clinton will be unleashing her claws (1 Viewer)

[SaintsFan11]

I don't think Hillary has run as bad a campaign as she's been accused of. I just think she's gotten hit by a buzzsaw, that's probably more about the mood of the nation than it is about policy or anything like that.

I strongly disagree. Even supposing that you credit Obama's rise totally and completely to his political acumen, her campaign had no strategy to deal with a serious challenger and even when all signs pointed to a long and protracted battle, her campaign still believed it would be over by February 5th.

The fact that they didn't even challenge Obama in 9 out of the past 10 states is proof that her campaign has been poorly run. The win in Wisconsin last night was Obama's closest win since Super Tuesday and it was over 15 points. It wouldn't have taken a whole lot just to hold him to a ten point victory in many of these states and that would have significantly reduced his delegate lead.

And then you have her campaign only recently discovering the rules of the Texas primary which put her at a serious disadvantage.

 

[Shawn]

I strongly disagree. Even supposing that you credit Obama's rise totally and completely to his political acumen, her campaign had no strategy to deal with a serious challenger and even when all signs pointed to a long and protracted battle, her campaign still believed it would be over by February 5th.

The fact that they didn't even challenge Obama in 9 out of the past 10 states is proof that her campaign has been poorly run. The win in Wisconsin last night was Obama's closest win since Super Tuesday and it was over 15 points. It wouldn't have taken a whole lot just to hold him to a ten point victory in many of these states and that would have significantly reduced his delegate lead.

And then you have her campaign only recently discovering the rules of the Texas primary which put her at a serious disadvantage.

I don't know much of anything about the nuts and bolts of the primaries, so I guess I'm more addressing the general way she's conducted herself. She's had a few gaffes, but I really expected her to lose her composure at some point, and she hasn't really done that.

So I may be completely off base.

On the other hand, while I always knew Obama had more support than he was being credited for, I really didn't foresee anything remotely approaching what we've seen.

I think the moment that I really started to pay attention to Obama was after Australia's prime minister accused Obama of wanting to remove troops from Iraq and just cede the war to the terrorists. If you recall, when he was asked to respond by a reporter, Obama said (my paraphrase), "If Mr. Howard feels so strongly about the situation in Iraq, maybe he should put his money where his mouth is and send more than the 1500 troops he currently has over there." It was a pretty masterful response, I thought.

 

[LSSpam]

I strongly disagree. Even supposing that you credit Obama's rise totally and completely to his political acumen, her campaign had no strategy to deal with a serious challenger and even when all signs pointed to a long and protracted battle, her campaign still believed it would be over by February 5th.

The fact that they didn't even challenge Obama in 9 out of the past 10 states is proof that her campaign has been poorly run. The win in Wisconsin last night was Obama's closest win since Super Tuesday and it was over 15 points. It wouldn't have taken a whole lot just to hold him to a ten point victory in many of these states and that would have significantly reduced his delegate lead.

And then you have her campaign only recently discovering the rules of the Texas primary which put her at a serious disadvantage.

Her strategy made plenty of sense when it was put into place. Her strength was her entrenchment in the party hierarchy and her organization. She decided to only put modest effort in the smaller primaries and let the field shake itself out and then win Super Tuesday on the strength of her organization/recognition as front runner.

It wasn't a "bad" plan. Super Tuesday overwhelms every candidate. She had a clear, clear advantage over the rest of the field by virtue of her connections to party operators in all of the States. She knew no one could cover the entire Super Tuesday field and banked on her entrenchment and front-runner status to win.


So how did it fail? Well for one Obama and Edwards tag-teamed her pretty good leading up to it chipping away at her front-runner status. Then Edwards pulled out prior to Super Tuesday which kept it from a 3-way split to a 2-way split. It nullified a lot of her advantages. Combined with Obama's building momentum and Obama had enough grass roots "umph" to get through Super Tuesday. He's rolled since then.


It didn't work but it wasn't an inherently bad strategy.

