COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.] (1 Viewer)

[bigdaddysaints]

Does anyone know why this variant seems to be unaffected by the vaccine? I haven't really looked at the numbers, but it seems like everyone will catch this thing within the next week or two (or you won't get it at all). Hopefully, this could really kick he virus in the nuts as there will be no one else to infect!

unaffected in what way? I think the numbers are clear that most of the ones admitted to the hospital are the ones who do not have the vaccine.

 

[guidomerkinsrules]

I want to see some bigger, more diverse peer reviewed studies before rolling with this as fact. However, that is right in line with what I was guessing a few weeks ago.

If true Omicron is less deadly than the flu and for the vaccinated probably in line with the common cold. At least in a per case accounting. Omicron is also crazy contagious so it can still cause a lot of problems with so many impacted at once.

this has been my experience - just found out last night that i had/have it - symptoms started showing up Saturday
thought it was just a bad cold
(2x vaxx and oddly enough had already scheduled my booster for tomorrow)

 

[bclemms]

this has been my experience - just found out last night that i had/have it - symptoms started showing up Saturday
thought it was just a bad cold
(2x vaxx and oddly enough had already scheduled my booster for tomorrow)

I’d postpone the booster for at least a few months. I could get my second booster but have put any plans on hold indefinitely. Also keeping my kids at single Phizer shot. A lot of data is pointing towards more risk (rare) for second shot in children (particularly males) than the threat Omicron presents.



Yeah, I know so many with and other than one random death from an unvaxxed person (may have been Delta) everyone is complaining of very mild symptoms. The average sinus infection I get was worse than Omicron for me and my family as well. It’s so different than a year ago.

 

[SaintInBucLand]

I’d postpone the booster for at least a few months. I could get my second booster but have put any plans on hold indefinitely. Also keeping my kids at single Phizer shot. A lot of data is pointing towards more risk (rare) for second shot in children (particularly males) than the threat Omicron presents.

Recently read a story out of the UK where many health professionals are suggesting suspending vaccines to children ages 12-18. Will see if I can find it.

Did run across this story in the Atlantic.

Should Teen Boys Get Boosted?

Third shots for adolescent boys and young men were already a hard sell. Then came Omicron.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[nolaswede]

unaffected in what way? I think the numbers are clear that most of the ones admitted to the hospital are the ones who do not have the vaccine.

One important thing that is not talked about when it comes to hospitalization, IMO, is that pool of unvaccinated people is way smaller than vaccinated. I believe that in Orleans parish, about 80% of 18 and over are vaccinated. So for example, if 75% of the people that are currently hospitalized are unvaccinated, that’s a pretty huge number since it’s a pretty small pool to pick from.

I never hear anyone talk about this when comparing the numbers!

 

[bclemms]

Recently read a story out of the UK where many health professionals are suggesting suspending vaccines to children ages 12-18. Will see if I can find it.

Did run across this story in the Atlantic.

Should Teen Boys Get Boosted?

Third shots for adolescent boys and young men were already a hard sell. Then came Omicron.

www.theatlantic.com

I agree with them. The vaccine doesn’t really prevent transmission only prevents severe illness which just isn’t really a threat. Vaccine does increase myocarditis for male adolescents at a disproportionate rate, particularly shots 2 and 3.

6 months ago it took more risk off the table than it presented.

For people 30+ that is still true.

 

[St. Widge]

I know Lousiana hit another record today when it comes to cases, but what about New Orleans? What site do y’all use to see the different +- cases for each parish? Since the cities seemed to get it first, hopefully New Orleans has already reached it’s peak, or within a day or two.

Check out Jeff Asher (@crimealytics) on Twitter. He has the best numbers for New Orleans specific.

 

[Arathrael]

I agree with them. The vaccine doesn’t really prevent transmission only prevents severe illness which just isn’t really a threat. Vaccine does increase myocarditis for male adolescents at a disproportionate rate, particularly shots 2 and 3.

6 months ago it took more risk off the table than it presented.

For people 30+ that is still true.

I don't agree with them. Vaccination does help prevent transmission, since it reduces the risk of being infected in the first place, and if you're not infected, you're not infectious. Additionally, Covid-19 itself has a substantially higher risk of myocarditis, and that also tends to present itself more seriously than the rarer vaccine-associated myocarditis.

So, assuming the risk of exposure to Covid is substantial, then vaccination offers an overall reduction in the risk, and potential severity, of myocarditis. Plus the indications are that it reduces the risk, and severity, of long Covid, etc.

 

[SWJJ]

That's an excellent point. I would love (and I know this

I don't agree with them. Vaccination does help prevent transmission, since it reduces the risk of being infected in the first place, and if you're not infected, you're not infectious. Additionally, Covid-19 itself has a substantially higher risk of myocarditis, and that also tends to present itself more seriously than the rarer vaccine-associated myocarditis.

