Analysis Cap Implications of Keeping and Cutting Derek Carr (16 Viewers)

[Bill]

No, I'm not saying commit to Carr...
Carr can be released next June & not be as nearly of a salary cap hit as this year...

That's fine... and it may happen that way. In fact, I actually believe that we would win more games with Carr as our starter than without him. But to me this seems to be an issue of 'when will the rebuild really/actually/finally begin'. Perhaps Moore feels that Carr can run his style offense better than any of the guys waiting in the wings. If that's true, by all means keep him around. I really don't see Carr as being our biggest issue to winning football games. However, if the Saints are keeping him solely with the idea that it's less expensive to put off the rebuild for another year or two, it sort of feels like we are back to square one if we're not planning to keep Carr long term.

The Saints coaches are soon going to learn a lot about what is salvageable from our squad before the season starts. They will almost certainly have a game plan as to how they want to move on from the post-Allen talent & regime. But the elephant in the room is how to make this Moore's team as quickly as possible (with an aging roster and no cap money available) without having to kick these bloated contracts farther down the road into the future. If we are able to make some deals that can get us a little cap relief now and/or some additional draft picks for the future without adding a lot more dead money to our payroll, I'm all for it! I don't need to win now.

 

[Elvis]

I hope VolSaint doesn't mind me putting this here instead of my older thread that has gone to page two and used old numbers from before the new projected cap increase was announced. If he does, I'll move this to my old thread.

A brand new scenario inspired by Rouxble and Taker597. This is the best one yet, but requires some cooperation from Derek Carr. Let me explain.

Carr has a $10m roster bonus that is already guaranteed for 2025. It’s his. He has NO other guaranteed money unless he is still on the roster on March 15th. However, he also has offsets in his contract which would mean if he were cut and he then signed with another team, any 2025 earnings from his new team up to $10m would come back to us and off of our cap. So the idea that Rouxble and Taker597 have talked about, and I'm adding to, is basically bribing Carr with an additional $5m in guaranteed money to lower his base salary to the amount of the bribe, us waiving the offset so we can’t take back the $10m and then be cut with a June 1 designation. This would lower his pre-June 1 cap number to $26,458,000. I don’t believe we’d gain anything back after June 1 under this scenario because all of that money would be fully guaranteed this year, but his remaining years of prorated bonus would be dead money in 2026 which amounts to $28,674,000.

So this is what it would look like.

Renegotiate and Cut

Player (Cap Savings)

Derek Carr ($25m)


Restructures

Player (Cap Savings)

Erik McCoy ($6.7m)
Cesar Ruiz ($6.4m)
Carl Grandson ($5.2m)
Alvin Kamara ($1.4m)
Pete Werner ($2.5m)
Rashid Shaheed ($2.1m)

Cuts

Player (Cap Savings)

Jamal Williams ($1.23m)
Cedrick Wilson ($2.4m)

These moves alone bring the team to $6,055,630 below the cap for 2025 with far less additional cap implications for 2026 as none of the restructured players have expiring contracts in 2026. In addition, the team could get additional space by:

1. Designate one other player, an older one like Cam, Demario, Taysom or Tyrann, a June 1 cut and split their money between both years and gain some back in June.

2. Get a player or two to take a pay cut to stay with the team, Cam, Taysom, etc.

3. Extend younger players to lower their 2025 cap number, such as Alontae Taylor and Chris Olave.

4. Cut defensive players that may not be a good fit for the new defensive scheme, such as Khalen Saunders and Nate Shepherd.

5. Extend Chase Young and/or Juwan Johnson to avoid their void years from hitting in 2025.

_____________________________________________________________

This all obviously all hinges on Carr accepting that deal, but I can’t see him giving up $15m in new money that can’t be taken back if he was going to be cut anyway and had to give back up to $10m because of offsets. Carr could then sign another 3 year contract with new guaranteed money with another team and be far better off than he is right now.

It’s just a good business decision for everyone involved. And for the Saints, this is the best anyone could hope for to successfully get the cap back in order by next year and begin rebuilding the roster for the future.

 

[VolSaint]

I hope VolSaint doesn't mind me putting this here instead of my older thread that has gone to page two and used old number from before the new projected cap increase was announced. If he does, I'll move this to my old thread.

