Analysis Cap Implications of Keeping and Cutting Derek Carr (28 Viewers)

[soggymoss84]

I'm not saying that you're saying he would.

I'm just saying it will never happen. He has a NTC and refused to help the Raiders via trade, he will do the same for us.

Carr is in a different place now than he was at the end of the Raiders stint. He has 2 years and 90 million left on his current contract, at the end of his Raiders stint he had 2 years and something like 40 million left. He stood to make more money than that as a free agent, he won’t make more than his current contract if he hits free agency now though, he would be losing millions if he gets let go from his current contract.

I think 9-8 (or better) with a first round playoff exit with a first year head coach stepping into a not ideal situation is exactly what you want to see and it is why I prefer the "Carr for a year" approach. Set up this season to be a possible springboard season rather than a potential throwaway season. We have a culture to fix, and it isn't going to get done with another 5-12.

I think we have the pieces to field a good, competitive team if Moore and his staff are the real deal and we have a good off-season.

Then you still have no franchise QB and have to burn through your draft picks for the next three years to trade up for that QB. Cut bait now, show the team that mediocre is not ok nor will it be accepted.

 

[Stalwart385]

If 2026 is the full reset year, why do we even need to spend any money in 2025? Why wouldn't we just get a 1 year head start on the reset and have cleaner books in 2027 and beyond? I just don't understand the thinking behind "lets do stuff in 2025" if 2026 is when you theoretically want to full reset anyway.

It gives you 2 years to rebuild your roster instead of sitting on your hands for a year and trying to accomplish everything in 1 year.

 

[CowtownSaint]

It's a misconception that cutting Carr is needed to get the cap in order. Restructuring him is actually the most financially prudent move. Being so tight against the cap it just works out that way. 2026 is the year it makes sense. Thats the full reset year.

In my opinion it’s about more than just money

 

[SuperSaint]

The Fox 8 Overtime podcast broke it down pretty well a few days ago.

The long and short of it is, if they keep Carr and restructure him, they still have to make 9 other moves to get compliant, but they can do that without touching any of the aging vet deals, if they cut Carr, that number jumps to 16 moves and that would mean restructuring all of the aging vet deals.

It's coming up fast, less than 3 weeks left to get all this done. They're between a rock and a hard place, whatever they decide.

Here's the link to that episode if anyone's interested.

 

[Nolan]

It gives you 2 years to rebuild your roster instead of sitting on your hands for a year and trying to accomplish everything in 1 year.

That doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Keeping Carr when you know that you're going to rebuild in 2026 equates to sitting on your hands.

Cutting Carr and starting the rebuild now doesn't mean that we'd be trying to accomplish everything in 1 year. All it does is set a more clear path to cleaner books in the years that we'd be ready to compete. The only priority should be to get from underneath the contract of the vet QB who you know isn't the future, and don't restructure/extend anyone whose last name is Davis, Mathieu, or Jordan.

 

[Clintonrebel]

Great post from what a surmise from comments. Is there a cliff noted version?

 

[VolSaint]

Great post from what a surmise from comments. Is there a cliff noted version?

If we restructure Carr, we can pretty much keep the same squad but have a potential horrible cap situation in the future. If we release Carr, we will have around the same amount of cap space now, but a much better outlook 2026.

Basically:
Keep Carr -> Kick can down the road
Release Carr -> Out by 2026

 

[DSnfla]

You can try to belittle people that disagree with you by calling them "arm chair gm" all you want, but recent history tells a different story. We haven't been doing it and likely will not again. We are going to be thin until we stop kicking the can, which is what you want to do by restructuring Carr. If he's fully restructured he will cost $60m in dead cap to cut next year or a $69m cap number to keep. That isn't going to happen for a mediocre QB unless you're desperate to win the worst division in the NFL. DA would have been that desperate, Kellen Moore has no need to be in his first year.

How in the world is calling people on here "Arm Chair GMs" belittling them?? That's exactly what we are all doing when we use OTC or any cap site. Just like we are arm chair draft gurus when we use a mock simulator

 

[texasjefe]

We can not save any money by cutting expensive vets pre-June 1st due to their dead money outweighing their current cap hit if cut.

