Analysis Cap Implications of Keeping and Cutting Derek Carr (78 Viewers)

[Elvis]

I may end up making an excel spreadsheet for the Saints' situation whenever I get some free time like today. Seems to be a perennial topic of debate so it could get some mileage.

The complexity of that excel spreadsheet will be insane, but I wish you luck.

 

[VolSaint]

Culture is overrated. Talented and coaching are far more important.

Carr is only going to take this seem so far. If we stink with him, so be it. But the worse outcome IMO is that we play better than out talent level, somehow eek into the playoffs and don't have the draft capital or cap space for a high impact QB.

Kind like what happened with the Vikings and Kirk Cousins ... it was a bit of fools gold but they've never been legit contenders despite their recent success.

Culture is rated imo, but I think Carr is probably a negative factor when it comes to that culture-building. If we wanna talk about culture, I think that 3-13 season was pretty positive towards the "cultural" posterchild, Detroit.

 

[Stalwart385]

Even if we go ahead and do this, we're still over the cap by $20 mil. We can run it back with Carr but how do we go about getting necessary free agent signings like you were originally saying?

Not trying to argue, genuinely trying to understand your perspective. I can get behind keeping Carr if there's no real negative.

You restructure non-expiring contracts (Granderson, McCoy, etc). I'd make a few cuts (Jamal, Wilson, etc). At that point I'm 10+ mil over the cap. Now you have tons of options, you could clear up to 45+ mil to sign FAs.

I'd go more modest and say clear 20 mil to handle these problems (note qb is not a question mark in this instance). To do that I'll restructure Cam Jordan, just as an example. Note that I'm implying that Carr will be cut in 2026.

2025 Space: 20 mil
2026 Space: 54.5 mil

I had to manually calculate Jordan's escalating void (an extra 14 mil) and cutting Carr (gain 9.5 mil)

 

[Det. Brees]

I can see him being cut and i can see him staying. I wont be upset either way. it all just depends on how the coach wants to build his team for the future.
keep Carr so you can compete now or cut car start Rattler.
If they start Rattler they will draft a better QB next year and develop him for year 3.
I think there is a chance they find another qb that they can start and develop now but that's a outside shot in my opinion.

 

[VolSaint]

The complexity of that excel spreadsheet will be insane, but I wish you luck.

Fun Fact: In addition to excelling in every athletic sport, UT is also International Collegiate Excel World Champions

Spreadsheet Masters: UT wins international Microsoft Excel Collegiate Challenge

The finals of the Microsoft Excel Collegiate Challenge were held in Las Vegas this year, with more than 8,100 participants.

www.wbir.com

(I am absolutely not good enough at excel to be in this team lol, just a fun fact)

 

[Elvis]

Restructuring Carr does not hamper the future like you imply. It's a 30 mil difference at first. Now sit down and work out what all those restructured expiring contracts cost you in 2026. Subtract them from 30. That number is the difference between the two "options". Now act like that number is worth hamstringing yourself in 2025.

In the thread where I laid out my plan, I only restructured 5 players with contracts voiding in 2026. Demario Davis, Tyrann Mathieu, Foster Moreau, Khalen Saunders and JT Gray. Their restructures combined cost $17,734,250 more in 2026 than they would if they were not restructured, $9.5m of which is guaranteed money anyway. Carr's restructure would cost $30,996,000. The other restructured players are under contract beyond the 2026 season. So the difference in cap is space is $13,261,750 for 2026.

Where we disagree though is that making the choice to get rid of Carr "hamstrings" the team. I just don't agree with that premise. I think losing Carr this year is far less detrimental than losing most of those other players for 2025. Splitting Carr's already high dead money between 2025 and 2026 is the best way to reset the roster in 2026. And maybe we also disagree that the roster/cap needs to be reset. I believe it needs to be and I think allowing 2025 to be a lean year is how you do it. And now that the 2025 cap is going up more than anticipated, they have an even better opportunity to get it done now.

 

[VolSaint]

You restructure non-expiring contracts (Granderson, McCoy, etc). I'd make a few cuts (Jamal, Wilson, etc). At that point I'm 10+ mil over the cap. Now you have tons of options, you could clear up to 45+ mil to sign FAs.

I'd go more modest and say clear 20 mil to handle these problems (note qb is not a question mark in this instance). To do that I'll restructure Cam Jordan, just as an example. Note that I'm implying that Carr will be cut in 2026.