 

[DMaestro]

Easy to please and easy to lose. The problem is "excitement" only works in two directions. Up or down. If he isn't building excitement up, he's losing it. And then all you're left with are your normal election voters, middle class whites, working class whites/blacks, and old people. The under 30 crowd...they just don't win elections.

So you wonder, well I wonder, if Obama might not be "peaking" a little too soon. I just don't see this level of excitement, and therefore participation, carrying on indefinitely for the bulk of his campaign without it "flying off the handle" so to speak.

The way I see it, he's a young, charismatic, handsome black candidate. His novelty won't wear off until after he's been in the White House a few months. By a show of hands: how many of us thought we would see such a candidate in our lifetimes? Now multiply that surprise by a factor of 10 for the fanatic crowd. They'll be around for a while.

No, I don't worry about his excitement level wearing down during the general election. I'm more worried about the backlash against him should he actually win the presidency and not cause the sky to rain gold. Being that I actually like the guy, part of me hopes he doesn't win. The next president will be stepping into a mess. Electing Obama would be viewed by many as a leap of faith. If he doesn't exceed expectations, I don't see him being re-elected. I'd almost rather one of these political greybeards take the heat.

 

[LSSpam]

The way I see it, he's a young, charismatic, handsome black candidate. His novelty won't wear off until after he's been in the White House a few months. By a show of hands: how many of us thought we would see such a candidate in our lifetimes? Now multiply that surprise by a factor of 10 for the fanatic crowd. They'll be around for a while.

No, I don't worry about his excitement level wearing down during the general election. I'm more worried about the backlash against him should he actually win the presidency and not cause the sky to rain gold. Being that I actually like the guy, part of me hopes he doesn't win. The next president will be stepping into a mess. Electing Obama would be viewed by many as a leap of faith. If he doesn't exceed expectations, I don't see him being re-elected. I'd almost rather one of these political greybeards take the heat.

Interesting way to look at it.

We need some old people in here to tell us about the Kennedy campaign. That seems like the strongest analogy thus far (with Catholicism doing the stand-in for being black)

 

[RJ in Lafayette]

Hillary has nothing to lose. She has to take every shot at Obama she can. Obama' winning streak is now 10 states, and she--for me surprisingly--was mauled last night in Wisconsin where the demographics favored her more than Obama. She now not only has to win in Ohio and Texas, but has to win by substantial margins so that she can argue that Obama's popularity has peaked and is waning. If Obama keeps it close in the two states, the delegate count will be evenly split, and he can claim victory because Hillary needs a breakthrough. She has suffered too many losses by large margins.

 

[JimEverett]

Another aspect to this:

If Clinton goes negative at this point - hardcore negative - she is threatening any stature she has within the Party, both in general and in Congress.
I mean going negative pre-South Carolina hurt her, but that was primarily because of the racial content. If she had gone negative at that point on something other than race then that was one thing. To go negative now that the race is practically over is quite another.

I wonder what party leader is going to be the first to call her and tell her to wrap it up. I think she would be wise to listen to whoever it is.

 

[Shawn]

Another aspect to this:

If Clinton goes negative at this point - hardcore negative - she is threatening any stature she has within the Party, both in general and in Congress.
I mean going negative pre-South Carolina hurt her, but that was primarily because of the racial content. If she had gone negative at that point on something other than race then that was one thing. To go negative now that the race is practically over is quite another.

I wonder what party leader is going to be the first to call her and tell her to wrap it up. I think she would be wise to listen to whoever it is.

As SaintsFan11 pointed out--and I hadn't thought of it this way--she still stands to come out of this an even more powerful figure than when she went in. Taking the long view would be a wise move. If she plays her cards right, she might still be very well positioned for a run in 4 years.

 

[champ76]

The way I see it, he's a young, charismatic, handsome black candidate. His novelty won't wear off until after he's been in the White House a few months. By a show of hands: how many of us thought we would see such a candidate in our lifetimes? Now multiply that surprise by a factor of 10 for the fanatic crowd. They'll be around for a while.