A brand new scenario inspired by Rouxble and Taker597. This is the best one yet, but requires some cooperation from Derek Carr. Let me explain.

Carr has a $10m roster bonus that is already guaranteed for 2025. It’s his. He has NO other guaranteed money unless he is still on the roster on March 15th. However, he also has offsets in his contract which would mean if he were cut and he then signed with another team, any 2025 earnings from his new team up to $10m would come back to us and off of our cap. So the idea that Rouxble and Taker597 have talked about, and I'm adding to, is basically bribing Carr with an additional $5m in guaranteed money to lower his base salary to the amount of the bribe, waiving the offset, so we can’t take back the $10m and then be cut with a June 1 designation. This would lower his pre-June 1 cap number to $26,458,000. I don’t believe we’d gain anything back after June 1 under this scenario because all of that money would be fully guaranteed this year, but his remaining years of prorated bonus would be dead money in 2026 which amounts to $28,674,000.

So this is what it would look like.

Renegotiate and Cut

Player (Cap Savings)

Derek Carr ($25m)


Restructures

Player (Cap Savings)

Erik McCoy ($6.7m)
Cesar Ruiz ($6.4m)
Carl Grandson ($5.2m)
Alvin Kamara ($1.4m)
Pete Werner ($2.5m)
Rashid Shaheed ($2.1m)

Cuts

Player (Cap Savings)

Jamal Williams ($1.23m)
Cedrick Wilson ($2.4m)

These moves alone bring the team to $6,055,630 below the cap for 2025 with far less additional cap implications for 2026 as none of the restructured players have expiring contracts in 2026. In addition, the team could get additional space by:

1. Designate one other player, an older one like Cam, Demario, Taysom or Tyrann, a June 1 cut and split their money between both years and gain some back in June.

2. Get a player or two to take a pay cut to stay with the team, Cam, Taysom, etc.

3. Extend younger players to lower their 2025 cap number, such as Alontae Taylor and Chris Olave.

4. Cut defensive players that may not be a good fit for the new defensive scheme, such as Khalen Saunders and Nate Shepherd.

5. Extend Chase Young and/or Juwan Johnson to avoid their void years from hitting in 2025.

_____________________________________________________________

This all obviously all hinges on Carr accepting that deal, but I can’t see him giving up $15m in new money that can’t be taken back if he was going to be cut anyway and had to give back up to $10m because of offsets. Carr could then sign another 3 year contract with new guaranteed money with another team and be far better off than he is right now.

It’s just a good business decision for everyone involved. And for the Saints, this is the best anyone could hope for to successfully get the cap back in order by next year and begin rebuilding the roster for the future.

There's no problem at all. I was lowkey trying to consolidate most of the cap discussion into a single thread considering how spread out a lot of the discussion was over the board. It's a lot easier to understand what we can do when it's all in one place.

This would most def be the best scenario imo. Could have our cake and eat it too with getting immediate and future cap room without having to restructure expensive vets. Would allow Moore to construct his team vision as soon as possible.

I do have a gut feeling it won't end up going this smoothly, but here's to hoping it does.

 

[Elvis]

There's no problem at all. I was lowkey trying to consolidate most of the cap discussion into a single thread considering how spread out a lot of the discussion was over the board. It's a lot easier to understand what we can do when it's all in one place.

This would most def be the best scenario imo. Could have our cake and eat it too with getting immediate and future cap room without having to restructure expensive vets. Would allow Moore to construct his team vision as soon as possible.

I do have a gut feeling it won't end up going this smoothly, but here's to hoping it does.

I don't think it would be that hard to get this deal done honestly. If he is cut, some team is going to give him another contract that pays him more than $10m in new money between signing bonus and 1st year salary. That would all come back to us if he didn't do this deal. But if he did take the deal he could take the $15m with him and keep everything that he gets from the new team. It's just a smart financial decision and he would be crazy to turn it down.

 

[texasjefe]

SZN

LFG

​

 

[StudioSaint]

End of the day, it's not about Rattler vs. Carr when thinking about cutting him, it's about the long term structure of the Saints and getting to a playoff window as soon as possible.

That's true for some people, but it's not true for others.