Thanks for your analysis and cool avatar!

I thank you for mentioning the quoted part because it is a nuance that helps reflect when the cap management went from unwise to toxic. I've ranted enough on Loomis, and with the eventual leaving of all these vets whenever, this toxic element will be gone and hopefully never repeated again.

Regarding Carr, the league year starts in about 21 days so the MOMENT OF TRUTH is imminent. Hopefully it comes next week so we can all speedo mudwrestle on tequila over whatever the decision is.

 

[texasjefe]

How in the world is calling people on here "Arm Chair GMs" belittling them?? That's exactly what we are all doing when we use OTC or any cap site. Just like we are arm chair draft gurus when we use a mock simulator

I hired with my own money earned from some substitute teaching as a semi-retiree an expert team of human and AI robot researchers to vet your claims.

They sent back a verdict:

This is a message board where people express opinions

Good news for you, they did say that an estimated 92% of posts here are indeed made by people in chairs with resting arms, so BINGO BONGO BANGO baby!

 

[StudioSaint]

I'm also hung up with saddling Moore with what's left of Payton and DA's roster in general.

How can a person think they speak for someone they've never spoken too? Some see Carr staying as saddling Moore. Just because they see it that way, it doesn't mean Moore does too.

My plan is the quickest way to clearing that out and allowing Moore to choose the players he wants...

Moore is going to choose the players he wants. He doesn't need a plan or approval from anyone here to choose the players he wants. He'll tell Loomis who he wants and Loomis will do everything he can to get those players. Loomis is actually very good at that.

I see a lot of fans projecting their beliefs and opinions onto Moore, as if Moore automatically thinks the same way they do and has the same goals as they do.

Moore got where he has without the help of anyone here on this board. He doesn't need any of us to be looking out for him, especially since none of us can actually do anything to help him.

And while playing those games, he made some great throws, extended plays with his legs and looked calm the entire time.

That's factually inaccurate. Rattler was rattled several times, like that time he inexplicably hopped right into a sack.

It's not as cut and dry as you make it out to be.

And things are not as cut and dry as you keep trying to make them out to be.

 

[StudioSaint]

That 30mil in new money is offset by expiring contracts you'll have to restructure. You pay it one way or a other. May as well keep Carr and have flexibility in 2025. You could still start Rattler if he's good enough anyway.

I think the people who are very adamant about cutting Carr and starting Rattler want Rattler to be the starter first and foremost. I think even they know that if Carr's on the team he starts over Rattler, so that's why they want Carr cut.

They want to clear Carr out of the way and just anoint Rattler the starter without him having to compete for it. Even they know, Rattler wouldn't be able to beat out Carr this year.

 

[Taker597]

This all you really need...

But it's missing two things.




The void hits. And that if you restructure... The money you're restructuring is the $30 million base salary and the $10 million roster bonus.

Which will essentially bring 2026 Dead cap up to... $43 million if I'm correct.

Same spot this year or next. Waste $40 million dollar just doesn't make sense in a rebuild.

 

[VolSaint]

I think the people who are very adamant about cutting Carr and starting Rattler want Rattler to be the starter first and foremost. I think even they know that if Carr's on the team he starts over Rattler, so that's why they want Carr cut.

They want to clear Carr out of the way and just anoint Rattler the starter without him having to compete for it. Even they know, Rattler wouldn't be able to beat out Carr this year.

As a Rattler defender, I wanna say now that if there were no cap issues I would support open competition heading into 2025 with Carr as starter if he was the better quarterback. However, the thought pattern in the pro cut Carr camp is that the margin of improved play with Carr over Rattler is significantly less valuable than avoiding long term structural issues we would bare with a Carr restructure. Claiming people who support cutting Carr just have a hate boner is completely unproductive towards anyone's understanding.

 

[StudioSaint]

Claiming people who support cutting Carr just have a hate boner is completely unproductive towards anyone's understanding.

The word hate gets thrown about too quickly and too lazily. That's why nothing I said had anything to do with anyone hating anyone else.