No, I don't worry about his excitement level wearing down during the general election. I'm more worried about the backlash against him should he actually win the presidency and not cause the sky to rain gold. Being that I actually like the guy, part of me hopes he doesn't win. The next president will be stepping into a mess. Electing Obama would be viewed by many as a leap of faith. If he doesn't exceed expectations, I don't see him being re-elected. I'd almost rather one of these political greybeards take the heat.

Quite honestly, every president steps into a mess. I'm not sure why anyone wants the job. But am I the only person who doesn't get this Obama thing? I watch his acceptance speeches, I listen to his stump speeches, I watch portions of the debates. I don't get the hype. I admit I didn't start paying close attention until he had been hyped a great deal, so maybe I was expecting more. There isn't much there yet in the way of substance(change- well, change to what?). And I haven't been blown away by the style either. I could listen to Mario Cuomo all day long yet I didn't agree with much of what he said. Obama doesn't come close to his oratorical skills, yet the press swoons. I just don't get it. :dunno:

 

[LSSpam]

Quite honestly, every president steps into a mess. I'm not sure why anyone wants the job. But am I the only person who doesn't get this Obama thing? I watch his acceptance speeches, I listen to his stump speeches, I watch portions of the debates. I don't get the hype. I admit I didn't start paying close attention until he had been hyped a great deal, so maybe I was expecting more. There isn't much there yet in the way of substance(change- well, change to what?). And I haven't been blown away by the style either. I could listen to Mario Cuomo all day long yet I didn't agree with much of what he said. Obama doesn't come close to his oratorical skills, yet the press swoons. I just don't get it. :dunno:

He's pretty damn good. He's gotten too long-winded lately though and it's diluting the effect, in my opinion.

 

[DMaestro]

Quite honestly, every president steps into a mess.

Bush, Jr. didn't......

 

[champ76]

Bush, Jr. didn't......

North Korean nukes, Iranian nukes, a boiling Islamist cauldron, Oil for Food payola, increasing Russian nationalism, tinpot dictators in South America, a green light on the southern border with Mexico, unresolved Kosovo conflict, a growing Social Security deficit, etc. Then, eight months after taking office, 9/11. That's plenty of mess in my book.

 

[TPS]

>>This suprises you?



>>Bush, Jr. didn't......

While you are pretty much right (not to discount some problems), we're facing major issues with an expensive war, a tanking dollar, continued transitioning to a global economy, potential economic disaster due to real estate, subprime, ratings agencies (and on down the line of dominos) that will likey take years to emerge from. It's quite possible that whomever gets elected ends up being a one term president because they'll get bashed over the head like Carter did with a "Are you better off than you were 4 years ago" message which may well be a resounding NO. The Bush Administration is one administration you can actually pin a lot of the economy on because they had Congress and got their way for their favorite corporate sectors, hit the middle class over the head and allowed the dollar to free-fall.

TPS

 

[LSSpam]

Bush, Jr. didn't......

He pretty much stepped into the circumstances leading to and creating 9/11. That was a big o pile of doo-doo to just dismiss off-hand.

 

[champ76]

>>This suprises you?



>>Bush, Jr. didn't......

While you are pretty much right (not to discount some problems), we're facing major issues with an expensive war, a tanking dollar, continued transitioning to a global economy, potential economic disaster due to real estate, subprime, ratings agencies (and on down the line of dominos) that will likey take years to emerge from. It's quite possible that whomever gets elected ends up being a one term president because they'll get bashed over the head like Carter did with a "Are you better off than you were 4 years ago" message which may well be a resounding NO. The Bush Administration is one administration you can actually pin a lot of the economy on because they had Congress and got their way for their favorite corporate sectors, hit the middle class over the head and allowed the dollar to free-fall.

TPS

Steve, I think the Bush administration would be happy if people "pinned" the economy on them. Other than the brief recession immediately following 9/11, the country has been on an amazingly good economic run, which as we all know, will eventually go south for awhile before beginning its climb again. I am not sure at this point how much fault for the subprime mess can be put on the administration, but it's a problem that is going to haunt the next president.