I think the quickest path to a playoff window is with Carr or an even better QB with experience. We shall soon find out what Moore thinks, because the Saints and Moore will be shooting for the playoffs this year. They aren't going to take a mulligan for this year.

 

[CowtownSaint]

That's true for some people, but it's not true for others.

I think the quickest path to a playoff window is with Carr or an even better QB with experience. We shall soon find out what Moore thinks, because the Saints and Moore will be shooting for the playoffs this year. They aren't going to take a mulligan for this year.

I just don’t understand your sentiment. What evidence do you have that Carr gives us a playoff window? Not just here but in his entire career? There are a decade of facts that basically prove the odds that he make the playoffs be slim to none.

Also where are we affording a better QB without freeing up cap space the next couple years? At the end of the day it sounds like you just simply don’t want to evaluate either back up QB nor do you feel drafting one is worth it. Your sentiment seems to be one of not even analyzing the existing depth we have, it’s puzzling for a guy wanting a playoff window.

 

[StudioSaint]

I just don’t understand your sentiment. What evidence do you have that Carr gives us a playoff window? Not just here but in his entire career? There are a decade of facts that basically prove the odds that he make the playoffs be slim to none.

Wins and losses result from a lot of factors, the play of the QB is just one of those factors. When a player switches teams or gets a new head coach, the past records of the teams they played on is not a reasonable indicator of how they will do with the new team or coach.

Just like playing the best RB, WR, TE and linemen give the team the best chance of winning, playing the best QB on the roster gives the team best chance of winning.

Carr is currently the best QB on the roster. The Saints were able to win games with an injury depleted offense last year when Carr played. They didn't win a single game without him.

So, I think Carr gives the Saints the best chance of having a playoff window this year. What I think is irrelevant, because what Moore thinks is the only thing that matters. Whatever he decides is how it's going to be and that's good enough for me.

Also where are we affording a better QB without freeing up cap space the next couple years?

I'm not concerned at all about cap space. Loomis has demonstrated year in and year out, he is always thinking ahead with his contracts and that he always has options that repeaters and fans don't know that he has.

At the end of the day it sounds like you just simply don’t want to evaluate either back up QB...

I have no problem with the Saints evaluating Haener and Rattler. They'd be remiss if they haven't been evaluating them all this time.

The Saints don't have to starter Haener or Rattler, before they are ready to start, to evaluate them. The idea that they have to start one of them to evaluate them is a flawed assumption. Any logical conclusion founded on that false assumption is logically flawed as well.

...nor do you feel drafting one is worth it.

I don't get caught up in all the draft speculation and prognostication, so I have no problem with the Saints drafting a QB. If they draft one, then they clearly think he was worth the draft pick. That's good enough for me.

Your sentiment seems to be one of not even analyzing the existing depth we have, it’s puzzling for a guy wanting a playoff window.

You don't have to start a player to evaluate a player. That should clear things up for you.

 

[CowtownSaint]

Wins and losses result from a lot of factors, the play of the QB is just one of those factors. When a player switches teams or gets a new head coach, the past records of the teams they played on is not a reasonable indicator of how they will do with the new team or coach.

Just like playing the best RB, WR, TE and linemen give the team the best chance of winning, playing the best QB on the roster gives the team best chance of winning.

Carr is currently the best QB on the roster. The Saints were able to win games with an injury depleted offense last year when Carr played. They didn't win a single game without him.

So, I think Carr gives the Saints the best chance of having a playoff window this year. What I think is irrelevant, because what Moore thinks is the only thing that matters. Whatever he decides is how it's going to be and that's good enough for me.


I'm not concerned at all about cap space. Loomis has demonstrated year in and year out, he is always thinking ahead with his contracts and that he always has options that repeaters and fans don't know that he has.


I have no problem with the Saints evaluating Haener and Rattler. They'd be remiss if they haven't been evaluating them all this time.

The Saints don't have to starter Haener or Rattler, before they are ready to start, to evaluate them. The idea that they have to start one of them to evaluate them is a flawed assumption. Any logical conclusion founded on that false assumption is logically flawed as well.


I don't get caught up in all the draft speculation and prognostication, so I have no problem with the Saints drafting a QB. If they draft one, then they clearly think he was worth the draft pick. That's good enough for me.