So, assuming the risk of exposure to Covid is substantial, then vaccination offers an overall reduction in the risk, and potential severity, of myocarditis. Plus the indications are that it reduces the risk, and severity, of long Covid, etc.

Then there is the viral load aspect.

Viral load has a huge impact on transmission, and vaccinated people who get the virus will have a much lower viral load.

So while the vaccine doesn't prevent you from transmitting the virus, it absolutely makes you a less effective transmitter when infected, by the same mechanisms that make your severity of disease symptoms much lower.

 

[Saint_Ward]

I’d postpone the booster for at least a few months. I could get my second booster but have put any plans on hold indefinitely. Also keeping my kids at single Phizer shot. A lot of data is pointing towards more risk (rare) for second shot in children (particularly males) than the threat Omicron presents.



Yeah, I know so many with and other than one random death from an unvaxxed person (may have been Delta) everyone is complaining of very mild symptoms. The average sinus infection I get was worse than Omicron for me and my family as well. It’s so different than a year ago.

If you're talking about myocarditis, IIRC, the data doesn't really show the Pfizer vaccine being a risk, but the Moderna one is a slight risk (and I think the J&J one, but that one isn't a great vaccine to me anyway). Moderna. I think the booster was the significant (still small) risk. I know I posted the charts somewhere.

I told my 20 yr old, if he got a booster, get the Pfizer, not moderna.

 

[Saint_Ward]

@bclemms here's the post. But, I will say this, especially if they're younger and being smart enough about it all, delaying the 2nd shot for the boys, while waiting a little more data isn't a bad plan.

Are you willing to get the Covid vaccine when offered?

Viral load is a big one. Vaccinated individuals will generally have a much lower viral load(meaning less virus replication in their bodies).Which is why mask wearing is so beneficial. It significantly reduces viral load of wearer and when all are masked, viral loads are dramatically reduced...

saintsreport.com

 

[Saint_Ward]

That's an excellent point. I would love (and I know this

Then there is the viral load aspect.

Viral load has a huge impact on transmission, and vaccinated people who get the virus will have a much lower viral load.

So while the vaccine doesn't prevent you from transmitting the virus, it absolutely makes you a less effective transmitter when infected, by the same mechanisms that make your severity of disease symptoms much lower.

CDC data is a bit lagging but a fully vaccinated person is 4-8 times less likely to catch covid. That data is up to the end of Nov. Other sites have more recent. I just need to look.

However, is the case rate lower due to immune response and/or being less infectious? Or is it lower due to vaccinated people are also more likely to mask up, take precautions, etc?

 

[DaveXA]

CDC data is a bit lagging but a fully vaccinated person is 4-8 times less likely to catch covid. That data is up to the end of Nov. Other sites have more recent. I just need to look.

However, is the case rate lower due to immune response and/or being less infectious? Or is it lower due to vaccinated people are also more likely to mask up, take precautions, etc?

I'd say all of the above.

 

[Saint_Ward]

I'd say all of the above.

As a scientist of sorts, I'd say we can't specify, only speculate, or get more granular data. Ethically, you can't run the type of controlled test to adequately measure it.

 

[bclemms]

I don't agree with them. Vaccination does help prevent transmission, since it reduces the risk of being infected in the first place, and if you're not infected, you're not infectious. Additionally, Covid-19 itself has a substantially higher risk of myocarditis, and that also tends to present itself more seriously than the rarer vaccine-associated myocarditis.

So, assuming the risk of exposure to Covid is substantial, then vaccination offers an overall reduction in the risk, and potential severity, of myocarditis. Plus the indications are that it reduces the risk, and severity, of long Covid, etc.

Im strictly speaking for males under the age of 18 with 2 or 3 shots.

Your myocarditis data is working on the assumption that Omicron is the same as Delta and I’m working under the assumption they are very different.

The vaccine does not prevent infection of Omicron or at least it’s not even close to good at doing it. Yes, it may reduce the risk of death or severe illness but in children that risk is proving to be close to non-existent and a single shot is showing to add to that effectiveness while also having a greatly reduced risk of myocarditis compared to after a second shot. Recent data coming out of several places have shown this to be the case. Like all data, I consider it a single source but It’s enough to make me hit the pause button out of an abundance of caution.

I'm not advocating against the vaccine. Quite frankly, I think it matters very little at this point in children one way or the other. I might even go a step farther and say that we are overusing vaccines and would be better off going against boosters except in people of higher risk like those that are 40+ with preexisting while working to get undervaccinated countries going with at least single shots. I think we'll find it better to take a break from vaccines while Omicron is dominating and begin coming up for a plan to quickly reintroduce vaccines in the event a different strain comes knocking.

Omicron is the endimic version of covid we have been hoping for. The back side of this wave is going to result in a long down period with low case numbers. It appears that we have already started hitting that peak. Why are we trying to boost antibodies when half the country just had a fresh case of Omicron and we are headed for a big trough in cases against a strain that is proving to be significantly less severe?