2025 Space: 20 mil
2026 Space: 54.5 mil

I had to manually calculate Jordan's escalating void (an extra 14 mil) and cutting Carr (gain 9.5 mil)

If this is the case, it can definitely be viable. But if you go and calculate the differences, you get just under 10 mil through restructuring vets and young building blocks. You can even increase it through resignings. Even if we ignore 2026, I don't understand why planning on moving on from Carr would put us at a serious disadvantage if we determine it's the right move. We will have nearly identical opportunity to sign free agents in both scenarios.

 

[Stalwart385]

In the thread where I laid out my plan, I only restructured 5 players with contracts voiding in 2026. Demario Davis, Tyrann Mathieu, Foster Moreau, Khalen Saunders and JT Gray. Their restructures combined cost $17,734,250 more in 2026 than they would if they were not restructured, $9.5m of which is guaranteed money anyway. Carr's restructure would cost $30,996,000. The other restructured players are under contract beyond the 2026 season. So the difference in cap is space is $13,261,750 for 2026.

Where we disagree though is that making the choice to get rid of Carr "hamstrings" the team. I just don't agree with that premise. I think losing Carr this year is far less detrimental than losing most of those other players for 2025. Splitting Carr's already high dead money between 2025 and 2026 is the best way to reset the roster in 2026. And maybe we also disagree that the roster/cap needs to be reset. I believe it needs to be and I think allowing 2025 to be a lean year is how you do it. And now that the 2025 cap is going up more than anticipated, they have an even better opportunity to get it done now.

I think you are too hung up on Carr. The hamstrung part isn't having the player or not. The hamstrung part is being able to operate your team without cap space. 10 mil in 2026 is not worth hamstringing your team in 2025. You'll have to throw Rattler into the fire without a decent backup QB and with out a team to properly support him because you couldn't afford it.

10mil for 1 year of Carr plus a ton of cap flexibility to build the team isn't exactly what I would call "compromising our future".

The alternative just to save 10 mil next year is unrealistic sacrifice for little return.

 

[St. Geezy]

You are too hung up on Carr. The hamstrung part isn't having the player or not. The hamstrung part is being able to operate your team without cap space. 10 mil in 2026 is not worth hamstringing your team in 2025. You'll have to throw Rattler into the fire without a decent backup QB and with out a team to properly support him because you couldn't afford it.

10mil for 1 year of Carr plus a ton of cap flexibility to build the team isn't exactly what I would call "compromising our future".

The alternative just to save 10 mil next year is unrealistic sacrifice for little return.

Thank you.

I just don't see the benefit in doing so much to get a contract off the books at the cost of what it would cost us. You are effectively intentionally tanking an off-season just to get rid of a market value contract for a player of Carr's tier, for limited benefit, with no real solution in place (and please, no one say Rattler is the solution, and even if he is, he will have the opportunity to prove that with or without Carr on the roster).

 

[Elvis]

You are too hung up on Carr. The hamstrung part isn't having the player or not. The hamstrung part is being able to operate your team without cap space. 10 mil is not worth hamstringing your team in 2025. You'll have to throw Rattler into the fire without a decent backup QB and with out team to support him because you couldn't afford it.

I'm not hung up on Carr. I am hung up with paying him $30m in new money that we immediately have to kick the can on when he isn't going to be the future of this team. Carr was DA's chosen guy and he isn't going to be Kellen Moore's chosen guy at 35 years old and nearing the end of his career.

I'm also hung up with saddling Moore with what's left of Payton and DA's roster in general. A roster that can't stay healthy, is over priced and old. My plan is the quickest way to clearing that out and allowing Moore to choose the players he wants without having to worry about cap implications of old former star players.

Back to QB though. I know your opinion of Rattler isn't high, but I think he shows promise and I'm not alone. Plenty of young QBs start for bad teams as rookies and Rattler will have the benefit of having played in 7 NFL games prior to the start of the 2025 season. All but one of the teams he played against in 2024 were playoff teams and he had to do that with nobody around him. And while playing those games, he made some great throws, extended plays with his legs and looked calm the entire time. 3 of the 5 teams Carr won games against are picking before us in this years draft and not a single one made the playoffs. It's not as cut and dry as you make it out to be.

 

[CowtownSaint]

The only way to move forward correctly is to move on from Carr. Sorry no hold over. We have to face the reality and take a gulp and move forward.

There is a lot of talk that Carr wasn’t at fault because of injuries, yet people with that take are the most staunch in the Rattler Ain’t It Category as well. The problem with that, is we have no clue if he can play at a starting level with starting players, because he hasn’t had a chance yet. Carr gets the excuse but he doesn’t? That doesn’t make sense.

