Brees 70%+ loss rate when he has more than 40 attempted throws (1 Viewer)

[TheDeuce53]

I think we're missing an obvious correlation... when he throws more than 40 attempts its usually because we NEED to, which means we were probably losing anyway and trying to play catchup... its putting the cart before the horse saying that we lost BECAUSE we threw 40 attempts

Right.. it isn't like we can just magically throw the ball less than 40 times to get the W, it's likely a product of the game situation.

Also, Brees TECHNICALLY threw 40 passes in the Superbowl.. if we count the 2pt conversion throw.

 

[St. Widge]

WRONG!! You keep running and then play action starts working. Once play action starts working running get's up to 4 - 7 yards. It's the giving up too soon on the rush that is killing the team.

Kris

WRONG!!!!!1!1!1!!1 ZOMG


Nobody is going to pay attention to the play action pass if you are running the ball for 3 yards a carry. They will be happy to let you keep doing that. What is killing the offense (If that really applies to this offense when this is just an overreaction to one bad game on offense. And, it happens every time the offense has a bad game) is the inability to efficiently run the ball. If they could average 4 or so yards per carry in the running game they would not be behind and they could run the ball in the second half with the result being that Brees would only end up throwing 35 or so times per game.

 

[St. Widge]

Also, Brees TECHNICALLY threw 40 passes in the Superbowl.. if we count the 2pt conversion throw.

That's unpossible. Everyone knows that if you throw the ball 40 or more times you lose. We may have to give back the Lombardi. :science:

 

[Firecross]

We need to be better upfront on running plays. Drew can't continue to carry the offense without balance and throw it 40+ times per game.

 

[Mamba]

We didn't lose those games because he threw 40+ times. He threw 40+ times because we were losing those games (by a wide margin). Stats are meaningless if you don't know how to interpret them.

 

[Bespoke]

They actually broke this down on Playbook, NFL Network the other night.

The Saints are trying to establish the running game on 1st and 2nd downs but the Offensive Line is just Blocking terribly. Pretty much the TEs, and Tackles are not doing their job in the Run game... Gilmore/Graham both do not establish blocks well, or even cut their guy. The Backside blocks are poor, which leads to backside pursuit getting to our RB... showed Bushrod getting blown up, and Korey Hall was lined up as an extra TE and let his guy right past him to hit the RB.

 

[Blessedog]

The poor run blocking is one of the reasons I am happy to get Dave Thomas back this week and without Gilmore in there we get less predictable because Thomas is a valuable receiving threat.

 

[mt15]

Yes, getting Wendy's back is huge!

 

[fr3sh]

Yes, getting Wendy's back is huge!

I agree. Simple and plain, DT knows how to play football. He does all the little things correct in a very complex offensive system. His impact is usually not seen. He is like the hands of a clock. They aren't moving at all, but you turn your head for a little while and then that hand is at a different number.

 

[lvsaintsfan57]

**** the falcons...

 

[St. PJ]

Pat Kirwan said that the Saints have won their last 23 games when they rush for 150+ yards. Telling stat indeed...

However...

WHen we try to run, and cant because our oline isn't creating any lanes, then we must throw the ball

Last week is a prime example. we ran the ball 20-something times for 50-something yards. Do we continue to run it even though its obvious its not working?

KEep in mind that we have a defense that gives up alot of points so the offense can't be as patient as say... Baltimore... because we don't have their defense.

That's the crux of the issue... Perhaps the Saints need to consider the formation, personnel package, and down and distance tendancies they are running out of. How many times do they line up heavy and throw? How many times do the run out of passing formations? When they run out of passing formations, how many times is it a Daren Sproles draw? When you see a Sproles in the shotgun, do you think "it is probably a draw if it's going to be a run"? When you see the heavy formation with Ingram or Ivory in the backfield, do you believe it will be a run between the tackles?

My point is that the Saints have made it obvious when they are going to run the ball this year. And in years past, they've run right into obvious run blitzes. As good as he was at "self scouting" and breaking tendancies in 2009, we haven't seen much of that this year. Nor have we seen those great half-time adjustments where they disected what the opponent was doing and came out in the second half to exploit it. Nor have we seen the kind of games like the Jets and Bills match-ups of '09 where the Saints made a full committment to the run in order to win against a defense that was holding Drew in check because that was what was needed.

