COVID-19 Outbreak (Update: More than 2.9M cases and 132,313 deaths in US) (10 Viewers)

[DCSaints_Fan]

Here's a trick. Copy this:

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

And use it to search google. Click the link there and you can read it for free.

Or

Cliff notes version the article:

"The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford. "

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said. The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February. The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta. "

" But the Oxford results would mean the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months. If the findings are confirmed by testing, then the current restrictions could be removed much sooner than ministers have indicated. Although some experts have shed doubt on the strength and length of the human immune response to the virus, Prof Gupta said the emerging evidence made her confident that humanity would build up herd immunity against Covid-19. "

They do not offer a link to the actual study.

im not buying it. The incbuation time of the virus is known to be about 1-2 weeks. If it was already circulating in mid January, you would have seen a surge of ARDS cases by early February that doctors could not explain. A random sample of the population would be interesting, however.

Edit: Also, as i think another poster mentioned - the Diamond Princess cruise ship had 20% infection. Roughly 50% did not present symptoms. Although cruises are notorious for spreading infections - for this type of infection which is airborne, probably not all that different for the general public. 20% infection rate, of which half have symptions, and roughly 20% of those will require hospitalization. So for the US 330 million * 20% = 66 million infections, 33 million symptomatic, 20% hospitalization means roughly 6 million hospitilizations. A 1.5% death rate amongst symptomatic cases would mean ~500,000 deaths. Thats probably worse case scenario.

 

[PurpleBlack&Gold]

im not buying it. The incuation action time of the virus is known to be about 1-2 weeks. If it was already circulating in mid January, you would have seen a surge of ARDS cases by early February that doctors could not explain. A random sample of the population would be interesting, however.

I keep seeing people on Facebook that think they had it here in Hawaii in late December or early January. I continue to tell them the hospitals would be overrun already if it had been circulating for that long.

We have very few ICU beds on Big Island .

 

[Super44]

This whole spreading has me concerned. It started in China from what we can tell say some time back in November ‘19. How has it spread throughout the world so quickly, IF it is truly a virus that is mostly communicable thru direct contact/close proximity with others?

i am no where nearly knowledgeable enough to understand how it has spread so quickly from its point of origin. It really blows my mind, how it has spread over the entire world and infected so many, in a short amount of time. I wish someone could explain in layman's terms how we got to this point. And now we are trying to distance ourselves from one another, when it has spread from a country so far removed. Something that just boggles my mind. Has it traveled thru the air, to other countries? Were there that many people from Wuhan that came into contact with so many others that contracted the virus and spread it globally? I just really have a difficult time comprehending. Thanks!

 

[DCSaints_Fan]

This whole spreading has me concerned. It started in China from what we can tell say some time back in November ‘19. How has it spread throughout the world so quickly, IF it is truly a virus that is mostly communicable thru direct contact/close proximity with others?

i am no where nearly knowledgeable enough to understand how it has spread so quickly from its point of origin. It really blows my mind, how it has spread over the entire world and infected so many, in a short amount of time. I wish someone could explain in layman's terms how we got to this point. And now we are trying to distance ourselves from one another, when it has spread from a country so far removed. Something that just boggles my mind. Has it traveled thru the air, to other countries? Were there that many people from Wuhan that came into contact with so many others that contracted the virus and spread it globally? I just really have a difficult time comprehending. Thanks!

A single cough from an infected individual can expel millions of copies of the virus (virions). https://www.livescience.com/3686-gross-science-cough-sneeze.html. these hang around in the air fairly well and can be breathed in quite easily.

Theoreitclaly speaking, even a single virion can be enough to cause infection https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/090313150254.htm

Add to that people coughing/sneezing into their hands, and touching public surfaces like door handles. Even before coronavirus hit, I've become almost Howard Hughes like and refuse to touch handles with my bare hands.

 

[Arathrael]

They do not offer a link to the actual study.

They actually do, it's the word 'modelling', which goes here. Not very obvious.

But off the top of my head I'm deeply skeptical of the findings. They've made some serious assumptions and those are amplified by what appears to be a fairly simple model.

Look at it this way: the UK is testing people with symptoms, mostly hospital admissions at this point. If we take the last five days, around 18% of those have been positive. That really doesn't seem to fit with the notion of 50% of the UK having been exposed to it, does it? Especially since that's a group that should be biased towards testing positive compared to the average member of the population.