It seems cutting Car helps us in long term if we look at a 5 year plan. I don’t understand the tank aspect people are saying. At some point there is going to be a reset, otherwise your just taking the same approach as the last 4 seasons and look how pathetic they have been.

A hard reset for a season, where you actually see if Rattler can be the guy is the right choice. It’s a Win - Win. If he proves he can be the guy, that means we can use a pick on another player to add to the team. If he can’t be the guy, then we likely will be positioned very well to draft the following season.

At the end of the day you have to decide what to do at QB it is the most important position in the game. Running it back with Carr and maybe winning 7 games, is more of the same old same old approach that has gotten us to this point.

It’s a new staff. We need a new direction. End of story. The only way you can decide how to move forward is seeing what you have and continually identifying needs to address. Carr does not help us if we look at building this team up over the course of 5 years. Keeping him will only hinder the progress.

 

[Stalwart385]

I'm not hung up on Carr. I am hung up with paying him $30m in new money that we immediately have to kick the can on when he isn't going to be the future of this team. Carr was DA's chosen guy and he isn't going to be Kellen Moore's chosen guy at 35 years old and nearing the end of his career.

I'm also hung up with saddling Moore with what's left of Payton and DA's roster in general. A roster that can't stay healthy, is over priced and old. My plan is the quickest way to clearing that out and allowing Moore to choose the players he wants without having to worry about cap implications of old former star players.

Back to QB though. I know your opinion of Rattler isn't high, but I think he shows promise and I'm not alone. Plenty of young QBs start for bad teams as rookies and Rattler will have the benefit of having played in 7 NFL games prior to the start of the 2025 season. All but one of the teams he played against in 2024 were playoff teams and he had to do that with nobody around him. And while playing those games, he made some great throws, extended plays with his legs and looked calm the entire time. 3 of the 5 teams Carr won games against are picking before us in this years draft and not a single one made the playoffs. It's not as cut and dry as you make it out to be.

That 30mil in new money is offset by expiring contracts you'll have to restructure. You pay it one way or a other. May as well keep Carr and have flexibility in 2025. You could still start Rattler if he's good enough anyway.

 

[Stalwart385]

The only way to move forward correctly is to move on from Carr. Sorry no hold over. We have to face the reality and take a gulp and move forward.

There is a lot of talk that Carr wasn’t at fault because of injuries, yet people with that take are the most staunch in the Rattler Ain’t It Category as well. The problem with that, is we have no clue if he can play at a starting level with starting players, because he hasn’t had a chance yet. Carr gets the excuse but he doesn’t? That doesn’t make sense.

It seems cutting Car helps us in long term if we look at a 5 year plan. I don’t understand the tank aspect people are saying. At some point there is going to be a reset, otherwise your just taking the same approach as the last 4 seasons and look how pathetic they have been.

A hard reset for a season, where you actually see if Rattler can be the guy is the right choice. It’s a Win - Win. If he proves he can be the guy, that means we can use a pick on another player to add to the team. If he can’t be the guy, then we likely will be positioned very well to draft the following season.

At the end of the day you have to decide what to do at QB it is the most important position in the game. Running it back with Carr and maybe winning 7 games, is more of the same old same old approach that has gotten us to this point.

It’s a new staff. We need a new direction. End of story. The only way you can decide how to move forward is seeing what you have and continually identifying needs to address. Carr does not help us if we look at building this team up over the course of 5 years. Keeping him will only hinder the progress.

It's a misconception that cutting Carr is needed to get the cap in order. Restructuring him is actually the most financially prudent move. Being so tight against the cap it just works out that way. 2026 is the year it makes sense. Thats the full reset year.

 

[Elvis]

That 30mil in new money is offset by expiring contracts you'll have to restructure. You pay it one way or a other. May as well keep Carr and have flexibility in 2025. You could still start Rattler if he's good enough anyway.

No, it's $30m in can kicked money that won't be going toward replacing those players with expiring contracts in 2026 because it was wasted on Carr during a transition year. That makes zero sense to me. And you suggesting keeping Carr just to start Rattler anyway is all I need to hear to know this back and forth is going nowhere. That is maybe the craziest thing I've heard suggested in any discussion about the future of our QB position.

 

[Nolan]

It's a misconception that cutting Carr is needed to get the cap in order. Restructuring him is actually the most financially prudent move. Being so tight against the cap it just works out that way. 2026 is the year it makes sense. Thats the full reset year.

If 2026 is the full reset year, why do we even need to spend any money in 2025? Why wouldn't we just get a 1 year head start on the reset and have cleaner books in 2027 and beyond? I just don't understand the thinking behind "lets do stuff in 2025" if 2026 is when you theoretically want to full reset anyway.