You don't have to start a player to evaluate a player. That should clear things up for you.

Here’s my take on the starting to evaluate thing. Your approach is the approach of what a university student excepts to happen once getting their degree. They have the piece of paper but it doesn’t mean they can actually succeed in their chosen industry, that comes with applying the things they learned to get the last piece of paper. In relation to this situation, nothing compared to real live game snaps when it comes to evaluating.

Just as it’s easy to learn something in a book, applying that knowledge is a completely
Different story.

Now circling back to Carr, you mentioned he will be able to give us a playoff window. In your reply to me you said he won with injuries. In the last two years has he beat a team with a winning record? Injuries or not, just because the guy has more experience in the league, doesn’t mean he will be best on the roster this upcoming season. Carr affords purgatory wins, not enough to get to playoffs let alone deep, and just enough to take us out of top 10 draft picks. That’s purgatory to me and 100% there is correlation with him and not making playoffs all these years.

Finally, you did say that it’s not all the QB. The same argument can be applied to someone like Rattler, who was working with some guys picked up from the couch to come in and try and start in the NFL. You can’t say Carr is better than his record because of injuries and in next breath say Rattler hasn’t shown anything, while dealing with same depth issues.

I would make 100% argument that Rattler gives the team a better chance to win based on demeanour alone. Even if it’s just for a year, no matter what happens, this Saints team will be better off in 2026 if we start Rattler or someone other than Carr. It will provide clarity and perspective.

I can’t stress this enough, we need to stop being in denial, the playoff window is CLOSED, until we address our cap, our depth and our QB problem and yes we have a QB problem because it’s severely effecting our cap and he’s a hold over from a previous regime.

 

[StudioSaint]

Here’s my take on the starting to evaluate thing. Your approach is the approach of what a university student excepts to happen once getting their degree.

That's objectively false and a flawed metaphorical comparison. The Saints, like all NFL teams, evaluate every player on the roster all the time, but they don't start all of them.

Or to put it another way, every NFL team evaluates every player they have, regardless of if they start or not.

Now circling back to Carr, you mentioned he will be able to give us a playoff window.

I said the best chance of the QB's currently on the roster. You're not replying to what I actually said.

Nothing any team does can guarantee they will make the playoffs. No team has complete control over that. What they do have control over is building the best team they can to give themselves the best chance at the playoffs.

The Saints could go 0-17 this year and then pick the best QB candidate in next year's draft. From there, that QB could end up a complete bust or sustain an injury their rookie year that they don't fully come back from.

No strategy is guaranteed to work and no team knows what needs they will have two seasons from now. You build the beast team you can now giving significant consideration to the future.

Getting the top pick in the draft to get one of the top QB's has not worked out as much as it has. A team does not have to have a top 10 QB pick to get a QB in the draft that they can win with.

You can’t say Carr is better than his record because of injuries and in next breath say Rattler hasn’t shown anything, while dealing with same depth issues.

Then I guess it's a good thing that I never did that. Win loss record has nothing to do with my impression of Carr or Rattler. I think Carr gives the Saints a better chance to win based on how they both have played this past season.

I only mentioned the win loss records to point out that the Saints have won with Carr and they have not won with Rattler, so if win-loss is your metric, then it's irrational to want Rattler over Carr.

When you have to start using double standards and making excuses because your criteria leads to a different conclusion than you've drawn, then you aren't using rational logic. You are rationalizing a belief you already have.

I would make 100% argument that Rattler gives the team a better chance to win based on demeanour alone. Even if it’s just for a year, no matter what happens, this Saints team will be better off in 2026 if we start Rattler or someone other than Carr. It will provide clarity and perspective.

I think demeanor is very over rated and it's completely subjective. Some of the QB's with the highest amount of "moxie" have had the least success which is why I think it's very overrated.

Look, you've clearly stated your opinion, just like everyone else has. I'm pretty sure Moore doesn't care about our opinions. If he wants Carr, he'll keep him. If he keeps Carr, it's because he wants Carr. The same is true for which ever QB he decides to go with.

I can’t stress this enough, we need to stop being in denial, the playoff window is CLOSED...

It's delusional to think that anyone can know that right now. Based on everything Moore and Loomis have said, it appears they disagree with you. I guess the Saints are in denial too?