key 3rd down stop that kept them in the game.