China/Taiwan fight. (1 Viewer)

I just hope this doesn't cause an itchy trigger finger from any of the 3 antagonists.
Agree, but there is only one antagonist, and they are trying really hard to force someone else to use that itchy trigger finger first.
 
I've read why she was going visit Taiwan, I still don't understand it. Granted I've had no attention on matters of SE Asia, so maybe there's some justification. I guess the answer to this could dive into a political rat hole. The White House advised her not to go, but still she went. I guess I'll have to do more research on this, or just accept she went there for political reasons that I won't understand.
 

I really feel like China knows the US has no desire to change the status quo. I really feel like the US knows China does not want to change the status quo right now. I really feel like Australia and Japan do not want to change the status quo right now.

So right now is basically a dick measuring contest and Pelosi is winning. I really don't like the woman but it's pretty comical watching the overreaction to her visit. She's trolling China all by herself.
 
I mean, a whole envoy of Congresspersons, led by female Senator Tammy Duckworth, went to Taiwan like three months ago and nobody gave a sheet.

Are they seriously that bent that Nancy Pelosi went?

 
They are really trying to provoke a reaction, aren't they? I think as long as piloted craft, air and sea, stay away from Taiwans coasts and airspace, Taiwan won't respond....at least I hope so.
I don't think Taiwan will respond militarily against Chinese incursions, unless China actually sends fighter jets directly over one of their biggest cities or have some of their squadron vessels kind of hug but not get too close into the harbors or ports of Taipei or elsewhere. Their trying to annoy the hell out of the Taiwanese, US, other major East Asia allied nations that a hot-headed, or impulsive stupid Taiwanese aircraft or naval submarine boat attacks them sort of akin to how NVA SUPPOSEDLY attacked two American ships in the Gulf of Tonkin in summer of 1964 when in actuality, those NVA submarine boats didnt fire on either one of our ships. Their trying to push Taiwan or test their patience long enough to get them to react in a way they can claim is provocative, but also win over enough international support that the reaction sort of limits Biden's response from his NATO/East Asian allies, it has to look and seem enough like their in the right because if there's one thing the Chinese have learned observing the Russian quagmire/debacle in Ukraine: don't invade a country using stupid, idiotic and asinine reasons like denazifying and demilitarizing when Ukraine didnt even come close to attacking you.

What concerns me is Chinese military may concoct some elaborate, fantastical pretext like the Japanese did with the Marco Polo Bridge incident in 1931 which essentially began Japan's invasion of Manchuria and its near-15 year long series of attacks, incursions, invasions and conquests in Eastern and Southeastern Asia and most of the Pacific region or what Hitler's SD, led by Reinhardt Heinrich, faked an attack on a Polish/German border radio station using dead Jewish concentration camp victims, dressed up as Polish soldiers and having Wehrmacht/SS soldiers led by Alfred Neujocks, attack, beat up, harass and send out a barely-heard, understandable pre-written message in Polish. Neujocks men were wearing second-hand, laughably ridiculous Polish uniforms during their "attack". It was actually a terribly executed black-ops, " false-flag operation but it satisfied Hitler's demands or perceptions to justify back to the German people(and maybe some in the international community) that the Poles were the aggressors and he was justified in invading Poland on September 1st, 1939.
 
I just hope this doesn't cause an itchy trigger finger from any of the 3 antagonists.
What concerns me or troubles me is that like the Ukrainians before them, Taiwan, USA, and likely the Japanese aren't going to give China an itchy fingers to fire at or attack them in any way that Chinese will claim some type of moral high ground and use it to sway international opinion/NATO/EU that Taiwan isn't a hill or a battlefield the USA, or UN, or NATO or G7 is worth dying on or taking the world to the brink of nuclear WWIII Armageddon? I suspect, deep down, and I hate to say this, but I think China's political and military leaders know that despite Biden administration's warnings and strident vows to protect Taiwanese independence, if push really, REALLY came to shove and Biden's facing a Asian version of the Cuban Missile Crisis, I think in the end Biden backs down because this nation is war-weary after two decades in Afghanistan and Iraq, ultimately with mixed results. Im concerned the Chinese will try some elaborate pretext or forego any pretensions and not even try to justify their invasion saying Taiwan is a long-disputed breakaway province and we're just solving a problem to our territorial sovereignty. They won't even try to provide an attempt at a reason like Russia did invading Ukraine.

The Chinese will simply rhetorically pose this question to Biden: Is Taiwan worth an armed, military conflict that will likely go nuclear and I know Biden means well, but I don't see him being able to make that sort of risky sacrifice.
 
I mean, a whole envoy of Congresspersons, led by female Senator Tammy Duckworth, went to Taiwan like three months ago and nobody gave a sheet.

Are they seriously that bent that Nancy Pelosi went?

She's the speaker of the House and one of the most well-known, longest serving politicians in Washington, not one of a few obscure Congressman/women, or some second-tier U.S. Senator who hasn't served or been in the forefront of US domestic/foreign policies for the past 30 years.

If someone like Sen. Mike Lee of (R) Utah landed in Taipei and gave a similar, rousing speech that touched on US's commitment to defend Taiwan and its over 70-year alliance, it'd likely not be taken too seriously because Lee's not that important or crucial, Pelosi matters, and her views, matter a whole hell a lot more to the Chinese even if she was told or lectured by Biden's State Department not to beforehand.
 

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