Even allowing for the possibility that some of that group would have had it but no longer be testing positive for it, as that would be the minority of the group (as with the nature of exponential spread far more people would have had it recently than would have had it earlier) that wouldn't seem to account for the discrepancy.

Which means either the testing is missing large numbers of people, or the model is flawed. I don't think there's anything which supports the testing missing that many cases, so I'm going with flawed model.

 

[Goatman Saint]

There was a spike in pneumonia cases in California earlier this year. There was also a “flu” going around people were being assumed they had. I still am leaning to the fact it’s been circulating here, and people are finally putting the pieces together and such at a low level. When they tested the virus out of that nursing home in Washington they assumed it had been in the US six weeks. At least in California and Washington I agree with it.

 

[saintmdterps]

We are supposed to crack 90F tomorrow.

It's 46 and raining here. Again. Heavy rain last Friday, then again on Monday. Today--rain, and rain again Friday with highs in the low 60's. This continues a pattern in existence since last November of rain twice a week. My yard has been wet to saturated since last year. We're breeding this ****.

 

[saintmdterps]

There was a spike in pneumonia cases in California earlier this year. There was also a “flu” going around people were being assumed they had. I still am leaning to the fact it’s been circulating here, and people are finally putting the pieces together and such at a low level. When they tested the virus out of that nursing home in Washington they assumed it had been in the US six weeks. At least in California and Washington I agree with it.

It's been a horrible flu season here, and I wonder how many victims actually had COVID

 

[PurpleBlack&Gold]

This is fun. I forgot about Twelve Monkeys when I made my list of movies to watch for the lockdown. Here is a rather interesting take if you like conspiracy theories. It's quite a long video but I'm sure many of you have time.

 

[Goatman Saint]

About the attacks on Asians. I have seen it, I know it’s there. However, this sort of stuff goes on with every minority. I was and still am appalled at what I saw when I was with my very obviously Mexican friend in Vegas during the last election. She is very attractive and we were drinking and having fun. Some wonderful individual came up and started to off that I needed to keep to my own race. I just looked at her like what was that? That layer of decency that people hide behind gets removed very quick depending on cultural events. So, while some doubt, I have no doubts at all.

 

[Goatman Saint]

It's been a horrible flu season here, and I wonder how many victims actually had COVID

It was mid February I believe when my wife and I (spent lots of time in Bay Area with large conferences) had the weirdest cold. She had a hard dry cough which she never gets. Bit of a fever also. We both had weird smelling/taste sensations. Chest both hurt when walking. Nothing huge, but we both were talking about it. I was slightly behind her. I still wonder if that wasn’t it.

 

[Loose Cannon]

Look at it this way: the UK is testing people with symptoms, mostly hospital admissions at this point. If we take the last five days, around 18% of those have been positive. That really doesn't seem to fit with the notion of 50% of the UK having been exposed to it, does it?

Exactly. The whole thing is total nonsense. The only people being tested in most countries are the very most likely cases, and they're coming in at less than 1 in 5 of those being positive. I do think the numbers are much higher than the cases being reported, but they're nowhere near 50%. Maybe if you drop the a zero off of that number you're getting warmer.

 

[Loose Cannon]

Also, +rep to anyone who can find details around the income limits for the socialism checks they're giving out. I can't find anything on it yet, just that "high earners" won't get anything.

 

[Goatman Saint]

Also, +rep to anyone who can find details around the income limits for the socialism checks they're giving out. I can't find anything on it yet, just that "high earners" won't get anything.

House, Senate Coronavirus Relief Bills Offer Different Cash Payouts To Individuals

The Senate and House have both proposed bills that would provide immediate cash payments to most adult Americans. The amounts of the payments, however, differ greatly.

www.forbes.com

Best I can do. Just has the comparisons as of yesterday. However, I do like the little trick they are pulling. This is noting but an advance credit on your taxes. It’s not free money at all. Much like the Bush checks that were sent out, they will simply screw you over when you go to file your taxes in 2021. Look at the senate bill. The house bill was thrown out there just to get some negotiating leverage.

 

[bclemms]

Spain with 738 deaths in the last 24 hours. France, UK and USA deaths are about to really start jumping as healthcare systems in all 3 countries are on the verge of being overwhelmed.