COVID-19 Outbreak Information Updates (Reboot) [over 150.000,000 US cases (est.), 6,422,520 US hospitilizations, 1,148,691 US deaths.] (3 Viewers)

The last few days, I've gone without a mask in public more often than not, but I still have yet to be able to bring myself to not wear it at school. At this point, it's just a mental thing.
I’ve had perfect attendance the last two weeks. So, for now at least I’m going to enjoy the no masking for a bit. If numbers start heading back up I’ll probably go back, but for now, no more masking and enjoying the pollen fest (a good reason to wear an n95).
 
Hitler forked up the swastika, Putin forked up the letter Z, I'm more than happy that Corona didn't fork up Pi.

I don't have much affinity for Pi. It's narcissistic, just rambling on and on and on and on about itself.
 



Obviously, it is important to see what the numbers will be like in the near future! However, if it will it lead to more like cold symptoms for most people, then I’m not really that worried. Guess it might change closer to late fall/Christmas!
 
Obviously, it is important to see what the numbers will be like in the near future! However, if it will it lead to more like cold symptoms for most people, then I’m not really that worried. Guess it might change closer to late fall/Christmas!

This goes way over my head obviously. I can't give scientific reasons. I can only report what I've read. I'm to the point
we'll be living with this virus for much longer,probably the rest of our lives. I pray I'm wrong.


The outbreak is most likely the "stealth omnicron" and not deltracron as I mentioned earlier. It's following the path of
the outbreak in Europe which is most likely the same variant.
 
I agree that the Virus will be around for a while. Just hope that it won’t get much worse than it is now!
 
The pandemic was worse than the official numbers show, and how much worse is now becoming more evident after two years.

A new study, based in part on statistical modeling, suggests the loss in lives was close to three times greater than the official data.

It is important to understand what happened and why in the greatest public health catastrophe since the 1918 influenza pandemic, which is estimated to have killed at least 50 million people.


The new study, peer-reviewed, was published Thursday in the Lancet medical journal and carried out at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

The research, examining the pandemic years 2020 and 2021, found that while the official death toll worldwide was 5.94 million due to covid-19, in fact 18.2 million people might have perished in the pandemic.

That estimate is similar to one reached by the Economist in ongoing research that uses different methods. Both studies suggest that the pandemic’s pain in lost lives has been undercounted because of a combination of factors, including neglected treatment for other ailments.


At the core of this is a measure of excess mortality, the difference between the observed numbers of deaths from all causes, and what would normally be expected over the same time period, absent the pandemic.

Although excess mortality is an estimate, it can help underscore the true scope of the catastrophe in lost lives, help scientists prepare for the next pandemic and pinpoint vulnerabilities in public health systems.

The official covid death toll undercounts for several reasons. Health-care systems often don’t list covid as a cause of death without a positive test — so, many who died were not counted as covid because they lacked a test.

According to the study, before tests were widely available, “many deaths due to COVID-19 among older individuals in high-income countries, particularly in long-term care facilities,” were not counted as covid.

Moreover, nearly 4 in 10 of the world’s deaths are unregistered, according to the World Health Organization; in Africa, only 10 percent of deaths are registered, compared to 98 percent in Europe and 91 percent in the Americas.

On top of this, covid so flooded health-care systems that many people who suffered other sicknesses could not get treatment and died. They might have survived were it not for the pandemic.

Taken all together, the new study declares, pandemic mortality “has been more devastating than the situation documented by official statistics.”…….

 
Europe's sudden spike is kind of weird. The only time I've seen something like this is Michigan this fall/winter when Delta was fading, and Omicron came roaring.

We've usually enjoyed 1-3 months troughs. This was like a couple days.

1647313178328.png


1647313224211.png

1647313291436.png

But France and Spain haven't followed suit.

1647313343859.png

Example of US.

1647313437765.png


Saw that only 44% of Americans are boosted. Of course, there is some error with those numbers, since a lot of people were counted as second doses, instead of boosters.
 
Europe's sudden spike is kind of weird. The only time I've seen something like this is Michigan this fall/winter when Delta was fading, and Omicron came roaring.

We've usually enjoyed 1-3 months troughs. This was like a couple days.

1647313178328.png


1647313224211.png

1647313291436.png

But France and Spain haven't followed suit.

1647313343859.png

Example of US.

1647313437765.png


Saw that only 44% of Americans are boosted. Of course, there is some error with those numbers, since a lot of people were counted as second doses, instead of boosters.
I think it's probably a combination of multiple things: BA.2 variant, relaxing restrictions, vaccine coverage (including potential waning effects), and possibly reinfections (where they're being counted).

So to take the UK:
  • The BA.2 variant is now dominant.
  • It varies slightly between England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, but we've ended or are ending pretty much all legal health measures (e.g. in England, there's no longer a legal requirement to self-isolate, it's just a guideline now), no masking requirements except in healthcare settings, and we're ending free lateral flow tests at the end of the month (which reminds me, I need to order more now... except I can't because there's none available, people stocking up in advance).
  • Booster uptake stalled (went from 0 to 60% of 12+population from October to January, only ~7% more since then).
  • We still haven't started vaccinating 5-11 year olds (it's supposedly going to be offered on an optional non-urgent basis from next month).
  • Recorded reinfections appear to be around 10% of cases.
  • Worth noting that the ONS survey indicates 98.4% of adults in England have antibodies (whether from vaccination or prior infection), and around 94% of 12-15 year olds and 74% of 8-11 year olds do too.
It'll be different combinations of those factors in different countries, but I'm not at all surprised to see the beginnings of another wave here. We couldn't do much more to encourage it. Hopefully it won't hit too hard.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong is demonstrating what happens if you don't have sufficient vaccination levels in your elderly population (click through for thread):

 

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