Sure, Drew can throw for 300+ yards all day, and sure, the Saints can run well when they have a big lead (which is why they are ranked 11th in rushing offense). But the question, and the reason for pointing out the stat, is can the Saints run CONSISTENTLY when they NEED to on 3rd and short, in goaline, or when playing against an offense that has Drew's number in a particular game? Can they depend on the running game, or bank on it?

The answer is no, and it has more to do with mentality, philosophy, and committment. I think Payton tries to be too fancy in breaking tendancies that aren't there by using the wrong personnel in the wrong packages at the wrong times to run the ball and abandons it too quick when that doesn't work. Just look at how well the Fortyniners look with the same personnel under Harbaugh. They've made a committment to kick the other guys backside on the line of scrimmage; they've made it a focal point. The Saints have the same talent on BOTH the offensive and defensive lines, but the priority is letting Drew pass the Saints to a lead before turning it over to the run game and letting a defense be efficient once the opponent is one dimensional.

 

[SaintsW1n]

The answer is no, and it has more to do with mentality, philosophy, and committment. I think Payton tries to be too fancy in breaking tendancies that aren't there by using the wrong personnel in the wrong packages at the wrong times to run the ball and abandons it too quick when that doesn't work. Just look at how well the Fortyniners look with the same personnel under Harbaugh. They've made a committment to kick the other guys backside on the line of scrimmage; they've made it a focal point. The Saints have the same talent on BOTH the offensive and defensive lines, but the priority is letting Drew pass the Saints to a lead before turning it over to the run game and letting a defense be efficient once the opponent is one dimensional.

Come on, PJ. This is absurd. Are you really questioning Coach Payton's ability to run the offense? Do you really want us to be more like the 49ers offense? That's just laughable. So should we focus instead on establishing a '60's era Lombardi-style toss sweep strategy?

Coach Payton has established the Saints as the premier offense in the NFL for the past 5+ seasons. Simple as that, and the numbers back it up.

The issues we've seen arise in 2 of the last 3 games are precisely because Payton has NOT been involved.

Had Payton not gotten injured and not passed off his scheming and playcalling duties to Carmichael, I seriously doubt we've even be having this conversation.

 

[lvsaintsfan57]

I bet Drew's 30% winning percentage is better than most QBs when passing over 40 times. It's obvious, as stated through this whole thread, that when you're playing from behind you're going to pass the ball more. The causation is a direct result of the situation here. The Saints are built to play with a lead, though, when they're behind, I'd prefer Drew taking a shot than to just run the offense as if it were 0-0. The Colts and Rams games showed that Charmichael can call an effective vanilla offense, but when adjustments are needed, SP was sorely missed.

 

[St. PJ]

Come on, PJ. This is absurd. Are you really questioning Coach Payton's ability to run the offense? Do you really want us to be more like the 49ers offense? That's just laughable. So should we focus instead on establishing a '60's era Lombardi-style toss sweep strategy?

Coach Payton has established the Saints as the premier offense in the NFL for the past 5+ seasons. Simple as that, and the numbers back it up.

The issues we've seen arise in 2 of the last 3 games are precisely because Payton has NOT been involved.

Had Payton not gotten injured and not passed off his scheming and playcalling duties to Carmichael, I seriously doubt we've even be having this conversation.

San Diego had the best offense AND defense in the NFL last year and didn't make the play-offs. What good is it if you can throw all over someone but not pick up that critical 3rd and short or do well in the red-zone when the opposing defense has less field to defend? In the play-offs, you need to be able to run the ball in those situations. Payton's offense will get the team to the play-offs, but it won't advance far if they don't develop a running game that they can depend upon when it is needed-- like in "four minute offense" when playing a close game and trying not to turn it over or stop the clock.

And yes, I am questioning Payton. I am questioning the timing of some of his running plays, the running back he uses, the formations, the personnel packages, all of it. Even going back to the Green Bay game in week 1, that last play of the game was so obvious because Jimmy Graham had his hand in the dirt-- there was no chance it was a playaction and everyone knew it was going to be Ingram between the tackles. At least leave a little doubt, where maybe it could be a fake, rollout, and pass to Graham dragging to the corner. Many of the Saints running plays this year have been predictable like that last play of the Green Bay game.